Israel-Iran-Proxies Conflict

[Mighty_Zuk]

Nasrallah is confirmed dead.

 

29 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

I think this is madness. All you are going to do is start a regional war that the US is going to struggle to finish for you. And what is more with Trump, its entirely possible, considering he is no longer friends with Bibi, he will let you get on with it.

We were promised a regional war when we targeted Hezbollah. Where is that regional war?

Israel-Iran war is not regional. Regional means more parties, and Iran lost its proxies.

The dismantling of Hamas and Hezbollah, and the strike in Hodeidah, neutralized Iran's proxies and now it stands alone.

The US also won't struggle with anything. It let Israel stand completely on its own for a whole year, letting it take huge economical damage while dismantling 90% of Iran's capabilities, while the US did absolutely nothing.

With its huge economy and armed forces the US could finish this in a couple weeks, and what's left of Iran would take maybe a day or two. But it's fine throwing its allies to the wolves.

Now the US forfeited all leverage it had on Israel to contain itself, and therefore I believe Iran's oil infrastructure should be the next target.

[Stuart Galbraith]

I think it bears comparison to 1973. I think its like trying to complete destroy the armed forces of Jordan, when you really have the problem with the armed forces of Egypt.

As a distraction to keep Bibi in power, Im sure it will do excellent. As far as getting the hostages back, its pointless effort.

[WRW]

Sadly i think any live hostage recovery will be  rare

[Stuart Galbraith]

Which is why in the end, it has to be a deal. And im going to keep saying that. The idea they can destroy Hamas AND recover the hostages is absolute lunacy. You promise Hamas anything you like, you get out as many hostages as you can, and then renege and kill them.

This, grand tour around the middle east, turning it into a much bigger war, is lunacy. Ill keep saying that till someone hears that too.

[Mighty_Zuk]

40 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

think it bears comparison to 1973. I think its like trying to complete destroy the armed forces of Jordan, when you really have the problem with the armed forces of Egypt.

Really bad comparison. Jordan, Syria, Egypt and others, were all separate entities throughout the Israeli-Arab wars. The only shred of unity was each using one's attack as an opportunity to execute theirs.

Each was therefore a separate effort to defeat, deter, and convince to make peace.

 

The situation with Iran and its proxies is very different. 

All are inherently interconnected. Iran is the prime handler and financier of them all and is therefore the ultimate goal when it comes to securing Israel's long term peace and security. It threatens Israel with proxies and nuclear weapons. 

The former is via terrorist groups, that unlike states - must be dismantled somehow in order to be properly defeated. In Gaza that's an inherently invasive process because the vast majority of the population support terrorism and unable to create a grassroots political group that is non-terrorist.

In Lebanon that's almost an opposite case. There is overwhelming hatred toward Hezbollah, but the people are unarmed and thus have little capability to resist them on their own. But the prospects for an internal movement exist.

If left alone for now, Iran will simply restore both Hamas and Hezbollah and build more terrorist groups with more capabilities. It will also keep making baby steps toward a nuke until a weapon will be achieved. It has already passed several points of no return in its program. So at the very least the nuclear program must be hit hard.

If the regime is not to be hit like Hezbollah, then at least Iran's oil industry must be obliterated. 

Iran will continue putting in the resources until it destroys Israel, and we can't allow it to. 

Israel is having its 1967 moment right now. Attacked on all fronts, pushing everyone back, betrayed by its "allies", defense expenditure skyrockets while the people are starving, but it ultimately sets Israel's security up major success and long term stability (occupation of land contributed directly to peace with Egypt, Jordan).

There's a choice to be made by Israel:

1. Make a short stop to recover its economy but lose the legitimacy to kill Iranians.

2. Or keep pressing ahead to ensure Hezbollah's destroyed and head for Iran.

 

[Mighty_Zuk]

Just now, Stuart Galbraith said:

Which is why in the end, it has to be a deal. And im going to keep saying that. The idea they can destroy Hamas AND recover the hostages is absolute lunacy. You promise Hamas anything you like, you get out as many hostages as you can, and then renege and kill them.

This, grand tour around the middle east, turning it into a much bigger war, is lunacy. Ill keep saying that till someone hears that too.

Israel has exhausted most of its military options to pressure Hamas. The US could greatly assist but it has instead distanced itself completely from the region.

