Meanwhile in South America - Venezuela vs Guyana

[seahawk]

And it shows, how impotent and weak the West is. It is time for a new world order.

[lucklucky]

Venezuela officially annexes part of Guyana.

[Markus Becker]

What is the actual state of the VZ military? Is it close-ish to what's on paper or are we looking at a socialist mess?

[Dark_Falcon]

2 hours ago, Markus Becker said:

What is the actual state of the VZ military? Is it close-ish to what's on paper or are we looking at a socialist mess?

A socialist mess, for the most part. H.I. Sutton wrote a good recent explainer on their navy.

[lucklucky]

4 hours ago, Markus Becker said:

What is the actual state of the VZ military? Is it close-ish to what's on paper or are we looking at a socialist mess?

It is irrelevant if Guyana can't do anything, Maduro just send the Venezuelan army and paramilitary to the rich parts. USA silence is disastrous.

[Markus Becker]

2 hours ago, lucklucky said:

It is irrelevant if Guyana can't do anything, Maduro just send the Venezuelan army and paramilitary to the rich parts. USA silence is disastrous.

Brazil could do something. They have a large city with an airport and a good road connecting to Venezuela's road net. 

And yes, the lack of a Team Biden reaction is ... Afghanistan 2.0?

[rmgill]

3 hours ago, lucklucky said:

It is irrelevant if Guyana can't do anything, Maduro just send the Venezuelan army and paramilitary to the rich parts. USA silence is disastrous.

My boss was just down there last week. He said he saw a lot of foreign military in the hotel in Georgetown. US and many others. 

[TrustMe]

19 minutes ago, rmgill said:

My boss was just down there last week. He said he saw a lot of foreign military in the hotel in Georgetown. US and many others. 

Stay behind special forces troops?

Edited December 6, 2023 by TrustMe

[futon]

I guess the "prepare to defend" is to setup a few strong points somewhere in the middle of the claimed/to-be-annexed area.

Guyana's President Irfaan Ali said the country is taking every necessary step to protect itself from Venezuela, which has ordered its state-owned companies to explore and exploit oil and minerals in Guyana's vast and resource-rich Essequibo region that it considers its own, the Associated Press reported on Wednesday. Ali shared similar sentiments in a Tuesday interview with CBS News, explaining that Guyana is preparing to defend the borders with Venezuela so they remain as they are.

When asked if he has requested military assistance, Ali said his government is reaching out to allies and regional partners, some of which Guyana has defense agreements with, to protect the Essequibo region, which makes up two-thirds of the country.

"Our first line of defense is diplomacy," Ali told CBS News, adding that Guyana has reached out to leaders abroad, including in the U.S., India and Cuba, hoping that "they can encourage Venezuela to do what is right, and ensure that they do not act in a reckless or adventurous manner that could disrupt the pace within this zone."

"But we are also preparing for the worst case scenario ... We are preparing with our allies, with our friends, to ensure that we are in a position to defend what is ours," he said. Although Ali noted that Guyana will prepare its military assets in case of a Venezuelan invasion, he also reiterated, "We want this to be resolved in a peaceful manner."

Matthew Miller, a spokesperson for the U.S. Department of State, echoed the president's hope for peace in a statement, saying, "We would urge Venezuela and Guyana to continue to seek a peaceful resolution of their dispute. This is not something that will be settled by a referendum."

Venezuela has claimed its citizens voted overwhelmingly in favor of a referendum that aims to give Venezuela authority over the Essequibo region in Guyana. It is part of a long-running border dispute between Venezuela and Guyana.

...

https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/guyana-venezuela-conflict-defend-borders-disputed-region-oil-rich-essequibo-president-irfaan-ali/

[lucklucky]

2 hours ago, rmgill said:

My boss was just down there last week. He said he saw a lot of foreign military in the hotel in Georgetown. US and many others. 

Thanks. Still we are talking about a country with 700 thousand Vs 30 Millions. 

Maybe Guyana should have remained linked to UK...

[futon]

So I guess Venezuelan forces haven't actually crossed the border yet.

GEORGETOWN, Guyana -- A military helicopter carrying seven people vanished Wednesday near Guyana’s border with Venezuela, with authorities saying there was bad weather in the area and stressing there was no indication it may have been hit by hostile fire as tensions escalate between the countries.

