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Iron Swords vs. Al-Aqsa Deluge - Israel/Palestinians (again)


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17 minutes ago, lucklucky said:

It took 14 hours for Israel to stop electrical energy to Gaza. The incompetence is staggering.

Unsure how stopping electricity will impact Palestinians though. If anything they have learned to live without it for long periods of time past two decades. 

 

13 minutes ago, lucklucky said:

Touche.  Actually for Israel is even worse, they have drones of that kind almost from 10 years go. And imagination could have made them even ealier.

The problem is that military culture specially the high echelons like high end stuff only. 

It’s going to be very messy once Israel launches a ground incursion into Gaza and is met by waves of drones carrying tandem RPG warheads. Trophy is more or less useless in this environment. 

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32 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

One claim is there was so many rockets, they saturated  the system. Another is some units were not mobilized because it was a surprise attack they were not expecting.

Well, yes. That's the thing with surprise attacks. One might not expect it.

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42 minutes ago, lucklucky said:

Maybe quantity?  it is also possible they were targeted .

 

Yes, I wonder if Hamas has tried to target the systems themselves - they are pretty much fixed as I understand, and perhaps could be easily attacked by a slow-moving, low-flying quadcopter if it came to that. However no such footage has been released, I'm sure Hamas would flaunt it out immediately if they had such success.

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My take on the whole situation:

But first, a primer - Israel elected a new government in November 2022. It is composed of many extremists and overall performs poorly. It vowed to cancel Israel's checks and balances, risking turning it into a dictatorship. The PM, Netanyahu, vowed to get his kingdom at any cost, down to the last Israeli.

Let's proceed...

  1. Israel's current government has been preparing the ground for this situation for months. It started with dismantling democracy to which many reservists, who de-facto hold the IDF together, responded by refusing to show up for reserve duties. Many Israeli pilots have also refused to train, enabled by their unique status as "volunteers", in turn leaving them unfit for many of the IAF's complex activities. The protest did not skip the conscripts whose influence was far more transparent, as many requested to be in non-combat roles, or were just deeply demoralized. Within weeks of the initiation of the protest movement, the IDF declared a lowered combat readiness across the board, although in many parts of it - it was immediate.

     
  2. Israel's current government also likes to abuse many of its powers including the IDF's activities. Many Israelis complained that the IDF over-extends itselfs and risks troops by sending soldiers to guard ultra orthodox Jews who like provoking Palestinians (in Judea and Samaria). Since the IDF draws from its combat brigades to do this policing, it necessarily means this manpower is drawn from somewhere. This situation has been ongoing for many decades, but the guard duties for provocateurs who by Israeli law are actually doing criminal activity, have ramped up significantly recently. Only yesterday someone posted a video showing a member of Knesset along with ultra orthodox Jews celebrating Simchat Tora in Huwara - a Palestinian city that has become a flashpoint in the last several months.

    https://x.com/yanivkub/status/1710038162796429783?s=20
     
  3. It is also apparent that the phenomenon has gone too far and IDF troops from Gaza have indeed been drawn to reinforce in the Judea and Samaria region. 
    https://x.com/BenCaspit/status/1710645456068374719?s=20
     
  4. Regarding intelligence - Israel, like many others, collects intelligence via many means. Sometimes technological like tapping a communication line, sometimes OSINT, sometimes visual, human, etc etc. Naturally whatever is gathered is one piece of a puzzle as Hamas, as well as other regional actors, have many different activities relating to combat movements, weapons development, internal organization, training activities etc etc. A lot is left blank, and it's the job of analysts to fill these blanks. This can sometimes mean the presented intelligence varies significantly from mild to significant threats - for the same topic. 
    Considering how much Hamas invests in adapting and thwarting Israeli intelligence, combined with an event that occurred in 2019 (exposure of an Israeli cell) and dealt a significant blow to Israeli intelligence in Gaza, it is only natural that Hamas manages to surprise Israel, even far more frequently than many realize.
    But the Israeli deployment on its borders is meant to account even for events of surprises such as today. Have enough critical mass that both surveys and acts, to eliminate such hazards. But this obviously does not work if there is no such mass in the first place (see points #2 and #3). 
    Hamas also has its own intelligence apparatus and they are capable of providing detailed information on Israeli manpower status on the Gaza border. 
     
