Israel-Iran-Proxies Conflict

[Mighty_Zuk]

Opening this thread so that the Middle East thread can be actually used for broader MENA stuff and so the Israel-Palestine thread won't be hijacked for the Israel-Hezbollah conflict.

I'm well aware that at the moment it seems like a purely Israel-Hezbollah conflict but terrorist organizations operated by Iran are also actively involved in Yemen, Iraq, Syria, even if on the low burner. Iran may also participate, so I'm not going to call this an Israel-Hezbollah conflict to avoid confusion if it does become a broader conflict.

 

I'll start with a short outlook on the very near future of the conflict. Tamir Hayman is ex-IDF intel chief but also current head of INSS think tank. He assumes that if Israeli pre-emptive action in Lebanon continues, Hezbollah will have only the options of expanding the conflict at a low rate of escalation or going all out, thus leaving no real choice for the de-escalation that Biden is currently pushing for.

 

[Mighty_Zuk]

IDF announces a 3rd wave of strikes against Hezbollah. The first began sometime early in the morning.

Lack of footage indicates that so far the IDF has targeted Hezbollah mostly in Baalbek which is a mountainous and thus less populated area, with a lot of closed military sites. Some of Hezbollah's infrastructure there is embedded in mountains.

According to military correspondent Mannie Fabian (I highly recommend giving him a follow), the IDF also said they'll accelerate the strikes today.

 

Hezbollah death toll is rising. Some of these are bound to be civilian, as we've seen Hezbollah rockets exploding inside civilians' homes.

A lot of Hezbollah's KIA are specialists operating rockets, drones, and long range missiles. More valuable than the average grunt.

I have little doubt, however, that the IDF is also targeting other Hezbollah assets related to ground defense. The IDF needs to be able to invade on very short notice, and it therefore needs to make Lebanon more permissive for it. 

 

Edited September 24 by Mighty_Zuk

[Mighty_Zuk]

The empty patch of land on the coast is a huge Rafael facility that Hezbollah's been trying to hit for quite a while. They actually scored 2 hits a while ago, but nothing major. Gonna be quite annoying to be the guy who found out his office got demolished, but the important stuff is bomb-proof.

 

[Mighty_Zuk]

Map of where prominent Hezbollans were offed. These are the only strikes conducted in Beirut since the war started, of which 3 just this week.

With this, all of Nasrallah's desputies are killed except one seriously injured.

All within an area of 2 sq.km. 

This is in the heart of the Dahiyeh neighborhood, home to Beirut's Shiite population. If the war escalates further, expect this neighborhood to eventually look like something out of Gaza.

 

A little on the US angle again. Biden needs to lead the line until the elections - to seek de-escalation in rhetoric and support Israel in action. Kamala or Trump must then proceed this line and take a hard stance vs Hezbollah and support an alternative government.

They must then work to secure a government in Lebanon that relies on its Christian and Druze populations and excludes the Shi'ites from all government organs and decision making. Democracy is not a suitable form of governance at the moment no matter how tempted the US is.

If the US will instead decide to push de-escalation via actions and retain the status quo after the war is over, without a transfer of power to the Christians and Druze, it will just restart the clock until another Hezbollah pops up and we'll infinitely repeat this cycle.

Edited September 24 by Mighty_Zuk

[Murph]

Urban renewal Israeli style:  Also that was one heck of a fireworks factory!

 

 

[Mighty_Zuk]

18 hours ago, Murph said:

Urban renewal Israeli style:  Also that was one heck of a fireworks factory!

 

 

This is still my favorite one:

 

And now we have visual confirmation of the IDF targeting long range munitions. The Fateh 110 variant in question has a warhead of about 450kg and range of 250km. This strike was preceded by Hezbollah launching a single missile at the Tel Aviv metro area, which was intercepted with David's Sling.

 

Edited September 25 by Mighty_Zuk

[Mighty_Zuk]

Israeli TV reporting interesting numbers that only nullify any claims of indiscriminate targeting like the resident goat and former perun like to say. 

The last 2 days of fighting in Lebanon have cost the IDF NIS 4 billion. An average of 2 billion per day.

In comparison, they state:

Cast Lead (2008-2009) - NIS 200 million.

Protective Edge (2014) - NIS 200 million.

Guardian of the Walls (2021) - NIS 350 million.

Swords of Iron (2023-now) - NIS 600 million.

Cited reasons are the frequent use of several times the necessary munitions in order to reduce casualties. For example, 4x 500lbs JDAMs instead of 1x 2,000lbs JDAM.

1 NIS = 0.27 USD.

Edited September 25 by Mighty_Zuk

[Markus Becker]

Not much left here:

 

[Mighty_Zuk]

Israeli TV reports IDF conducted 280 strikes on Hezbollah targets this morning, including 60 on Hezbollah's intelligence capabilities.

