Meanwhile in South America - Venezuela vs Guyana

[rmgill]

That's _spare_ bathroom. Better than Sandy Burglar's pants. 

[Markus Becker]

Good-ish news. 

Both sides agreed not to use violence. If we are lucky all of this has been nothing but a PR stunt by Maduro. Or he got deterred. 

[lucklucky]

Or he got what he wanted. A large cut from Guyana resources.

Edited December 17, 2023 by lucklucky

[X-Files]

A British warship arrived in Guyana on Friday afternoon amid rising tensions from a border dispute between the former British colony and Venezuela.

The HMS Trent’s visit led Venezuela to begin military exercises a day earlier in the eastern Caribbean near its border with Guyana as the Venezuelan government presses its claim to a huge swath of its smaller neighbor.

 

British warship arrives in Guyana as tensions heat up with Venezuela | AP News

[TrustMe]

14 hours ago, X-Files said:

A British warship arrived in Guyana on Friday afternoon amid rising tensions from a border dispute between the former British colony and Venezuela.

The HMS Trent’s visit led Venezuela to begin military exercises a day earlier in the eastern Caribbean near its border with Guyana as the Venezuelan government presses its claim to a huge swath of its smaller neighbor.

 

British warship arrives in Guyana as tensions heat up with Venezuela | AP News

LOL. It's just a off shore patrol boat with nothing heavier than a 30mm gun   It has no air defence systems and is in range of land based Su30's aircraft equiped with anti-ship missiles.

Rule Britannia   

 

[Markus Becker]

6 hours ago, TrustMe said:

LOL. It's just a off shore patrol boat with nothing heavier than a 30mm gun   It has no air defence systems and is in range of land based Su30's aircraft equiped with anti-ship missiles.

Rule Britannia   

 

She got friends. Some you don't see they are over the horizon, some because they are under the surface. 

It's very funny that a regime that wants to annex half the territory of its neighbor calls the deployment of an OPV an escalation. 

Socialists are so unintentionally funny. 

Edited December 31, 2023 by Markus Becker

[TrustMe]

1 hour ago, Markus Becker said:

She got friends. Some you don't see they are over the horizon, some because they are under the surface. 

It's very funny that a regime that wants to annex half the territory of its neighbor calls the deployment of an OPV an escalation. 

Socialists are so unintentionally funny. 

Possibly, but I would be surprised if the Offshore Patrol boat is able to communicate with a British SSN. That Com System would cost a lot for an expendable ship that was only built to keep a shipyard in work until the type 26 Frigates are built.

Edited December 31, 2023 by TrustMe

[TonyE]

9 hours ago, TrustMe said:

LOL. It's just a off shore patrol boat with nothing heavier than a 30mm gun   It has no air defence systems and is in range of land based Su30's aircraft equiped with anti-ship missiles.

Rule Britannia   

 

Punching above their weight!

[Markus Becker]

3 hours ago, TrustMe said:

Possibly, but I would be surprised if the Offshore Patrol boat is able to communicate with a British SSN. 

Why does it have to? Yes, whatever passes for an air force in Venezuela can sink her easily but that's going to have consequences. 

It's one thing to talk tough to Guayana but an actual act of war and against Britain? Consider me sceptical. 

[Roman Alymov]

38 minutes ago, Markus Becker said:

Why does it have to? Yes, whatever passes for an air force in Venezuela can sink her easily but that's going to have consequences. 

What exactly consequences? Right now rebels in rubber flipflops have effectively blocked significant part of maritime trade by use of downgraded clones of old Soviet missiles, and are firing missiles on US warships. Another rebels are sending missiles on US bases. So what if another rebels (or not rebels) score British warship? What will be British responce? Ruin some military bases in VZ by cruize missiles? So what, China would compensate this loss for them.... 

[Markus Becker]

57 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

What exactly consequences? Right now rebels in rubber flipflops have effectively blocked significant part of maritime trade by use of downgraded clones of old Soviet missiles, and are firing missiles on US warships. Another rebels are sending missiles on US bases. So what if another rebels (or not rebels) score British warship? What will be British responce? Ruin some military bases in VZ by cruize missiles? So what, China would compensate this loss for them.... 

