Israel-Iran-Proxies Conflict

[bojan]

14 minutes ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

What you're seeing may be the remaining propellant burning.

Remaining propellant in the warhead of the missile when warhead separates during reentry?

Remaining propellant in the ballistic missiles?

No to both, even ancient liquid fueled missiles that did not have separating warhead purged a tanks of eventually remaining fuel/oxidizer, in order for sloshing of it not to influence their trajectory during reentry.

[Mighty_Zuk]

IDF reports that all Arrow missiles that were launched - hit their targets. However, many BMs were not engaged, reportedly in line with policy not to engage projectiles deemed not heading toward protected areas.

I think there's more to it than this statement. Still, it's worth noting that the "red button" effects Israel demonstrated vs Hezbollah exist vs Iran and others.

I won't elaborate but let's just say that all missiles functioning properly is not something trivial even after accounting for regular malfunctions.

[rmgill]

What do we think these are? Shahab 3s? 

What do those impacts look like? The single warhead or the cluster munitions? 

Data on Shahab 3 from wikipedia.
 

Diameter	1.2 m (3 ft 11 in)
Warhead	One (1,200 kg or 2,600 lb) at 1,000-2,000 km[1]– five cluster munitionwarheads in new models (280 kg or 620 lb each), each warhead can target different destinations.

Engine	Liquid propellant rocket[2]
Operational range	1,000 km (620 mi)[1]-2,000 km (1,200 mi) [3] (Shahab-3 ER)[4]
Flight altitude	400 km[5]
Maximum speed	2.4 km/s at altitude of 10–30 km in final stage which is about Mach 7[6]
Guidance system	inertial navigation system
Accuracy	2,500 m Circular error probable[1]
Launch platform	Vehicle

[rmgill]

3 minutes ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

IDF reports that all Arrow missiles that were launched - hit their targets. However, many BMs were not engaged, reportedly in line with policy not to engage projectiles deemed not heading toward protected areas.

I think there's more to it than this statement. Still, it's worth noting that the "red button" effects Israel demonstrated vs Hezbollah exist vs Iran and others.

I won't elaborate but let's just say that all missiles functioning properly is not something trivial even after accounting for regular malfunctions.

Obviously, not wasting interceptors on warheads not on track for an Israeli target is exceedingly important. The same goes for not shooting any decoys if Iran uses them OR on boosters or drive sections is also important. 

Dreadful to see Missile Command played for real and not on a game console or as some scene in a sci-fi film. 

[Mighty_Zuk]

2 minutes ago, rmgill said:

Obviously, not wasting interceptors on warheads not on track for an Israeli target is exceedingly important. The same goes for not shooting any decoys if Iran uses them OR on boosters or drive sections is also important. 

Dreadful to see Missile Command played for real and not on a game console or as some scene in a sci-fi film. 

The flip side is some Iranian MRBMs deploy MARVs whose divert capability is not insignificant and therefore impact point calculation is very difficult.

 

IDF says it will conduct airstrikes throughout the middle east tonight.

I'm disappointed the US decided to sit this one out. We can make do without the US in the short term in terms of war materiel but current policy does mean we'll have to resort to being more aggressive to complete objectives with given resources, something the US certainly doesn't want. But if we must, then shrug it off and get back to work with what we got.

Iran's oil infrastructure should be the prime target tonight, as well as the Ayatollah and the next in line.

 

[Stuart Galbraith]

12 minutes ago, rmgill said:

What do we think these are? Shahab 3s? 

What do those impacts look like? The single warhead or the cluster munitions? 

Data on Shahab 3 from wikipedia.
 

Diameter	1.2 m (3 ft 11 in)
Warhead	One (1,200 kg or 2,600 lb) at 1,000-2,000 km[1]– five cluster munitionwarheads in new models (280 kg or 620 lb each), each warhead can target different destinations.

Engine	Liquid propellant rocket[2]
Operational range	1,000 km (620 mi)[1]-2,000 km (1,200 mi) [3] (Shahab-3 ER)[4]
Flight altitude	400 km[5]
Maximum speed	2.4 km/s at altitude of 10–30 km in final stage which is about Mach 7[6]
Guidance system	inertial navigation system
Accuracy	2,500 m Circular error probable[1]
Launch platform	Vehicle

There is a photo of an impact crater on the video I linked of the school above.

