U.S. Federal Elections 2024, Presidential, Senate and U.S. House of Representatives

[17thfabn]

With former Governor Nikki Haley pulling out of the Republican Race the Democratic and Republican nominees for president are set barring a stroke, heart attack, fall with serious head injury or lightning strike by an angry God to one or both candidates.

2024 will be another race between two subpar choices but one of them will be inaugurated as  president on January 20th 2025 ........ barring a stroke, heart attack, fall with serious head injury or lightning strike by an angry God.

The choices for U.S. President in 2024:

The current U.S. President Joe Biden. Many question his competence to be president. He is 81 years old.

He was a fairly moderate Democrat for most of his time as a U.S. Senate. As Vice President his views would be little known as is tradition for a vice president.

As president he has turned hard left. Many believe he is just a figure head and behind the scenes administration officials are really running the country. 

He has made an absolute mess of the border and inflation and our energy policy.

Funny how after three plus years Biden, now with the election looming,  sees there is a problem with illegal immigration. 

The former U.S. President Donald Trump. Where to begin? 

He definitely inspires passion, both for and against him. He is the definition of polarizing.

He brags about not being a politician. I have news for him. You entered the game, you ARE a POLITICIAN. And you are not good at it. You cannot win with just the MAGA people. I wouldn't call them MAGA Republicans because many of them are with the Republicans only because of Trump. If Trump hopes to win the presidency again he needs to get non MAGA Republicans, be they moderates or old line conservatives. And Independents.

The two best presidents as far as the political game in the last 40 years were Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton. They knew how to glad hand, kiss the babies and shake hands. Neither of them would go out of there way to piss people off. He could learn a lot form them. But I doubt he will take the lessons. 

I did not like his constant nasty tweeting. 

He is a crude, rude, low class individual . 

By and large I liked Trump's policies,  based on that I will hold my nose and vote for him. His policies are more in line with my beliefs than Biden's.

Some silly things some say about Trump:

If he is reelected he will be a dictator and will not leave office at the end of his term. If that is so why wasn't he a dictator in his first term and refuse to leave office in 2021?

He is an insurrectionist. If January 6th 2021 was in insurrection, it was the most inept insurrection in history. You can find plenty of quotes by other politicians on the left saying the same things Trump said on January 6th. You can interpret them favorably or unfavorably based on your political leanings. As far as I know there is no smoking gun where Trump said go riot at the capitol.

I don't like Trump as a human being. But I also think he has been treated unfairly. It really does seem like some leftist Democrats have taken the old Soviet adage of "show me the man and I'll find the crime" to heart. Some polls say if he is convicted of a felony it could change some voters minds and decide the election against Trump. 

Trump's best chance to win is to get a first rate political operator who can keep him on message. I see little chance of that. His second best chance is for Biden to continue his slow implosion.  

I think we can pretty much ignore the other candidates other than to speculate who they take the most votes from.

It will be a close election. Probably six or seven swing states will decide the election. 

It looks likely the Republicans will regain the U.S. Senate.

The U.S. House of Representatives will be a close fight. It could go either way. 

Edited March 12, 2024 by 17thfabn

[17thfabn]

I do wish Trump would quite messing with local elections.

In Ohio he had promised to not endorse a candidate for U.S. Senate and support any of the three candidates who got the Republican nomination. And then a did an about face and endorsed one of the candidates. The one I feel is the worst choice.

[17thfabn]

This average  of several  polls has the Republicans in a slight lead to control the House of Representatives. The too close to call districts will decide who controls the U.S. House of Representatives.

If you live in or near one of the 21 toss up districts expect to have wall to wall political ads coming to a TV and radio near you!

https://www.270towin.com/2024-house-election/consensus-2024-house-forecast

[17thfabn]

The average of polls for control of the U.S. Senate:

Counting the races that lean Democrat or Republican they have 47 Democrat and 50 Republican with 3 toss up states.

So if the Republicans can win one of the toss up states or win the presidency they will control the U.S. Senate.

https://www.270towin.com/2024-senate-election/

[Josh]

19 hours ago, 17thfabn said:

The average of polls for control of the U.S. Senate:

Counting the races that lean Democrat or Republican they have 47 Democrat and 50 Republican with 3 toss up states.

So if the Republicans can win one of the toss up states or win the presidency they will control the U.S. Senate.

https://www.270towin.com/2024-senate-election/

The democrats are all but certain to lose the senate. It is just a bad map for them this year, much like last year was not a good one for the Republicans. The West Virginia seat will go Republican, and Ohio, Montana, and Arizona are all Trump states with Democrat Senators (well AZ sorta, but the seat will be open in any case). The House on the other hand I think the Republicans will struggle to defend - there are 17 representatives in districts that went for Biden, and in a presidential year those are going to be hard to defend. A lot of them are in CA and NY (well Santos already lost his, but it will be up for grabs again). Plus the GOP led House has been one of the most dysfunctional in history; its not like any of them can stand on their record.

Edited March 13, 2024 by Josh

[Ivanhoe]

So Rep Ken Buck of Colorado decided to bail RFN.