Is Venezuela sitting on such a trade route bottleneck? Are they being propped up by a nearby major power? 

Doesn't look so to the former and wrt to the latter Columbia has been at odds with VZ already, Brazil seems to think little of VZs actions, well, rather it's words and Maduro has considerable opposition at home. Also not nearly the money Chavez had but he remains in power. 

Will he try his luck with a three to five day special military operation and one involving the sinking of a British warship? I doubt that but then again dictatorships occasionally act funny. 

[Stuart Galbraith]

11 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

What exactly consequences? Right now rebels in rubber flipflops have effectively blocked significant part of maritime trade by use of downgraded clones of old Soviet missiles, and are firing missiles on US warships. Another rebels are sending missiles on US bases. So what if another rebels (or not rebels) score British warship? What will be British responce? Ruin some military bases in VZ by cruize missiles? So what, China would compensate this loss for them.... 

Oh dear, you really do keep drinking the Kool Aid dont you Roman.

Despite what they might tell you on what passes for Russian news today, if a Royal Navy warship is ever sunk, it will be avenged. I can think the only circumstances we might consider carefully our actions would be China. Anyone else is fair game. Yes, and that means everyone else.

And secondly, how is fairly self evident. We had the implicit threat of force 52 years ago against Guatamala IIRC, which wanted to try it on with British Honduras at the time. And despite what you read in the British Press, the capability still exists.

Then there are the Astute class submarines carrying TLAM. All of this is strictly academic because I dont think the Venezuelan regime is really going to want to take the UK on. OTOH, a regime thats been so stupid as to run a florishing economy into the ground can never be counted on, as we found out once with Argentina.

10 hours ago, Markus Becker said:

Is Venezuela sitting on such a trade route bottleneck? Are they being propped up by a nearby major power? 

Doesn't look so to the former and wrt to the latter Columbia has been at odds with VZ already, Brazil seems to think little of VZs actions, well, rather it's words and Maduro has considerable opposition at home. Also not nearly the money Chavez had but he remains in power. 

Will he try his luck with a three to five day special military operation and one involving the sinking of a British warship? I doubt that but then again dictatorships occasionally act funny. 

And you are right, which is why almost certainly nothing is going to happen. And presumably in a few days when we start pounding on Yemen, the penny is probably going to drop. We have no interests in bombing Venezuela. I see no reason why they want to give us one.

[seahawk]

Try to enforce British power when Russia and China supply Venezuela with means to defend itself. And that is exactly what they should and will do. 

[Stuart Galbraith]

China has got very limited out of area capability. Russia has none, particularly when you remember every deployment takes along a tug boat to take the broken ships home.

I submit, its a lot easier for Britain to enforce its will in the carribean, than it is for China or Russia, on the other side of the planet.

The question is not whether we can do it, because self evidently we can. The question is, to be frank, whats in it for us? Short of interdiction of drugs, I really cant see much point of us being in the region at all. Its just more Tory dickswinging.

[Perun]

1 hour ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Oh dear, you really do keep drinking the Kool Aid dont you Roman.

Despite what they might tell you on what passes for Russian news today, if a Royal Navy warship is ever sunk, it will be avenged. I can think the only circumstances we might consider carefully our actions would be China. Anyone else is fair game. Yes, and that means everyone else.

And secondly, how is fairly self evident. We had the implicit threat of force 52 years ago against Guatamala IIRC, which wanted to try it on with British Honduras at the time. And despite what you read in the British Press, the capability still exists.

Then there are the Astute class submarines carrying TLAM. All of this is strictly academic because I dont think the Venezuelan regime is really going to want to take the UK on. OTOH, a regime thats been so stupid as to run a florishing economy into the ground can never be counted on, as we found out once with Argentina.

And you are right, which is why almost certainly nothing is going to happen. And presumably in a few days when we start pounding on Yemen, the penny is probably going to drop. We have no interests in bombing Venezuela. I see no reason why they want to give us one.

