U.S. Federal Elections 2024, Presidential, Senate and U.S. House of Representatives

[17thfabn]

9 minutes ago, Skywalkre said:

After the assassination attempt on Trump all this talk of Biden stepping aside seems to have subsided... but is it permanent or are folks just waiting for some time to pass before bringing it up again?

If the Democrats are going to replace President Biden they are quickly running out of time. I would think if Biden is going to be forced out it would have to be before their convention. 

Perhaps their best timing would be to replace Biden shortly after the Republican convention ends. 

The Republican convention ends July 18th, the Democrat one starts August 19th. I believe if Biden is to be forced out it will be during this period. 

[Skywalkre]

They have up through the convention to do it with no issue.  So... lots of time.  The issue is all this back-and-forth and debate about it seems to be disheartening their own voters.

I saw a few articles that came out this weekend, that with the assassination need to be taken with giant asterisks now, but they were doing some serious analyzing of polls to see how bad the debate fallout was.  The consensus seemed to be a) either nothing changed with the polls or b) Biden fell behind slightly... but that wasn't from Trump picking up anyone but D voters saying they were more likely to just sit home.  All this talk about some wanting Biden to step aside hasn't been doing anything to assuage those D voters who are now on the fence about whether it's even worth voting.

It appears both candidates have ceilings that they've effectively reached.  Now the question is getting the voters on the fence to show up this Nov.  As dark as it is to say the assassination attempt on Trump probably helped him get out some of those R/R-leaning voters who were hesitant to support him (and we need to remind ourselves that estimates put it at only 40% of Rs being diehard supporters of him... you have another 40% that are supporting him only because he's R and about 20% through the primaries who kept voting for Haley as a protest vote).

Edited July 16 by Skywalkre

[rmgill]

Loyalty to party above all else en Skywalkre? 

[Skywalkre]

1 hour ago, rmgill said:

Loyalty to party above all else en Skywalkre? 

No idea what you're referencing (which is often the case), but, yeah... most voters are effectively loyal to one party.  True swing voters are rare and often elections are about turnout instead of convincing folks to change sides.  With that being said, we saw some decidedly unusual swing voting back in '22 against Rs and Trump... but so far it doesn't seem like that is manifesting again.

[rmgill]

4 hours ago, Skywalkre said:

No idea what you're referencing (which is often the case),

To the DNC party. The DNC is QUITE good at making ALLof their members vote in lock step or conform.

And, you're just glossing over of the process they'll use to chose their Biden Replacement. What's that process? With the Super Delegates? It very much looks like an oligarchy. The primaries don't matter at all. The candidate is who the party chooses. 
 

 

Edited July 16 by rmgill

[JWB]

538 uses polling, economic and demographic data to explore likely election outcomes.
Biden wins 53 times out of 100
in our simulations of the 2024 presidential election.
Trump wins 47 times out of 100.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/?cid=rrpromo

[17thfabn]

5 hours ago, rmgill said:

And, you're just glossing over of the process they'll use to chose their Biden Replacement. What's that process? With the Super Delegates? It very much looks like an oligarchy. The primaries don't matter at all. The candidate is who the party chooses. 

In the Democratic party super delegates are about 15% of the delegate votes. (Varies by year) They don't vote in the first round of voting. 

Secretary Clinton would have gotten the nomination with out the help of super delegates.

[DKTanker]

2 hours ago, JWB said:

538 uses polling, economic and demographic data to explore likely election outcomes.
Biden wins 53 times out of 100
in our simulations of the 2024 presidential election.
Trump wins 47 times out of 100.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/?cid=rrpromo

On the morning of November 8, 2016 538 gave Hillary a 71% chance of winning.  538 did correctly predict Biden's win in 2020 however not at the slim margin that it was.  They correctly predicted that the D's would retake the Senate but they got many of the senate races wrong.  538 completely booted the House results predicting a net gain by Ds, not the actual net loss of 10.  
Too early to tell and 538 is little better than a dart board.

