Meanwhile in South America - Venezuela vs Guyana

[Markus Becker]

Brazil is increasing the military presence on their side of the border. 

https://www.dw.com/en/venezuela-guyana-crisis-south-america-urges-peace/a-67661536

 

edit: They have the quarter million city of Bao Vista ~200km from the border with a good road to and into VZ. Ofc the city has an airport too. 

Edited December 9, 2023 by Markus Becker

[glenn239]

4 hours ago, Yama said:

I'm pretty baffled at muted international response. Only US finally gave a quite strong statement, promising "unwavering support" to Guyana. I assume there must have been things going on behind closed doors. Right??

 At the moment, thanks to the election of one of the most incompetent presidents in US history, the administration now  have the following crises of varying seriousness in play:
 

1.  Gaza War

2. Ukraine War

3. Houthi Rebels / Red Sea Piracy

4. Taiwan Crisis

5. North Korea

6. Venezuela and Guyana

7. Resurgence of ISIS

8. BRICS expansion

9. OPEC/Arab alienation

10. Central Africa / Niger Crisis

11. Afghanistan / Taliban 

12.  Fall of US Dollar

13.  2024 Election, possible Trump victory.

14. Hunter Biden prosecution.

 

If the Americans were to focus on #6, what would be the effect on the others?    

 

[seahawk]

Biden has destroyed the US as the leading global power. Everybody knows the US has no backbone.

[Perun]

If invasion starts I doubt that whole teritory could be taken fast. It would take time. On the other side Guyana forces could do little if anything to stop Venezuelan army.

[Dark_Falcon]

26 minutes ago, seahawk said:

Biden has destroyed the US as the leading global power. Everybody knows the US has no backbone.

All we have to do is destroy Vezenuela's air force and navy, then blockade the coast. Brazil will handle the lift on the ground.  That's enough, it'll work.

 

And in the event of war, we should establish that captured or surrendered Russian-supplied will be shipped to Ukraine.  T-72 crosses the border; One way or another it isn't coming back.

[Josh]

13 hours ago, glenn239 said:

3rd parties such as Venezuela can and will advantage of the new age of Great Power discord arising out of an avoidable war in Ukraine.   

How does Ukraine have anything to do with it? 

[Josh]

4 hours ago, Yama said:

I'm pretty baffled at muted international response. Only US finally gave a quite strong statement, promising "unwavering support" to Guyana. I assume there must have been things going on behind closed doors. Right??

The US has a bad history of heavy handed military actions in Latin America, so it is difficult to insert itself into the situation without a lot of regional political support. Outside the hemisphere, no one cares. I am a little surprised OAS isn’t jumping up and down at the prospect of a war of conquest in South America, but perhaps Maduro has more support in left leaning nations than I would guess.

[glenn239]

14 minutes ago, Josh said:

How does Ukraine have anything to do with it? 

In a world where the Great Powers are in harmony, 3rd party actors will always face a unified front from the most powerful actors on the planet.  That keeps things in check.  But in a world where the Great Powers are hostile towards one another, destabilizing players can secure support from one or more of them, causing the overall situation to decay.   

 

[glenn239]

14 minutes ago, Josh said:

The US has a bad history of heavy handed military actions in Latin America, so it is difficult to insert itself into the situation without a lot of regional political support. Outside the hemisphere, no one cares.

It is the Americans that claim to have a global policy based on a rules based system in which Venezuela's actions are illegal and must be opposed.  The world is watching, but in all fairness by this point I'm pretty sure the world has figured out that American global principles and American global policy are two quite different things.

[Josh]

5 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

In a world where the Great Powers are in harmony, 3rd party actors will always face a unified front from the most powerful actors on the planet.  That keeps things in check.  But in a world where the Great Powers are hostile towards one another, destabilizing players can secure support from one or more of them, causing the overall situation to decay.   

 

There is absolutely nothing stopping the U.S. physically from monkey stomping the Venezuelan Air Force and navy and no outside support will be forthcoming. So it isn’t clear why you think Ukraine has anything to do with this. If anything, Venezuela’s largest outside supplier is busy grinding through T62 refurbs that otherwise could be drop shipped to South America. It seems super unlikely any more Su-27 or S300s will be made available either. Had you considered that?

