Lord Trump's Gambit

[Josh]

18 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

 

I do not know if the original tweet was in jest or not, but it seems rather pointless to repost it here. It’s either a straw man argument or an unfunny joke.

[Stuart Galbraith]

It made me laugh, and its no worse than 9/10th of the stuff that's posted in the FFZ.

[futon]

8 hours ago, Josh said:

A US-PRC war would necessarily involve a massive trade dislocation for both, and probably the world in general. It is hard to imagine a global depression is prevented in such a conflict. But Xi might feel that the potential of a Chinese century is slipping through his fingers and go the Russian route. There are some parallels with current day China and WWII Japan, if one substitutes high technology imports for oil.

That's an overstatement. PRC has some high technology ability, outside high technology cannot be 100 cut off, and everything doesn't come to a halt without it. And the global context is different. 

Edited May 20, 2024 by futon

[futon]

6 hours ago, Josh said:

Well Aegis has changed rather dramatically since then; it’s not like either the hardware or software has been standing still all that time. There were at least 9 different arrangements, with the virtualization being the 10th iteration of a Baseline 9 configuration. So even the oldest ships have a considerably more advanced configuration than the 80s.

One old trait is that the Burkes can't do air defense and ABM defense at the same time. 

[futon]

8 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Well I dont disagree. But we still have to retain a garrison, and it remains extremely expensive to maintain.

Id like to believe it realistic we could provide an aircraft carrier for use in the pacific. But in truth, till we develop hypersonic antiship missiles (and hopefully anti ballistic missile defence capability), as well as the manpower to sustain such an eventuality, its going to remain a nice idea. And will remain on the back burner, simply because the pacific isnt at the core of our interests.

Its not that I dont want us to do such things. But I want a British base on mars as well. I dont believe we can afford to do that either.

Well without Charles De Gaulle coming here to balance against 🙃, and the Ukraine War going, fair enough.

[Josh]

3 hours ago, futon said:

One old trait is that the Burkes can't do air defense and ABM defense at the same time. 

The newest iterations can, although I imagine there are not many of them. I believe the virtualized Aegis is baseline 10, which emulates baseline 9:

"Onboard command and control is governed by the Aegis Combat System, which has been gradually improved through a series of hardware and software upgrades called “baselines.” The most recent version, Baseline 9, allows for a single ship to conduct both ballistic missile defense and air defense operations simultaneously. Prior baselines permitted only one of these missions at a time, usually requiring Aegis ships to operate in pairs."

[SNIP]

"Contemporaneous to the development of Aegis BMD, the Aegis Combat System more broadly had been undergoing considerable evolution as well since the late 1990s, changes that made the ACS capable of more complex tasks and even greater future potential. The advancement is Baseline 9, also known in the Aegis Modernization Program as Advanced Capability Build 12 (ACB12). Baseline 9 is arguably the most significant Baseline change yet for the ACS.

Among numerous enhancements, Baseline 9 completes the replaces the MILSPEC computers on Aegis platforms with commercial of the shelf computers which include both air defense and BMD functions in the same hardare mainframes. This along with the addition of a new multimission signal processor enables an Aegis Baseline 9 equipped platform to conduct BMD and air defense missions nearly simultaneously.

The newest Aegis upgrade, Baseline 10, is also underway and will incorporate the newer SPY-6 (AMDR) radar. Certification is expected in 2023 timeframe."

 

https://missilethreat.csis.org/system/aegis/

 

Edited May 21, 2024 by Josh

[Josh]

3 hours ago, futon said:

That's an overstatement. PRC has some high technology ability, outside high technology cannot be 100 cut off, and everything doesn't come to a halt without it. And the global context is different. 

I was thinking specifically in terms of chip production, especially of higher end chips. The US is actively attempting to deny China advanced chip technology and the country that produces over a third of them lies just across the straight, were China to start a war over it. It is only a superficial comparison, but broadly speaking the US is trying to contain China diplomatically, economically, and technologically in an effort to wait China out. The more confident Xi is that the US will fall apart first, or that China's economic and military superiority is inevitable, the less likely a war, IMO. If he were to think that China was no longer on an comparatively upward trajectory...or especially if it was on a downward one...then I think the calculation could change pretty drastically.

