Iron Swords vs. Al-Aqsa Deluge - Israel/Palestinians (again)

[Strannik]

6 minutes ago, crazyinsane105 said:

I don’t buy this. Iron Dome worked perfectly fine a few years back when the Palestinians fired thousands of rockets, many of them also aimed at Tel Aviv.

 

Maybe some batteries are off line, so oversaturation.  After all it's the same dumb rockets are being used from the same location.

[crazyinsane105]

15 minutes ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

We talked real stuff, now let's talk emotions.

For the Israeli public, this is the equivalent of what Americans felt during 9/11. I was too young to truly understand in real time, but for a tragedy of that magnitude I had to ask around when old enough to sympathize and I was astounded by the level of despair, helplessness, and rage, primarily caused by the thought "How could this happen?"

This is the same mix of emotions Israelis feel right now. Streets are empty. Nobody smiles. Reporters teary eyed. People glued to the TV and internet for the next new report.

It's true that Israelis are deeply divided due to Netanyahu's political tactics, but there is also a fair amount of unity on this issue. 

In 2002 the IDF launched an operation in Jenin primarily driven by public outrage over the massive amount of casualties caused during the intifada. But unlike the intifada, in which over 1,000 Israelis were murdered over 5 years but as of now there are 250 confirmed dead and dozens kidnapped, and I estimate we'll verify hundreds more in the coming days.

The action Israelis demand is unprecedentedly violent, including the most dovish ones. Unfortunately, it appears to the public that the army is acting too slow, too late, too little.

Let’s say 10,000 Palestinians are killed in the coming days.

How does that change things in the long run? If 2008 couldn’t solve the militant issue (when Israel was just a few kilometers away from the entirety of Hamas leadership), I am unsure what difference more dead Palis will make this time around.

Unless the Israelis want to occupy Gaza permanently, but dear god that would be a terrible decision as well. 
 

[Strannik]

Them 155mm shells

 

 

Edited October 7, 2023 by Strannik

[Roman Alymov]

15 minutes ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

We talked real stuff, now let's talk emotions.

For the Israeli public, this is the equivalent of what Americans felt during 9/11. I was too young to truly understand in real time, but for a tragedy of that magnitude I had to ask around when old enough to sympathize and I was astounded by the level of despair, helplessness, and rage, primarily caused by the thought "How could this happen?"

This is the same mix of emotions Israelis feel right now. Streets are empty. Nobody smiles. Reporters teary eyed. People glued to the TV and internet for the next new report.

It's true that Israelis are deeply divided due to Netanyahu's political tactics, but there is also a fair amount of unity on this issue. 

In 2002 the IDF launched an operation in Jenin primarily driven by public outrage over the massive amount of casualties caused during the intifada. But unlike the intifada, in which over 1,000 Israelis were murdered over 5 years but as of now there are 250 confirmed dead and dozens kidnapped, and I estimate we'll verify hundreds more in the coming days.

The action Israelis demand is unprecedentedly violent, including the most dovish ones. Unfortunately, it appears to the public that the army is acting too slow, too late, too little.

Pro-Russian take (from Oleg Tsaryov, former Ukraine Presidential candidate, now Russian politician):

"In the video, the Arabs take the Israelis captive.

Looking at the consequences of the Arab militants' raid on Jewish towns and settlements, it can be concluded that if civilianl Jews had weapons available, such a catastrophe might have been avoided. However, the fact remains that civilian Jews did not have weapons, and because of this, many people are now being held captive in Gaza, because they could not defend themselves.

Israel has just announced the recruitment of volunteers to maintain law and order. I am sure that the process of recruiting and issuing weapons to volunteers will be carried out quickly. After all, a Jew trusts a Jew*. Undoubtedly, weapons will be used only to protect Jews.
It's a pity that our Russian decisions are not made so quickly." (original with video of Jewish girl driven away on motorbile while her husband/boyfrend dragged to captiviry on foot by crowd of Arabs who are not armed at all, at least visibly https://t.me/olegtsarov/8822 )

    Even during pro-Ukrainian raids on Belgorod and Crimea it was not SO bad, despite of relatively tight gun laws in Russia (while in one case local village self-defence commander was executed by pro-Ukrainians in own house - as he, surprise, was unarmed as MoD failed to distribute firearms even to delf-defence militia members). There is a lot of hunting rifles etc. in Russia. While Israel civilians seems to be completely unarmed?

* i am afraid it is Russian legend, not reality, taking into consideration traditional fractions frictions in Israel.

[BAMF]

1 minute ago, crazyinsane105 said:

Let’s say 10,000 Palestinians are killed in the coming days.