Edited December 9, 2023 by Josh

[lucklucky]

Biden gov. started to make friendly moves to Maduro after Ukraine war started due to energy situation.

[glenn239]

4 hours ago, Josh said:

There is absolutely nothing stopping the U.S. physically from monkey stomping the Venezuelan Air Force and navy and no outside support will be forthcoming. So it isn’t clear why you think Ukraine has anything to do with this. 

You should get to Venezuela and explain your theory to them.  Judging from what they've done, they seem to be under the impression that Biden has needlessly alienated so many oil producing countries that Washington cannot afford one more.

[Josh]

59 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

You should get to Venezuela and explain your theory to them.  Judging from what they've done, they seem to be under the impression that Biden has needlessly alienated so many oil producing countries that Washington cannot afford one more.

It is possible they think that, but with the falling price of oil I wouldn't make that assumption. More over, it seems very unlikely any goodwill from the US extends past the next election regardless of who wins it. I suspect messages to that effect are being sent to the bus driver.

[glenn239]

2 hours ago, Josh said:

It is possible they think that, but with the falling price of oil I wouldn't make that assumption. More over, it seems very unlikely any goodwill from the US extends past the next election regardless of who wins it. I suspect messages to that effect are being sent to the bus driver.

This annexation will be something that occurred in...(checking Google)....Caracas... 10 years ago.  Yet, they waited until this moment to act.   That'll be because they judge this moment as favorable, and as we search for reasons why Maduro might think that, we need look no further than the decisions Biden has made since taking office in 2020 that have contributed to a general crisis of the American position in the world.

 

[Josh]

1 hour ago, glenn239 said:

This annexation will be something that occurred in...(checking Google)....Caracas... 10 years ago.  Yet, they waited until this moment to act.   That'll be because they judge this moment as favorable, and as we search for reasons why Maduro might think that, we need look no further than the decisions Biden has made since taking office in 2020 that have contributed to a general crisis of the American position in the world.

 

Or it is possible domestic or local politics have something to do with it. The world doesn't revolve around the US. Biden has been president for several years and Ukraine has been a war for almost two. It seems odd that only now would Maduro capitalize on those things, unless perhaps Israel's total intel failure had some role to play. Timing wise, that was about the only condition that changed.

Edited December 10, 2023 by Josh

[lucklucky]

Maybe he had a push from Moscow.

 

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/u-s-conducts-joint-military-exercise-with-guyana-as-tensions-with-venezuela-rise

[rmgill]

13 hours ago, Perun said:

If invasion starts I doubt that whole teritory could be taken fast. It would take time. On the other side Guyana forces could do little if anything to stop Venezuelan army.

They don’t need to. They just take the capital and coast and demand concessions. The populated coast is where most everything is. They could put some marine detachments up the river to seize some of the resorts but that would just irk western nations who had citizens there. 

[rmgill]

12 hours ago, Josh said:

There is absolutely nothing stopping the U.S. physically from monkey stomping the Venezuelan Air Force and navy and no outside support will be forthcoming.

Well there’s Joe Biden and whomever his handlers are this week.  

[Josh]

14 minutes ago, rmgill said:

Well there’s Joe Biden and whomever his handlers are this week.  

If we want to throw that conspiracy theory around, sure. 

[lucklucky]

 

[rmgill]

20 hours ago, Josh said:

If we want to throw that conspiracy theory around, sure. 

Its more of a conspiracy theory that Joe is in full control of his faculties and not in elderly Roomba mode when it comes to direction, both nationally or individually. 

[glenn239]

There are claims recently that the Pentagon is no longer providing full briefings for Biden on Yemen because they don't trust his decision making capacity.

Edited December 11, 2023 by glenn239

[Mistral]

2 hours ago, glenn239 said:

There are claims recently that the Pentagon is no longer providing full briefings for Biden on Yemen because they don't trust his decision making capacity.

I also heard that they are burning documents in anticipation of having to evacuate the Pentagon.

[rmgill]

Nonsense. They just put them in shoe boxes and put them in Biden's Garage. 

[Josh]

2 hours ago, rmgill said:

Nonsense. They just put them in shoe boxes and put them in Biden's Garage. 

…or Trumps bathroom.