Regardless, Hezbollah and IRGC must be dismantled. But pressure on Iran can actually translate to pressure on Hamas. 

 

[Mighty_Zuk]

My personal assessment:

Now is time to relieve all reservists and let them go back to work and restore the economy. 

Israel must abandon all socialist policies to truly recover but that's a pipe dream. It won't happen until 2027 at the earliest. But Israelis must continue protesting to have the government dissolved.

Lebanese Christians and Druze must be invited to send thousands of representatives each, to be armed and trained in warfare by Israel, after which they shall return to Lebanon and start establishing their own militias to dismantle Hezbollah.

Israel must adopt a new stance to actively target enemy leadership at all times regardless of the state of hostilities.

Israel must adop the "Generals Plan" to occupy northern Gaza and expand the buffer zone further. Establish these as permanently occupied and non-negotiable. Should these fail to apply pressure, repeat this in Khan Younis.

UNRWA must be classified as a terrorist organization and its leadership be brought to Israel to stand trial for their role in October 7th.

[crazyinsane105]

Hezbollah confirmed the death of its longtime leader, Hassan Nasrallah, in an Israeli airstrike, a major escalation of Israel’s campaign against the Iran-backed group.

[Stuart Galbraith]

Deputy operations commander of the Quds force also.

[Tim the Tank Nut]

how is killing Nasrallah considered an escalation?  In what way would be considered "off limits"?  Nasrallah's comments have repeatedly cemented him as the driving force of current hostilities.

Israel's targeting of the enemy chain of command is exactly what needed to happen.  If Israel left enemy leadership intact it would be military malpractice and the usual suspects here would continue to complain about civilian casualties...

[Mighty_Zuk]

Conflicting reports about the munitions used.

Israeli media claims 83 munitions in total. 

Two OSINTers on Twitter say different things - Mk84 bombs, and GBU-28. It is possible it was a combination of these two along with others.

2 minutes ago, Tim the Tank Nut said:

how is killing Nasrallah considered an escalation?  In what way would be considered "off limits"?  Nasrallah's comments have repeatedly cemented him as the driving force of current hostilities.

Israel's targeting of the enemy chain of command is exactly what needed to happen.  If Israel left enemy leadership intact it would be military malpractice and the usual suspects here would continue to complain about civilian casualties...

I agree.

If a sufficient number of leaders are killed, at some point one will be appointed who prefers a ceasefire.

[Stuart Galbraith]

9 minutes ago, Tim the Tank Nut said:

how is killing Nasrallah considered an escalation?  In what way would be considered "off limits"?  Nasrallah's comments have repeatedly cemented him as the driving force of current hostilities.

Israel's targeting of the enemy chain of command is exactly what needed to happen.  If Israel left enemy leadership intact it would be military malpractice and the usual suspects here would continue to complain about civilian casualties...

Its an escalation, because its almost certainly going to bring Iran into the war in some fasion. Something the US has desperately been trying to avoid, because there is no way to defeat it.

Im perfectly happy to see him dead. But his death plays no part in the ultimate solution of this war, which is Gaza and the Hostages. Unless they think isolating Gaza means they will capitulate, which I doubt, but even were it true, it means the complete destruction of Hezbollah, the Iranians in Syria, AND the defeat of Iran. This is akin to Kissingers desperate strategy to defeat the Vietnamese in Cambodia and Laos to achieve a success of the Vietnam war. Escalate to deescalate has a long proud history of not working.

If its not getting the hostages back, then its a distraction. And if its a distraction, its purely to keep Nethanyahu in power. I want the hostages back and the war to end, just so Mossad can spend the next 10 years dreaming up deliciously vindictive ways to finish off whats left of Hamas.

[Josh]

It seems like a perfectly good time to destroy Hezbollah’s organization as much as possible from the air. I am not convinced any ground operation will go so well, however. But that’s Israel’s choice. If Iran wants to role the dice and attack Israel directly again, they I think they will find the IDF response far more forceful this time, since the threat of a massive Hezbollah response is no longer binding. To the extent Hezbollah can do anything to Israel it likely already is or will anyway. There’s little additional threat Iran can bring to bear except it’s own ballistic missiles.