[Skywalkre]

8 hours ago, rmgill said:

To the DNC party. The DNC is QUITE good at making ALLof their members vote in lock step or conform.

Actually, they're really not (as far as turning out... and neither are the Rs).  Keep in mind '20 was the biggest turnout in my lifetime and only 2/3 of voters showed up.  As for how they vote, Ds are no different than the Rs in that they often vote along party lines.  Again, not really sure what you're trying to say...

8 hours ago, rmgill said:

And, you're just glossing over of the process they'll use to chose their Biden Replacement. What's that process? With the Super Delegates? It very much looks like an oligarchy. The primaries don't matter at all. The candidate is who the party chooses.

If Biden steps down the delegates, the super as well as normal ones, would have to be won over by various replacements and then they would choose the replacement before the convention ends.  This has happened before... it's just been a long time.

As I've mentioned before those delegates are apparently approved by the Biden camp before showing up which is one of many reasons why if this happened Harris was basically presumed to take over.

[Skywalkre]

4 hours ago, JWB said:

538 uses polling, economic and demographic data to explore likely election outcomes.
Biden wins 53 times out of 100
in our simulations of the 2024 presidential election.
Trump wins 47 times out of 100.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/?cid=rrpromo

The guy behind 538, Nate Silver, left about two years ago.  A year later Disney fired something like 80-90% of the staff still working at the site.  From everything I've read about this this was a cost-cutting move by some dipshit exec who thought they could automate everything and maintain the same result.  It's a comical notion.  There's a reason I've made several comments over the last year how 538 is effectively dead and should be ignored (and to highlight this Silver put out his own early estimates a few weeks ago, and they were quite different from 538's, with him giving Trump a 2/3 chance of winning this Nov).

[17thfabn]

9 hours ago, Skywalkre said:

1.) If Biden steps down the delegates, the super as well as normal ones, would have to be won over by various replacements and then they would choose the replacement before the convention ends.  This has happened before... it's just been a long time.

2.) As I've mentioned before those delegates are apparently approved by the Biden camp before showing up which is one of many reasons why if this happened Harris was basically presumed to take over.

(Numbers added by 17thfabn)

1.) When was a nominee replaced after they had won enough delegates to win the nomination?

2.) Why would you assume that Biden's delegates would have a warm and fuzzy feeling for  Harris and support her as the heir apparent to Biden?

[rmgill]

So the delegates are supposed to vote based on the primary election right? At the convention the contention is they will seat some other candidate? One who was not in the primary at all.

 

If they vote differently, faithlessly, how is that not the similar  as what Trump is under indictment for soliciting in Georgia? 
 

‘Their’ democracy? 

Edited July 17 by rmgill

[17thfabn]

40 minutes ago, rmgill said:

So the delegates are supposed to vote based on the primary election right? At the convention the contention is they will seat some other candidate? One who was not in the primary at all.

If they vote differently, faithlessly, how is that not the similar  as what Trump is under indictment for soliciting in Georgia? 

Do you have information that they are going to vote different than what they were elected to do?

The party's rules are not governed by law. The political parties are private organizations that have their own rules.

[Skywalkre]

1 hour ago, 17thfabn said:

1.) When was a nominee replaced after they had won enough delegates to win the nomination?

2.) Why would you assume that Biden's delegates would have a warm and fuzzy feeling for  Harris and support her as the heir apparent to Biden?

1) I don't know if this specific situation has occurred, but there has certainly been situations where the nominee had to be decided at the convention.  I have a friend who has a PhD in US Political History and he's been having a blast talking about the history of all of this.  Something I remember hearing was some of these rules go back centuries... it's just we haven't seen many of them in decades.

2) This might be hard for folks on TN to come to grips with... but Ds like Harris.  On top of that there's also the fact she'd be the first woman of color running.  One of the faults of Ds that everyone here on TN would agree with is how they put so much importance on symbology like that.  On top of that... she'd likely have no challenger.  So far there don't appear to be any serious contenders who would be willing to step up if Biden steps down.

