U.S. Federal Elections 2024, Presidential, Senate and U.S. House of Representatives

[sunday]

 

[JWB]

 

[17thfabn]

It appears that Harris has chosen Tim Walz Governor of Minnesota as her vice presidential running mate.

Until recently it was thought that  Pennsylvania's Governor Josh Shapiro was the odds on favorite.

Looks like Harris is going for the old white guy vote? 

I am surprised by this pick. If Harris loses in Minnesota it is probably a blow out. Pennsylvania is a critical swing state if she has a chance to win so Governor Shapiro would make more sense I would think.

I had seen some reports that because Shapiro is Jewish it was thought to be a negative with leftist pro Palestinian elements in the Democratic party. 

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/harris-picks-minnesota-gov-tim-walz-running-mate-rcna163448

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/harris-picks-minnesota-gov-tim-walz-running-mate-rcna163448

[rmgill]

 

[17thfabn]

Governor Tim Walz of Minnesota. He reminds me of former V.P. Dick Cheney. 

I have a father in law who is a Union Democrat. He is against everything the Democrat party stands for today ...... except union issues. Maybe he is the demographic they are trying to appeal to? The old white guy vote?

Maybe they will have a call in where "angry old white guys for Kamala " call in and are allowed to talk!

Edited August 6 by 17thfabn

[rmgill]

 

So just on those two, it's evident that Tim Walz is a super progressive when it comes to BLM, Riots and immigrants. 

Edited August 6 by rmgill

[rmgill]

Helps if I post in the correct thread. 

 

Edited August 6 by rmgill

[Josh]

23 minutes ago, 17thfabn said:

It appears that Harris has chosen Tim Walz Governor of Minnesota as her vice presidential running mate.

Until recently it was thought that  Pennsylvania's Governor Josh Shapiro was the odds on favorite.

Looks like Harris is going for the old white guy vote? 

I am surprised by this pick. If Harris loses in Minnesota it is probably a blow out. Pennsylvania is a critical swing state if she has a chance to win so Governor Shapiro would make more sense I would think.

I had seen some reports that because Shapiro is Jewish it was thought to be a negative with leftist pro Palestinian elements in the Democratic party. 

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/harris-picks-minnesota-gov-tim-walz-running-mate-rcna163448

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/harris-picks-minnesota-gov-tim-walz-running-mate-rcna163448

Historically VPs do not really seem to bring many home state votes with them, though this election is likely going to be so close (decided by <100,000 votes across several states) that I still thought Shapiro was the obvious choice to pander to PA voters. PA is the largest swing state and it seems unlikely either side wins without it.

My guess is that the Walz pick is to please progressives in the party and avoid any internal controversy on the immigration (Kelly) or Israel (Shapiro) issues. Plus I think both had potential legal issues/allegations leveled at them. Walz is a move to not rock the boat and maintain momentum and enthusiasm.

[17thfabn]

3 minutes ago, Josh said:

Walz is a move to not rock the boat and maintain momentum and enthusiasm.

I expect that Walz will not rock the boat. I don't expect that he will bring much enthusiasm. 

[rmgill]

Its a way of clinching a specific state. And he's not Jewish so the Hamas segment of the DNC won't be upset. 

[Josh]

14 minutes ago, 17thfabn said:

I expect that Walz will not rock the boat. I don't expect that he will bring much enthusiasm. 

Agreed, but he does not take anything away from Harris enthusiasm either. Shapiro in particular would probably ignite an Israel/Palestine discussion in the news cycle. Timing wise, she wants to keep the “honeymoon period” going through the convention.

[Josh]

13 minutes ago, rmgill said:

Its a way of clinching a specific state. And he's not Jewish so the Hamas segment of the DNC won't be upset. 

MN did not need to be clinched. Even Biden was winning it. Harris took it completely off the table, if it was ever in doubt. Losing MN would be like Trump losing NC: it probably means a landslide election anyway. Actually NC was only 1.3% for Trump in 2020 and has had a huge influx of younger residents and is likely in play. it would be closer to Trump losing FL.

[Skywalkre]

1 hour ago, 17thfabn said:

I expect that Walz will not rock the boat. I don't expect that he will bring much enthusiasm. 

Ds apparently like him.  There have been lots of posts on reddit in the last week voicing support for him.

What I'm still trying to figure out is what happened to Kelly?  He seemed like a no-brainer for a pick.  I'm searching this morning for stories about what might have been the reason he wasn't picked and all I can find right now is some unions weren't happy with him... over not sponsoring a bill he was going to vote for anyway.  Wtf?  I saw some reporting last night that Harris didn't know any of these individuals she was looking at and is genuinely looking for someone to govern alongside with.  The speculation was her pick could simply come down to who she seemed to 'click' with over these last few days of interviews.  Maybe she didn't click with Kelly.

Still, at first glance this seems like a 'meh' pick coming from someone who's a moderate.  Ds are just coalescing around themselves... where Kelly (or Shapiro) would have been a nod to the moderate camp.

ETA - Considering how important PA is going to be, given all the early projections, still odd it wasn't Shapiro.  Given current polling (which has to be taken with a grain of salt) PA basically is the deciding state as to who wins this election.

ETA2 - If you go to reddit right now there are several front page posts with nothing but praise for Walz.

Edited August 6 by Skywalkre

[JWB]

 

[rmgill]

1 hour ago, Skywalkre said:

Ds apparently like him.  There have been lots of posts on reddit in the last week voicing support for him.

Of course. They're grasping onto the next new thing. Socialism not withstanding.  He was governor over the George Floyd riots in Minnesota. So...how'd that work out?  
 

