Israel-Iran-Proxies Conflict

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47 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

Is it really surprising, after years of war in Ukraine where all Russian missiles are claimed to be shot down, missed, failed or hit hospitals? And Syria before that.... 

No. It is not surprising. It isn't even surprising when people lap it up. 

But surely, on here, we can expect a slightly higher standard? Or, put another way, has anyone seen any attempts to actually quantify any of the damage?

[Mighty_Zuk]

46 minutes ago, ink said:

All the media I've read today say Iran's attack caused "limited damage", which is fine, of course, if that's the case. But I've not seen any attempt to actually assess the damage in any way.

The damage in the April attack was accurately assessed via satellite footage several days later. The same can occur here. Although Israel can keep a tight lid on some things, the threshold for such things is very low - i.e. you can't hide major things, a many different factors.

The availability of sat photos can depend on weather (clear skies are better, today's cloudy), when a suitable satellite flies over, and price. Higher resolution and recent shots are more expensive.

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8 minutes ago, Markus Becker said:

One KIA. And a Palestinean who was hit by debris.

Thanks kindly for your detailed and helpful comment.

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1 minute ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

today's cloudy

Thanks!

[Markus Becker]

27 minutes ago, ink said:

Thanks kindly for your detailed and helpful comment.

You got to recognize the irony of the situation. The self declared leader of the Axis of resistance attacks the little satan with much of his might and manges to kill exactly one person and he's from the people Iran wants to liberate.

Well done Iran, very well done!

[bojan]

2 hours ago, Yama said:

Yeah, I suppose seeing one such impact would be good explanation. Iranians seem to have some kind of powered/maneuvering terminal stages?

Warheads separate from a missile, how maneuverable they are is a big question, but their CEP decent enough to hit individual buildings, as seen during attack on US base, so maneuverability has to be included.

[Mighty_Zuk]

What I forgot to add to my previous comment is that Israel sharing its attack plans with the US is no longer trivial. The Biden administration as a matter of policy leaks Israeli plans to the press to dissuade it from action. Israel doesn't keep them totally in the dark, but also doesn't reveal too much.

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42 minutes ago, Markus Becker said:

You got to recognize the irony of the situation. The self declared leader of the Axis of resistance attacks the little satan with much of his might and manges to kill exactly one person and he's from the people Iran wants to liberate.

Well done Iran, very well done!

I always wanted to be one of those people who just unquestioningly soaks up everything they read in the news as the gospel truth - I'm convinced those people lead happier loves. But, I've got to ask, what do you do with all that extra happiness? I hope you're not just frittering it all away.

[lucklucky]

https://packaged-media.redd.it/777xag49qbsd1/pb/m2-res_854p.mp4?m=DASHPlaylist.mpd&v=1&e=1727881200&s=5c755d3126890b5475f13d3fcd67184826c4aadd

 

 Israeli motorcyclist almost hit , said to be from yesterday. Seems a relatively small charge.

Edited Wednesday at 11:08 AM by lucklucky

[lucklucky]

1 hour ago, ink said:

Thanks kindly for your detailed and helpful comment.

The video from the palestinian man hit does exist, it is basially a big tube without the warhead front falling into the man from the sky . If he did not moved just before he would not have died. Really unlucky.

[Josh]

4 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

From what someone was saying earlier, it seems to perform akin to Pershing 2 or Iskander.

They have a number of missiles with a Pershing II type MARV as the payload; the fins of the terminal maneuvering section even look similar. Call it “Persian II”.  

[Mighty_Zuk]

First IDF casualty in the incursion into Lebanon.

https://www.ynetnews.com/article/bkqeb2ccc

Reminder that while Israel has already eliminated thousands of terrorists, Hezbollah has tens of thousands, including those battle hardened in Syria. A lot of specialists were killed, but general infantry are no small threat.

In 2006 Hezbollah attempted to challenge the IDF by posing an AT threat. This ultimately failed quite miserably and Hezbollah was knocked out, far in excess of what it thought would happen. Still, that's not the goal now. Simply inflicting casualties won't cut it.

