Meanwhile in South America - Venezuela vs Guyana

[Perun]

We’re going to need a bigger Navy

https://committees.parliament.uk/committee/24/defence-committee/news/159793/were-going-to-need-a-bigger-navy/

and you say that this navy could fight? I doubt that Venezuelans are so incompetent as Argentinians were

[BansheeOne]

I don't. 😁

[glenn239]

51 minutes ago, Perun said:

We’re going to need a bigger Navy

https://committees.parliament.uk/committee/24/defence-committee/news/159793/were-going-to-need-a-bigger-navy/

and you say that this navy could fight? I doubt that Venezuelans are so incompetent as Argentinians were

Why does Venezuela need to fight directly?  All the cool kids are fighting by proxy these days.

[TrustMe]

lol Glenn.

[Perun]

1 hour ago, glenn239 said:

Why does Venezuela need to fight directly?  All the cool kids are fighting by proxy these days.

Yes, you are correct. A few drones in Caribean shipping lines would do interesting job for some players

[Perun]

1 hour ago, BansheeOne said:

I don't. 😁

I know for you 🙂 I ment on Stuart

[Perun]

"The Brazilian government believes that military demonstrations of support for any party must be avoided, so that the ongoing dialogue process can produce results," the Brazilian foreign ministry said in a statement. It urged all parties to "contain themselves" and resume talks.

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazil-shows-concern-venezuela-slams-uk-warship-sent-guyana-2023-12-29/

[DB]

28 minutes ago, Perun said:

I know for you 🙂 I ment on Stuart

I wonder if you understood Banshee's post at all.

[BansheeOne]

12 minutes ago, Perun said:

I know for you 🙂 I ment on Stuart

Actually I was saying that I don't doubt the Venezuelans are as incompetent as the Argentinians were. 😄

In 1976/78 they got two German Type 209 submarines. In the 2000s they underwent local overhauls. One of the boats never came back after several contractors withdrew due to US sanctions. The other has reportedly not been to sea for years.

In 1980-82 they got six Italian Lupo-Type frigates. All are out of service and mostly sold for scrap, except for Mariscal Sucre which partially sank at her moorings last year.

In 2008-14 they got four Spanish-built Guaicamacuto-class OPVs. In 2020, Naiguatá sank after colliding with a cruise ship she was trying to force into a Venezuelan port in international waters.

In 2011/12 they got four Spanish-built Guaiquerí-class OPVs. Three are left after Warao ran aground a year after commissioning. In 2016, an accidental gun discharge aboard Guaiquerí killed at least one crewmember and injured six.

The other surface combatants they have are 25 patrol boats of less than 1,000 tons. Their biggest claim to fame has been to force away a civilian ship from Puerto Rico attempting to deliver aid to Venezuela during the 2019 humanitarian crisis.

Based upon this record, in a potential confrontation with the Royal Navy I tentatively expect Venezuela to lose a quarter of its fleet without a single shot being fired by the Brits.

[Perun]

11 minutes ago, DB said:

I wonder if you understood Banshee's post at all.

👍

[Perun]

10 minutes ago, BansheeOne said:

1. Actually I was saying that I don't doubt the Venezuelans are as incompetent as the Argentinians were. 😄

 

2. Based upon this record, in a potential confrontation with the Royal Navy I tentatively expect Venezuela to lose a quarter of its fleet without a single shot being fired by the Brits.

1. I got that now 🙂

2. I personaly doubt that any kind of military confroration between UK and Venezuela will hapen but if it does we still have to see how Venezuelan af would do the job

[Markus Becker]

2 hours ago, Perun said:

Yes, you are correct. A few drones in Caribean shipping lines would do interesting job for some players

Maduro is not very likely going to risk his position of power for the benefit of someone else, who's not even in a position to support him with more than nice words.

Btw, the Argentinan navy was a serious force, the case of incompetence was the junta deciding to invade. And i think the consequences of that folly were understood by many in South America. 

Edited January 1, 2024 by Markus Becker

[Stuart Galbraith]

13 hours ago, BansheeOne said:

I don't. 😁

Yeah. Some of us with more than the attention span of a gnat, remember this glorious episode in the Venezuelan Peoples Navy history....

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-52151951

A Venezuelan navy coastal patrol boat sank in the Caribbean after allegedly ramming a cruise ship that it had ordered to change direction.

The owners of the Portuguese-flagged RCGS Resolute said the naval vessel Naiguata also fired shots in an "act of aggression in international waters”.

The collision left the cruise ship, which has a reinforced hull for sailing in icy waters, with only minor damage.

Venezuela accused the Resolute of an act of "aggression and piracy".

It also said it "did not rule out" that the cruise ship "was transporting mercenaries to attack military bases in Venezuela".

President Nicolás Maduro has previously accused the United States and other countries of plotting to overthrow him.

The incident took place near La Tortuga Island, a Venezuelan federal dependency, on 30 March.

Columbia Cruise Services, which operates the Resolute, said the cruise ship had been carrying out routine engine maintenance in international waters more than 13 nautical miles (24km) from La Tortuga.

