U.S. Federal Elections 2024, Presidential, Senate and U.S. House of Representatives

[rmgill]

Will the DNC’s anti-semitic problem be an issue for Shapiro? 

[Skywalkre]

Giffords, Kelly's wife, is Jewish as well.  Considering Jews in the US have voted overwhelmingly for Ds for several decades... I don't think this will be an issue.

[Josh]

4 hours ago, rmgill said:

Will the DNC’s anti-semitic problem be an issue for Shapiro? 

Was the RNCs anti black problem an issue for Carson?

[Ivanhoe]

What anti-black problem?

[Josh]

1 hour ago, Ivanhoe said:

What anti-black problem?

What anti semitic problem?

[rmgill]

Google ‘campus protest targets Jews’. 
 

They don’t just hate Israel, they hate jews too. 

[Ivanhoe]

Could also google "the squad."

[rmgill]

 

[Josh]

Yes, lots of people think the nation state of Israel is being too heavy handed in Gaza while also continuing to steal land in the West Bank, but that does not strike me as necessarily anti semitic.

[rmgill]

Well then they are ignorant of history. If Israel was as heavy handed as VII Corps was with Aachen, it would have been done by December. 

[Josh]

4 hours ago, rmgill said:

Well then they are ignorant of history. If Israel was as heavy handed as VII Corps was with Aachen, it would have been done by December. 

I generally think Gaza gets what it deserves by holding on to the hostages, but I can easily see someone young who relies on TikTok for news deciding that the IDFs actions are a series of war crimes. The information and the visuals can easily mislead. That does not make a protester antisemitic, just misinformed.

Israeli settlers killing Palestinians in the West Bank and the state of Israel annexing more territory on the other hand I do consider dead wrong.

[R011]

38 minutes ago, Josh said:

I generally think Gaza gets what it deserves by holding on to the hostages, but I can easily see someone young who relies on TikTok for news deciding that the IDFs actions are a series of war crimes. The information and the visuals can easily mislead. That does not make a protester antisemitic, just misinformed.

 

In other words, gullible tools of anti Semites.  Funny how the Left has decided that the one social democratic state in the region, the only one with Western values on women and LGBT+ people, one of the few with a free press and independent judiciary, the only one with a majority Jewish population are the bad guys.

Quote

Israeli settlers killing Palestinians in the West Bank and the state of Israel annexing more territory on the other hand I do consider dead wrong.

Would you be happier if the settlers let Palestinian rioters and terrorists to murder them instead of defending themselves?

[Mighty_Zuk]

5 hours ago, Josh said:

Yes, lots of people think the nation state of Israel is being too heavy handed in Gaza while also continuing to steal land in the West Bank, but that does not strike me as necessarily anti semitic.

If I go out to protest, I typically have a very good reason and firm understanding of what it is I am protesting for or against.

To believe Israel is in any way being heavy handed in Gaza is to grossly misunderstand the situation. It doesn't take deep understanding of defense to see this. It just does not hold up to scrutiny. I cannot think of a scenario where a person truly believes Israel is being heavy handed to the point where protests are necessary, without some form of blind hatred for Israel or Jews.

Because if it comes to going out to protest, I assume that person has already exhausted the option of genuine, objective research.

That, or money.

1 hour ago, Josh said:

Israeli settlers killing Palestinians in the West Bank and the state of Israel annexing more territory on the other hand I do consider dead wrong.

Then how do you propose dealing with it? Because what is probably by far the most effective solution is to fix the manpower issue - which is only something Israel can control. The more manpower Israel can dedicate to the J&S - the more it can reduce areas afflicted with lawlessness and Palestinian-Jewish violence. 

The US can perhaps help with that by sending some of its own forces, or alternatively help Israel finance solutions that would allow a general reduction of needed manpower per given area or task. It could also help by applying necessary financial pressure, but all these require either not pushing Israel, or helping it some way. So dialogue and support, not antagonism - are the way.

22 hours ago, rmgill said:

Will the DNC’s anti-semitic problem be an issue for Shapiro? 

Hardly. I think it's not uncommon for anti-something groups to recruit members of said something they hate, to be their useful idiot and act as a token they can show to claim "See? We have X in our party, so we couldn't possibly hate X."

Edited July 24 by Mighty_Zuk

[Josh]

48 minutes ago, R011 said:

In other words, gullible tools of anti Semites.  Funny how the Left has decided that the one social democratic state in the region, the only one with Western values on women and LGBT+ people, one of the few with a free press and independent judiciary, the only one with a majority Jewish population are the bad guys.

I think you can have a problem with the policies of the government of Israel and protest those without necessarily hating Jews. Presumably the vast protest against the Netanyahu government inside Israel itself are not anti semitic? Or are they self hating Jews?

48 minutes ago, R011 said:

Would you be happier if the settlers let Palestinian rioters and terrorists to murder them instead of defending themselves?

The situation in the West Bank is nothing like Gaza; Israel is failing to protect Pals under it’s jurisdiction from settlers, not the other way around.