His claimed rationale pretty obviously falls flat. If the current goings-on displease him, which specific goings-on are the problem? He opposed the impeachment of Mayorka, which makes me suspect that Buck is a closet pedo. With what's going on with illegal immigration, failing to hold Mayorkas to account is tacitly approving human trafficking.

Maybe he reached his target retirement nest egg goal and punched out. Or maybe he received a dark money incentive to sabotage orderly campaigns and elections in Colorado. Speaking of which, maybe he's butt-hurt that SCOTUS overruled SCOC? He does seem like a never-Trumper.

 

 

[17thfabn]

7 hours ago, Josh said:

The democrats are all but certain to lose the senate. It is just a bad map for them this year, much like last year was not a good one for the Republicans. The West Virginia seat will go Republican, and Ohio, Montana, and Arizona are all Trump states with Democrat Senators (well AZ sorta, but the seat will be open in any case).

Democrat Senator Sherrod Brown Ohio, my home state, will be hard to beat. He is a three term Senator. In spite of being very liberal in a moderately conservative state he doesn't seem to raise a lot of attention.  After next Tuesday's Ohio primary and the Republican nominee is chosen they'll be a ton of money from the Democrats, Republicans and pacts hitting Ohio and launching massive TV and radio ad campaigns.

[Josh]

The guy in Montana I think is in his second term as well, and Lake is a suicidal choice for the AZ GOP. But Dems will have to play a perfect game to hold the senate - all three races and the presidency. It isn’t impossible but I think the odds are 1/4 or lower.

[Josh]

4 hours ago, Ivanhoe said:

So Rep Ken Buck of Colorado decided to bail RFN.

His claimed rationale pretty obviously falls flat. If the current goings-on displease him, which specific goings-on are the problem? He opposed the impeachment of Mayorka, which makes me suspect that Buck is a closet pedo. With what's going on with illegal immigration, failing to hold Mayorkas to account is tacitly approving human trafficking.

Maybe he reached his target retirement nest egg goal and punched out. Or maybe he received a dark money incentive to sabotage orderly campaigns and elections in Colorado. Speaking of which, maybe he's butt-hurt that SCOTUS overruled SCOC? He does seem like a never-Trumper.

 

 

I do not understand how we got pedophilia? That seems to MAGAs new go to “as bad as Hitler” statement; everyone they disagree with is a pedophile…

[Ivanhoe]

Opening the border up to massive illegal immigration = human trafficking

human trafficking of Latin Americans, esp children => supply for the pedo marketplace

Who else needs tens of thousands of unaccompanied children?

 

[Josh]

8 hours ago, Ivanhoe said:

Opening the border up to massive illegal immigration = human trafficking

human trafficking of Latin Americans, esp children => supply for the pedo marketplace

Who else needs tens of thousands of unaccompanied children?

 

Was not separating migrant children from their parents a Trump policy?

[Ssnake]

Started under Obama, actually.

[Josh]

On 3/13/2024 at 6:38 PM, Ivanhoe said:

So Rep Ken Buck of Colorado decided to bail RFN.

His claimed rationale pretty obviously falls flat. If the current goings-on displease him, which specific goings-on are the problem? He opposed the impeachment of Mayorka, which makes me suspect that Buck is a closet pedo. With what's going on with illegal immigration, failing to hold Mayorkas to account is tacitly approving human trafficking.

Maybe he reached his target retirement nest egg goal and punched out. Or maybe he received a dark money incentive to sabotage orderly campaigns and elections in Colorado. Speaking of which, maybe he's butt-hurt that SCOTUS overruled SCOC? He does seem like a never-Trumper.

 

 

I read an article this morning that makes Buck’s actions more understandable. By leaving early, he forces a special election, which is a personal fuck you to Boebert, who is attempting to run for his seat. She has to resign her current seat to run in a special election. So while no kids were likely involved in the decision, a hand job was.

[17thfabn]

1 hour ago, Josh said:

I read an article this morning that makes Buck’s actions more understandable. By leaving early, he forces a special election, which is a personal fuck you to Boebert, who is attempting to run for his seat. She has to resign her current seat to run in a special election. So while no kids were likely involved in the decision, a hand job was.

With the razor thin Republican majority in the House of Representatives they can barley ... just barley afford this departure. 

It looks like Representative Boebert is not running in the special election.

[Ivanhoe]

On 3/14/2024 at 7:20 AM, Ssnake said:

Started under Obama, actually.

Obama's INS began the program of DNA spot-testing children accompanied by adults, due to the large number of children who were kidnapped back home. As should have been expected, a substantial percentage of children were not blood relatives of the putative parents. Thus the process of separating children from their non-parents at the border, which wasn't a problem until Trump was elected. Then the "children in cages" (built by Obama) became a big thing in the news only after Obama was out of the WH.

The coyotes/cartels pay the illegals to bring the kids across, then dump them with people having only the noblest of intentions.

I live not too far from an Interstate which is a major human trafficking corridor. Those children aren't being trafficked because of a shortage of Little League shortstops. Some end up working in factories (in particular, meat packing plants), the rest have a much worse trajectory.