[glenn239]

18 minutes ago, Josh said:

It seems like a perfectly good time to destroy Hezbollah’s organization as much as possible from the air. I am not convinced any ground operation will go so well, however. But that’s Israel’s choice. If Iran wants to role the dice and attack Israel directly again, they I think they will find the IDF response far more forceful this time, since the threat of a massive Hezbollah response is no longer binding. To the extent Hezbollah can do anything to Israel it likely already is or will anyway. There’s little additional threat Iran can bring to bear except it’s own ballistic missiles.

How many Shahed drones does Hezbollah operate? 

[Tim the Tank Nut]

Not enough to overcome the command and control issues that Israel has given Hezbollah lately.

Regarding the hostages:  Stuart's method essentially makes all the Israelis hostages.  As General Patton said: "Wars are won by killing" and Nasrallah needed killing more than most.

I didn't think the Israelis had the ability to pull this off, but they have.  It's done.  Iran has to reconsider what Israel is capable of.  Maybe Oct 7th was a watershed moment in more ways than previously realized.  Israel does seem to have a unity of purpose that was previously not in evidence.  If Israel's effectiveness surprises me then perhaps it surprises the Iranian leadership as well.  After all, if Israel had then intelligence gathered to do this to Hezbollah then what do they have on Iran's leadership.  In addition to that question Iran has to consider that Israel is now aiming for the head in as well as the body of its enemies.

 

[Josh]

48 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

How many Shahed drones does Hezbollah operate? 

I have no idea, but so far not enough to matter.

[Mighty_Zuk]

1 hour ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Its an escalation, because its almost certainly going to bring Iran into the war in some fasion.

In war there are always many ways to prosecute it. In modern warfare particularly, the topic of a first strike (not the nuclear one) is one of great concern. 

If once the element of surprise was decided primarily on the tactical level such that one may attack from an unexpected direction, with an unexpectedly large number of forces, or an unexpected composition or tactics, then today it is about a destabilizing strike that few countries possess the capability to perform.

Say, a massive wave of cruise missiles hitting one country's airfields and shutting down its ability to retaliate.

Israel is one of these countries. Hezbollah is the only non-state entity also with that capability. The understanding of Hezbollah's force structure requires one to understand that Hezbollah's power relies greatly on 2 factors:

1. Whether it delivers the first strike.

2. Whether it is joined by others to multiply the effect.

Indeed, Israel fought an 8 front war this entire year, but none really committed to it, much as the Arabs failed to coordinate in the 40's-70's. The situation has resolved in a way that allowed Israel to strike first at Hezbollah.

If Iran didn't join now, it certainly won't join later, explaining why it now seeks a diplomatic solution with the US that will bring it the cash flow necessary to rebuild all it has lost.

Iran's April attack on Israel has also likely got Iran to change the calculus - understanding that its vast arsenal of is no match for Israel's air defenses, and that its own air defenses are no match for a single Israeli munition.

All signs are pointing to Iran realizing their mistake and wishing to avoid the FO stage. But nature doesn't work that way. One does not simply Fuck Around with no consequences.

1 hour ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Something the US has desperately been trying to avoid, because there is no way to defeat it.

If tiny Israel could do it, big boy USA could do it as well. 

But could you elaborate on why exactly you think there's no way to defeat Iran? 

Don't mind me celebrating Hezbollah's quick and soon-to-come demise, I'll gladly read this. And your opinion I respect and take seriously, so please be verbose.

1 hour ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

But his death plays no part in the ultimate solution of this war, which is Gaza and the Hostages. Unless they think isolating Gaza means they will capitulate, which I doubt, but even were it true, it means the complete destruction of Hezbollah, the Iranians in Syria, AND the defeat of Iran. This is akin to Kissingers desperate strategy to defeat the Vietnamese in Cambodia and Laos to achieve a success of the Vietnam war. Escalate to deescalate has a long proud history of not working.

Oh but I strongly disagree. The goal is not to defeat Iran's other proxies to defeat Hamas, but to defeat the other proxies for the sake of defeating them all.

Bringing all hostages home is a goal on one front. There are 7 more. It won't stop Hezbollah from firing rockets on Israel. Swift military action in the last 2 weeks has.

It also won't stop Iran from pumping money into new terrorist orgs in J&S. Dismantling their cash generation will.