A statement from the Hamburg-based company said that shortly after midnight, the Naiguata radioed the Resolute, questioning its intentions, and ordered the captain to follow it to a port on Isla Margarita, to the east.

"While the master was in contact with the head office, gunshots were fired and, shortly thereafter, the navy vessel approached the starboard side at speed... and purposely collided with the RCGS Resolute," it added.

"The navy vessel continued to ram the starboard bow in an apparent attempt to turn the ship’s head towards Venezuelan territorial waters."

Although the Resolute - a purpose-built polar expedition vessel - suffered minor damage, the patrol boat began taking on water after hitting its bulbous bow, according to the statement.

Columbia Cruise Services said the Resolute remained in the area for more than an hour and contacted rescue co-ordinators on the Dutch Caribbean island of Curaçao. All attempts to contact the Naiguata went unanswered and the Resolute eventually sailed to Willemstad on Curaçao, it added.

A statement by the Venezuelan military (in Spanish) accused the Resolute of "cowardly and criminal" behaviour, "since it did not attend to the rescue of the crew".

It said all the crew of the Naiguata had been rescued, but did not give details.

Defence Minister Vladimir Padrino López accused the Resolute of ramming the vessel, "which caused its sinking".

President Maduro said an investigation had been launched and he expected "maximum collaboration" from authorities in Curaçao.

 

Oh God, how we laughed...

 

9 hours ago, Markus Becker said:

Maduro is not very likely going to risk his position of power for the benefit of someone else, who's not even in a position to support him with more than nice words.

Btw, the Argentinan navy was a serious force, the case of incompetence was the junta deciding to invade. And i think the consequences of that folly were understood by many in South America. 

 

Yeah, the navy was actually pretty good. And the air force to be fair, actually did a fairly creditable job, at least in ground attack. It was the Army that cut its own throat by appointing 3 commanders to the same position, and did possibly the worlds worst job at supplying its troops. Some of them were handing themselves in because they were dying of exposure out there. The rest of their armed forces had great handicaps, its true. But they hardly rolled over for us, and many of them fought very well.

TBH, there is a significant erecting of molehills into mountains here. Its an OPV. Its not going to start a war, and if by some strange series of events it does, Venezuela would lose against a halfway competent opponent. We are a fully competent opponent, so the outcome for anyone whom has spent any time wargaming this kind of thing is inevitable.

But its not going to happen, and despite the usual suspects dangerously beating themselves into a frenzy at the thought of somehow Venezuela conducting a New Jutland, im thankful for it. The last thing we want is another highly successful war against a South American Government, sustaining an incompetent and unpopular Government in office. Been there, done that.

 

[Stuart Galbraith]

11 hours ago, Perun said:

1. I got that now 🙂

2. I personaly doubt that any kind of military confroration between UK and Venezuela will hapen but if it does we still have to see how Venezuelan af would do the job

It was a 2 minute serach for heavens sake.

https://www.crisisgroup.org/latin-america-caribbean/andes/venezuela/039-venezuelas-military-enigma

'Rapidly expanding economic activities have allowed many high-ranking officers to fill positions unconnected with their core military duties. Under the 1999 constitution, the president is responsible for military promotions at or above the rank of colonel and for senior military appointments. Chavista governments have repeatedly emphasised loyalty over competence when determining these promotions. Partisan appointments and the need for ever more high-ranking officers to fill state or economic posts have inflated the upper ranks: it is estimated that Venezuela has over 2,000 active and retired generals and admirals, compared with well under a thousand in the million-plus-strong U.S. armed forces.

 

Maduro’s military appointments in June and July suggest that his priority is to quell discontent in the bloated officer corps by maintaining a balance between competing cliques while also ensuring that the lines of command in this top-heavy structure remain blurred.

Padrino López stays on as defence minister, while Admiral Remigio Ceballos continues to serve as operational commander of the armed forces; both are regarded as close to Maduro. But the post of commander of the armed forces, effectively the third most important job in the armed forces, is now held by General Alexis Rodríguez Cabello, a close ally of the government’s second most powerful figure, Diosdado Cabello. Maduro replicated this balancing act in appointments lower down the hierarchy, with most appointees associated with the president’s faction while a significant minority are linked to Cabello.'

[Perun]

@Stuart Galbraith I know how terrible it is for you to see the crude reality of the UK being a second- or even third-rate military, but you have to face reality, mate.

[Ssnake]

Meh, a lot of wars look like an ass-kicking contest among leg amputees. Wars are usually being won by the least incompetent army. You'll always find plenty of events falling somewhere into the spectrum from single faceplam to group double facepalm, no matter which army you're looking at.

[rmgill]

On 12/31/2023 at 2:03 PM, TrustMe said:

Possibly, but I would be surprised if the Offshore Patrol boat is able to communicate with a British SSN. That Com System would cost a lot for an expendable ship that was only built to keep a shipyard in work until the type 26 Frigates are built.

