W.W.2 No Germans to North Africa...

[RETAC21]

2 minutes ago, Perun said:

Still I doubt that they could invade Sicily alone

They certainly could, particularly if the US sits out the war but still has LL in place.

See for example, LCTs and note the emphasis on shipping them to the Med:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Landing_craft_tank

The British empire manpower crisis of 1944 was more a question of manpower usage than a shortage of hands. If Japan sits out the war, 2 important drains on Empire manpower disappear in the SW Pacific and Burma.

Even if Japan is engaged only by the US, substantial forces are freed for other theaters, but the main difference is that they aren't lost and/or wasted in the Middle East during 1941/42, while Italian losses in Lybia would be irrecoverable.

[Markus Becker]

2 minutes ago, Perun said:

Still I doubt that they could invade Sicily alone

They'd be fighting against the Italians, the elite Italians but the Italians only. (On the ground)

Because if Benny is too embarrassed to ask for Adolf's aid in 41, why would he scream for aid in 42? He had time to get everything in place and in any case the Austrian private has a mess of his own to deal with. USSR with extra LL. 

[Perun]

Whitout Germans in Italy and Sicily it is another story

[Stuart Galbraith]

8 minutes ago, Perun said:

Whitout Germans in Italy and Sicily it is another story

No, let's leave the Germans there.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Husky_order_of_battle

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allied_invasion_of_Sicily

 

The U.S. Seventh Army consisted initially of three infantry divisions, organized under II Corps, commanded by Lieutenant General Omar Bradley. The 1st and 3rd Infantry Divisions, commanded by Major Generals Terry Allen and Lucian Truscott respectively, sailed from ports in Tunisia, while the 45th Infantry Division, under Major General Troy H. Middleton, sailed from the United States via Oran in Algeria. The 2nd Armored Division, under Major General Hugh Joseph Gaffey, also sailing from Oran, was to be a floating reserve and be fed into combat as required. On 15 July, Patton reorganized his command into two corps by creating a new Provisional Corps headquarters, commanded by his deputy army commander, Major General Geoffrey Keyes.^[20]

The British Eighth Army had four infantry divisions and an independent infantry brigade organized under XIII Corps, commanded by Lieutenant-General Sir Miles Dempsey, and XXX Corps, commanded by Lieutenant-General Sir Oliver Leese. The two divisions of XIII Corps, the 5th and 50th (Northumbrian) Infantry Divisions, commanded by Major-Generals Horatio Berney-Ficklin and Sidney Kirkman, sailed from Suez in Egypt. The formations of XXX Corps sailed from more diverse ports: the1st Canadian Infantry Division, under Major-General Guy Simonds, sailed from the United Kingdom, the 51st (Highland) Infantry Division, under Major-General Douglas Wimberley, from Tunisia and Malta, and the 231st Independent Infantry Brigade Group from Suez.

 

Let's look at the British 1st Army in May 1943, which was not used in the operation.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_First_Army_order_of_battle,_4_May_1943

 

This is an outline order of battle of the British First Army on 4 May 1943 during the Tunisian Campaign of World War II.

• British First Army
  Commanded by: Lieutenant-General Sir Kenneth Anderson
  • V Corps
    Commanded by Lieutenant-General Charles Allfrey
    • North Irish Horse
    • 7th Algerian Tirailleurs Regiment (7ème Régiment de Tirailleurs Algériens)
    • 1st Army Group Royal Artillery
    • 46th Infantry Division (less 139th Brigade Group)
    • 78th Infantry Division
  • IX Corps
    Commanded by: Lieutenant-General Brian Horrocks
    • 25th Tank Brigade (less two battalions)
    • 201st Guards Brigade
    • 2nd Army Group Royal Artillery
    • 4th Infantry Division
    • 4th Indian Infantry Division
    • 6th Armoured Division
    • 7th Armoured Division
  • XIX French Corps
    Commanded by General Louis Koeltz
    • One Tank Battalion
    • Division d'Alger [fr]
    • Division du Maroc
    • Division d'Oran [fr]

 

• •  
• Army Reserve
  • 1st King's Dragoon Guards
  • 51st (Leeds Rifles) Royal Tank Regiment
  • 139th Infantry Brigade
  • 1st Armoured Division

Then there is the British home fleet that could replace the American 8th fleet. Risks the Tirpitz coming out, but what the hell, its not for long.