[futon]

2 hours ago, Josh said:

The newest iterations can, although I imagine there are not many of them. I believe the virtualized Aegis is baseline 10, which emulates baseline 9:

"Onboard command and control is governed by the Aegis Combat System, which has been gradually improved through a series of hardware and software upgrades called “baselines.” The most recent version, Baseline 9, allows for a single ship to conduct both ballistic missile defense and air defense operations simultaneously. Prior baselines permitted only one of these missions at a time, usually requiring Aegis ships to operate in pairs."

[SNIP]

"Contemporaneous to the development of Aegis BMD, the Aegis Combat System more broadly had been undergoing considerable evolution as well since the late 1990s, changes that made the ACS capable of more complex tasks and even greater future potential. The advancement is Baseline 9, also known in the Aegis Modernization Program as Advanced Capability Build 12 (ACB12). Baseline 9 is arguably the most significant Baseline change yet for the ACS.

Among numerous enhancements, Baseline 9 completes the replaces the MILSPEC computers on Aegis platforms with commercial of the shelf computers which include both air defense and BMD functions in the same hardare mainframes. This along with the addition of a new multimission signal processor enables an Aegis Baseline 9 equipped platform to conduct BMD and air defense missions nearly simultaneously.

The newest Aegis upgrade, Baseline 10, is also underway and will incorporate the newer SPY-6 (AMDR) radar. Certification is expected in 2023 timeframe."

 

https://missilethreat.csis.org/system/aegis/

 

Oh ok, nice.

[futon]

2 hours ago, Josh said:

I was thinking specifically in terms of chip production, especially of higher end chips. The US is actively attempting to deny China advanced chip technology and the country that produces over a third of them lies just across the straight, were China to start a war over it. It is only a superficial comparison, but broadly speaking the US is trying to contain China diplomatically, economically, and technologically in an effort to wait China out. The more confident Xi is that the US will fall apart first, or that China's economic and military superiority is inevitable, the less likely a war, IMO. If he were to think that China was no longer on an comparatively upward trajectory...or especially if it was on a downward one...then I think the calculation could change pretty drastically.

It's only a matter of time that China can make its own high-end chips. They aren't critically needed for daily operation, like oil is. 

[Josh]

1 hour ago, futon said:

It's only a matter of time that China can make its own high-end chips. They aren't critically needed for daily operation, like oil is. 

I have no doubt China will advance; I doubt it will keep up. Chinese chip production is mild, especially considering the low end margins it fills and the investment it has put in. Sans foreign technology, China is not catching up this decade, possibly even the next. And that assumes its economy suffers no permanent headwinds. China has desperately been trying to break into this sector with little success. Its production of 7nm chips likely obscures a very inefficient recovery rate of production per batch.

China will be stuck on a lower chip tech level and production run without a major change. Taking Taiwan might do it. If nothing else, it can at least level the playing field by denying those chips to the rest of the world, elevating its own chips. It likely could force whatever it wants from the ROK in that situation as well, assuming the U.S. is defeated in the region.

Edited May 21, 2024 by Josh

[futon]

2 hours ago, Josh said:

I have no doubt China will advance; I doubt it will keep up. Chinese chip production is mild, especially considering the low end margins it fills and the investment it has put in. Sans foreign technology, China is not catching up this decade, possibly even the next. And that assumes its economy suffers no permanent headwinds. China has desperately been trying to break into this sector with little success. Its production of 7nm chips likely obscures a very inefficient recovery rate of production per batch.

China will be stuck on a lower chip tech level and production run without a major change. Taking Taiwan might do it. If nothing else, it can at least level the playing field by denying those chips to the rest of the world, elevating its own chips. It likely could force whatever it wants from the ROK in that situation as well, assuming the U.S. is defeated in the region.

High end chips is surely a thing China will want. But is it enough to trigger China into an attempt to take Taiwan prematurely in a way like Imperial Japan blitzing the region to secure the oil? No. 