Two crew members aboard the helicopter were taking five senior officers on an inspection of troops guarding a border area that Venezuela claims as its own, according to Army Chief Brig. Gen. Omar Khan.

Venezuelan troops with heavy equipment and machinery have been amassing on the border in recent weeks, leading to speculation of an imminent invasion. Guyana’s President Irfaan Ali told The Associated Press earlier Wednesday that he was taking all necessary steps to defend his country.

Khan told reporters late Wednesday that Guyana’s Defense Force lost contact with the brand new Bell 412 EPI aircraft after it took off from Olive Creek settlement in western Guyana following a refueling stop.

Asked if the aircraft was shot out of the sky as it flew in a mountainous and heavily forested area, Khan said there are no indications that occurred.

“We do not have any information suggesting that there was any flight by Venezuelan aircraft in that area,” he said. “Speculation is not what I want to go into. Our priority is to save the lives of our officers and ranks.”

...

https://abcnews.go.com/amp/International/wireStory/helicopter-5-senior-military-officials-guyana-missing-border-105444028

Edited December 7, 2023 by futon

[rmgill]

I kinda figure a bunch of money and some PMC's with light infantry, Riverine and a bit of Air Mobile ability/experience plus a decent detachment of surplus UH-1s in good order would go a long way to making it impossible for Venezuela to do anything but founder. 

[rmgill]

And why would Venezuela take anything but a token force into the contested region when the key coastal cities of the not to be contested part are right on the coast. Seize those and force the concession of the western part. 

[Markus Becker]

4 hours ago, rmgill said:

And why would Venezuela take anything but a token force into the contested region when the key coastal cities of the not to be contested part are right on the coast. Seize those and force the concession of the western part. 

Someone with an even half decent navy could turn the tables on that operation. 

[DB]

This isn't so much a grab for the resource rich area, it's a grab for more than 2/3rds of the country. I think Guyana effectively ceases to exist if this occurs.

[rmgill]

It's currently undeveloped jungle. My boss is from there and still has a house on the seawall in Georgetown . That entire region west of the Esaquibo river is largely undeveloped. Mostly what's along the river and waterways. Some small farms and stuff and little resorts up the river. The river goes all the way to Brazil so is an easy line on the map for the Chavistas to put their finger upon and demand. 

[Mike1158]

It would seem that the Putin Procedure is popular with other megalomanics about the world.  Wonder if it will prove to be similarly bloody stupid in execution.

[Markus Becker]

The US has announced they'll hold "air exercises" with the GY forces. 

[futon]

On 12/4/2023 at 12:51 PM, rmgill said:

And it ties down the US in another war. 

https://www.tanknet.org/index.php?/topic/48436-iron-swords-vs-al-aqsa-deluge-israelpalestinians-again/&do=findComment&comment=1709699

[rmgill]

7 hours ago, Mike1158 said:

It would seem that the Putin Procedure is popular with other megalomanics about the world.  Wonder if it will prove to be similarly bloody stupid in execution.

Ukraine is not the first time a nation invaded another over fabricated claims. 

[rmgill]

6 hours ago, Markus Becker said:

The US has announced they'll hold "air exercises" with the GY forces. 

S2 underground makes an interesting point that a single person with a MANPAD could turn the exercises into a direct US involvement. Also given the the GDF has no combat aircraft to speak of, this is a rather lop sided set of ‘exercises’. Probably more a matter of terrain familiarization/mapping and intel gathering.  

[rmgill]

11 minutes ago, futon said:

https://www.tanknet.org/index.php?/topic/48436-iron-swords-vs-al-aqsa-deluge-israelpalestinians-again/&do=findComment&comment=1709699

JMSDF is welcome to assist. 

[futon]

11 minutes ago, rmgill said:

JMSDF is welcome to assist. 

The JSDF is incapable of the dirty work you want done. The IJA on the other hand, can.

[glenn239]

21 hours ago, Mike1158 said:

It would seem that the Putin Procedure is popular with other megalomanics about the world.  Wonder if it will prove to be similarly bloody stupid in execution.

3rd parties such as Venezuela can and will advantage of the new age of Great Power discord arising out of an avoidable war in Ukraine.   

[Yama]

I'm pretty baffled at muted international response. Only US finally gave a quite strong statement, promising "unwavering support" to Guyana. I assume there must have been things going on behind closed doors. Right??