I'm seeing nothing here that couldn't have been done by Britain, Commonwealth and free French forces.

 

[seahawk]

9 hours ago, RETAC21 said:

They certainly could, particularly if the US sits out the war but still has LL in place.

See for example, LCTs and note the emphasis on shipping them to the Med:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Landing_craft_tank

The British empire manpower crisis of 1944 was more a question of manpower usage than a shortage of hands. If Japan sits out the war, 2 important drains on Empire manpower disappear in the SW Pacific and Burma.

Even if Japan is engaged only by the US, substantial forces are freed for other theaters, but the main difference is that they aren't lost and/or wasted in the Middle East during 1941/42, while Italian losses in Lybia would be irrecoverable.

While this scenario only makes sense if Italy does only keep a small force in Lybia, maybe because they see it as undefendable.

[RETAC21]

3 hours ago, seahawk said:

While this scenario only makes sense if Italy does only keep a small force in Lybia, maybe because they see it as undefendable.

Problem is, this is a tangent that impacts the war quite a lot:

1) Germans don't reinforce Lybia, but still invade the Balkans, the Italians manage to put enough forces in Africa to defeat the remainder of the 8th Army and besiege Tobruk as it should be done.

2) Germans don't reinforce Lybia, and don't invade the Balkans, the Italians are defeated in Africa, but the Italian Navy is essentially untouched, so it can defend its own shores.

3) Germans don't reinforce Lybia, and don't invade the Balkans, but the Italians are able to stop the 8th Army in Tripolitania. The Italian Navy is now committed to supporting the African Army and gets attrited and runs out of fuel as historically. In 1942 the Commonwealth armies take Tripolitania and in 1943 they invade Sicily

4) Germans don't reinforce Lybia, but still invade the Balkans, he Italians are able to stop the 8th Army in Tripolitania. The Italian Navy is now committed to supporting the African Army and gets attrited and runs out of fuel as historically. In 1942 the Commonwealth armies take Tripolitania and in 1943 they invade Sicily. The Germans react by sending enough forces to create a Anzio like beachead.

etc. and that, without touching on the air and naval commitments of the Luftwaffe and the Kriegsmarine.

[RichTO90]

15 hours ago, seahawk said:

And then the Allies land with Cruiser tanks armed with 2-pdr (which was effective in France and against the Italians), M3 Lees and early M4s. They meet Tiger Is, StuGs, PzIII with the long 50mm and Pz IV with the 75/43.

Why? The 6-pdr was long planned as the 2-pdr replacement. It had nothing to do with anything in North Africa. Yes, it would be Medium Tank M3 and M4, since they were all more or less planned for in July-August 1940, also long before any desert experience as gained.

[RichTO90]

3 minutes ago, RETAC21 said:

Problem is, this is a tangent that impacts the war quite a lot:

1) Germans don't reinforce Lybia, but still invade the Balkans, the Italians manage to put enough forces in Africa to defeat the remainder of the 8th Army and besiege Tobruk as it should be done.

2) Germans don't reinforce Lybia, and don't invade the Balkans, the Italians are defeated in Africa, but the Italian Navy is essentially untouched, so it can defend its own shores.

3) Germans don't reinforce Lybia, and don't invade the Balkans, but the Italians are able to stop the 8th Army in Tripolitania. The Italian Navy is now committed to supporting the African Army and gets attrited and runs out of fuel as historically. In 1942 the Commonwealth armies take Tripolitania and in 1943 they invade Sicily

4) Germans don't reinforce Lybia, but still invade the Balkans, he Italians are able to stop the 8th Army in Tripolitania. The Italian Navy is now committed to supporting the African Army and gets attrited and runs out of fuel as historically. In 1942 the Commonwealth armies take Tripolitania and in 1943 they invade Sicily. The Germans react by sending enough forces to create a Anzio like beachead.

etc. and that, without touching on the air and naval commitments of the Luftwaffe and the Kriegsmarine.

