Iron Swords vs. Al-Aqsa Deluge - Israel/Palestinians (again)

[seahawk]

It would be clever, if Hezbollah attacks from the north ones IDF forces converge on Gaza. Hezbollah should be able to inflict even more casualties.

[Stuart Galbraith]

2 hours ago, lucklucky said:

Or maybe not or taking one for the team

 

Remember what Westmorland said to the Press about how much quiter things were right now, about a week before Tet? None so gullible as those that choose to believe what they want to believe.

Seems a very popular trend in the world right now.

[Roman Alymov]

7 hours ago, lucklucky said:

Peace Rave festival in border with Gaza was also attacked by Hamas. One of the woman murdered was said to be a German national. It is probable other non Israelis were also murdered and kidnapped.

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2023/10/so-much-for-peace.php

At least two girls captured there are Russians (i mean, with Russian names - not clear what citizenship(s) they got).

[Der Zeitgeist]

IDF soldiers singing the Hatikvah before their deployment last night.

 

[Stuart Galbraith]

55 minutes ago, lucklucky said:

Don't be ridiculous.

No, I think he probably has a point. After all, in 1973 many senior commanders, many soldiers, were away from their post for the religious holiday. Added to everyone being hacked off with Netanyahu's antics, reservists not being adequately trained, then the manpower problem explains a lot, not least the initial failure of Iron dome.

I will say this, yes, its entirely probable there was an intelligence failure as well.. OTOH, is just about possible that some parts of the Israeli intelligence service passed credible reports up the chain but were dismissed because politics. That happened in 1973 as well.

Or maybe Netanyahu just stopped listening to people. He seems pretty good at that.

[Der Zeitgeist]

 

[Roman Alymov]

Some sort of big attack drones lounched from inside buildings in Gaza https://t.me/milinfolive/107961

[Roman Alymov]

Signals btn commander, LtCol among those killed by surprise attack on IDF military base https://t.me/milinfolive/107963

[Mighty_Zuk]

1 hour ago, lucklucky said:

Don't be ridiculous.

In what way is that ridiculous?

[MechInf]

Is this true? The reason we didn't see the IDF in the first 12 hours: the two battalions closest to the border were heavily engaged and basically taken out of the picture?

(3). A large list of senior officers in spearhead units in the Golani and Nahal divisions were killed this morning. (4). 24 female observers were killed (slaughtered) from Camp Reim, those who survived were taken prisoner. (5). From the 13th Golani Battalion, Companies B and C, were almost completely wiped out. (6). From the 51st Golani Battalion, Company C was almost wiped out, and in company A There are heavy casualties. (7). The 12th Battalion which is in Nablus was sent in to replace them, as well as: — Golani patrol — Navy seals (Sheitat 13) — special forces of Sheldag, — Special Forces of the Defense South. (8). Hamas terrorists slaughtered Golanis forces in Kerem Shalom and Erez. (9). Senior can Israeli commander that were killed, include so far: — Commander of Nagal Brigade. — Commander of Southern Brigade. — Deputy Commander of Southern Brigade. — Commander of Southern Brigade. — Southern Command Officer, Sergeant Karakel. — Gaza Liaison Brigade, 13th Sergeant Major. — 51st battalion commander. — Platoon Commander 931. — Special Forces Nahal commander.

[Roman Alymov]

12 minutes ago, MechInf said:

Is this true? The reason we didn't see the IDF in the first 12 hours: the two battalions closest to the border were heavily engaged and basically taken out of the picture?

(3). A large list of senior officers in spearhead units in the Golani and Nahal divisions were killed this morning. (4). 24 female observers were killed (slaughtered) from Camp Reim, those who survived were taken prisoner. (5). From the 13th Golani Battalion, Companies B and C, were almost completely wiped out. (6). From the 51st Golani Battalion, Company C was almost wiped out, and in company A There are heavy casualties. (7). The 12th Battalion which is in Nablus was sent in to replace them, as well as: — Golani patrol — Navy seals (Sheitat 13) — special forces of Sheldag, — Special Forces of the Defense South. (8). Hamas terrorists slaughtered Golanis forces in Kerem Shalom and Erez. (9). Senior can Israeli commander that were killed, include so far: — Commander of Nagal Brigade. — Commander of Southern Brigade. — Deputy Commander of Southern Brigade. — Commander of Southern Brigade. — Southern Command Officer, Sergeant Karakel. — Gaza Liaison Brigade, 13th Sergeant Major. — 51st battalion commander. — Platoon Commander 931. — Special Forces Nahal commander.

Aren't Golani supposed to be on another side of Israel?