Hamas operates on Iranian orders. But every front has a high degree of independence as well.

1 hour ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

If its not getting the hostages back, then its a distraction. And if its a distraction, its purely to keep Nethanyahu in power. I want the hostages back and the war to end, just so Mossad can spend the next 10 years dreaming up deliciously vindictive ways to finish off whats left of Hamas

That's great and all but we can't just wish Hezbollah's rocket attacks away. They started firing on Israel on October 8th. Sometimes over a thousand rockets per week. Over 100,000 Israelis are not in their homes, children not going to school, people jobless and living in uncertainty.

Your argument makes it sound like Hitler's war machine was just a distraction for Mussolini's little shenanigans.

9 minutes ago, Josh said:

I have no idea, but so far not enough to matter.

Israeli estimates put Hezbollah's drone fleet at the low thousands. But it is not Shaheds that they operate. They have different drones, more suitable for their needs.

[Josh]

21 minutes ago, Tim the Tank Nut said:

I didn't think the Israelis had the ability to pull this off, but they have.  It's done.  Iran has to reconsider what Israel is capable of.  Maybe Oct 7th was a watershed moment in more ways than previously realized.  Israel does seem to have a unity of purpose that was previously not in evidence.  If Israel's effectiveness surprises me then perhaps it surprises the Iranian leadership as well.  After all, if Israel had then intelligence gathered to do this to Hezbollah then what do they have on Iran's leadership.  In addition to that question Iran has to consider that Israel is now aiming for the head in as well as the body of its enemies.

 

Either by design or accident, Israel has gone through Irans proxies one by one while Iran largely sat on the sidelines. I’m not convinced the current offensive against Hezbollah was by design: there were some reports that the pagers were under suspicion by some Hez members and that this caused Israel to activate them before they were recalled. But either way, the success of that operation seemed to create a window of opportunity to liquidate a lot of leadership while their communications were paralyzed: high leadership assembled face to face in one large group, likely because it was the only secure way to converse, and whatever signaling they used to call the meeting was also compromised. I also suspect the organization and timing of rocket counter attacks was hampered by mid level casualties and the loss of a couple layers of communication (pagers and hand held radios). Whether premeditated or not, Israel capitalized on the opportunity, further enhanced by Irans clear lack of commitment to an open war. There’s little reason for Israel not to see the process through; they will never have such a window of opportunity.

[seahawk]

30 minutes ago, Tim the Tank Nut said:

Not enough to overcome the command and control issues that Israel has given Hezbollah lately.

Regarding the hostages:  Stuart's method essentially makes all the Israelis hostages.  As General Patton said: "Wars are won by killing" and Nasrallah needed killing more than most.

I didn't think the Israelis had the ability to pull this off, but they have.  It's done.  Iran has to reconsider what Israel is capable of.  Maybe Oct 7th was a watershed moment in more ways than previously realized.  Israel does seem to have a unity of purpose that was previously not in evidence.  If Israel's effectiveness surprises me then perhaps it surprises the Iranian leadership as well.  After all, if Israel had then intelligence gathered to do this to Hezbollah then what do they have on Iran's leadership.  In addition to that question Iran has to consider that Israel is now aiming for the head in as well as the body of its enemies.

 

At the moment Iran will look inside not to Israel, because obviously Mossad has deeply penetrated their allies and their own organisations.

[Roman Alymov]

21 minutes ago, Tim the Tank Nut said:

  Iran has to reconsider what Israel is capable of.  Maybe Oct 7th was a watershed moment in more ways than previously realized.  

 Actually, there is another perspective one could see events of October 7th 2023 from present day, late September of 2024:  It is obvious now that old tales about Israel position of deeply infiltrating Arab organisations (both in Gaza and Levan, as there is no reason to believe Gaza was LESS infiltrated) was true. This organisations were transparent both in terms of human sources and signals intelligence, and this infiltration is obviously not recent, but years, if not decades. old. Israel was at least aware of all the plans of Arabs (and Iranians), and quite possibly was in a position to manipulate this plans. So the myth of unexpected brutal attack on October 7th is now busted. Israeli political leadership was unavoidably aware of the attack coming. May be they were not expecting the success of it, but the attack itself can't be unexpected.