The problem for all four is that if there is no Sperrverband Rommel, then the WDF regroups and by March 1941 advances on Tripolitania against an Italian force that the Italians were unable to reinforce substantially until that fall.

[seahawk]

59 minutes ago, RETAC21 said:

Problem is, this is a tangent that impacts the war quite a lot:

1) Germans don't reinforce Lybia, but still invade the Balkans, the Italians manage to put enough forces in Africa to defeat the remainder of the 8th Army and besiege Tobruk as it should be done.

2) Germans don't reinforce Lybia, and don't invade the Balkans, the Italians are defeated in Africa, but the Italian Navy is essentially untouched, so it can defend its own shores.

3) Germans don't reinforce Lybia, and don't invade the Balkans, but the Italians are able to stop the 8th Army in Tripolitania. The Italian Navy is now committed to supporting the African Army and gets attrited and runs out of fuel as historically. In 1942 the Commonwealth armies take Tripolitania and in 1943 they invade Sicily

4) Germans don't reinforce Lybia, but still invade the Balkans, he Italians are able to stop the 8th Army in Tripolitania. The Italian Navy is now committed to supporting the African Army and gets attrited and runs out of fuel as historically. In 1942 the Commonwealth armies take Tripolitania and in 1943 they invade Sicily. The Germans react by sending enough forces to create a Anzio like beachead.

etc. and that, without touching on the air and naval commitments of the Luftwaffe and the Kriegsmarine.

I think 2. A limited German help in the Balkans to avoid an Italian defeat there, but no support in Africa.

No German support at all probably means the end of the alliance between Germany and Italy.

 

[Markus Becker]

11 minutes ago, seahawk said:

I think 2. A limited German help in the Balkans to avoid an Italian defeat there, but no support in Africa.

No German support at all probably means the end of the alliance between Germany and Italy.

 

Wrt the Balkans,

the British would certainly been less involved by default. The units that went into Greece came from the WDF and were one reason why Operation Compass ended before all of Libya was taken. 

 

[Stuart Galbraith]

1 hour ago, RichTO90 said:

Why? The 6-pdr was long planned as the 2-pdr replacement. It had nothing to do with anything in North Africa. Yes, it would be Medium Tank M3 and M4, since they were all more or less planned for in July-August 1940, also long before any desert experience as gained.

I seem to recall retention of the 2pdr was because we lost so many guns at Dunkirk, it was easier to continue production of the 2pdr at full rate, rather than change to 6pdr. I guess this affected the situation as far as tank guns was concerned as well.

[RETAC21]

1 hour ago, RichTO90 said:

The problem for all four is that if there is no Sperrverband Rommel, then the WDF regroups and by March 1941 advances on Tripolitania against an Italian force that the Italians were unable to reinforce substantially until that fall.

It seems at least Ariete (landed Jan-Feb) and Trento (Feb) would be available before March. The defense of Tripoli would already have the following divisions:

- 25th Infantry "Bologna"

- 55th Infantry "Savona"

- remains of the 60th Infantry "Sabratha"

Under command of the Tripoli Fortified Camp (free translation)

Seems about equal to the WDF.

[Perun]

3 hours ago, RETAC21 said:

Problem is, this is a tangent that impacts the war quite a lot:

1) Germans don't reinforce Lybia, but still invade the Balkans, the Italians manage to put enough forces in Africa to defeat the remainder of the 8th Army and besiege Tobruk as it should be done.

2) Germans don't reinforce Lybia, and don't invade the Balkans, the Italians are defeated in Africa, but the Italian Navy is essentially untouched, so it can defend its own shores.