High end chips is for only high end stuff. The great majority of a population wouldn't know the difference if high end chips became unavailable.

Take away the oil.. rich or poor, the great majority of any country takes a huge impact.

So no parallel. 

[Stuart Galbraith]

I dont see taking Taiwan for the chips is plausible. For one thing, if the market that requires those chips goes away in response (we CAN build our own chip manufactory's, if we chose), then they really havent gained anything. And to be honest, is it really beyond the Taiwanese to wire the buildings with explosives in a crisis, and blow them up if they look like they are losing them? At which point, they have gained absolutely nothing at all.

It is, one could argue, just like reclaiming the historic chinese artifacts in the Taiwanese museums, a 'McGuffin'. It appears to be an important plot point, but when you get down to it, it really doesnt seem to make any damn sense.

Far more sense would be if they see Taiwan sponsoring dissent in China. Which yes, arguably they should be doing, but being sensible guys, really do seem to know better. Even the loudspeakers that shouted propaganda at china across the straight have been turned off.

[urbanoid]

Just now, Stuart Galbraith said:

I dont see taking Taiwan for the chips is plausible. For one thing, if the market that requires those chips goes away in response (we CAN build our own chip manufactory's, if we chose), then they really havent gained anything. And to be honest, is it really beyond the Taiwanese to wire the buildings with explosives in a crisis, and blow them up if they look like they are losing them? At which point, they have gained absolutely nothing at all.

It is, one could argue, just like reclaiming the historic chinese artifacts in the Taiwanese museums, a 'McGuffin'. It appears to be an important plot point, but when you get down to it, it really doesnt seem to make any damn sense.

Far more sense would be if they see Taiwan sponsoring dissent in China. Which yes, arguably they should be doing, but being sensible guys, really do seem to know better. Even the loudspeakers that shouted propaganda at china across the straight have been turned off.

I don't think it's beyond the US to blow the industry to smithereens if they decided they lost the war, just so Chynah can't have it either.

[Stuart Galbraith]

Sure. America have enough chips, why should they leave them to china to exploit in a new generation of weapon systems? Its a risk that is difficult for China to assess, because it comes down to whatever President is in America on the day. Biden might not do it, but Trump might.

A war drastically increases the chance of Taiwanese chips being places out of China's reach. At which point they are going to be reduced to where Russia is, begging around on the international market for scraps. Its hard to see the PRC economy florishing well in this kind of environment. Why, they might even have to invade India just, to steal the washing machines.

 

[futon]

The prize of getting Taiwan is a buffer for the Mainland coast, breaking the 1st island chain. Those things would give the PRC greater geographical strategic advantage. 

Yes, I agree, the desire for the chip stuff isn't really it, because the Taiwanese thenselves have no reason to not blow it up if they are about to be successfully annexd. 

[futon]

20 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Sure. America have enough chips, why should they leave them to china to exploit in a new generation of weapon systems? Its a risk that is difficult for China to assess, because it comes down to whatever President is in America on the day. Biden might not do it, but Trump might.

A war drastically increases the chance of Taiwanese chips being places out of China's reach. At which point they are going to be reduced to where Russia is, begging around on the international market for scraps. Its hard to see the PRC economy florishing well in this kind of environment. Why, they might even have to invade India just, to steal the washing machines.

 

Chinese company Hisense makes washing machines. It's based in Shandong. Shandong the prefecture, not the carrier.

[Stuart Galbraith]

22 minutes ago, futon said:

The prize of getting Taiwan is a buffer for the Mainland coast, breaking the 1st island chain. Those things would give the PRC greater geographical strategic advantage. 

Yes, I agree, the desire for the chip stuff isn't really it, because the Taiwanese thenselves have no reason to not blow it up if they are about to be successfully annexd. 

