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Israel-Iran-Proxies Conflict


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1 hour ago, glenn239 said:

 

What does Hezbollah have to do with the Hamas hostage situation?  

There's a theory that pressure on Hezbollah can lead to Hamas concessions in hostage deal talks.

 

Seems Romeo 9X has some new competition.

 

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2 hours ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

Israel burnt through a lot of the materials provided, I'd say a majority. It definitely had huge stocks prior and the aid is to refill some. But it also burnt through a lot of other assets.

If as a consequence of prolonging the war by 2 months at the US's request - 2,000 more interceptors are fired, 500 more homes suffer damage and insurance claims are made (government policy, not private companies), 50 more people die (compensation for families), and 500,000 more flight hours are logged, but no 155mm shells are fired, 

But the US provides 200,000 155mm artillery shells in that time, then it's wrong to say Israel received more aid than it used. The total would be the subtraction, and eventually, yes, Israel received far less than it is owed.

Total war costs as of a few weeks ago were NIS 260 billion, which is $70 billion. The US hasn't provided even 10% of that.

And even if it did, it must always be divided by a factor as purchasing power in the US is much lower than in Israel. Buying 1 munition in USD can buy several in NIS.

Yes, of course. Almost 2,000 lives, and 100,000 refugees. Want some more?

My point is that it seems likely the war can only go on with US cooperation. And I think it should: I am on the record on this thread as stating a cease fire is not a good option for Israel (and I think in an incredibly bad political move, Naz already dismissed the option anyway). But the functional US support for Israel is very, very tangible, steady, and irreplaceable. Sometimes that support comes with some strings attached, because, politics.

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2 hours ago, glenn239 said:

 

What does Hezbollah have to do with the Hamas hostage situation?  

Everything? Hezbollah's explicit demand is that Israel stop its military operation in Gaza. Israel's explicity demand is that all hostages be returned. Now I hardly think Hamas is going to bail out Hezbollah by negotiating a deal (and that leaves Lil' Nas holding the bag of flaming poop), but the two are quite clearly linked: Hezbollah is supporting Hamas, else there would be no fighting on the Lebanon-Israel frontier. I find it incredibly you might suggest otherwise.

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1 hour ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

There's a theory that pressure on Hezbollah can lead to Hamas concessions in hostage deal talks.

 

 

I doubt that is true, in that Hamas does not answer to Hez and Iran cannot explicitly force a deal. But it is clear that the war in Gaza is directly linked to the war in Lebanon. You do not have the latter without the former; Lil' Nas has explicitly stated that Hezbollah will cease operations as soon as the IDF ceases operations in Gaza. And the latter is directly linked to hostages.

Edited by Josh
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4 hours ago, Josh said:

Everything? Hezbollah's explicit demand is that Israel stop its military operation in Gaza. Israel's explicity demand is that all hostages be returned. 

Hezbollah does not control the hostages, therefore, cannot return them.

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4 hours ago, glenn239 said:

Hezbollah does not control the hostages, therefore, cannot return them.

They can stop firing rockets anytime they chose. At no point did Hezbollah have to be part of this conflict; they inserted themselves into it. Fuck around and find out.

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10 hours ago, Josh said:

Sometimes that support comes with some strings attached, because, politics.

The US has been steadily losing influence for over a decade. Attaching lots of strings to defense exports is another way of losing influence.

 

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1 hour ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

The US has been steadily losing influence for over a decade. Attaching lots of strings to defense exports is another way of losing influence.

 

If Israel wants to go to Russia or China, they are welcome to. Until that day; dance, monkey. Or build your own bombs at such a rate that you are not dependent on our political situation.

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4 hours ago, seahawk said:

Most US taxpayers will happily end that support.

That's not true, and I can prove this mathematically.

To believe the US must end its alliances, a person must have an IQ of below 90, and most will fall under 80. However the IQ is a scale designed to average at 100, and the US average is 98, meaning those believing what you said cannot be the majority.

4 hours ago, Josh said:

If Israel wants to go to Russia or China, they are welcome to. Until that day; dance, monkey. Or build your own bombs at such a rate that you are not dependent on our political situation.

It's not about buying weapons, donkey.

Israel builds its own weapons and buys a lot from elsewhere. The US also won't end its aid to Israel. But the strings attached mean that whenever the US asks Israel for certain favors, Israel will be increasingly likely to decline if these favors come at a cost to it.

Not just Israel. Whenever the US loses influence over Israel, it loses influence over all allies.

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I think this is madness. All you are going to do is start a regional war that the US is going to struggle to finish for you. And what is more with Trump, its entirely possible, considering he is no longer friends with Bibi, he will let you get on with it.

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