[Stuart Galbraith]

 

[crazyinsane105]

This seems to be hypersonic?

 

[Tim the Tank Nut]

so have the launch sites been identified?  Wondering if they came from inside Iranian border or from proxy ground...

[Stuart Galbraith]

This one gives some idea of the warhead size.

 

[crazyinsane105]

Nevim airbase apparently 

 

[Mighty_Zuk]

3 minutes ago, crazyinsane105 said:

This seems to be hypersonic?

 

All, or at least most ballistic missiles are hypersonic.

[Mighty_Zuk]

I saw that post. C-130 configurable as aerial refueling tankers were spotted airborne in large numbers. Nevatim AFB has 2 squadrons of C-130.

 

[Roman Alymov]

Video from Russian migrants in the epicentre of Iranian missiles strike (in Russian) https://t.me/boris_rozhin/139309

[crazyinsane105]

12 minutes ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

I saw that post. C-130 configurable as aerial refueling tankers were spotted airborne in large numbers. Nevatim AFB has 2 squadrons of C-130.

 

I doubt any aircraft were hit. But if crucial infrastructure was destroyed, this will effect the availability rate of F-35s in the long run

 

[crazyinsane105]

29 minutes ago, Tim the Tank Nut said:

so have the launch sites been identified?  Wondering if they came from inside Iranian border or from proxy ground...

With this many launches, it was no doubt in Iran. I mean Hezbullah can launch a lot as well but are refraining to do so, for who knows what reason 

[Tim the Tank Nut]

wouldn't these launches from Iranian soil be the first direct large scale attack by Iran on Israel?

[Stuart Galbraith]

Since April, that was the last one.

 

[urbanoid]

6 minutes ago, Tim the Tank Nut said:

wouldn't these launches from Iranian soil be the first direct large scale attack by Iran on Israel?

Definitely not the first.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/April_2024_Iranian_strikes_against_Israel

[mandeb48]

2 hours ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

btw if anyone thinks the terror attack in Tel Aviv where 6 were murdered is not connected to this - I have a bridge to sell you.

This type of attack is not at all unusual in Israel. it could be simple coincidence

[old_goat]

2 hours ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

This attack was seemingly unprovoked, so Israel has the casus belli to attack widely across Iran.

Sure, unprovoked... Maybe a genocidal war in gaza, an agression against Lebanon that left hundreds of civilians dead, multiple attacks against Iranians in Syria and elsewhere... 

[rmgill]

1 hour ago, crazyinsane105 said:

I doubt any aircraft were hit. But if crucial infrastructure was destroyed, this will effect the availability rate of F-35s in the long run

 

Given the size of the warheads and the small number to hit the airbase, and the fact that airbases are QUITE large. I doubt this will be more than a reason to bulldoze some dirt and gravel back into a hole and stake down some Marston mat for short term. 

There's a reason that NATO anti-runway weapons had a mix of cratering munitions AND mines to make runway clearance harder. It was not impossible, not when you could run an APC up and fire a .50 BMG at the mine from a safe distance. 

[rmgill]

9 minutes ago, old_goat said:

Sure, unprovoked... Maybe a genocidal war in gaza, an agression against Lebanon that left hundreds of civilians dead, multiple attacks against Iranians in Syria and elsewhere... 

At this point after October 7, that Israel isn't leaving Hamas Soldiers hanging from stakes ala Vlad Tepis, you should be thankful. 

[crazyinsane105]

27 minutes ago, rmgill said:

Given the size of the warheads and the small number to hit the airbase, and the fact that airbases are QUITE large. I doubt this will be more than a reason to bulldoze some dirt and gravel back into a hole and stake down some Marston mat for short term. 

There's a reason that NATO anti-runway weapons had a mix of cratering munitions AND mines to make runway clearance harder. It was not impossible, not when you could run an APC up and fire a .50 BMG at the mine from a safe distance. 

If runways were hit, sure. If bunkers or buildings were hit, a bit different story 

We will see what the satellite pics show 

[Stuart Galbraith]

Fiver says they went for the tank farms.