[RETAC21]

There must be something more going on here, I can believe manpower issues are a root cause, but I suspect Cyberwarfare and jamming would also be there at the same time to delay/negate the Israeli response.

To put some perspective, 9-11 was 9 deaths per million US inhabitants; the know deaths so far amount to 33 per million, and counting.

[seahawk]

The videos of Hamas show the captured bases largely empty considering the size of the base. Holiday + reservists staying away due to political reasons + a large part of the manpower used to protect the settlers and you end up with such a token force.

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1710673740843938042

Edited October 8, 2023 by seahawk

[MechInf]

The videos you saw of empty bases were the sanitized versions allowed for mass consumption. The uncensored videos of the same base shows dozens of dead IDF soldiers who were killed in a ground battle.
 

 

[Der Zeitgeist]

 

[Samsa]

Pardon the ignorant question, but can anyone with a better understanding of that conflict summarize what the purpose of such an attack could be?

I somewhat understand the general missile attacks/bombings/attacks on the IDF. That's unfortunately par of the course, doesn't raise many international eyebrows and keeps the Israelis on edge.

This style of attack with very clear, deliberate and self publicized atrocities against civilians (and POWs i think(?)) don't help their cause at all. And despite the unprecedented success against the IDF they don't  really have any prospect of mitarily defeating Isreal once they start to actually fight back. Sure they sow some chaos but precedents like that can also rally a country to a cause.

I know little about the intricacies of that conflict, so maybe I miss the obvious...

[seahawk]

7 minutes ago, Samsa said:

Pardon the ignorant question, but can anyone with a better understanding of that conflict summarize what the purpose of such an attack could be?

I somewhat understand the general missile attacks/bombings/attacks on the IDF. That's unfortunately par of the course, doesn't raise many international eyebrows and keeps the Israelis on edge.

This style of attack with very clear, deliberate and self publicized atrocities against civilians (and POWs i think(?)) don't help their cause at all. And despite the unprecedented success against the IDF they don't  really have any prospect of mitarily defeating Isreal once they start to actually fight back. Sure they sow some chaos but precedents like that can also rally a country to a cause.

I know little about the intricacies of that conflict, so maybe I miss the obvious...

1. We can hurt Israel gives you brownie points with the population

2. your sponsors (Iran) are very happy if the response of the Israelis ends the co-operation between Israel and Arabic states.

3. unavoidable atrocities by Israel generate donations and support in the Arab world (your own atrocities might do the same)

[Der Zeitgeist]

10 minutes ago, Samsa said:

Pardon the ignorant question, but can anyone with a better understanding of that conflict summarize what the purpose of such an attack could be?

I somewhat understand the general missile attacks/bombings/attacks on the IDF. That's unfortunately par of the course, doesn't raise many international eyebrows and keeps the Israelis on edge.

This style of attack with very clear, deliberate and self publicized atrocities against civilians (and POWs i think(?)) don't help their cause at all. And despite the unprecedented success against the IDF they don't  really have any prospect of mitarily defeating Isreal once they start to actually fight back. Sure they sow some chaos but precedents like that can also rally a country to a cause.

I know little about the intricacies of that conflict, so maybe I miss the obvious...

In addition to what seahawk already posted:

Sure, they can't hope to defeat Israel, but they can hope to not be defeated by Israel, once again.

I think a lot of the propaganda narrative of Hamas hinges on the fact that they held on to that relatively small stretch of land for almost 20 years now, starting attacks and skirmishes with Israel every few years, with increasing intensity and death toll among the Israeli people, while never being knocked out from the Israeli responses so far.

The question now is if something about this basic status quo has been changed by yesterday's attack.

[RETAC21]

16 minutes ago, Samsa said:

Pardon the ignorant question, but can anyone with a better understanding of that conflict summarize what the purpose of such an attack could be?

I somewhat understand the general missile attacks/bombings/attacks on the IDF. That's unfortunately par of the course, doesn't raise many international eyebrows and keeps the Israelis on edge.

This style of attack with very clear, deliberate and self publicized atrocities against civilians (and POWs i think(?)) don't help their cause at all. And despite the unprecedented success against the IDF they don't  really have any prospect of mitarily defeating Isreal once they start to actually fight back. Sure they sow some chaos but precedents like that can also rally a country to a cause.

I know little about the intricacies of that conflict, so maybe I miss the obvious...

I will defer to MZ for the ground view, but for starters:

1) Israel has been doing a number of Ops in the WB against militants during the summer, see for example: https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2023/07/03/israel-launches-major-military-operation-in-west-bank-killing-seven-palestinians_6042053_4.html. By launching this operation, Hamas regains initiative and wins cookie points in the WB population

2) By taking hostages, it forces the IDF to moderate its response and puts Hamas on the same plane as the Israel's government, or let's the Israeli government risk killing them and getting blamed.