1 hour ago, Skywalkre said:

What I'm still trying to figure out is what happened to Kelly?  He seemed like a no-brainer for a pick.  I'm searching this morning for stories about what might have been the reason he wasn't picked and all I can find right now is some unions weren't happy with him... over not sponsoring a bill he was going to vote for anyway.  Wtf?  I saw some reporting last night that Harris didn't know any of these individuals she was looking at and is genuinely looking for someone to govern alongside with.  The speculation was her pick could simply come down to who she seemed to 'click' with over these last few days of interviews.  Maybe she didn't click with Kelly.

Tim Pool notes that perhaps the Harris Campaign is worried that Minnesota is still in play and this is an attempt to clinch Minnesota. 

 

1 hour ago, Skywalkre said:

Still, at first glance this seems like a 'meh' pick coming from someone who's a moderate.  Ds are just coalescing around themselves... where Kelly (or Shapiro) would have been a nod to the moderate camp.

Shapiro isn't that moderate. And he was also disliked by the Hamas wing of the DNC. 
 

 

[Josh]

Cook Report downgraded AZ, GA, and NV from lean R to toss up, joining the three blue wall states.

[17thfabn]

1 hour ago, Josh said:

Cook Report downgraded AZ, GA, and NV from lean R to toss up, joining the three blue wall states.

You have to wonder if it would be close if the Republicans had nominated some one who was close to Trump in political positions, with out the baggage such as Governor DeSantis.

[Skywalkre]

Trump is back in on the ABC debate.  Their internal polling must be showing a shift as well for him to feel he needs this.

[Josh]

4 hours ago, 17thfabn said:

You have to wonder if it would be close if the Republicans had nominated some one who was close to Trump in political positions, with out the baggage such as Governor DeSantis.

That’s honestly an interesting question. I personally think DeSantis would do better, but obviously there’s no way to know. I think Haley’s numbers would not have moved an inch, but again that is a gut feeling, not something that can be determined.

What I will say is that both parties were backing historically unpopular candidates in thier primaries who were historically old. One party switched out.

Personally I would recommend the other party do the same, but just doubling down on bad choices has become its DNA. Vance and Trump don’t shut up and create a new narrative; they just stand over the last hole they dug and ask for a shovel. This would not be hard election to win if Republicans were not so insistent on culture war.

[Josh]

3 hours ago, Skywalkre said:

Trump is back in on the ABC debate.  Their internal polling must be showing a shift as well for him to feel he needs this.

Yup. Kamala has not even had a real interview and she honestly might not until November. She’s in the driver seat; Trump has to come to her.

[Skywalkre]

13 hours ago, Josh said:

Yup. Kamala has not even had a real interview and she honestly might not until November. She’s in the driver seat; Trump has to come to her.

Was watching a discussion this morning trying to make sense of Trump's terrible news conference yesterday.  They highlighted how some in the Trump camp, if not Trump himself, thought it was good to just get his name back in the news cycle regardless of the reason considering all the free, positive press Harris has been getting. 

However, one pundit pointed out when you look back at the only election Trump won, 2016, the big news in the days leading up to the election wasn't any and all coverage of Trump, it was the discussion of Comey's letter in regards to Hillary.

I have some D friends who are still fuming at Comey and argue he handed that win to Trump.  There's also so much more baggage tied to Trump now (6Jan and all) that negative news probably isn't doing what they think it is.

[Mr King]

On 8/6/2024 at 10:12 AM, Skywalkre said:

Ds apparently like him.  There have been lots of posts on reddit in the last week voicing support for him.

 

You know Reddit is very heavily botted and shilled right? I dont doubt d's like him, but everything posted on reddit is suspect. They use reddit to set political and corporate narratives via bot and shill posts by political operatives and have pretty much shut down all discussion that does not support the political narratives they are trying to promote. 

 

 

[Skywalkre]

On 8/9/2024 at 1:39 PM, Mr King said:

You know Reddit is very heavily botted and shilled right? I dont doubt d's like him, but everything posted on reddit is suspect. They use reddit to set political and corporate narratives via bot and shill posts by political operatives and have pretty much shut down all discussion that does not support the political narratives they are trying to promote.

We probably have a higher ratio of shills here on TN than reddit does.  While reddit has issues, what's great about it is that it's so busy you often have folks pointing out the obvious bots and paid promoters quite often.  Where reddit shines is in the comments, which can often deviate completely from the point trying to be made with the post.  It's also quite easy to look up top comments and see a posting history of someone who is quite likely a normal human being.

Using reddit as an example... the difference in comments and posting from Biden to Harris is night/day.  If it was completely manipulated there wouldn't have been that noticeable of a difference.

[Josh]

There seems to be little pushback on Walz, at least among Dems. Actually his initial approval numbers in general seem to be double digits over Vance. That probably is not relevant; VP picks really do not carry a lot of weight in this day and age. But the idea that Walz is unpopular in Democrat circles seems to come solely from conservative media with no quantitative information to support the position.

It will be interesting to see Fox News polling numbers on such matters; historically Fox News polls have been surprisingly accurate.

Edited August 11 by Josh

[Josh]

Anyway, back to the factual or at least semi factual. Polls seem to continue to bend towards Harris. I know no one here believes in polls, especially anything supported from the NYT, but the general trend does seem to be going this way and I do not have a Fox News poll from the swing states handy yet (both Fox and Siena previously did a good job in 2020 though by the way, per the old 538 crew...though organizations can change).

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/10/us/politics/harris-trump-battleground-polls.html

ETA: I will note that lead is margin of error level, but on the other hand it is still a pretty dramatic reversal compared to Biden.

Edited August 11 by Josh