[Skywalkre]

18 minutes ago, 17thfabn said:

The party's rules are not governed by law. The political parties are private organizations that have their own rules.

You nailed it.  All they're really expected to do is have a nominee by the end of the convention (and even then, apparently there are rules for replacing said nominee afterwards).  But ultimately all of this is an internal affair of private organizations (unlike the final Federal election this Nov... which has laws... and this little ol' thing called the Constitution backing up how it's run).

[glenn239]

7 hours ago, Skywalkre said:

1) I don't know if this specific situation has occurred, but there has certainly been situations where the nominee had to be decided at the convention. 

That's irrelevant.  When was a candidate that had won the nomination and confirmed they are running in the election supplanted at the convention because individuals in the party decided amongst themselves that his chances of winning weren't good enough for them? 

Edited July 17 by glenn239

[glenn239]

7 hours ago, Skywalkre said:

You nailed it.  All they're really expected to do is have a nominee by the end of the convention (and even then, apparently there are rules for replacing said nominee afterwards).  But ultimately all of this is an internal affair of private organizations (unlike the final Federal election this Nov... which has laws... and this little ol' thing called the Constitution backing up how it's run).

My advice to Biden would be that if he is kicked off the ticket at the convention, he should run in the election anyways as an independent. 

[Murph]

This says a lot.  A combat Marine vs Montel William's side piece (and Willie Browns mistress):

 

[Tim Sielbeck]

8 hours ago, 17thfabn said:

The political parties are private organizations that have their own rules.

Then why are tax payers burdened with paying for their primaries?

[rmgill]

8 hours ago, 17thfabn said:

Do you have information that they are going to vote different than what they were elected to do?

Its been in the news that its in discussions. 

8 hours ago, 17thfabn said:

The party's rules are not governed by law. The political parties are private organizations that have their own rules.

And the state rules and laws are relevant to those. So to the rules for procedure. Noone was charged with a crime with how legislative rules were fudged for the PPACA. 

[Skywalkre]

9 hours ago, glenn239 said:

That's irrelevant.  When was a candidate that had won the nomination and confirmed they are running in the election supplanted at the convention because individuals in the party decided amongst themselves that his chances of winning weren't good enough for them? 

Per an article i was reading last night the party has the ability to remove a candidate even after being nominated (these rules exist apparently in part in case a major scandal breaks).

With that being said I don't see why the scenario you're pushing would happen.  First, I'm not seeing it being discussed as something that's seriously being considered.  Second, as mentioned, the Biden camp has vetted almost all the delegates.  Conventions are ultimately small affairs of party diehards... I don't find it surprising the Biden camp can basically ensure most of the folks there actually like Biden (those people do exist).

Edited July 17 by Skywalkre

[17thfabn]

21 hours ago, Skywalkre said:

1) I don't know if this specific situation has occurred, but there has certainly been situations where the nominee had to be decided at the convention.  I have a friend who has a PhD in US Political History and he's been having a blast talking about the history of all of this.  Something I remember hearing was some of these rules go back centuries... it's just we haven't seen many of them in decades.

In not so long ago times the primaries didn't matter so much. The party bosses had much more sway. Talking about in the 1950s and earlier.

[17thfabn]

12 hours ago, Tim Sielbeck said:

Then why are tax payers burdened with paying for their primaries?

Ask the politicians.

[rmgill]

2 hours ago, 17thfabn said:

In not so long ago times the primaries didn't matter so much. The party bosses had much more sway. Talking about in the 1950s and earlier.

Or 1968...

[Skywalkre]

VP talk for Harris seems to indicate the finalists are Sen Kelly from AZ and PA gov Shapiro.  Kelly is just... a solid candidate all around but PA means a lot more with the 19 electoral votes at stake. 

Harris seemed to shore up support from the D party relatively quickly.  I had seen some stories in the last week that her people were already at work in case Biden stepped down and the last 36h seems to have shown that was accurate.  In basically a single day she had a majority of all major D pols supporting her (including several potential 'rivals' if the convention was contested).  Reports last night were saying she's already shored up enough delegates for it to be official.