3) This will pull the Israelis together, and inevitably, someone will leash against innocent Palestinians, earning cookie points for the terrorists

4) It humiliates the IDF (and I suspect Hamas didn't expect to be this successful) so it forces a response that will bog the IDF down in reoccupying Gaza or yield a victory by having Hamas survive.

5) It panders to the Hamas backers in Iran, showing they can be useful underlings to keep Israel occupied.

6) It plays to audiences in Arab countries that may not be too keen in growing close to Israel.

So, at the price of a bunch of terrorists, Hamas is set to win a victory (not a military one, but that's irrelevant in COIN) while Israel is forced to make some very tough choices if they want to win (pretty much, occupy Gaza).

Freezing the war through the building of a local equivalent of the Berlin Wall (2 walls, minefields, zone of death) is the other way out for Israel that I can see, but long term, that's untenable IMO.

[BansheeOne]

9 hours ago, lucklucky said:

Peace Rave festival in border with Gaza was also attacked by Hamas. One of the woman murdered was said to be a German national. It is probable other non Israelis were also murdered and kidnapped.

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2023/10/so-much-for-peace.php

She's rapidly becoming the international face for the Palestinian atrocities (of course cynically speaking, good looks always help), though there is some misinformation, not necessarily intentional so soon in this chaos. She's a dual German-Israeli citizen living in Israel, so she was not visiting the country, but probably the specific location. The "peace" part of the festival may be an invention for added effect; German media just talk of a kibbutz festival or dance party, and the CNN has it as

Quote

The outdoor Nova Festival event in a rural farmland area near the Gaza-Israel border was supposed to be an all-night dance party, celebrating the Jewish holiday of Sukkot.

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/10/07/middleeast/israel-gaza-fighting-hamas-attack-music-festival-intl-hnk/index.html

The "Times of Israel" also calls it an outdoor "nature" trance festival in honor of Sukkot. Her family says Louk organized it, but I think it's more likely she organized the trip for a "tourist group" they say she was there with.

[Yama]

20 minutes ago, Samsa said:

Pardon the ignorant question, but can anyone with a better understanding of that conflict summarize what the purpose of such an attack could be?

I somewhat understand the general missile attacks/bombings/attacks on the IDF. That's unfortunately par of the course, doesn't raise many international eyebrows and keeps the Israelis on edge.

This style of attack with very clear, deliberate and self publicized atrocities against civilians (and POWs i think(?)) don't help their cause at all.

I see this as sort of Wacht am Rhein equivalent: Hamas are slowly losing anyway, so might just as well try something big which if nothing else, will upset the status quo. UAE and Israel had normalized their relationship, and Saudis are on road to that. Syria is in shambles, no prospect in relations with PA...what there is to look forward to?

[Samsa]

Alright, thanks for the responses! Makes some sense though I can't help but think they messed up by openly and intentionally murdering civilians (apart from the obvious moral issue).

Imo, giving the IDF a very bloody nose (and taking military hostages) would have yielded the same benefits. Plus it would have possibly caused a lot of internal conflict in Israel, showing incompetence of leadership/the mitary/etc.

This way they redirected most of the anger at themselves instead of letting Isreal tear itself up internally.

 

[seahawk]

10 minutes ago, Samsa said:

Alright, thanks for the responses! Makes some sense though I can't help but think they messed up by openly and intentionally murdering civilians (apart from the obvious moral issue).

Imo, giving the IDF a very bloody nose (and taking military hostages) would have yielded the same benefits. Plus it would have possibly caused a lot of internal conflict in Israel, showing incompetence of leadership/the mitary/etc.

This way they redirected most of the anger at themselves instead of letting Isreal tear itself up internally.

 

I doubt they expected to have as much success against the IDF as they did. Civilians are easier targets. The basic idea was to get back into the eyes of the Muslim world and not be forgotten. Which was actually happening in the last years.

[BansheeOne]

Quote

Forces continue to battle terrorists in Gaza border area after devastating assault

Death toll rises above 350, with 1,854 injured; IDF names 26 soldiers killed; many in south still holed up at home as military seeks to ‘stabilize situation,’ evacuate residents

By Michael Bachner, Emanuel Fabian and ToI Staff Today, 9:33 am

Israeli security forces made headway early Sunday toward regaining control of the towns and areas held by Hamas terrorists who infiltrated 24 hours earlier, as the country reeled from one of the darkest days in its history, which saw an unprecedented onslaught on the southern communities with over 350 killed, over 1,800 wounded and apparently dozens kidnapped and taken into the Gaza Strip.