  5. Future surprises like this will occur, just not with such severity. The Israeli intelligence corps, for example, does believe that in the event of a Hezbollah incursion (Radwan force) into Israel (approx 5000 personnel), Israel WILL be surprised. I repeat. They believe Hezbollah will manage to catch Israel off guard! But they are preparing various solutions for that problem, on which I cannot elaborate.
Edited by Mighty_Zuk
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9 minutes ago, Yama said:

Well, yes. That's the thing with surprise attacks. One might not expect it.

Sure, but why not have manned 24/7 a system designed against surprise attacks?

I know it's a religious holiday and all, but it does seem contrary to everything  they learned in 1973.

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46 minutes ago, lucklucky said:

Warning: Civilian bodies

That's pretty terrible even by our currently desensitized standards, and obviously the shooters would have been deliberately targeting civilians, clearly not the case of 'getting caught in crossfire' or 'misidentification' etc.

Unclear if massacre of civilians was one of the goals of operation, or just a side effect of undisciplined armed people getting loose, scale of the killings seems to point to former.

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You know, I've long been in sympathy  with  more Palestinian autonomy, but if I ever read or hear another comment by a Palestinian politician saying they have the right to defend themselves, then I reserve the right to projectile vomit.

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38 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

The same is said by pro-Russians who watch Israel SOF/SWAT walking into battle in dense groups, ideat target for drones....

  By the way have anybody allready blamed Russia for this attack? Today is Putin's 71st birthday....

That's what US SF's do as well. Bad warefare doctrine based on SWAT tactics doesn't work in real life combat.

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10 minutes ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

My take on the whole situation:

But first, a primer - Israel elected a new government in November 2022. It is composed of many extremists and overall performs poorly. It vowed to cancel Israel's checks and balances, risking turning it into a dictatorship. The PM, Netanyahu, vowed to get his kingdom at any cost, down to the last Israeli.

Let's proceed...

  1. Israel's current government has been preparing the ground for this situation for months. It started with dismantling democracy to which many reservists, who de-facto hold the IDF together, responded by refusing to show up for reserve duties. Many Israeli pilots have also refused to train, enabled by their unique status as "volunteers", in turn leaving them unfit for many of the IAF's complex activities. The protest did not skip the conscripts whose influence was far more transparent, as many requested to be in non-combat roles, or were just deeply demoralized. Within weeks of the initiation of the protest movement, the IDF declared a lowered combat readiness across the board, although in many parts of it - it was immediate.

     
  2. Israel's current government also likes to abuse many of its powers including the IDF's activities. Many Israelis complained that the IDF over-extends itselfs and risks troops by sending soldiers to guard ultra orthodox Jews who like provoking Palestinians (in Judea and Samaria). Since the IDF draws from its combat brigades to do this policing, it necessarily means this manpower is drawn from somewhere. This situation has been ongoing for many decades, but the guard duties for provocateurs who by Israeli law are actually doing criminal activity, have ramped up significantly recently. Only yesterday someone posted a video showing a member of Knesset along with ultra orthodox Jews celebrating Simchat Tora in Huwara - a Palestinian city that has become a flashpoint in the last several months.

    https://x.com/yanivkub/status/1710038162796429783?s=20
     
  3. It is also apparent that the phenomenon has gone too far and IDF troops from Gaza have indeed been drawn to reinforce in the Judea and Samaria region. 
    https://x.com/BenCaspit/status/1710645456068374719?s=20
     
