Israel-Iran-Proxies Conflict

[Daan]

Apparently long lines in front of gas stations in Teheran tonight. They know what will happen these days.

 

Unherd had an article about this vulnerability: https://unherd.com/2024/10/israel-should-hit-iran-where-it-hurts/

Edited October 1, 2024 by Daan

[Yama]

3 hours ago, bojan said:

Remaining propellant in the warhead of the missile when warhead separates during reentry?

Remaining propellant in the ballistic missiles?

No to both, even ancient liquid fueled missiles that did not have separating warhead purged a tanks of eventually remaining fuel/oxidizer, in order for sloshing of it not to influence their trajectory during reentry.

Could some be interceptor missiles unable to reach their targets and therefore hitting the ground?

I don't remember seeing similar videos from the previous attack. That didn't have that many ballistic missiles, though.

[bojan]

Just now, Yama said:

Could some be interceptor missiles unable to reach their targets and therefore hitting the ground?

They should self-destruct, and while SD can fail, failing in such number would be really weird.

[Josh]

It seems most likely we are simply seeing impacts. There is little other explanation.

[glenn239]

1 hour ago, Yama said:

 

I don't remember seeing similar videos from the previous attack. That didn't have that many ballistic missiles, though.

Looks like a bit of a love tap to me, quite frankly.  Ramped up a bit from the whiffle bat attack back in April, but still probably nowhere near the intensity of an all-out strike.

Edited October 1, 2024 by glenn239

[glenn239]

12 minutes ago, Josh said:

It seems most likely we are simply seeing impacts. There is little  no other explanation.

I would add that I only saw one missile strike that qualified for certain as landing in a harmless area - looked like it hit the sea.  The others from the little bit I could tell hit the city or airbase, should have been intercepted by Iron Dome, but were not.

Edited October 1, 2024 by glenn239

[Josh]

34 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

Looks like a bit of a love tap to me, quite frankly.  Ramped up a bit from the whiffle bat attack back in April, but still probably nowhere near the intensity of an all-out strike.

If so that would be a pointless exercise. The main deterrent previously was total war with Hezbollah. Since that is effectively already in place, Israel is going to strike back hard regardless of how deescalatory Iran tries to be. If they want a war, they got a war. If they wanted to shrug this off, they should not have done anything. If they half assed it, they are going to suffer the worst of all worlds like Hezbollah.

[Josh]

Random thought:

“Israel and The Axis of Resistance” would be a great band name. Jewish front man, Persian and Pal instrumentals…

[crazyinsane105]

3 hours ago, Josh said:

If so that would be a pointless exercise. The main deterrent previously was total war with Hezbollah. Since that is effectively already in place, Israel is going to strike back hard regardless of how deescalatory Iran tries to be. If they want a war, they got a war. If they wanted to shrug this off, they should not have done anything. If they half assed it, they are going to suffer the worst of all worlds like Hezbollah.

I think the Israelis will strike back, but the intensity is uncertain. The Iranians may have proven a point that they can overcome Israeli AD with mass concentrated fire, but chose again to not actually hit much of importance. If the Israelis want to ramp things up, the Iranians can as well.
 

It just depends who has a higher tolerance of pain. 

Edited October 2, 2024 by crazyinsane105

[txtree99]

Wow

 

 

[Josh]

1 minute ago, txtree99 said:

Wow

 

 

I cannot imagine shooting down an airliner delivering anything Israel was a consideration. You don’t shoot two hundred ballistic missiles and expect people not to get hurt.

But wow what a show…I would have risked anything to be on that flight.

[crazyinsane105]

59 minutes ago, Josh said:

I cannot imagine shooting down an airliner delivering anything Israel was a consideration. You don’t shoot two hundred ballistic missiles and expect people not to get hurt.

But wow what a show…I would have risked anything to be on that flight.

I think after the accidental Iranian shoot down of the Ukrainian aircraft, they probably triple checked the airspace before having missiles fired. 