The rationale in 2006 was quite simple. The IDF was, as it is today, a very armor-centric force. But focusing on AT today is not a worthwhile task. The technological gap had only widened in the IDF's favor. But infantry is where Hezbollah may attempt to equal the IDF. Therefore it'd make a lot of sense if we see Hezbollah engaging primarily in ambushes on dismounted or light mobile infantry, as their MO.

 

EDIT: 7 more names added to the list of confirmed KIA. Rumors started spreading yesterday about a mass casualty event likely involving an ambush. The IDF however needs time to inform the families before making a public statement.

The government will soon have to explain to the public the more micro level objectives in this limited incursion.

 

Edited Wednesday at 02:47 PM by Mighty_Zuk

[crazyinsane105]

Reports are suggesting there were about 14 killed, but this can be brought down to 7.

IDF is preparing for more forces to be sent into Lebanon, but so far end game seems pretty unclear 

[crazyinsane105]

4 hours ago, lucklucky said:

The video from the palestinian man hit does exist, it is basially a big tube without the warhead front falling into the man from the sky . If he did not moved just before he would not have died. Really unlucky.

Happened in Gaza as well, out of all places 

[rmgill]

7 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

The point is, it is next to impossible to find out what was the real damage done to Israel by missile strike (i doubt satelite imagery companies would rust to publish results as they usually do with strikes in Russia, and Israel respoonce to Iran could depend on too many factors, where most important ones are not military but internal political situation in IZ itself).

Does Israel WANT to be providing Iran with BDA and Targeting Adjustments? 

[Stuart Galbraith]

31 minutes ago, crazyinsane105 said:

Reports are suggesting there were about 14 killed, but this can be brought down to 7.

IDF is preparing for more forces to be sent into Lebanon, but so far end game seems pretty unclear 

Which is pretty much what I was saying before all this happened, and I was told not to worry, it was just going to be a pinprick.

Already one Israeli conscript has died. How many more is it going to be before people wise up that this is a fundimentally stupid thing to be doing?

 

[rmgill]

4 hours ago, lucklucky said:

https://packaged-media.redd.it/777xag49qbsd1/pb/m2-res_854p.mp4?m=DASHPlaylist.mpd&v=1&e=1727881200&s=5c755d3126890b5475f13d3fcd67184826c4aadd

 

 Israeli motorcyclist almost hit , said to be from yesterday. Seems a relatively small charge.

One of the submunitions? 

His seat probably needs to be replaced. 

[Stuart Galbraith]

3 hours ago, Josh said:

They have a number of missiles with a Pershing II type MARV as the payload; the fins of the terminal maneuvering section even look similar. Call it “Persian II”.  

Indeed.

 

[lucklucky]

39 minutes ago, crazyinsane105 said:

Reports are suggesting there were about 14 killed, but this can be brought down to 7.

IDF is preparing for more forces to be sent into Lebanon, but so far end game seems pretty unclear 

7 in one building that had Heezbollah inside and another soldier that i don't know the motive.

[Stuart Galbraith]

Reports of 8 soldiers killed in Lebanon.

[TrustMe]

BBC report of were the Iranian BM's hit in Israel ...

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/cr4x3xnn7w7o

[glenn239]

1 hour ago, rmgill said:

Does Israel WANT to be providing Iran with BDA and Targeting Adjustments? 

Russian and Chinese satellites flying on a north-south axis covering Ukraine can do that too I think.

[Josh]

6 minutes ago, TrustMe said:

BBC report of were the Iranian BM's hit in Israel ...

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/cr4x3xnn7w7o

So it seems the footage with the heavy pounding was the same airbase targeted in April.

[Josh]

4 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

Russian and Chinese satellites flying on a north-south axis covering Ukraine can do that too I think.

They could, but do they want to? Russia I could see; the two countries buy weapons from each other. I do not see why China would involve itself.

[RETAC21]

Zineb's analysis on how Iranians see this and what they want to achieve is interesting, read it to the end: