Israel-Iran-Proxies Conflict

[bojan]

8 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Is this the same Chinese that have been selling them clones of the Sam-2 missile system?

1. What they have been selling them in '80s and what they sell now are redically different things.

2. Iranian SAMs and radars were heavily based on US ones, developed from what they had from Shah. Their main domestic SAM (designation escapes me) is a parallel evolution to US naval Standard. How good are they... none knows, but good basics are there, and good basics, even if not fully up the date counts for a lot.

8 hours ago, crazyinsane105 said:

Ukrainians are using TPS American radars to guide their S-300 and Buk missiles.

That is not actually possible, my suspicion is that they are using them as a regimental level surveyance radar.

[glenn239]

Here's some photos of damage to Iranian facilities,

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cy7dkgz71x6o

What stands out is the fact that most of the buildings are intact.  Are the ample number of intact buildings evidence of selective IAF targeting, effective Iranian air defense work, or both?

[Josh]

7 hours ago, MiGG0 said:

It is combatant/civialr casualties ratio. Dont know about Grozny but if there were lot more civilian casualties combared to combatants, then yes it would be genoside aswell.

Oh, it is ratio and not intent? What is the golden ratio?

[Josh]

5 hours ago, crazyinsane105 said:

And the point I am making is that you are confident that IDF aircraft can now fly unrestricted over Iran. Which is a really long claim to make because it assumes none of these radars can be replaced quickly…yet they can. So unless there was a follow up strike that took place hours or even minutes after, I doubt IDF can fly over Iran without detection. There are just a bit too many radars at this point the Iranians have that is providing a bit of coverage 

This wasn’t the case back in 2008, but it is now. 

Honestly I think that refueling operations are far, far more limiting than Iranian SAMs. I suspect the vast majority of the 100+ IAF aircraft involved were just sanitizing the flight path for the strikers and tankers, and that the actual strike force was only a dozen or two aircraft.

[Josh]

5 hours ago, crazyinsane105 said:

They used ALBMs, something Iran doesn’t have a defense against. I doubt anybody believed they would. 
 

The IDF didn’t fly a single sortie over Iranian soil though, unlike in all other strikes since Oct 7. Had they flown a sortie over Iran and dropped a shit ton of JDAMs and flew back without any losses, that would be a significant issue for the Iranians no doubt. But for some reason that didn’t happen 

I suspect it would take little effort for the IAF to drop glide bombs on Iranian oil infrastructure in the west, from the SAM sites already hit down to Kharg island. I think the Biden administration put the kibosh on that if they still want a steady supply of free US weapons. I think that could possibly change post election, when it could be blamed on Biden but Kamala could officially adopt a “different “ policy after Israel handles whatever it wants to handle. Or Trump, for that matter: Biden will not be remembered for his last three months. I think Israel will have a window to do whatever it wants.

[Josh]

4 hours ago, MiGG0 said:

Yes I do. Fighting terrorist like terrorist makes you... terrorist aswell. Or in this case fighting terrotist with genoside, makes you mass murdereds. Im sure there are plenty of people with excuses in history that try to justify their mass murders or genoside aswell. Question is are you one of those (not personally you, but in generall terms) or not?

Hamas and Hezbollah are effectively nation states. If they want to surrender, they can. They can stop firing rockets and they can give back whatever is left of hostages, if they care about their people. If they do not, then they are their people will continue to be a nation state at war with a superior power that will fight the war until favorable terms.

[Josh]

1 hour ago, glenn239 said:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_equipment_of_the_Islamic_Republic_of_Iran_Air_Defense_Force

Looks like a shit ton of SAM systems to me....

I’m not sure that makes the last air raids look better.

[Josh]

1 hour ago, glenn239 said:

Here's some photos of damage to Iranian facilities,

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cy7dkgz71x6o

What stands out is the fact that most of the buildings are intact.  Are the ample number of intact buildings evidence of selective IAF targeting, effective Iranian air defense work, or both?

Hard to say, but I think the number of destroyed shelters/buildings of the last two strikes favors Israel. That may not indicate absolute capability from either side, since they both seem to be going through a choreographed war for domestic consumption that involves military action without committing to anything open ended.