How does that change things in the long run? If 2008 couldn’t solve the militant issue (when Israel was just a few kilometers away from the entirety of Hamas leadership), I am unsure what difference more dead Palis will make this time around.

Unless the Israelis want to occupy Gaza permanently, but dear god that would be a terrible decision as well. 
 

10,000 is not enough. In war you have to kill enough to make a difference.  The IDF should raze Gaza and the surviving Palestinians should be relocated to other Arab countries. It sucks to suck and the Palestinians suck. Saudi’s Arabia is a perfect home for a Palestinian diaspora. No country sucks worse than Saudi’s Arabia. 

[Roman Alymov]

4 minutes ago, Strannik said:

Them 155mm shells

I think 155mm shells is not what Israel is in need of now when dealing with few hundreds of trained Palestinians and crowds of Pal teenagers. But, ironically, Israel have recently provided massive military support to AZ in their recent efforts against AM, causing ethnic clensing of this encient Christian nation (and a lot of brutality unavoidable when "Turks" come to Armenians). So one with religeous view on life could see it as "instant carma" (if this Hindu term aplicable for this Avrahamic region events).

[sunday]

1 minute ago, Roman Alymov said:

So one with religeous view on life could see it as "instant carma" (if this Hindu term aplicable for this Avrahamic region events).

Too soon to say.

[Roman Alymov]

1 minute ago, sunday said:

Too soon to say.

For many Israelis who were killed today it is too late.

[Roman Alymov]

HAMAS fiting ATGM on what looks to be truck on highway https://t.me/boris_rozhin/99769

[Strannik]

8 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

I think 155mm shells is not what Israel is in need of now when dealing with few hundreds of trained Palestinians and crowds of Pal teenagers. But, ironically, Israel have recently provided massive military support to AZ in their recent efforts against AM, causing ethnic clensing of this encient Christian nation (and a lot of brutality unavoidable when "Turks" come to Armenians). So one with religeous view on life could see it as "instant carma" (if this Hindu term aplicable for this Avrahamic region events).

They are about to engage in the biggest ethnic cleanse of late if we take Bib's words seriously.  Like get out where to exactly?  Egypt won't open it's border.

 "We are going to avenge this black day. We will turn all the places where Hamas is hiding into ruins. Residents of Gaza, get out of there now"

Edited October 7, 2023 by Strannik

[BAMF]

7 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

I think 155mm shells is not what Israel is in need of now when dealing with few hundreds of trained Palestinians and crowds of Pal teenagers. But, ironically, Israel have recently provided massive military support to AZ in their recent efforts against AM, causing ethnic clensing of this encient Christian nation (and a lot of brutality unavoidable when "Turks" come to Armenians). So one with religeous view on life could see it as "instant carma" (if this Hindu term aplicable for this Avrahamic region events).

 

5 minutes ago, sunday said:

Too soon to say.

All religions suck. Especially American evangelical and Radtrad Catholics.

[BAMF]

2 minutes ago, Strannik said:

They are about to engage in the biggest ethnic cleanse of late if we take Bib's words seriously.  Like get out where to exactly?  Egypt won't open it's border.

 "We are going to avenge this black day. We will turn all the places where Hamas is hiding into ruins. Residents of Gaza, get out of there now"

You are not consistent. You are okay with Russian ethnic cleansing in the Ukraine. Deleting Gaza is objectively a positive policy move for Israel. 

[Roman Alymov]

Attack was not an easy ride for HAMAS: at least three white pickups abandoned on this video alone, one of them seems like was ramed by police car https://t.me/milinfolive/107920

[Roman Alymov]

3 minutes ago, BAMF said:

You are not consistent. You are okay with Russian ethnic cleansing in the Ukraine. 

What exactly ethnicity is ethnically clensed in Ukraine?

Edited October 7, 2023 by Roman Alymov

[lucklucky]

5 minutes ago, BAMF said:

 

All religions suck. Especially American evangelical and Radtrad Catholics.

Especially them?  Aren't you forgetting Totalitarian Religions like Marxism, Radical Islamism 

[sunday]

11 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

For many Israelis who were killed today it is too late.

Very much, and I would give my condolences to the next of kin.

On the other hand, there is no such thing as collective guilt, so I guess most of today's dead were quite innocent.

[Mighty_Zuk]

28 minutes ago, Strannik said:

Them 155mm shells

 

 

Israel has a substantial stock of artillery munitions on its own without the WRSA, and they're never really in shortage for the IDF anyway. With every consecutive war it seems the IDF relies on such shells less and less. What the IDF will expend in huge quantities are JDAM-like munitions.

