Israel-Iran-Proxies Conflict

[crazyinsane105]

8 hours ago, Josh said:

The stipulations Zuk posted do seem more like a wish list/fantasy to me. We’ll see.

My point to him is that EU has been reluctant to even send troops to Ukraine. But somehow they will give two craps about Lebanon and send ground forces there? 

[seahawk]

13 hours ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

Lots have been discussed in Israeli media already so all I found was commentary articles without the full details. Here's the closest I could find.

https://www.axios.com/2024/10/30/israel-lebanon-war-biden-advisers-visit-peace-deal

The terms, generally speaking, are:

• Israel limits its ground incursion. Probably to the 1st or 2nd line of villages.
• Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) redeploy to southern Lebanon with some 5,000-10,000 troops.
• Inactive UNIFIL units replaced with battalions from Germany, UK, and France.
• LAF and UNIFIL will be in charge of removing Hezbollah assets from southern Lebanon. 
• Should they fail, Israel will have freedom to operate in Lebanon to do it itself.
• Arms siege will be laid upon Lebanon, from the ground, air, and sea. Russia is a likely candidate for controlling the border crossings, which IMO is quite stupid but ok.

 

EDIT: Found better Hebrew source.

https://www.ynet.co.il/news/article/yokra14131302

And who will provide the fairies and unicorns?

[Stuart Galbraith]

4 hours ago, crazyinsane105 said:

My point to him is that EU has been reluctant to even send troops to Ukraine. But somehow they will give two craps about Lebanon and send ground forces there? 

Did that in 82/83. I dont need to point out why we wont be doing it again.

[Mighty_Zuk]

4 hours ago, crazyinsane105 said:

My point to him is that EU has been reluctant to even send troops to Ukraine. But somehow they will give two craps about Lebanon and send ground forces there? 

I think the main failure here is to understand the difference between inquiry and agreement.

[Mighty_Zuk]

8 hours ago, Josh said:

IMO, there is no way anyone the international community is jumping on this grenade,Zuk. Not sure where that leaves the ceasefire, but you can safely count the U.S., Russia, China, and all of Europe as not getting involved, regardless of regional elections.

Am I the only one doing research before posting on this site?

C'mon this is extremely basic. Here, I'll hold your hand. Go to "Contributing Countries" section.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Interim_Force_in_Lebanon

[urbanoid]

22 minutes ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

Am I the only one doing research before posting on this site?

C'mon this is extremely basic. Here, I'll hold your hand. Go to "Contributing Countries" section.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Interim_Force_in_Lebanon

It's easier to gain social approval for involvement in 'UN stuff'. Also 'less social disapproval', as it happens mostly under the radar. During the 'major ongoing conflict'? Forget it.

[glenn239]

11 hours ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

First you say Israel can't destroy Hezbollah because drones will annihilate its ground forces (which never happened). And now you say Israel must destroy Hezbollah entirely at all costs.

Make up your mind.

Israel's objective will fail.  They cannot succeed unless they destroy Hezbollah, and Hezbollah cannot be destroyed by Israel, only damaged.

 

Quote

Because they'll be armed and trained, and are the majority and incredibly resentful toward Hezbollah.

The Lebanese will ally with Israel, will they?  We shall see.

[Josh]

2 hours ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

Am I the only one doing research before posting on this site?

C'mon this is extremely basic. Here, I'll hold your hand. Go to "Contributing Countries" section.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Interim_Force_in_Lebanon

You think the UN will be able to help in any substantial way? I thought you were calling for them to be pulled out?

Edited November 2, 2024 by Josh

[Josh]

1 hour ago, glenn239 said:

Israel's objective will fail.  They cannot succeed unless they destroy Hezbollah, and Hezbollah cannot be destroyed by Israel, only damaged.

I doubt Hezbollah is going anywhere but it seems equally unlikely it regains its prewar strength. Certainly not any time soon.

Edited November 2, 2024 by Josh

[Mighty_Zuk]

18 minutes ago, Josh said:

You think the UN will be able to help in any substantial way? I thought you were calling for them to be pulled out?

No I don't think the UN will help in any way, with or without increased manpower.

[crazyinsane105]

29 minutes ago, Josh said:

I doubt Hamas is going anywhere but it seems equally unlikely it regains its prewar strength. Certainly not any time soon.