Well, supposedly they want the Spratleys, because that gives them access to the fish, that helps them become self sufficient. But you know, its a country of over 1.4 billion people. The idea that they are going to be self sufficient by dominating the Western pacific ocean for the fish stocks, is as cracked as the idea that they are after the Taiwanese chip industry. For one thing thats going to require a truly massiive fishing fleet. Its going to require a navy big enough to defend it when they come into conflict with Japan or Korea (which they will). And its going to require a gargantuan distribution network to land all that fish and distribute it though china before it all goes off. All that, to me, looks a tall order. And destabilising of the security they presumably value so much.

Of course, just because its a dumb plan, doesnt mean it isnt the plan, but still...

Sure they want to dominate the area. Yes, they want to try to drive US influence out. But I struggle to detect any joined up policy than that. These other things look like aspirations. But its difficult to believe they are things in themselves they would go to war over. Taiwan becoming independent, yes, I could imagine they WOULD fight over that. But the other things? It destroys the very thing they value most for their rise, security. And you only have to look at the amount of wars Germany fought, that actually delayed its domination of the European continent fiscally.

China can make the same mistake, even if it won.

Just now, futon said:

Chinese company Hisense makes washing machines. It's based in Shandong. Shandong the prefecture, not the carrier.

It was just a wry comment about Russia 'supposedly' stealing Ukrainian washing machines, to access all the microchips. Its been widely discredited.

Basically I was trying to be funny, and its usually a mistake here.

 

[futon]

1 minute ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Well, supposedly they want the Spratleys, because that gives them access to the fish, that helps them become self sufficient. But you know, its a country of over 1.4 billion people. The idea that they are going to be self sufficient by dominating the Western pacific ocean for the fish stocks, is as cracked as the idea that they are after the Taiwanese chip industry. For one thing thats going to require a truly massiive fishing fleet. Its going to require a navy big enough to defend it when they come into conflict with Japan or Korea (which they will). And its going to require a gargantuan distribution network to land all that fish and distribute it though china before it all goes off. All that, to me, looks a tall order. And destabilising of the security they presumably value so much.

Of course, just because its a dumb plan, doesnt mean it isnt the plan, but still...

Sure they want to dominate the area. Yes, they want to try to drive US influence out. But I struggle to detect any joined up policy than that. These other things look like aspirations. But its difficult to believe they are things in themselves they would go to war over. Taiwan becoming independent, yes, I could imagine they WOULD fight over that. But the other things? It destroys the very thing they value most for their rise, security. And you only have to look at the amount of wars Germany fought, that actually delayed its domination of the European continent fiscally.

China can make the same mistake, even if it won.

It was just a wry comment about Russia 'supposedly' stealing Ukrainian washing machines, to access all the microchips. Its been widely discredited.

Basically I was trying to be funny, and its usually a mistake here.

 

All that fishing, and they might scoop up Godzilla. 

 

Oh, I thought I responded in a funny way. See, of course a washing machine making company would be based in a prefecture, not in a carrier. 

[Stuart Galbraith]

4 minutes ago, futon said:

All that fishing, and they might scoop up Godzilla. 

 

Oh, I thought I responded in a funny way. See, of course a washing machine making company would be based in a prefecture, not in a carrier. 

Now you see, THATS funny. XI vs Godzilla. Thats the kind of imagination Hollywood lacks. 

 

[futon]

1 minute ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Now you see, THATS funny. XI vs Godzilla. Thats the kind of imagination Hollywood lacks. 

 

(⌒‐⌒)

[Ivanhoe]

2 hours ago, futon said:

Oh, I thought I responded in a funny way. See, of course a washing machine making company would be based in a prefecture, not in a carrier. 

Stop being an agitator. 😉

[Ivanhoe]

2 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Now you see, THATS funny. XI vs Godzilla. Thats the kind of imagination Hollywood lacks. 

 

Crouching Tiger, Sloshing Jumpsuits.

[urbanoid]

2 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Now you see, THATS funny. XI vs Godzilla. Thats the kind of imagination Hollywood lacks. 

 

Kim is already on it. Thank you, Kim.

[futon]

4 minutes ago, Ivanhoe said:

Stop being an agitator. 😉

Unfair accusations I tell you!

[futon]

8 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

Kim is already on it. Thank you, Kim.

Sounds like an Austin Powers movie.