[MiGG0]

6 hours ago, R011 said:

Given that Israeli actions don't come close at all to what any reasonable person would call genocide, or even excessive, that's not very convincing.

Really? And thats why there is not case ongoing against Israel in ICJ and countries stopping to sell arms to them?

[MiGG0]

2 hours ago, Josh said:

Oh, it is ratio and not intent? What is the golden ratio?

It is ratio and number of casualties. You can have some with excuse of collerate danage but if it is tens of thousands, collerate casualties become genoside. That is exactly why  ICJ has statet that there is grounds for genoside case against Israel.

[R011]

28 minutes ago, MiGG0 said:

Really? And thats why there is not case ongoing against Israel in ICJ and countries stopping to sell arms to them?

Mostly anti Semitism, anti White bigotry asked as anti imperialism, and Western leftist self loathing. 

[Josh]

30 minutes ago, MiGG0 said:

It is ratio and number of casualties. You can have some with excuse of collerate danage but if it is tens of thousands, collerate casualties become genoside. That is exactly why  ICJ has statet that there is grounds for genoside case against Israel.

So give me a number. At what point does the belligerent party who started the war suffer genocide?

Most genocides were not know for the race involved killing thousands of victims and then when given the option to stop the war by turning the remaining victims over, reused.

IMO, to the extent here is a mass killing of Arabs occurring, it is by the hand of Hamas. It refuses to trade the lives or even the bodies of a hundred Israelis for all of Gaza.

Edited October 30, 2024 by Josh

[R011]

26 minutes ago, MiGG0 said:

It is ratio and number of casualties. You can have some with excuse of collerate danage but if it is tens of thousands, collerate casualties become genoside. That is exactly why  ICJ has statet that there is grounds for genoside case against Israel.

So under 20k out of over two million in a year when similar campaigns have been closed to 200k and others with similar death tolls have been in populations closer to the nine of fatalities?  Did the Nazis warn noncombatants to get out of the way before an operation?  Did they allow humanitarian aid?

If Israel is conducting genocide, they really bad at it.

[Josh]

I will say, I think Israel is a little heavy handed and Bibi in particular is a corruptive of shit that I think should die in a house fire. But Hamas is the government of Gaza, Oct 7th was 9/11 times ten for Israel, and the fact that Hamas still exists and still has hostages means Israel’s 9/11 is not over yet. Anytime Hamas wants the Gaza operations to stop, they can give up whatever is left of the hostages. Until that day, it’s not like the U.S. would not have exterminated the place if they were behind 9/11.

Edited October 30, 2024 by Josh

[MiGG0]

1 hour ago, Josh said:

So give me a number. At what point does the belligerent party who started the war suffer genocide?

Most genocides were not know for the race involved killing thousands of victims and then when given the option to stop the war by turning the remaining victims over, reused.

IMO, to the extent here is a mass killing of Arabs occurring, it is by the hand of Hamas. It refuses to trade the lives or even the bodies of a hundred Israelis for all of Gaza.

Number is up to ICJ ti deside. Tens of thousands civilian casualties nowdaya is not ”collerate damage” any more imo.

[MiGG0]

1 hour ago, R011 said:

Mostly anti Semitism, anti White bigotry asked as anti imperialism, and Western leftist self loathing. 

Ok, so anti genoside is anti semitism. Got it.

[MiGG0]

1 hour ago, R011 said:

So under 20k out of over two million in a year when similar campaigns have been closed to 200k and others with similar death tolls have been in populations closer to the nine of fatalities?  Did the Nazis warn noncombatants to get out of the way before an operation?  Did they allow humanitarian aid?

If Israel is conducting genocide, they really bad at it.

? Over 40k total casualties of which 50-90% are civilians. Whole genoside term was taken in use after WWII, but they did genoside. What nazis did does not make Israel innocent in anyway. Your point?

Edited October 30, 2024 by MiGG0

[Mighty_Zuk]

6 hours ago, glenn239 said:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_equipment_of_the_Islamic_Republic_of_Iran_Air_Defense_Force

Looks like a shit ton of SAM systems to me....