29 minutes ago, crazyinsane105 said:

Let’s say 10,000 Palestinians are killed in the coming days.

How does that change things in the long run? If 2008 couldn’t solve the militant issue (when Israel was just a few kilometers away from the entirety of Hamas leadership), I am unsure what difference more dead Palis will make this time around.

Unless the Israelis want to occupy Gaza permanently, but dear god that would be a terrible decision as well. 
 

Exactly the issue I addressed here. In short, I have no answer, and I don't think anyone does.

 

[sunday]

4 minutes ago, lucklucky said:

Especially them?  Aren't you forgetting Totalitarian Religions like Marxism, Radical Islamism 

It could be unwise to engage with proponents of mass murder/genocide.

Edited October 7, 2023 by sunday

[Roman Alymov]

1 minute ago, lucklucky said:

Especially them?  Aren't you forgetting Totalitarian Religions like Marxism, Radical Islamism 

Marxism is not religeon - it is economic theory. To some degree, useful (as any theory) as it is internally consistent, but this consistency is bought by the price of excluding all non-economic factors from the model. As results, attempts to use Marxism outside of lection hall in real life with all its complexity is leading to trouble (or, at least, the need to twist and turn theory to match reality).  Still, internal consistency is making it attractive.

[crazyinsane105]

25 minutes ago, BAMF said:

10,000 is not enough. In war you have to kill enough to make a difference.  The IDF should raze Gaza and the surviving Palestinians should be relocated to other Arab countries. It sucks to suck and the Palestinians suck. Saudi’s Arabia is a perfect home for a Palestinian diaspora. No country sucks worse than Saudi’s Arabia. 

So ethnic cleansing is the answer? 

Because if so, you’re in for a surprise on what will happen if the IDF even attempted this. Hint: US and EU along with Arab countries will react in a not so great manner.

5 minutes ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

Israel has a substantial stock of artillery munitions on its own without the WRSA, and they're never really in shortage for the IDF anyway. With every consecutive war it seems the IDF relies on such shells less and less. What the IDF will expend in huge quantities are JDAM-like munitions.

Exactly the issue I addressed here. In short, I have no answer, and I don't think anyone does.

 

Sadly enough this is the only answer, in that there is no answer to this. 
 

Maybe Russian style minefields and trenches can halt something like this in the future, but that would require significant expansion of the current security zone and push out a lot of Israelis from their current homes.

[Roman Alymov]

5 minutes ago, crazyinsane105 said:

Maybe Russian style minefields and trenches can halt something like this in the future, but that would require significant expansion of the current security zone and push out a lot of Israelis from their current homes.

Since when it is "Russian style"? One of our Kubinka team members served his conscription term as TG on static position somewhere on Golan hights hilltop (after being kicked out of TC school for joling with security officer - something he, as Russian Jew, was unable to resist temptation to do, but it is another story). Anyway, according to him (and his father who have repeatedly visited his position) it was all surrounded by minefields, with only one access road.

  More likely, Gaza border was not guarded in a way Syria border is, as Gaza Arabs do not have army.

[lucklucky]

Just now, Roman Alymov said:

Marxism is not religeon - it is economic theory. To some degree, useful (as any theory) as it is internally consistent, but this consistency is bought by the price of excluding all non-economic factors from the model. As results, attempts to use Marxism outside of lection hall in real life with all its complexity is leading to trouble (or, at least, the need to twist and turn theory to match reality).  Still, internal consistency is making it attractive.

It is a Religion placebo because it is messianic and trusts the State with God like powers. A Paradise also exists at end of it.

I disagree when you say non economic factors are not present in Marxism. They are including for final result.

Just now, Roman Alymov said:

More likely, Gaza border was not guarded in a way Syria border is, as Gaza Arabs do not have army.

Yes, probably due to military bias.

 

[Mighty_Zuk]

14 minutes ago, crazyinsane105 said:

Maybe Russian style minefields and trenches can halt something like this in the future, but that would require significant expansion of the current security zone and push out a lot of Israelis from their current homes.

I assume it'd go the other way around. Israel might expand the current security zone into Gaza to lay minefields.

[Roman Alymov]

3 minutes ago, lucklucky said:

It is a Religion placebo because it is messianic and trusts the State with God like powers. A Paradise also exists at end of it.

I disagree when you say non economic factors are not present in Marxism. They are including for final result.

As far as i remember, final aim of Marxism is creation state-less society (as state is considered as mechanism of ruling class control, so no class - no state). But, i think, here is not the right place to debate Marxism and i am hardly expert in it anyway (luckily, mandatory univercity course of "scientific marxism" wqas dropped before i reached univercity age).

[lucklucky]

Agreed Roman for another time.