rmgill Posted July 22 Share Posted July 22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seahawk Posted July 22 Share Posted July 22 God is paving the road for Trump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stuart Galbraith Posted July 22 Share Posted July 22 (edited) The narrative is that Kamala cannot win, because she has run disastrous campaigns. What is perhaps worth remembering is that Biden spent his entire life running disastrous campaigns, but still won, because he was the only one on offer as an alternative to Trump. The lesson is, you dont have to be good, just just need to be better than your opponent. Ask George Bush. When it was two old white guys, both apparently with vascular dementure, both increasingly incoherent, there wasnt much of a choice. Now there is about as much choice as you can get. Doesnt mean anyone will take it of course, but now they cant say its just two old white guys getting angry at rainclouds. Its a proper election at last, rather than sewn up between cliques. I think Trump has trouble. Not least because he has erected an entire rampart to defend against Biden, created an entire narrative about 'crooked Biden, worst President ever'. and now iets entirely a different opponent. She isnt like Hilary and comes from a political clan. Alright, you can certainly make a case she is a career politician, but so is Trump now, considering this is now his third campaign. The narrative he is the Washington outsider is no longer quite as true as it once was. Yes, she may well lose. Im just saying that the claim that the election had been handed to Trump on a silver platter by the assassination attempt is no longer true. Now he has to work at it. And with backing by people like Biden and more importantly, Obama, I think he is going to have his work cut out. Of course, it doesnt mean the Democrats will accept her. They might have another Hubert Humphrey they want to drop on the campaign. They do seem to have something of a death wish at the moment after all. Edited July 22 by Stuart Galbraith Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wobbly Head Posted July 22 Share Posted July 22 The main reason she isn't popular is she is seen as a Didn't Earn It candidate. She may be qualified in many things but, the most powerful person on the planet should not be picked just because they filled all the boxes on a diversity quota. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stuart Galbraith Posted July 22 Share Posted July 22 I think this is why Obama wants to push a Democrat nomination process, or she is going to have that hanging over her for evermore. The irony is, if the nomination process is as bloody as they sometimes get, and she folds as she did last time, they might actually end up with a candidate like Gretchen Whitmer, whom is going to fall flat on her hass. Call it the Hubert Humphrey effect. They might just be better off taking her as she is and running with it. Lack of an endorsement from the Democrat party might actually turn out to be an advantage against Trump I think she would win, just because she isnt old, mysogynist, has a loose mouth, and doesnt want to bail on everywhere from Taiwan to Ukraine. Maybe Americans have changed a great deal over the last 8 years, but if so, they wouldnt have voted for Biden in the first place. She doesnt have to be a good candidate. She just has to be better than what she is up against, and lets face it, its not so high a bar, even if he can dodge bullets like Neo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wobbly Head Posted July 22 Share Posted July 22 I doubt she will win. The big political wave going round the world at the moment. It's not a right wing populist wave it's a anti authoritarian wave. Why the Conservatives lost the British election even being technically right wing. DEI is one of the corner stones of authoritarian polices, our rights are more equal than yours. Kamala can be seen as a figure head of this policy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
futon Posted July 22 Share Posted July 22 It's too early to call it. There's still time for mishaps, reversals, and upsets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stuart Galbraith Posted July 22 Share Posted July 22 (edited) 20 minutes ago, Wobbly Head said: I doubt she will win. The big political wave going round the world at the moment. It's not a right wing populist wave it's a anti authoritarian wave. Why the Conservatives lost the British election even being technically right wing. DEI is one of the corner stones of authoritarian polices, our rights are more equal than yours. Kamala can be seen as a figure head of this policy. You are all out of sync. The Conservatives didnt lose because of an anti authoritarian swing. They lost because they were crap. Even Conservative voters noticed, which is why they voted for everyone other than Conservative. ironically I think Sunak was about the best Prime minister they had since 2010. He should have been, they had 5 throws at it.... Frankly, I doubt Kamala will win either, Im just saying I think she has the best chance if left to get on with it. Considerably better than Biden anyway. And in truth, a lot still depends on Trump also. He only has to open his mouth and say something unwise, and my guess is he will try at some point, and he will start losing floating voters. Remember that proud boys 'stand by' moment at the last election? Im convinced thats when he threw his chance away. But the campaign right now is with him, and its impossible to deny it. Edited July 22 by Stuart Galbraith Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
futon Posted July 22 Share Posted July 22 (edited) 42 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said: ... I think she would win, just because she isnt old, mysogynist, has a loose mouth, and doesnt want to bail on everywhere from Taiwan to Ukraine. ... For conversation's sake I guess.. but there isn't enough in Trump's recent remarks to mean the extent of wanting to bail on Taiwan regardless of conditions. There's enough to work with a Trump administration. His statement may leave a moment of being on the edge, but for earning the hand of US power into the matter, then it can't be helped. Another case is certainly possible.. hearing what is wanted but then underneath actions undermine the openly made statements. So actually, still on edge, tracking where more specific actions to confirm whether or not the openly made statement holds water. On basic premise, matter on Taiwan is bipartisan. But more specific and skill in handling also matters. Some of the matters actually don't come into fruiation until next presidency anyway. And actually, the condition of the US itself matters. If the R and D split results in depilitating consequences, no foreign policy team can make up for an incompacitated US, opening up an opportunity for the PRC to cash in on its established military tempo around Taiwan. Edited July 22 by futon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stuart Galbraith Posted July 22 Share Posted July 22 The problem with Trump he says a lot of things. And as other people in the White House have noticed, he usually goes with the opinion of the last guy in the room. As the last guy in the room is likely at some point to be JD Vance, whom certainly is an isolationist, it seems logical he is going to channel a lot of his positions. TBH, Id prefer to keep the Trump stuff in the Trump thread. He spreads like a miasma throughout the site, and is talked about enough. Suffice to say, I think there are grounds to be concerned, lets just say that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