3) Germans don't reinforce Lybia, and don't invade the Balkans, but the Italians are able to stop the 8th Army in Tripolitania. The Italian Navy is now committed to supporting the African Army and gets attrited and runs out of fuel as historically. In 1942 the Commonwealth armies take Tripolitania and in 1943 they invade Sicily

4) Germans don't reinforce Lybia, but still invade the Balkans, he Italians are able to stop the 8th Army in Tripolitania. The Italian Navy is now committed to supporting the African Army and gets attrited and runs out of fuel as historically. In 1942 the Commonwealth armies take Tripolitania and in 1943 they invade Sicily. The Germans react by sending enough forces to create a Anzio like beachead.

etc. and that, without touching on the air and naval commitments of the Luftwaffe and the Kriegsmarine.

interesting scenarios but I think that closest to real capabilities of involved parties are scenario # 2 and 4. Italians dont have chances if they were alone in Africa but Brits also would have tough time if any in Sicily and Italy if they acted alone.

[Markus Becker]

3 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

I seem to recall retention of the 2pdr was because we lost so many guns at Dunkirk, it was easier to continue production of the 2pdr at full rate, rather than change to 6pdr. I guess this affected the situation as far as tank guns was concerned as well.

Exactly what I read/heard. The switch would have resulted in some downtime as the factories re-tooled and that could not be afforded post-Dunkirk for some time. 

 

3 hours ago, RETAC21 said:

It seems at least Ariete (landed Jan-Feb) and Trento (Feb) would be available before March. The defense of Tripoli would already have the following divisions:

- 25th Infantry "Bologna"

- 55th Infantry "Savona"

- remains of the 60th Infantry "Sabratha"

Under command of the Tripoli Fortified Camp (free translation)

Seems about equal to the WDF.

Yes but the British can use their naval and especially the superior air forces to throttle the re-supply, the more the closer they get. IRL that was el Agheila 650 km away. Maybe getting to Sirte suffices? 

[RETAC21]

3 minutes ago, Markus Becker said:

Exactly what I read/heard. The switch would have resulted in some downtime as the factories re-tooled and that could not be afforded post-Dunkirk for some time. 

Yes but the British can use their naval and especially the superior air forces to throttle the re-supply, the more the closer they get. IRL that was el Agheila 650 km away. Maybe getting to Sirte suffices? 

Could they? I don't think they had such logistical largesse to support an advance on Tripoli from Bengazhi, particularly as the Italian Navy remains in play.

[Markus Becker]

14 minutes ago, RETAC21 said:

Could they? I don't think they had such logistical largesse to support an advance on Tripoli from Bengazhi, particularly as the Italian Navy remains in play.

It seems the biggest factor for the end of Compass was Greece. Though I did read that logistics got more difficult for the British around el Agheila, for some time and andvance would have been just chasing the defeated Italian garrison forces.

The British used the captured ports along the coast, the Axis much less so because of RAF and RN action.

[RETAC21]

14 minutes ago, Markus Becker said:

It seems the biggest factor for the end of Compass was Greece. Though I did read that logistics got more difficult for the British around el Agheila, for some time and andvance would have been just chasing the defeated Italian garrison forces.

The British used the captured ports along the coast, the Axis much less so because of RAF and RN action.

This discusses logistics from the Axis POV, but the port capacities should be the same for the British: https://warfarehistorynetwork.com/article/north-african-campaign-wwiis-ultimate-war-of-logistics/

[Stuart Galbraith]

19 minutes ago, Markus Becker said:

It seems the biggest factor for the end of Compass was Greece. Though I did read that logistics got more difficult for the British around el Agheila, for some time and andvance would have been just chasing the defeated Italian garrison forces.

The British used the captured ports along the coast, the Axis much less so because of RAF and RN action.

I think I remember O Connor in an episode of The World at War, and he was still complaining about it 30 years later. He seemed to believe he could have finished the Italians if his units hadn't been called off to go elsewhere.

[Markus Becker]

1 hour ago, RETAC21 said:

This discusses logistics from the Axis POV, but the port capacities should be the same for the British: https://warfarehistorynetwork.com/article/north-african-campaign-wwiis-ultimate-war-of-logistics/

The port facilities were only one problem. Axis supply ships heading for say Tobruk were routinely falling victim to air raids right after they made port. 

I am not aware that British logistics suffered from enemy action. Emphasis on me not being aware. 