You’ve heard of relay aircraft? What do you think the TACAMO birds talk to? There’s also SatCom. You need nothing more than a basic ground station to talk to satellites. It need not be a massive kit like ELF to reach orbiatal coms and then relay from there. 

[TrustMe]

1 hour ago, rmgill said:

You’ve heard of relay aircraft? What do you think the TACAMO birds talk to? There’s also SatCom. You need nothing more than a basic ground station to talk to satellites. It need not be a massive kit like ELF to reach orbiatal coms and then relay from there. 

I was thinking more about ship to undersea sub communication. From what I understand it's a slow and very expensivce bit of kit, doubtful on a OSPB.

[Josh]

1 hour ago, TrustMe said:

I was thinking more about ship to undersea sub communication. From what I understand it's a slow and very expensivce bit of kit, doubtful on a OSPB.

Acoustic comms are not especially expensive but extremely short ranged with low bandwidth, with the performance being variable due to water conditions. Communicating via satellite is a simple high bandwidth bypass. It’s not like an SSN needs to run deep to avoid the Venezuelan navy; they could probably be at periscope depth.

Edited January 3, 2024 by Josh

[TrustMe]

2 hours ago, Josh said:

Acoustic comms are not especially expensive but extremely short ranged with low bandwidth, with the performance being variable due to water conditions. Communicating via satellite is a simple high bandwidth bypass. It’s not like an SSN needs to run deep to avoid the Venezuelan navy; they could probably be at periscope depth.

Of all the triad of military forces i'm weakest in modern naval matters. I abide by your superior insight.

 

2 hours ago, Josh said:

It’s not like an SSN needs to run deep to avoid the Venezuelan navy; they could probably be at periscope depth.

It' speed that a SSN moves at is the main advantage over SSK''s and surface ships. The ability to move out of range after  a torpedeo or AShM launch is it's most important defensive tactic.

On the Asutute class SSN's the periscope is just an optic fiber cable, it's very small and very hard to spot visually and on radar.

 

Edited January 3, 2024 by TrustMe

[RETAC21]

On 1/1/2024 at 11:46 PM, Markus Becker said:

Btw, the Argentinan navy was a serious force, the case of incompetence was the junta deciding to invade. And i think the consequences of that folly were understood by many in South America. 

But the invasion was the pet project of the Navy chief, Admiral Jorge Anaya, who practically coaxed the dimwitted Galtieri to invade the islands and then meddled continuously with the naval deployment until things turned sour.

[Josh]

I suspect the RN boats also have some kind of buoy comm antenna that allows it to be called to raise its satellite mast. The USN is thought to have such a system. The buoy is anchored to the boat by cable and allows the SSN to receive or even transmit at deeper than periscope depths with a less detectable mast (I would guess a whip antenna of some kind but there are no open source descriptions of operation). There are also acoustic com buoys that helos can deploy in the general area of a sub from the air.

[Stuart Galbraith]

40 years ago there were disposable bouy's that you could preprogram a message in, and have it transmit after you left the area.

As for subsea communications, there was a device as long ago as the thresher incident in the 1960's that allowed communication with surface ship. Gertrude I think it was called? Not exactly stealthy, but it should be well up to any ship so equipped to hear under the water to hear it.

Not that im aware OPV's have any kind of sonar fit, but hey, I think the people predicting the next Trafalgar are getting a little overexcited tbh.

Edited January 3, 2024 by Stuart Galbraith

[rmgill]

18 hours ago, TrustMe said:

I was thinking more about ship to undersea sub communication. From what I understand it's a slow and very expensivce bit of kit, doubtful on a OSPB.

Many military coms are via relay. The relay functions are built into the signals plan. 
 

You should expect such a sub will also have UHF and VHF radios with antenna on the periscopes or a special signals mast that can be raised. Thats in addition to the ELF system that can be used when running deep. 
 

OPV transmits to satellite, sat relays to where ever, that relays to the ELF bird in the region, possibly even US TACAMO bird via NATO agreement. It can all be digital and burst format, as well as encrypted so fast and comes out in a printed format on the far end. Very quick, like SMS texting. 
 

I am  typing this out on my phone laying in bed. Its going via wifi relay to a home network that bounces across the internet to cloudflare and then to the Grate Site. Then you look at it on your computer after innumerable internet relays. The Military isn’t just taking directly between individual elements by default. Our computers aren’t talking directly, why do you think all military coms have to? 

Edited January 4, 2024 by rmgill

[X-Files]

People fail to understand Screen Lines, whether ground or naval.   

Cheeky little English armed rowboat sails down to Guyana, it's mission to A) show the Union Jack, B ) act as a diplomatic reminder to assorted dumbasses and C) upon order, present middle fingers from the crew. Yay, swabbies! 

If, per chance, the Venezuelans get really stupid all the English sailors have to do is try and stay alive by zig/zagging really fast and screaming HELP on FM open channel.

There's more than enough things in orbit that Whitehall and the Pentagon will know what's going on in a New York minute.

See also 'gunboat diplomacy'

Edited January 12, 2024 by X-Files