Meanwhile in South America - Venezuela vs Guyana

[lucklucky]

https://defence-blog.com/venezuela-prepares-for-invasion-into-guyana/

Venezuela wants a resource rich part of Guyana.

Brazil mobilises forces for the border

https://defence-blog.com/brazil-mobilizes-military-amid-potential-venezuela-guyana-conflict/

[urbanoid]

Oh, looks like an opportunity to remove this 'bolivarian' cancer at last.

[sunday]

1 hour ago, urbanoid said:

Oh, looks like an opportunity to remove this 'bolivarian' cancer at last.

Could be.

On the art of war aspect, that could be the first conflict fought in that part of the world, between Brazil and Venezuela, since the 1830s for the general area, and perhaps first time in that frontier region.

[lucklucky]

I doubt that Lula will intervene, if it was Bolsonaro it would have been different.

[urbanoid]

The US may do that though, if they attempt to invade.

[lucklucky]

Yes, i think they cannot allow disruption and also increase Maduro power.

[Stargrunt6]

Cuba might jump in and send help.  

[futon]

Leaky oil production got put in high gear as US lifted oil sanctions in October in exchange for election groundwork for next year.

https://www.npr.org/2023/11/29/1215547427/venezuela-oil-spill-maracaibo

Do a land grab quickly while US is distracted with both Ukraine and Israel maybe. 

[Stargrunt6]

Brazil en route.

https://defence-blog.com/brazil-mobilizes-military-amid-potential-venezuela-guyana-conflict/

 

 

[rmgill]

On 12/1/2023 at 11:46 AM, futon said:

Leaky oil production got put in high gear as US lifted oil sanctions in October in exchange for election groundwork for next year.

https://www.npr.org/2023/11/29/1215547427/venezuela-oil-spill-maracaibo

Do a land grab quickly while US is distracted with both Ukraine and Israel maybe. 

And it ties down the US in another war. 

[Perun]

I doubt that US and Brasil would intervene directly

[seahawk]

If you are to loose the election, start a war.

[lucklucky]

The war will be started by Maduro.

The "referendum" in good Socialist fashion is a 95% YES  to annex 70% of Guyana an area bigger than Greece.

[rmgill]

Whats the Order of battle look like? 
 

Guyana seems to have a very small defense force. Less than a company’s worth of Armored cars. Some mortars, small arms and no combat aircraft at all.  1 infantry battalion it would seem. 

Edited December 4, 2023 by rmgill

[TrustMe]

One problem is due to the terrain. It's dense jungle, with no roads infrastructure or airfields means that mobility is restricted to river boats and water craft. Terrain like that can swallow up armies as the US found to it's cost in Vietnam.

Edited December 4, 2023 by TrustMe

[lucklucky]

Vietnam had direct support. How Venezuela will get support? From Sandinistas, cartels and some Cuban?

[TrustMe]

1 hour ago, lucklucky said:

Vietnam had direct support. How Venezuela will get support? From Sandinistas, cartels and some Cuban?

I wasn't speaking so much as to a US invasion. Simply that the terrain is very restrictive and convential mechanized warfare would not work nor air support. FARC kept going for over 50 years in a similar terrain in Colombia.

[Perun]

2 hours ago, rmgill said:

Whats the Order of battle look like? 
 

Guyana seems to have a very small defense force. Less than a company’s worth of Armored cars. Some mortars, small arms and no combat aircraft at all.  1 infantry battalion it would seem. 

With that small force I doubt that they can do much against Venezuela

[mandeb48]

 

This seems like a tipical show to distract the moorons of economics problems. Very Latin American

[rmgill]

2 hours ago, TrustMe said:

One problem is due to the terrain. It's dense jungle, with no roads infrastructure or airfields means that mobility is restricted to river boats and water craft.

I suspect the main fighting will be over Georgetown, Anna Regina and Albion. With the movement made via water craft. What does Venezuela have for riverine/coastal forces? 

2 hours ago, TrustMe said:

Terrain like that can swallow up armies as the US found to it's cost in Vietnam.

Huh? The Vietnam war was lost on the home front to congress walking away. 

Heavy tanks is not the way to go. But Riverine craft, light infantry, air mobile via helicopter sand light armor can work. And this is a tank themed web forum, light forces in the form of armored cavalry worked QUITE well sport. 

[TrustMe]

The TOEO of Guyana in the military balance says that Guyana has..

 

The Guyana defence force is focused on border control ... close ties with brazil ... bilateral agrements with China, US, France .... trains regulary ... equipment mostly second hand ... no national defence industry except for some small maintenance facilities.

 

population 789,683

 

Army 3000 Reserve 500

1 SF squadron

3 infranty bat

1 art company

1 combat support company

1 enginerring bat

some EE9 Cascaval

some towed M46

some mortor

 

Navy 200 Reserve 170

1 Ex - UK River Minsweeaper

4 patrol boats

 

Air 200

some Bell 206

some Cessna 206

some Y12

[TrustMe]

2 hours ago, rmgill said:

I suspect the main fighting will be over Georgetown, Anna Regina and Albion. With the movement made via water craft. What does Venezuela have for riverine/coastal forces? 

Huh? The Vietnam war was lost on the home front to congress walking away. 

Heavy tanks is not the way to go. But Riverine craft, light infantry, air mobile via helicopter sand light armor can work. And this is a tank themed web forum, light forces in the form of armored cavalry worked QUITE well sport. 

 

In a potential war I think that outside coastal regions (were the main population base is) vehicles can traveling by road there we could see Venezuela use it's superior navy to dominate them. Guyana without support though could fight a insurgency to a limited extent deep in the jungle. However the Ven armed forces outnumber the Guyana's 50 to 1  

[TrustMe]

Overview of the Venezuela Navy

 

http://www.hisutton.com/Venezuelan_Navy_2023.html

[Josh]

It seems unlikely there's anything Guyana can do to stop this and unlikely that anyone else is going to get directly involved.

[Perun]

Agree with that