The HMS Prince of Wales broke down after setting sail from Portsmouth

https://www.foxnews.com/world/nato-flagship-breaks-down-shortly-leaving-port

[Perun]

‘Cannibalised’ parts show UK challenge to keep 2 aircraft carriers in fighting shape

The Royal Navy is taking parts from one of its aircraft carriers and using them on its other one

https://www.scmp.com/news/world/europe/article/3220696/cannibalised-parts-show-uk-challenge-keep-2-aircraft-carriers-fighting-shape

[Markus Becker]

16 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

The question is not whether we can do it, because self evidently we can. The question is, to be frank, whats in it for us? Short of interdiction of drugs, I really cant see much point of us being in the region at all. Its just more Tory dickswinging.

That's how de-escalation works. And the UK hasn't been the only one to do this.

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazil-reinforces-border-with-venezuela-guyana-over-esequibo-tensions-2023-12-05/

[Perun]

Royal Navy failing to get enough recruits into basic training

https://www.navylookout.com/royal-navy-failing-to-get-enough-recruits-into-basic-training/

Most of the Royal Navy’s destroyers are unavailable for deployment

https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2021/07/21/most-of-the-royal-navys-destroyers-are-unavailable-for-deployment/

Today, however, the Royal Navy is a shadow of its former self. Government budgeteers have repeatedly, and excessively, cut the numbers of its ships, planes and manpower. It can barely patrol the United Kingdom’s own waters, much less project British influence abroad.

https://maritime-executive.com/editorials/the-decline-of-the-royal-navy

...and it continues...

[Stuart Galbraith]

21 minutes ago, Perun said:

The HMS Prince of Wales broke down after setting sail from Portsmouth

https://www.foxnews.com/world/nato-flagship-breaks-down-shortly-leaving-port

A year and a half ago, and already fixed, if you had checked.

Tell me, how is Admiral Kuznetsov doing these days?

[Stuart Galbraith]

14 minutes ago, Markus Becker said:

That's how de-escalation works. And the UK hasn't been the only one to do this.

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazil-reinforces-border-with-venezuela-guyana-over-esequibo-tensions-2023-12-05/

Wel.. there is a logic that to deter the big players, we stomp on the little guys to show we mean business. And one might deplore that, yet it has sometimes worked.

OTOH, you cant help but think if we handled Ukraine halfway intelligently, we wouldnt be tested by the little guys, so...

[seahawk]

39 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

China has got very limited out of area capability. Russia has none, particularly when you remember every deployment takes along a tug boat to take the broken ships home.

I submit, its a lot easier for Britain to enforce its will in the carribean, than it is for China or Russia, on the other side of the planet.

The question is not whether we can do it, because self evidently we can. The question is, to be frank, whats in it for us? Short of interdiction of drugs, I really cant see much point of us being in the region at all. Its just more Tory dickswinging.

Finding a few Il-76 and Y-20A to bring in cruise missiles and anti-ship missiles. I think they can do this.

[Stuart Galbraith]

Then they have to bring in air defence missiles whilst they emplace the sites, then aircraft. if they do that its a major military buildup that even the CIA would notice. And we all remember what happened in 1962 dont we?

Personally I think its all a storm in a teacup. We wont do anything neither will Venezuela. But as always, the usual folks are trying to turn it into a sub par Tom Clancy novel.

[Perun]

1 hour ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

A year and a half ago, and already fixed, if you had checked.

Tell me, how is Admiral Kuznetsov doing these days?

How should I know, I am not there. I am sure you know so tell me

[Perun]

1 hour ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

A year and a half ago, and already fixed, if you had checked.

Tell me, how is Admiral Kuznetsov doing these days?

Still doubt exists

[seahawk]

55 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Then they have to bring in air defence missiles whilst they emplace the sites, then aircraft. if they do that its a major military buildup that even the CIA would notice. And we all remember what happened in 1962 dont we?

Personally I think its all a storm in a teacup. We wont do anything neither will Venezuela. But as always, the usual folks are trying to turn it into a sub par Tom Clancy novel.

Those systems are mobile. No problem hiding them within Venezuela.