Edited February 2, 2024 by Markus Becker

[Markus Becker]

Wrt Italian reinforcements. What was between Sirte and El Agheila when London call off Compass? What could have arrived at Sirte in time? 

 

Last and most important, it's not good enough if the British get stopped between the two places. They'll just pause, build up supplies and forces and then launch the next offensive. In the meantime they will use their superior naval and air forces to throttle Italian logistics. 

 

Note that the port of Tripoli was a huge bottleneck even if it wasn't bombed every other day. The port facilities could not service more than very few ships at a time and you could not have several times that many loaded ships waiting in port for their turn. They'd be attacked. Especially now with RAF bases east of Benghazi. 

 

The Italians need to push the WDF back and far back. I don't see that. 

[RETAC21]

4 minutes ago, Markus Becker said:

Wrt Italian reinforcements. What was between Sirte and El Agheila when London call off Compass? What could have arrived at Sirte in time? 

Last and most important, it's not good enough if the British get stopped between the two places. They'll just pause, build up supplies and forces and then launch the next offensive. In the meantime they will use their superior naval and air forces to throttle Italian logistics. 

Note that the port of Tripoli was a huge bottleneck even if it wasn't bombed every other day. The port facilities could not service more than very few ships at a time and you could not have several times that many loaded ships waiting in port for their turn. They'd be attacked. Especially now with RAF bases east of Benghazi. 

The Italians need to push the WDF back and far back. I don't see that. 

The underlined is what I am not sure about. The closer the Italians are to Tripoli, the better their logistics are and conversely, the worse the CW. This has a direct impact on air power, no fuel, no planes. While the RN likely isn't going to be better than historically, when 90% of the supplies made it across.

[Markus Becker]

Well, it makes getting stuff from Tripolis to the front easier. But you need to get the stuff into port in the first place and IMO that's the problem. One that get more problematic the closer RAF air bases are. Note that the RAF did beat the Italian air force as badly as the army did the ground forces. 

And resupplying the RAF on Malta was easy enough when the British were in control of the Benghazi area. That's another huge problem for the Italians. One they only could deal with with German help.

[RichTO90]

6 hours ago, RETAC21 said:

It seems at least Ariete (landed Jan-Feb) and Trento (Feb) would be available before March. The defense of Tripoli would already have the following divisions:

- 25th Infantry "Bologna"

- 55th Infantry "Savona"

- remains of the 60th Infantry "Sabratha"

Under command of the Tripoli Fortified Camp (free translation)

Seems about equal to the WDF.

Yep. But I doubt after the experience in December 1940-January 1941 the Italians would want to risk another two plus nearly immobile infantry divisions in the desert? The only mobile forces would be Ariete and Trento, which would be unlikely to stop 2nd Armored Division, 4th Indian Division (after June 1941), and 9th Infantry Division, and especially not in any scenario were MERKUR does not happen.

[Markus Becker]

16 hours ago, RichTO90 said:

Yep. But I doubt after the experience in December 1940-January 1941 the Italians would want to risk another two plus nearly immobile infantry divisions in the desert? The only mobile forces would be Ariete and Trento, which would be unlikely to stop 2nd Armored Division, 4th Indian Division (after June 1941), and 9th Infantry Division, and especially not in any scenario were MERKUR does not happen.

Acc. to Wiki they didn't send the two IDs west until after the British began withdrawing anyway. Except for the artillery of one. That was probably what was motorized but the artillery was light in terms of both quality and quantity. 

 

[RETAC21]

16 hours ago, RichTO90 said:

Yep. But I doubt after the experience in December 1940-January 1941 the Italians would want to risk another two plus nearly immobile infantry divisions in the desert? The only mobile forces would be Ariete and Trento, which would be unlikely to stop 2nd Armored Division, 4th Indian Division (after June 1941), and 9th Infantry Division, and especially not in any scenario were MERKUR does not happen.

I completely agree, but they would still need to be dislodged from Tripoli, delaying the wrapping up of the NA campaign, or the Italians could eventually grow more adventurous and indeed venture into the desert after additional reinforcement.