 

Edited September 25 by Mighty_Zuk

[Mighty_Zuk]

My analysis:

Ground incursion will not benefit Israel. Or at least it should be very limited, only to south of the Litani with perhaps the aim of displacing the Shi'ite population. 

Hezbollah poses a threat to Israel in 2 ways:

1. In peak strength, it deters Israel from action in Iran.
2. In reduced strength, rocket fire into cities disrupts the economy.

Israel can bring Hezbollah to a status of vastly reduced strength with an aerial campaign alone. Committing to a ground incursion without the goal of completely annihilating Hezbollah will keep it in a status of reduced strength, and only slightly prolong the time until it can return to a status of peak strength. It would, however, put tremendous strain on Israel's economy and warfighting capability, and thus would be net beneficial to Iran and Hezbollah.

Committing to annihilating Hezbollah necessarily involves setting up another center of power in Lebanon that can keep rival factions in check. For example in the way Saddam kept the Shi'ites in check.

Israel, however, has little capability when it comes to nation building. At least when it comes to the necessary resources. It would need to stay for many more months in Lebanon, if not years, to train and arm a local Christian and Druze population. Similar to 1982. 
The US and France can help with that. But both nations have demonstrated complete lack of appetite in resolving international conflicts and are hard focused on internal policies.

So as long as Israel cannot recruit the US to its cause, it cannot benefit from a ground incursion. Furthermore, if any policy change were to occur in that regard, it would only clarify after the US elections, which is still a long time away in the context of the current state of affairs in Lebanon.

[Mighty_Zuk]

There are various estimates about a 21 day ceasefire taking place soon between Israel and Hezbollah.

I haven't made up my mind about it. I see some positives, but mostly negatives.

[Markus Becker]

The radio says Israel agrees to a ceasefire. 

[Mighty_Zuk]

Summary of events so far, from my perspective:

• US+France are pushing for a 21 day ceasefire.
  • I don't yet understand their reasons.
  • Perhaps they now believe they have leverage to partially implement UNSC Resolution 1701 and move Hezbollah north of the Litani.
  • Likely a sign of shrinking western influence.
    
    Litani for context:
    
• Vast majority of Israeli government and Knesset oppose this, including members of both the coalition and opposition.
  • Head of Opposition Yair Lapid proposed instead a 7 day ceasefire instead. 
    • Must include terms that ensure the return of all Israeli evacuees home.
    • Short enough to prevent Hezbollah's ability to recover.
       
  • Prominent ministers have already went publicly against the reports.
  • Decision was reportedly made without consulting the cabinet.
     
• Ceasefire now will allow Hezbollah to restore capabilities.
  • Rocket launchers in ready positions can be replaced. Hezbollah has more rockets than tubes.
  • C2 capabilities including and primarily injured personnel from the pager attack can be largely restored. 
  • Mobile equipment can be safely reshuffled knowing Hezbollah has more mobile assets than Israel has recon.
  • Evacuated Lebanese may return home, thus reducing Israel's strike capabilities that rely greatly on civilian population evacuation.
  • Iran could fly in significant amounts of equipment.
    • Shoot-down impossible as Iranian logistical planes are also civilian passenger planes.
       
• Ceasefire said to be connected to a hostage deal. 
  • I find this claim to be far-fetched. Israel cannot apply any significant pressure on Hamas in that time as long as hostages are in Gaza. 
  • I don't see what Hamas stands to gain from this. 
     
• Ceasefire said to be personally motivated (Netanyahu).
  • Upcoming New York trip is referenced.
    • Many criticized him for attending an irrelevant UNGA forum when a remote speech would suffice.
  • Backlash from coalition could force him to backtrack. 
     
• Israel's soft power increased noticeably in recent weeks. Not capitalizing on it could be a big mistake.

[Mighty_Zuk]

Various government officials including Netanyahu have refused the ceasefire deal. Hezbollah has reportedly also refused and launched a rocket attack on the north.

Side note, here's a thread with some relevant maps of Lebanon:

 

[Markus Becker]

1 hour ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

Summary of events so far, from my perspective:

• US+France are pushing for a 21 day ceasefire.
  • I don't yet understand their reasons

 

Harris needs the Muslim/hard left vote in Michigan and one or two other states.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c8xejx07exro

 

[Josh]

I do not see any reason for either a ceasefire or a ground war. It seems like Israel is pummeling Hezbollah for little cost right now. Short of a deal with Hamas to return hostages, there does not really seem to be a reason to allow Hez to recover, nor a reason to play to its strengths on the ground. I think all of the talk about a ground incursion is a deliberate attempt to force Hezbollah units to remain in the field where they are more vulnerable rather than an impending threat.