[Josh]

9 minutes ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

Israeli estimates put Hezbollah's drone fleet at the low thousands. But it is not Shaheds that they operate. They have different drones, more suitable for their needs.

Glenn thinks Shahed is the solution to all military problems the world over rather than the niche weapon for spread out soft targets that it is.

I have no doubt Hezbollah will use everything at its disposal now to the best of its ability; I think it is just already so badly hurt it will struggle to respond in a unified way. And I do not think Iran is going to be allowed to resupply the organization in any significant way while this fight carries on. They either have to go ballistic and accept the consequences or sit it out and watch their best outside resources go to waste.

[Mighty_Zuk]

6 minutes ago, Josh said:

there were some reports that the pagers were under suspicion by some Hez members and that this caused Israel to activate them before they were recalled.

This was confirmed to be false by anonymous Israeli officials.

6 minutes ago, Josh said:

I also suspect the organization and timing of rocket counter attacks was hampered by mid level casualties and the loss of a couple layers of communication (pagers and hand held radios). Whether premeditated or not, Israel capitalized on the opportunity, further enhanced by Irans clear lack of commitment to an open war. There’s little reason for Israel not to see the process through; they will never have such a window of opportunity.

Agree.

4 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

(both in Gaza and Levan, as there is no reason to believe Gaza was LESS infiltrated)

I know from personal experience that this is patently false. Hamas was less penetrated as a fact. 

I cannot comment on the tactical side beyond what currently exists on the web:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/November_2018_Gaza–Israel_clashes

What I can add is that after this incident, the tempo of intelligence operations in Gaza has been drastically impacted.

13 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

So the myth of unexpected brutal attack on October 7th is now busted. Israeli political leadership was unavoidably aware of the attack coming. May be they were not expecting the success of it, but the attack itself can't be unexpected.

Things only a mentally unstable person can say.

Mind taking a step out of the dungeon and touching some grass first?

2 minutes ago, Josh said:

I have no doubt Hezbollah will use everything at its disposal now to the best of its ability; I think it is just already so badly hurt it will struggle to respond in a unified way. And I do not think Iran is going to be allowed to resupply the organization in any significant way while this fight carries on. They either have to go ballistic and accept the consequences or sit it out and watch their best outside resources go to waste.

I agree. If they fear for Hezbollah's survival, and rightfully so - then it might be a good idea to just let it all loose lest it go to waste. They're done for anyway.

[Mighty_Zuk]

The squadron responsible for killing Nasrallah is said to be the 69th "Hammers" squadron. Look at the load on these lads:

 

Edited September 28 by Mighty_Zuk

[urbanoid]

Ha, funny seggs number squadron did some serious buttfucking!

[Mighty_Zuk]

33 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

Ha, funny seggs number squadron did some serious buttfucking!

Pumping 83 times with that deep penetration ordnance, finishing with an unprecedented load all over that Nasrallah guy.

 

 

In continuation of my analysis:

1. Israel's siege on Lebanon is the right move. For those unaware, Israel closed off Beirut airport to Iranian cargo planes a few hours ago, and started bombing the border crossings. It is vital to keep these disabled.

2. Atomizing Nasrallah is enough cause for celebration for every Israeli, Lebanese, and Syrian, but it's not the end of this war. Nasrallah has a doppleganger that already took his place. Hezbollah can still fight, and some parts of its force structure are practically untouched. As raised here before, Hezbollah can still choose to YOLO this whole thing.

3. Munitions and funds must be set aside to provide CAS to Lebanese militias should they choose to fight Hezbollah in the coming months/years. Unfortunately, however, the Christians in Lebanon are averse to conflicts, even if it means they're ultimately subjugated.

4. Pressure must be kept on enemy leadership. Funerals must become targets as well, as they contain a large concentration of terrorists. Particularly in J&S where they provide solid opportunities to get rid of large amounts of terrorists at once.

5. Iran clearly has the time and freedom to recalculate. It shouldn't have that freedom. A strategic advantage is obtained by disrupting the enemy's planning capability. By simply annihilating Iran's top leadership, it would be denied the ability to prosecute a coherent strategy vs Israel. In Iran's context, this can be the religious chain of command, the parliament, top IRGC leadership, and Basij leadership and C2. Only the Basij C2 has to be disrupted for there to be significant effect, if options are limited.