[Josh]

40 minutes ago, crazyinsane105 said:

I think after the accidental Iranian shoot down of the Ukrainian aircraft, they probably triple checked the airspace before having missiles fired. 

Why and how?

[Mighty_Zuk]

9 hours ago, old_goat said:

Sure, unprovoked... Maybe a genocidal war in gaza, an agression against Lebanon that left hundreds of civilians dead, multiple attacks against Iranians in Syria and elsewhere... 

Sure thing goatberg.

6 hours ago, glenn239 said:

I would add that I only saw one missile strike that qualified for certain as landing in a harmless area - looked like it hit the sea.  The others from the little bit I could tell hit the city or airbase, should have been intercepted by Iron Dome, but were not.

Iron Dome is a C-RAM and SHORAD system. While it can be useful vs debris, the primary terminal defense system is David's Sling, which may in the future be augmented with the SkySonic.

Air defenses will generally be further augmented in a few years also by the Arrow 4 (Arrow 2 replacement), Iron Beam, airborne Iron Beam, and in the more distant future, perhaps near the end of the decade - an Arrow 5 to replace or supplement the Arrow 3.

 

 

Regarding targets:

The US as always has a say in how things go, but it has chosen to disengage this entire war and abstained from really supporting Israel. As such its influence has somewhat diminished.

Israel took a considerable economical hit, so it may want to return the favor by hitting Iran's economy, but also its DIB and existing stockpiles.

Edited October 2, 2024 by Mighty_Zuk

[Stuart Galbraith]

7 hours ago, glenn239 said:

Looks like a bit of a love tap to me, quite frankly.  Ramped up a bit from the whiffle bat attack back in April, but still probably nowhere near the intensity of an all-out strike.

To put it in perspective, ok, it was only one day, but that was more missiles on one day than London ever received in one day of V2's. No, it was intense, and unless the Iranians have sold their entire stockpile to Russia, my guess is there is more to come.

Edited October 2, 2024 by Stuart Galbraith

[Stuart Galbraith]

4 hours ago, Josh said:

Random thought:

“Israel and The Axis of Resistance” would be a great band name. Jewish front man, Persian and Pal instrumentals…

'The Exploding Pager Company' would be a second good choice....

[Yama]

9 hours ago, bojan said:

They should self-destruct, and while SD can fail, failing in such number would be really weird.

Yeah, I suppose seeing one such impact would be good explanation. Iranians seem to have some kind of powered/maneuvering terminal stages?

[Stuart Galbraith]

From what someone was saying earlier, it seems to perform akin to Pershing 2 or Iskander.

[Roman Alymov]

About claims on performance - from Rus TG

"Indeed, Iran's statements that as a result of the strike on Israel, the IDF military bases were hit, Israeli aircraft and infrastructure facilities were destroyed, look, let's say, controversial. 

I won't go into it. Just here's a historical episode for you. 

So, the year is 1818. The Persian Shah Abbas Mirza writes to the Russian ambassador in Tehran, General Ermolov (yes, the one who fought in the Caucasus) about his victories over the Afghans. The Persian-Afghan war was just underway. 

"Our victorious troops are always protected by the cavalry regiments of the heavenly forces, and therefore the actions of the enemies on the battlefield have the same force against us as the stars of heaven against the rising sun.

 Our flaming sword, aimed at defeating the enemy, is lightning that burns everything. 

From the dust rushing by our undefeated cavalry, the place of battle faded so that if the fire opened by the sarbases did not illuminate it, then the arrows depriving of life would not find a way to pierce the enemy's hearts. 

The battle lasted for five hours, and the combatants did not distinguish between white and black. Finally, at sunset, from the fire of cannons crushing the Caucasus Mountains, the foundation of the enemy troops was destroyed, and the unfortunate banner of the enemy was overthrown."

Yermolov, of course, knew perfectly well how things really were there. And it was quite the opposite.  Ermolov informed the Russian Foreign Minister Count Nesselrode of the following:

"The Khorosans, together with the Afghans, defeated the Persian troops, and the damage was terrible.