Of which there are very few systems that are relevant vs Israel. The vast majority of these are of the same capabilities as what Syria has, and we know Israel flies safely through Syria.

SAM batteries are only really dangerous to the IAF in the sense that long range munitions have little to no independent BDA capability so having one shot down raises issues.

9 hours ago, crazyinsane105 said:

The IDF didn’t fly a single sortie over Iranian soil though, unlike in all other strikes since Oct 7. Had they flown a sortie over Iran and dropped a shit ton of JDAMs and flew back without any losses, that would be a significant issue for the Iranians no doubt. But for some reason that didn’t happen 

You don't know for sure if IAF flew sorties directly above Iran. The leaked intel report, if it's not a PSYOP, suggests Israel's RA-01 drone can fly recon missions over Iran.

The F-35, of which Israel has ~40, can drop JDAMs on western Iran without aerial refueling, or fly recon missions over Tehran with no munitions. With refueling over Syria it could probably drop glide bombs on Iran's westernmost regions.

Yet you assert so confidently that it didn't.

5 hours ago, glenn239 said:

Here's some photos of damage to Iranian facilities,

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cy7dkgz71x6o

What stands out is the fact that most of the buildings are intact.  Are the ample number of intact buildings evidence of selective IAF targeting, effective Iranian air defense work, or both?

There is no reason to destroy an entire facility. Hitting just the bottleneck or the hardest to replace and substitute machinery, has some clear benefits.

If a site has 5 buildings. Building A takes 2 years to rebuild. Building B takes 1 year. And the rest take 3 months. So if I strike all of them or just A, it won't matter because it'd still take 2 years. So I didn't gain anything by targeting the smaller ones. But I did pay for the extra munitions and flew the extra planes.

[Josh]

10 minutes ago, MiGG0 said:

Number is up to ICJ ti deside. Tens of thousands civilian casualties nowdaya is not ”collerate damage” any more imo.

You fail to address what the number wound or Hamas role in creating that number by initiating the conflict and refusing to resolve it. And like it or not, Hamas is the government of Gaza, so Israel is at war with Gaza until Hamas says otherwise, not the other way around.

Edited October 30, 2024 by Josh

[MiGG0]

3 minutes ago, Josh said:

You fail to address what the number wound or Hamas role in creating that number by initiating the conflict and refusing to resolve it.

It is irrelevant in determining genoside because it is still Israel responsibility to protect civilians (so innocents) when they go after terrorist.

Edited October 30, 2024 by MiGG0

[Josh]

5 minutes ago, MiGG0 said:

? Over 40k total casualties of which 50-90% are civilians.

By Hamas counting. No one else is on the ground there. And will Hamas stop this war they started by surrendering hostages? Or are they simply happy to watch Gaza get leveled from one end to the other for their own benefit?

[Josh]

1 minute ago, MiGG0 said:

It is irrelevant in determining genoside because it is still Israel responsibility to protect civilians (so innocents) when they go after terrorist.

Gaza started a war with Israel, not the other way around. And the path to ending that war was made clear a year ago: return the hostages, living or dead. Until Gaza meets that demand for the war it started, it will continue to be a war zone.

[Mighty_Zuk]

@MiGG0 you here to troll or do you actually want to learn?

Because learning requires one to ask questions, not make baseless assertions. Time to face it - everything you wrote here in the past 24 hours was patently false.

Edited October 30, 2024 by Mighty_Zuk

[MiGG0]

2 hours ago, Josh said:

By Hamas counting. No one else is on the ground there. And will Hamas stop this war they started by surrendering hostages? Or are they simply happy to watch Gaza get leveled from one end to the other for their own benefit?

This number is what UN uses and probably will be used ICJ aswell. They consider it reliable enought.

[MiGG0]

2 hours ago, Josh said:

Gaza started a war with Israel, not the other way around. And the path to ending that war was made clear a year ago: return the hostages, living or dead. Until Gaza meets that demand for the war it started, it will continue to be a war zone.

Who started war is irrelevant. Responsibity for civilian casualties are for both but as Hamas is terrorist organization they are already ”outlawed” . As attacker Israel needs to protect pakestinian still.