futon Posted July 22 Share Posted July 22 JD Vance clearly said he wants to focus on East Asia. To focus on China. Which to some degree is fair enough from the perspective of US strategy documents which say that the US strategy is to maintain a capacity of something like 1.5 regions force capability, IIRC. Ve capable of supporting 1 region while fully engaged in another. Right now the US is at 1.5... supporting three regions.. Ukraine, ME, and Indo-Pacific. Which means its overstrtched because no reserve capacity to handle one of the regions going into full engagement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick Posted July 22 Share Posted July 22 From the left; much blaming of rich donors and the higher ups in the Democratic Party. https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143276449 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stuart Galbraith Posted July 22 Share Posted July 22 Well not to worry, now they have a chance to nominate AOC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhoe Posted July 22 Share Posted July 22 https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/washington-secrets/3093022/if-nominee-isnt-harris-contributions-have-to-be-refunded-federal-election-commission/ Quote Vice President Kamala Harris, the second half of the now broken Biden-Harris 2024 ticket, must become the presidential nominee, or the millions of dollars their campaign has raised for the general election will have to be refunded, according to federal election rules. Nearly $100 million is at stake, the amount the Biden-Harris campaign has in the bank. The funding rules are likely to bolster efforts to unite the Democratic Party around Harris and give her a warchest to run against former President Donald Trump with. Any new nominee would have to start fundraising from scratch. I'm a little skeptical that the FEC is that hard-core. Of course, the Dems now have access to billions via dark money, so a mere $100M is probably not going to move the needle. Still, it raises questions about the mindset of those recommending an open primary (such as Obama, apparently). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmgill Posted July 22 Author Share Posted July 22 3 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said: The Conservatives didnt lose because of an anti authoritarian swing. They lost because they were crap. The democrats are ALSO crap. Crap economy. Crap border policy. Crap foreign policy. Crap domestic policy. 3 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said: Frankly, I doubt Kamala will win either, Im just saying I think she has the best chance if left to get on with it. Considerably better than Biden anyway. If Kamala is the last best hope of the Oligarch Party then well, that's typical of their quality. 3 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said: And in truth, a lot still depends on Trump also. He only has to open his mouth and say something unwise, and my guess is he will try at some point, and he will start losing floating voters. Remember that proud boys 'stand by' moment at the last election? Im convinced thats when he threw his chance away. Every time Kamala opens her mouth it's not wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmgill Posted July 22 Author Share Posted July 22 Kamala isn't liked. She didn't win her OWN state when she ran as president. She's seen as disconnected, insincere, aloof and snooty. She put people in prison for pot possession that she later admits she did herself. That doesn't sell well to voters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmgill Posted July 22 Author Share Posted July 22 (edited) Edited July 22 by rmgill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DKTanker Posted July 22 Share Posted July 22 2 hours ago, rmgill said: Kamala isn't liked. She didn't win her OWN state when she ran as president. She's seen as disconnected, insincere, aloof and snooty. She put people in prison for pot possession that she later admits she did herself. That doesn't sell well to voters. I'm going to predict something right now, you and the rest of Orange are not going to like it. Harris will be the Democratic Party Nominee / Puppet. She will be rehabilitated. Her candidacy will be based primarily on "only racists would not vote for her". She will win in November the same way her puppetmaster won in 2008. I said a year ago the first party to replace their octogenarian candidate would win the presidency in 2024. I stand by that prediction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim the Tank Nut Posted July 22 Share Posted July 22 you stand a very real chance of being right. The Borg acts as one, so does the Demcrat version and it is just as ugly and dangerous in real life as it is in fiction. The caveat to that is that every slightly independent voter KNOWS they've been taken for a ride. It's possible that will be enough... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sunday Posted July 22 Share Posted July 22 23 minutes ago, DKTanker said: the same way her puppetmaster won in 2020. FIFY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stuart Galbraith Posted July 22 Share Posted July 22 Someone made a very good point that millions have likely been expended on anti Biden campaign ads, that will now never air. Meanwhile the Democrat campaign chest is burgeoning, and any already bought attacking trump are probably still usable. Heard an interesting story on twitter. Young woman complaining about Harris because in San Francisco there was a squad of young policemen beating up youths, and got away with it .Family member got beat up by police for having the temerity to video someone else having the crap beat out of them. Harris wouldn't investigate it because it was too much like hard work.Anyone heard about it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmgill Posted July 22 Author Share Posted July 22 (edited) Biden wasn't ever the puppet master. I also question if the DNC really has their car in gear. They didn't have any ads ready to go for Kamala. Edited July 22 by rmgill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmgill Posted July 22 Author Share Posted July 22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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