 

[Ivanhoe]

 

[17thfabn]

How would third party candidates effect the 2024 presidential election? The Democrats seem concerned that RFK Jr's run will pull votes from President Biden. Polls indicate a RFK Jr. run helps Former President Trump.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/how-democrats-are-already-quashing-a-nightmare-2024-robert-f-kennedy-jr-scenario

 

[Josh]

The margin in US swing states is so thin that a third candidate could easily change the election. There are nearly half a dozen states who's electoral college votes are decided by <100,000 voters. That said, I am not convinced RFK takes more votes from Biden than from Trump - he is an unrepentant anti vaxer, which is predominantly a right wing phenomenon post COVID. It would not take a lot of Biden money to dissuade most democrat leaning independent voters from voting for him. In my opinion, his current popularity seems tied to his historical last name and the fact no one has hammered him on the air waves yet.

Note that the chances of RFK having a significant effect on the popular vote or actually himself winning Electoral College votes are slim to none - he would only serve as a spoiler for one side or the other in swing states. Historically third party candidates always do very well this early in the voting cycle, while come election time they have 1-2% margins. While this election does have two historically unpopular candidates, I still think RFK's ceiling is 2-3% nationally. That still might be enough to throw the race off due to the EC.

Edited March 18, 2024 by Josh

[17thfabn]

I think MOST people who vote third party fall into one of the following categories.

They live in either a deeply Democratic or Republican state and are of the minority party. They know their vote doesn't count and they don't like their parties nominee so they feel free to throw their vote away on a third party candidate.

They can't stomach voting for their parties nominee but also can't stand the other parties nominee. Instead of not voting at all they vote third party. 

In the above scenarios their vote for third party doesn't really matter.

And there are the true believers that feel JFK Jr. would be the greatest president in their lifetime. 

 

[Josh]

6 hours ago, 17thfabn said:

I think MOST people who vote third party fall into one of the following categories.

They live in either a deeply Democratic or Republican state and are of the minority party. They know their vote doesn't count and they don't like their parties nominee so they feel free to throw their vote away on a third party candidate.

They can't stomach voting for their parties nominee but also can't stand the other parties nominee. Instead of not voting at all they vote third party. 

In the above scenarios their vote for third party doesn't really matter.

And there are the true believers that feel JFK Jr. would be the greatest president in their lifetime. 

 

And this is why even relatively successful 3rd party candidates fail to achieve anything more than being spoilers. It just does not work in the current US political environment, unless you are actively voting against one of the other parties to begin with, for whatever reason. No one votes for them because they think they will win or they even agree with them. It would be an interesting dynamic to watch JFK (EDIT: typo, RFK) vs either Trump or Biden by himself: odds are, he still would not break double digits nationally IMO.

Edited March 19, 2024 by Josh

[R011]

JFK has one slight disadvantage over both Trump and Biden or he'd be a sure in.  He died in 1963.  His son JFK Jr died in a plane crash in 1999.  The Kennedy who is currently running is Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the late president's nephew.

[Josh]

1 hour ago, R011 said:

JFK has one slight disadvantage over both Trump and Biden or he'd be a sure in.  He died in 1963.  His son JFK Jr died in a plane crash in 1999.  The Kennedy who is currently running is Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the late president's nephew.

Fair enough. He's coasting on his father's name, not his uncle. My other posts used the correct initials, but that slip just shows you how much grab the name still has and also how horribly it will go when you actually see him barefoot on a plane or mutha fucking a measles vaccine.

Edited March 19, 2024 by Josh

[17thfabn]

10 hours ago, Josh said:

That said, I am not convinced RFK takes more votes from Biden than from Trump - he is an unrepentant anti vaxer, which is predominantly a right wing phenomenon post COVID. It would not take a lot of Biden money to dissuade most democrat leaning independent voters from voting for him. In my opinion, his current popularity seems tied to his historical last name and the fact no one has hammered him on the air waves yet.

Most of the hard core anti vaxers are MAGA Trumpers. Interesting because last I remember Trump is touting how super, stupendous , great, fantastic the vaccine was. I don't think you could pry them away from the Trumpster, to vote for RFK Jr. 

[17thfabn]

1 hour ago, Josh said:

Fair enough. He's coasting on his father's name, not his uncle. My other posts used the correct initials, but that slip just shows you how much grab the name still has and also how horribly it will go when you actually see him barefoot on a plane or mutha fucking a measles vaccine.

I slipped up in one of my posts also.

 RFK Jr. is playing as much on his uncle's name as his father's.  Probably half the people have forgotten who RFK Sr. was,  and only know that RFK Jr. is related to the Kennedy's somehow. 

[Josh]

51 minutes ago, 17thfabn said:

Most of the hard core anti vaxers are MAGA Trumpers. Interesting because last I remember Trump is touting how super, stupendous , great, fantastic the vaccine was. I don't think you could pry them away from the Trumpster, to vote for RFK Jr. 

Then you apparently missed the Trump rally where his own participants actively booed him. That was the last time he mentioned "his" vaccine at one of his rallies, to the best of my knowledge. 

 

 

Edited March 19, 2024 by Josh