 The commander of these bought off his head with a large sum of money, and the shah, although he continued to command the troops, but having gathered large forces, he himself went to the enemy. 

The people of Tehran believe, however, that he will not go far, fearing that the slightest failure under his own leadership will not make a bad impression on the people. Despite, however, the failure, false news about the victories are disclosed and celebrations are sent." 

Now the Iranian statements are somewhat reminiscent of the letter about the flaming sword. 
Although, in fairness, it should be noted that if any important targets were hit in Israel, no one will ever know about it. The Israeli media, bloggers, and opinion leaders are extremely disciplined in this sense." ( https://t.me/MedvedevVesti/18798 )

[Stuart Galbraith]

Well one seemingly important target was hit. In the footage of the raid on tel aviv there was in the distance, impossible to gauge, a fireball that persisted. It was either a fuel tank, possibly on an airfield, or a gas main that was ruptured. So far ive not heard any reports about what it could have been.

I think we will learn how bad it was when we see how bad the raid on iran is going to be. If its a tickle like last time, then we know they successfully avoided anything important. If its cataclysmic, then presumably it was more successful than anyone wants to admit. Either that or Netanyahu is hitting something stronger than coffee.

I dont deny the Iranians and Persian before them are consumate bullshit artists. But sometimes they can achieve close to the things they proport. Technology is largely immune from politics and has its own agenda.

[Roman Alymov]

5 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Well one seemingly important target was hit. In the footage of the raid on tel aviv there was in the distance, impossible to gauge, a fireball that persisted. It was either a fuel tank, possibly on an airfield, or a gas main that was ruptured. So far ive not heard any reports about what it could have been.

I think we will learn how bad it was when we see how bad the raid on iran is going to be. If its a tickle like last time, then we know they successfully avoided anything important. If its cataclysmic, then presumably it was more successful than anyone wants to admit. Either that or Netanyahu is hitting something stronger than coffee.

I dont deny the Iranians and Persian before them are consumate bullshit artists. But sometimes they can achieve close to the things they proport. Technology is largely immune from politics and has its own agenda.

The point is, it is next to impossible to find out what was the real damage done to Israel by missile strike (i doubt satelite imagery companies would rust to publish results as they usually do with strikes in Russia, and Israel respoonce to Iran could depend on too many factors, where most important ones are not military but internal political situation in IZ itself).

[Mighty_Zuk]

18 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Well one seemingly important target was hit. In the footage of the raid on tel aviv there was in the distance, impossible to gauge, a fireball that persisted. It was either a fuel tank, possibly on an airfield, or a gas main that was ruptured. So far ive not heard any reports about what it could have been.

I think we will learn how bad it was when we see how bad the raid on iran is going to be. If its a tickle like last time, then we know they successfully avoided anything important. If its cataclysmic, then presumably it was more successful than anyone wants to admit. Either that or Netanyahu is hitting something stronger than coffee.

I dont deny the Iranians and Persian before them are consumate bullshit artists. But sometimes they can achieve close to the things they proport. Technology is largely immune from politics and has its own agenda.

An inquiry into operations on that gas rig led to an answer that it was a controlled release, with rather poor timing. If it was an impact it'd potentially burn for a while but there's no fire now. They often have to burn excess gases.

[ink]

All the media I've read today say Iran's attack caused "limited damage", which is fine, of course, if that's the case. But I've not seen any attempt to actually assess the damage in any way.

[Roman Alymov]

9 minutes ago, ink said:

All the media I've read today say Iran's attack caused "limited damage", which is fine, of course, if that's the case. But I've not seen any attempt to actually assess the damage in any way.

Is it really surprising, after years of war in Ukraine where all Russian missiles are claimed to be shot down, missed, failed or hit hospitals? And Syria before that.... 

[Markus Becker]

51 minutes ago, ink said:

All the media I've read today say Iran's attack caused "limited damage", which is fine, of course, if that's the case. But I've not seen any attempt to actually assess the damage in any way.

One KIA. And a Palestinean who was hit by debris.