Mr King Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 16 hours ago, Skywalkre said: We probably have a higher ratio of shills here on TN than reddit does. Your on drugs if you seriously believe that. Reddit recently changed its ad policy to allow viral ads which appear as normal posts. Political action groups like ActBlue, ShareBlue. and Correct the Record have been in control of a number of subs and active across Reddit for a while now. There are two or four super mods who have power over like 90 of the most popular subs. They have stifled all true dissenting speech since they started doing things like shutting down / taking control / installing their own mods in subs like TheDonald and Kotakuinaction. Mods have started helping dox people who speak against the narrative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Josh Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 YouGov is not a highly rated polling org, IIRC correctly. But it’s notable they register a 46/46 dead heat in NC. The Harris campaign thinks it can win there, due to an influx of young residents since 2020 and the lowest margin of any state Biden lost (1.3%). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
17thfabn Posted August 13 Author Share Posted August 13 Something I thought of recently that probably doesn't really matter but I find interesting. Donald Trump born in 1946 is among the first of the baby boomers. Kamala Harris and her running mate Tim Walz were both born in 1964 making them the last of the baby boomers. BTW I think Walz looks ten years older than Harris. Generation X was skipped over. Trump's running mate, JD Vance born in 1981 is among the first of generation Y. (generation Y 1981-1996) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhoe Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 GenXers are too busy bitching about Millennials. p.s. don't ask me what that's all about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bojan Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 Boomers are bitching about milenials, Xers are bitching about zoomers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
urbanoid Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 And everyone is bitching about boomers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sunday Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 11 minutes ago, urbanoid said: And everyone is bitching about boomers. The Day of the Pillow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim Sielbeck Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
17thfabn Posted August 23 Author Share Posted August 23 RFK JR. has dropped out of the race for the White House. Surprisingly this prince of the Democratic Party by his relation to the fabled Kennedy family has thrown his support to Trump. I'm sure the rest of the Kennedy clan sees him as the crazy uncle who should be in the attic, but some how got out. https://www.npr.org/2024/08/23/nx-s1-5086838/robert-kennedy-future-plans-trump https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/rfk-jr-says-court-filing-endorsing-trump-ending-presidential-hopes-rcna165936 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmgill Posted August 23 Share Posted August 23 On 8/11/2024 at 12:23 PM, Mr King said: Your on drugs if you seriously believe that. Well, I was paid by Turner/CNN for decades. Maybe he means me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmgill Posted August 23 Share Posted August 23 1 hour ago, 17thfabn said: RFK JR. has dropped out of the race for the White House. Did you see how the prince of the DNC was given no chance to run? And how they used law-fare to keep him off of ballots? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmgill Posted August 23 Share Posted August 23 On 8/12/2024 at 9:43 PM, 17thfabn said: Generation X was skipped over. Trump's running mate, JD Vance born in 1981 is among the first of generation Y. (generation Y 1981-1996) We don’t have time for that Bullcrap! The laundry needs to be done during our school work and making dinner for our junior siblings while our single mom is still at work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skywalkre Posted August 24 Share Posted August 24 3 hours ago, 17thfabn said: RFK JR. has dropped out of the race for the White House. Surprisingly this prince of the Democratic Party by his relation to the fabled Kennedy family has thrown his support to Trump. I'm sure the rest of the Kennedy clan sees him as the crazy uncle who should be in the attic, but some how got out. https://www.npr.org/2024/08/23/nx-s1-5086838/robert-kennedy-future-plans-trump https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/rfk-jr-says-court-filing-endorsing-trump-ending-presidential-hopes-rcna165936 Now we know who they were actually siphoning votes from. His VP pick was on a podcast recently and said as much - that at this point they were just hurting Trump and handing the Presidency to the Ds. Considering how tight this race is this could be a big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skywalkre Posted August 24 Share Posted August 24 Per Zeihan now we wait about two weeks and can finally start to pay attention to polls. He's argued historically true independents don't start getting involved (and that they've likely been ignoring pollsters leading up to this point) til after the last convention. Given it takes a while for good polls to get tallied about two weeks should be a good point to see if numbers start to shift. Back in '22 these independents went heavily towards the Ds given abortion and concern over the safety of democracy. The former is still a big deal to many voters but questions remain if it will drive folks out to vote without a corresponding ballot measure. The latter has been inconsistent in polling as to whether folks still consider it a priority. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmgill Posted August 24 Share Posted August 24 1 hour ago, Skywalkre said: Now we know who they were actually siphoning votes from. His VP pick was on a podcast recently and said as much - that at this point they were just hurting Trump and handing the Presidency to the Ds. Considering how tight this race is this could be a big deal. That he and his running mate can be on better terms with Trump than the DNC should tell you something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Josh Posted August 24 Share Posted August 24 9 hours ago, 17thfabn said: RFK JR. has dropped out of the race for the White House. Surprisingly this prince of the Democratic Party by his relation to the fabled Kennedy family has thrown his support to Trump. I'm sure the rest of the Kennedy clan sees him as the crazy uncle who should be in the attic, but some how got out. https://www.npr.org/2024/08/23/nx-s1-5086838/robert-kennedy-future-plans-trump https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/rfk-jr-says-court-filing-endorsing-trump-ending-presidential-hopes-rcna165936 I do not think anyone ever uses the phrase “DINO”, but RFK certainly qualifies. His family has condemned him. Most polling seemed to indicate he was taking as many votes away from Trump as Biden, possibly more. His exit likely does not change the race that significantly, other than buying himself a position in the Trump administration should he win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Josh Posted August 24 Share Posted August 24 8 hours ago, rmgill said: Did you see how the prince of the DNC was given no chance to run? And how they used law-fare to keep him off of ballots? Actually he himself is attempting to remove his name from the AZ ballot, presumably as a favor to Trump. Also I do not think he is the “Prince of the DNC”; he has always been roundly rejected by the party and its voters. He just happens to have a lot of name recognition among Dems for historical reasons. It would kinda be like if a descendent of Reagan ran with Bernie’s platform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Josh Posted August 24 Share Posted August 24 4 hours ago, rmgill said: That he and his running mate can be on better terms with Trump than the DNC should tell you something. Yes, that he never had a particularly democrat esque platform to begin with. Also that he apparently wants a position of power more than he cares about with who; he apparently approached the Harris campaign and asked for a cabinet position if he dropped out. Apparently Trump took that offer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Josh Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 Trump might now back out of the presidential debate. The Harris campaign interestingly enough has asked for a change of rules: they want microphones to be unmuted for the entire debate. I would assume that they think Trump's style of constant interruptions and talking over people would be beneficial to Harris. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stefan Fredriksson Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 He will only back out because the win is too easy, either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
17thfabn Posted August 26 Author Share Posted August 26 Former Congress Member Tulsi Gabbard has endorsed Trump for President. https://apnews.com/article/tulsi-gabbard-donald-trump-8da616fd76d55bb63b5ee347f904fcbc She would be a great spokesperson for Trump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skywalkre Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 4 hours ago, Josh said: Trump might now back out of the presidential debate. The Harris campaign interestingly enough has asked for a change of rules: they want microphones to be unmuted for the entire debate. I would assume that they think Trump's style of constant interruptions and talking over people would be beneficial to Harris. There's no way. It'd be a bitch move and his own supporters were giving him shit when it looked like he might not go through with the original debate planned with Biden. There's no issue saying no to changes wanting to be made this late, but backing out completely...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Josh Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 48 minutes ago, Skywalkre said: There's no way. It'd be a bitch move and his own supporters were giving him shit when it looked like he might not go through with the original debate planned with Biden. There's no issue saying no to changes wanting to be made this late, but backing out completely...? It’s probably more of an idle threat. I am curious about the mic change though - apparently Trump is pro but his campaign is not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skywalkre Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 Just now, Josh said: It’s probably more of an idle threat. I am curious about the mic change though - apparently Trump is pro but his campaign is not. The bolded bit I believe. I've been seeing a lot of stories in recent weeks of how Trump is blowing off his advisors to his own detriment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Josh Posted August 31 Share Posted August 31 (edited) I was trying to figure out why a poll from July had overwhelming support for the Florida Amendment 4 (like >70%) and another more recent one had the measure polling at just 56%. It turns out the reason is undecided voters: what almost none of the articles covering the August poll note is that only a minority of 21% were firmly opposed to the amendment with 23% undecided. I suspect this has to do either with how the question was phrased or the options given. The first poll had a “probably” answer where as the more recent merely had pro, con, or undecided. That’s a horrible place to be for the opposing side, since just 4% making a yes decision would decide the issue. I suspect it passes, and if it does it is probably because DeSantis doubled down and shortened the timeframe to six weeks which even Trump thinks is “too short”. More broadly it seems like Republicans and republican leaning independents voting yes are simply willing to split the ticket on that one referendum; it does not look like it is having a major effect in federal elections. Most polls have Trump ahead at a healthy 5%, which is what you would expect from a former swing state that he won by 3+ in 2020 that has only gained an influx of Republican voters since. What could be pivotal however is how the referendum effects Scott’s election: he has never won by much more than 2%, and that is roughly where polls have him now. In a similar vein, Cruz is now only low single digits ahead in a state that has a solid abortion ban. These represent the only pickup possibilities the Democrats have in the senate, in a year that heavily favors Republicans. WV is basically a given, and there are competitive races in MD, WI, PA along with the OH and WA seats that in firmly red states. Honestly with any other presidential candidate this should have been a GOP senatorial blow out. It appears more likely to be a ~2 seat pick up instead (which is enough of course). Edited August 31 by Josh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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