[futon]

The Japanese government is making arrangements for a JASDF C-2 to fly to Jordan to evacuate the approximate 50 Japanese citizens (embassy staff etc.) that are in Lebannon. The C-2 will depart the earliest of October 1st.

https://news.ntv.co.jp/category/politics/adf5d33a3d274b23a6c36c2e684d4b92

I reckon other countries have a larger number of their people in Lebannon. If for anything else, the ceasefire could be to buy time for evacuations.

Edited September 26 by futon

[Josh]

From the U.S. and French point of view, the calls for a ceasefire seem more domestically motivated and to placate criticism in the Arab world. I do not think France is in a position to impose anything and neither is Biden from a practical standpoint, assuming he even wanted to, which I doubt. Come Nov 5th Biden is a lame duck who can do whatever he wants for three months - I expect some radical changes if Trump is elected but no change to Israeli related policy regardless. For all the whining about current US policy to Israel, 50,000 tons and counting of weapons have been shipped there. There is verbal criticism but overall tacit support.

 

It is worth noting none of three presidents/candidates have any intention of getting directly involved in Lebanon or starting a conflict with Iran.

Edited September 26 by Josh

[Mighty_Zuk]

This strike occurred just 300m from the previous assassination in Dahiyeh, Beirut.

Marvelous strike!

57 minutes ago, futon said:

I reckon other countries have a larger number of their people in Lebannon. If for anything else, the ceasefire could be to buy time for evacuations.

Good point.

1 hour ago, Josh said:

I think all of the talk about a ground incursion is a deliberate attempt to force Hezbollah units to remain in the field where they are more vulnerable rather than an impending threat.

Calling up reservists is healthy precaution, and analysts talking about it is healthy public discourse.

[Mighty_Zuk]

6 minutes ago, Josh said:

For all the whining about current US policy to Israel, 50,000 tons and counting of weapons have been shipped there. There is verbal criticism but overall tacit support.

That's very little. You have no idea the amount of resources Israel expends just to appease the US. Far, far exceeding any amount provided by the US. A single day of fighting in Gaza costs over $150 million. 

In just the 2 months the US asked Israel to delay the Rafah op it burnt through more resources than the US has provided in the last 11 months.

The US is in a serious deficit in the aid-requests balance.

[Josh]

Did Israel burn through 50,000 tons of bombs and artillery in two months?

Edited September 26 by Josh

[Mighty_Zuk]

1 minute ago, Josh said:

Did Israel burn through 50,000 tons of bombs and artillery in two months?

Are you actually asking or just baiting?

[Josh]

3 minutes ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

Are you actually asking or just baiting?

I’m actually asking: do you mean Israel burned through other resources, including economic resources, or are you contending that it specifically burned through more ammunition than what the U.S. provided? If the latter is untrue, is there any other source of ammunition that would meet the need?

Also a serious question that I do not knows the answer to: is Israel being charged for this ammunition?

[Mighty_Zuk]

Just now, Josh said:

I’m actually asking: do you mean Israel burned through other resources, including economic resources, or are you contending that it specifically burned through more ammunition than what the U.S. provided? If the latter is untrue, is there any other source of ammunition that would meet the need?

Israel burnt through a lot of the materials provided, I'd say a majority. It definitely had huge stocks prior and the aid is to refill some. But it also burnt through a lot of other assets.

If as a consequence of prolonging the war by 2 months at the US's request - 2,000 more interceptors are fired, 500 more homes suffer damage and insurance claims are made (government policy, not private companies), 50 more people die (compensation for families), and 500,000 more flight hours are logged, but no 155mm shells are fired, 

But the US provides 200,000 155mm artillery shells in that time, then it's wrong to say Israel received more aid than it used. The total would be the subtraction, and eventually, yes, Israel received far less than it is owed.

Total war costs as of a few weeks ago were NIS 260 billion, which is $70 billion. The US hasn't provided even 10% of that.

And even if it did, it must always be divided by a factor as purchasing power in the US is much lower than in Israel. Buying 1 munition in USD can buy several in NIS.

Just now, Josh said:

Also a serious question that I do not knows the answer to: is Israel being charged for this ammunition?

Yes, of course. Almost 2,000 lives, and 100,000 refugees. Want some more?

[glenn239]

3 hours ago, Josh said:

I do not see any reason for either a ceasefire or a ground war. It seems like Israel is pummeling Hezbollah for little cost right now. Short of a deal with Hamas to return hostages, there does not really seem to be a reason to allow Hez to recover

 

What does Hezbollah have to do with the Hamas hostage situation?