[rmgill]

1 hour ago, Josh said:

I generally think Gaza gets what it deserves by holding on to the hostages, but I can easily see someone young who relies on TikTok for news deciding that the IDFs actions are a series of war crimes. The information and the visuals can easily mislead. That does not make a protester antisemitic, just misinformed.

If they decide israel is not allowed to do what the Hamas military forces did and more then it WOULD BE. 

Remember the IDF is racist because they do not rape Palestinian women. 

One could argue that they may not be anti-semitic in spirt, but that they were effectively anti-semitic. 

The position of how the rules of war are working in Gaza with everyone else entirely blind to the prosecution of WWII as a baseline, either brings the conclusion that everyone was wrong about WWII Germany and Japan OR that the folks upset about the war in Gaza BUT ONLY at the Israelis are hip deep in ignorance and antisemitism. 

I mean for chrissakes, look at Operation Carthage. Was that a war crime on the part of the RAF? The Danes don't consider it so. 
 

1 hour ago, Josh said:

Israeli settlers killing Palestinians in the West Bank and the state of Israel annexing more territory on the other hand I do consider dead wrong.

A defacto state of war exists.  I'll note that if the roles were reversed, the occupied state of Israel would not exist. They'd have been thrown in the sea by the Palestinians in 48 and never allowed to continue existing. 

[R011]

17 minutes ago, Josh said:

I think you can have a problem with the policies of the government of Israel and protest those without necessarily hating Jews. Presumably the vast protest against the Netanyahu government inside Israel itself are not anti semitic? Or are they self hating Jews?

 

People who protest Israel without at least equally protesting Hamas and Fatah are anti-Semites. 

Quote

The situation in the West Bank is nothing like Gaza; Israel is failing to protect Pals under it’s jurisdiction from settlers, not the other way around.

The Palestinians at threat from settlers are at threat because settlers are being attacked by Palestinians.

[futon]

1 hour ago, rmgill said:

If they decide israel is not allowed to do what the Hamas military forces did and more then it WOULD BE. 

Remember the IDF is racist because they do not rape Palestinian women. 

One could argue that they may not be anti-semitic in spirt, but that they were effectively anti-semitic. 

The position of how the rules of war are working in Gaza with everyone else entirely blind to the prosecution of WWII as a baseline, either brings the conclusion that everyone was wrong about WWII Germany and Japan OR that the folks upset about the war in Gaza BUT ONLY at the Israelis are hip deep in ignorance and antisemitism. 

I mean for chrissakes, look at Operation Carthage. Was that a war crime on the part of the RAF? The Danes don't consider it so. 
 

"Everyone" has been wrong about Japan. There are the atrocities that "everyone" was made to know carried out by the Japanese. But those that determine what "everyone" knows willfully turn a blind eye to that the Second Sino-Japanese war was prolonged by outside support. A big reason for the Second Sino-Japanese approach near end terms was because the Japanese were able to get "collaborators" which the term does not show how big of a factor it was for Wang Jingwei to switch sides but still on a Nationalists Chinese platform with shared anti-communism with Japan. If the whole story was only of Japanese atrocities, then the Wang regime couldn't have been formed. If the Soviet, US, and GB aid had not started in 1938 to 1940, the war likely would have ended by 1940 with Nationalist Chinese still in the seat led by Wang Jingwei. No one is able to argue that Wang was worse than CKS or Mao. It's up in the air that he may have been the most suitable for a leader. The baseline for war prosecution in WW2 or.. if avoiding broadsweeping geographical and timeline in the Second Sino-Japanese follows the Chinese Civil War in 1920s and 1930s baseline. So there's that relativity marker. What Imperial Japan had with Wang Jingwei's regime appears non-existant for Israel with Palistine. Israel doesn't have sufficient high tier "collaborators".. people from the otherside that want to reach over, end the war, and move on together. Instead the complete destruction of Imperial Japan brought upon a huge communism wave in Asia and a death rate of dead to total population on the korean peninsula higher than the death rate anywaywhere else in WW2. 

[Tim the Tank Nut]

the Jews do tend to vote for the party that would happily send them "up the chimney" if they had the chance.

It's their choice.  I only insist that they bear the consequences of their choice.  

The "welcome" that team D gives Israelis is something to behold.  We like to think the USA is better than wartime Germany but the gap is narrower than ever.

As always the Left can defend any point no matter how morally reprehensible it can be.

[rmgill]

My Jewish neighbor had a BLM sign outside her house for several years now. It's suddenly gone with BLM siding with Hamas. 

[Josh]

The Florida constitutional abortion amendment seems like it might pass, despite the 60% threshold:

 

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/4801375-florida-abortion-ballot-initiative/amp/

[rmgill]

How did Obama put it? Different rules for different states. Entirely reasonable. 

Why is it that Dems want all their rights but offer no reciprocity for the other rights? 

Get back to me when The Dem states aren’t violating the 2nd amendment and other rights as a matter of routine. 

[Skywalkre]

19 hours ago, Josh said:

The Florida constitutional abortion amendment seems like it might pass, despite the 60% threshold:

 

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/4801375-florida-abortion-ballot-initiative/amp/

There was already talk, even with Biden still in the race, that FL might be in play given the expected turnout when abortion is on the ballot.  Apparently some polling was showing Biden just 3 points behind.  It'll be interesting to see if that holds. 

Was watching a Zeihan vid from the other day (before Biden dropped out) about how there's zero reason to follow polls til after both conventions.  According to him true Independents don't start paying attention til then and avoid polling up til that point.  Then it takes several weeks to get good data in (and now with 538 being worthless there's no outstanding site to get a reading on all the polls). 

So, tl;dr, come mid-Sep who knows what we might be seeing.

[Josh]

1 hour ago, Skywalkre said:

There was already talk, even with Biden still in the race, that FL might be in play given the expected turnout when abortion is on the ballot.  Apparently some polling was showing Biden just 3 points behind.  It'll be interesting to see if that holds.

I think that is bullshit; Trump only took the state by like 3.4% in 2020 but since then there has been a large influx of Republicans. There are 900,000 more GOP registered voters than Dem. Even this poll indicated the Dems still lose everything else; there clearly must be a huge number of Republicans voting for the amendment if the poll is remotely accurate. But the crushingly large number was notable. I definitely want to see more polls though; it seems hard to believe that such a large proportion of people are anti 6 week ban while being pro Trump and pro Scott. One thing about FL, it pre counts its mail in so it will be very apparent what went down by Weds morning.

 

1 hour ago, Skywalkre said:

Was watching a Zeihan vid from the other day (before Biden dropped out) about how there's zero reason to follow polls til after both conventions.  According to him true Independents don't start paying attention til then and avoid polling up til that point.  Then it takes several weeks to get good data in (and now with 538 being worthless there's no outstanding site to get a reading on all the polls). 

So, tl;dr, come mid-Sep who knows what we might be seeing.

Yeah, we are definitely mostly flying blind. The outlets repeating the same polling can give you an idea of when and where momentum has shifted but it doesn’t really tell us much about the final results even in a good year, and this is likely the most confusing, chaotic year to poll in the modern history of U.S. elections.

Edited July 31 by Josh

[Skywalkre]

1 hour ago, Josh said:

I think that is bullshit; Trump only took the state by like 3.4% in 2020 but since then there has been a large influx of Republicans. There are 900,000 more GOP registered voters than Dem. Even this poll indicated the Dems still lose everything else; there clearly must be a huge number of Republicans voting for in for the amendment if the poll is remotely accurate. But the crushingly large number was notable. I definitely want to see more polls though; it seems hard to believe that such a large proportion of people are anti 6 week ban while being pro Trump and pro Scott. One thing about FL, it pre counts its mail in so it will be very apparent what went down by Weds morning.

Somewhere out there there has to be an analysis of abortion initiatives and their impact in shifting the vote.  Abortion measures have been winning consistently even in conservative states, but IIRC most of those measures have been special elections.  How many were on the general ballot?  If any, was there any noticeable impact in shifting the vote towards D.  Did special election wins shift the vote on a later general election?  If 538 was what it once was I bet you we'd already have multiple articles examining this.

[Josh]

20 minutes ago, Skywalkre said:

Somewhere out there there has to be an analysis of abortion initiatives and their impact in shifting the vote.  Abortion measures have been winning consistently even in conservative states, but IIRC most of those measures have been special elections.  How many were on the general ballot?  If any, was there any noticeable impact in shifting the vote towards D.  Did special election wins shift the vote on a later general election?  If 538 was what it once was I bet you we'd already have multiple articles examining this.

Most of the abortion referendums were done in a relative vacuum; in fact a lot of people were bemoaning the fact Ohio would have its referendum settled before 2024. There were some special elections side by side and Dems seemed to do well, but I think this was explained by voter turnout - Dems have been turning up more in off year elections for a few cycles, ironically a reversal of trends pre Trump when Republicans tended to have off year advantages. Because this is a presidential election, turnout on both sides will be very high again.

 

But I think for states like Montana and Ohio to have overwhelming abortion support, there has to either be Republican voters crossing lines or else every Republican leaning independent is drawing a line in the sand on that issue, even if they otherwise like the GOP platform. Either way, someone is cross voting - it’s not like MN or OH is turning blue this cycle. This first FL poll seems to paint precisely that picture. I suspect if DeSantis had kep it at 16 weeks he would be on much firmer ground.

It does tell me that linking Trump to Project 2025, specifically the abortion issue recommendations in it, might gain some ground in swing states. A reinterpretation of the Comstock Act might effectively remove abortion as an option for most of the population without any pesky legislation whatsoever. Screaming that from the hilltops and noting a dozen different former Trump cabinet members were/are part of project 2025 would be priority #1 if I were Harris.

Edited July 31 by Josh