Hamas can’t regain its prewar strength. Hezbullah can if Israel lets it guard down 

[Josh]

19 minutes ago, crazyinsane105 said:

Hamas can’t regain its prewar strength. Hezbullah can if Israel lets it guard down 

I meant Hezbollah, corrected. No I do not think they will without major investments from Iran that the country simply cannot afford. Also I question whether they can regrow their numbers after looking so ineffective and bringing so much destruction to Lebanon for no gain, especially if there ends up being a cease fire that does not involve Hamas. That would mean Lebanese involvement in the war was completely pointless on top of destroying entire neighborhoods.

 

Israel did not just destroy a huge amount of infrastructure and weapons; it wounded Hezbollah finances and morale.

[Mighty_Zuk]

AH-64 once again proving to be absolute kings of low altitude air defense.

 

 

Edited November 2, 2024 by Mighty_Zuk

[lucklucky]

Another angle, note it failed to destroy the drone in the air, maybe need proper ammunition.

https://streamable.com/in9n1d

Edited November 3, 2024 by lucklucky

[crazyinsane105]

Well this is a serious issue, as it seems like a reconciliation between Shia and Sunni extremist groups. 

[lucklucky]

So?   Al-Qaeda-Iran alliance.  

[crazyinsane105]

26 minutes ago, lucklucky said:

So?   Al-Qaeda-Iran alliance.  

More like the Sunni extremist elements in Lebanon won’t see Hezbullah as an enemy at this point, like they did before the Oct 7 war 

[crazyinsane105]

1 hour ago, lucklucky said:

Another angle, note it failed to destroy the drone in the air, maybe need proper ammunition.

https://streamable.com/in9n1d

Unsure what ammunition it can have to destroy a drone mid air. Aim-9 is the only AAM missile that Apache carries and that isn’t optimal one bit to take down a drone. 
 

I am surprised that the targeting system of the Apache is unable to lock on to a slow moving drone and take it down with cannon fire. 

[lucklucky]

I think Stingers are available but are the IR head would need able to discriminate such a small target. Still guns rounds are much cheaper and have less debris so i would use that , it just needs to be more precise. In this case the gun rounds have affected the propulsive system, but the warhead still went to explode on land.

Edited November 3, 2024 by lucklucky

[Mighty_Zuk]

3 hours ago, lucklucky said:

Another angle, note it failed to destroy the drone in the air, maybe need proper ammunition.

https://streamable.com/in9n1d

Wrong video? Yours shows the drone being shot down. 

Look at:

1. The black smoke in the air - that's a hit. 

2. The explosion on the ground at the end. That's job done.

[lucklucky]

15 minutes ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

Wrong video? Yours shows the drone being shot down. 

Look at:

1. The black smoke in the air - that's a hit. 

2. The explosion on the ground at the end. That's job done.

I did not say the drone was not shot down. I said it was not destroyed in the air.

In my opinion the explosion would be better to be in the air.

Edited November 3, 2024 by lucklucky

[Mighty_Zuk]

11 minutes ago, lucklucky said:

In my opinion the explosion would be better to be in the air.

Perhaps, but there's no real way around it without detonating something big near it, which then defeats the purpose of this chase.

The reason why these drones manage to penetrate deep into Israel quite often and fly for tens of minutes is because there aren't that many areas where it's safe to intercept.

[lucklucky]

7 hours ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

Perhaps, but there's no real way around it without detonating something big near it, which then defeats the purpose of this chase.

The reason why these drones manage to penetrate deep into Israel quite often and fly for tens of minutes is because there aren't that many areas where it's safe to intercept.

I think if Iron Dome  Trophy can explode a RPG/ATGM it should be possible to this with a 30mm gun with appropriate rounds.

Edited November 3, 2024 by lucklucky

[Mighty_Zuk]

3 hours ago, lucklucky said:

I think if Iron Dome can explode a RPG/ATGM it should be possible to this with a 30mm gun with appropriate rounds.

Tamir is a 90kg missile.

[bojan]

7 hours ago, lucklucky said:

I think Stingers are available but are the IR head would need able to discriminate such a small target.

They can. Engagement envelope is smaller, it is easier for seeker to lose track etc, but they most certainly can.