On Sunday morning, over 24 hours after the coordinated assault began, Israeli security forces were still struggling to clear terrorist cells entrenched within devastated communities.

Many civilians were still holed up in their homes, hiding in fear of roving terrorists searching for victims, as troops dealt with some hostage-takers and stormed homes and facilities, shooting the Palestinian gunmen within.

All known hostage situations, which saw Israeli civilians held captive by Hamas gunmen in their towns, were resolved overnight, with army and police forces killing terrorists and rescuing their captives after hours-long standoffs in Sderot, Ofakim and Kibbutz Be’eri, where full control was declared.

However, gunfights were continuing in some communities, such as Kfar Aza, Re’im and likely Erez and Zikim as well.

The Israeli Navy said it killed five Palestinian terrorists hiding on Zikim beach on Sunday morning, close to the border with the Gaza Strip.

“In the last few hours, Navy control units identified five terrorists who were hiding in the Zikim area, in Israeli territory,” the military said.

Footage published by the Israel Defense Forces showed sailors of the 916th Patrol Squadron opening fire at the suspects in the area.

The Health Ministry said 1,854 people were injured, 19 of them in critical condition, 326 in serious condition, and 359 in moderate condition. A further 821 had light injuries, 20 suffered anxiety, and 223 were being medically assessed.

The IDF on Sunday named 26 soldiers killed in the fighting since Saturday morning.

IDF spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari told media on Sunday morning that the military was seeking to “stabilize the situation in the Gaza envelope” and that most incident locations had been “neutralized.”

Hagari said that sweeps for terrorists were still being carried out in Sderot, Zikim, Re’im, and Sufa.

As of Sunday morning, the IDF retook control at 29 locations, he said.

“There are hundreds of dead terrorists. There are dozens of terrorists captured,” Hagari said.

He added that in the coming hours, residents of communities close to the Gaza Strip will be evacuated.

[...]

He said the goals for the coming 12 hours are to fully gain control of the area around the Gaza Strip and kill any remaining terrorists in Israel.

All Hamas government sites will be attacked, he said.

Rocket attacks from Gaza persisted overnight toward southern communities, as the military conducted repeated strikes on what it said were Hamas targets in the Strip, with online footage showing a multi-story building collapsing in Gaza City, apparently the Al-Watan tower.

In an assault of startling breadth, Hamas gunmen rolled into as many as 22 locations in southern Israel on Saturday morning, including towns and other communities as far as 15 miles (24 kilometers) from the Gaza border. In some places, they roamed for hours, gunning down civilians and soldiers as Israel’s military scrambled to muster a response.

The Israel Defense Forces was engaged in a massive build-up of forces in preparation for a military response the country’s leaders vowed would be unprecedented, with the army carrying out strikes on terror targets across the Strip throughout the day. Gaza health officials said at least 230 were killed there, with hundreds wounded.

The army said four divisions of reservists were being deployed to the Gaza border, joining 35 battalions that were already there.

Early Sunday morning, Hebrew media reported that security forces had managed to rescue 48 civilians held captive for hours in the dining hall of Kibbutz Be’eri, and had killed around 10 Palestinian terrorists in a gun battle.

Some Hebrew media reports said Israeli forces were still working to clear the kibbutz of terrorists and that exchanges of gunfire were being heard.

Also overnight, Israeli forces stormed a home in Ofakim and rescued two Israelis, a couple in their 60s, who had been held captive in their own apartment for 16 hours.

Reports said that four or five terrorists were killed, and that three special police officers from the Yamam unit were injured, including one seriously.

[...]

A short while later, Israeli police forces regained control of a Sderot police station where Palestinian terrorists who infiltrated from Gaza had been holed up, following an hours-long standoff.

At least 10 terrorists were killed at that scene, police said.

[...]

The death toll from the day’s events continued to rise by the hour and as of Sunday morning stood at 300 people, many of them civilians slain in their homes and in the streets, as well as at a large outdoor rave targeted by the terrorists.

Channel 12 news reported that dozens of bodies were removed from the site of the party near Kibbutz Re’im where people were massacred and others fled the scene in panic. The scenes of chaos that erupted there were some of the first and most disturbing images to be published amid the assault. Eyewitnesses said gunfire tore into the crowd even as hundreds of partygoers attempted to flee. Some hid for hours in woodland and orchards before being extracted by security forces.

[...]

https://www.timesofisrael.com/forces-continue-to-battle-terrorists-in-gaza-border-area-after-devastating-assault/

[BansheeOne]