  4. Regarding intelligence - Israel, like many others, collects intelligence via many means. Sometimes technological like tapping a communication line, sometimes OSINT, sometimes visual, human, etc etc. Naturally whatever is gathered is one piece of a puzzle as Hamas, as well as other regional actors, have many different activities relating to combat movements, weapons development, internal organization, training activities etc etc. A lot is left blank, and it's the job of analysts to fill these blanks. This can sometimes mean the presented intelligence varies significantly from mild to significant threats - for the same topic. 
    Considering how much Hamas invests in adapting and thwarting Israeli intelligence, combined with an event that occurred in 2019 (exposure of an Israeli cell) and dealt a significant blow to Israeli intelligence in Gaza, it is only natural that Hamas manages to surprise Israel, even far more frequently than many realize.
    But the Israeli deployment on its borders is meant to account even for events of surprises such as today. Have enough critical mass that both surveys and acts, to eliminate such hazards. But this obviously does not work if there is no such mass in the first place (see points #2 and #3). 
    Hamas also has its own intelligence apparatus and they are capable of providing detailed information on Israeli manpower status on the Gaza border. 
     
  5. Future surprises like this will occur, just not with such severity. The Israeli intelligence corps, for example, does believe that in the event of a Hezbollah incursion (Radwan force) into Israel (approx 5000 personnel), Israel WILL be surprised. I repeat. They believe Hezbollah will manage to catch Israel off guard! But they are preparing various solutions for that problem, on which I cannot elaborate.

Appreciate the insights, very helpful indeed. 
 

Maybe it’s a good thing one of Israel’s biggest enemies, Syria, has been in such a mess for the 13 years that Golan Heights isn’t in much danger 

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12 minutes ago, Yama said:

Yes, I wonder if Hamas has tried to target the systems themselves - they are pretty much fixed as I understand, and perhaps could be easily attacked by a slow-moving, low-flying quadcopter if it came to that. However no such footage has been released, I'm sure Hamas would flaunt it out immediately if they had such success.

Palestine's rockets not being intercepted by Iron Dome...

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-middle-east-67037806

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6 minutes ago, sunday said:

So the feelings-driven propaganda war began...

Code Speak for IDGAS? How very sophisticated.

The Israelis will go in, there is no need for propaganda. Equally it does no harm to remember these are real people, and not shades on a screen.

Edited by Stuart Galbraith
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Judging from the videos, the Palestinian militants (those who are in military gear, not the sandal wearing folks who joined in after) seem to be moving and shooting in a pretty well coordinated manner. They also aren’t bunching up in large groups and staying in one place indefinitely, instead using motorbikes and vehicles to quickly disperse. Seems like a number have been tasked with speedy assaults, hit and run, while others will bunker down in captured areas and fight. 
 

I expect the Israelis to take back these territories within the upcoming days. What they’ll find will be stomach grueling to say the least. Biggest question is how they’ll manage an invasion of Gaza

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15 minutes ago, lucklucky said:

Is it not true?

I do not know, but propaganda is not always about lying.

Edited to add:

Were that guy a bit more against killing babies...

Edited by sunday
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https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1710715635347357781/mediaViewer?currentTweet=1710715635347357781&currentTweetUser=WarMonitors&mode=profile
 

Warning: shows some dead soldiers 

Militants ambush an armored vehicle and manage to disable it. Also, what looks to be 4 female IDF soldiers handcuffed and against the wall. 

Saw another video (which I won’t post) of an entire military barracks overrun and soldiers in their sleeping clothing killed. 

Complete clusterf*ck by the Israelis in terms of preparation or reaction. The fact that several hundred Palestinians can, in this day and age, traverse across open fields and storm entire bases is surprising to say the least. 

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13 minutes ago, sunday said:

I do not know, but propaganda is not always about lying.

Edited to add:

Were that guy a bit more against killing babies...

What does that have got to do with the subject? Are you even incapable of discerning what the idiot is saying in last paragraph?

Your country and mine are also favourable to killing babies because they are an inconvenience so even worse on account than above and  Judaism is no monolith religion or culture there are many Jews against abortion. There are also atheists against abortion.

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3 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Sure, but why not have manned 24/7 a system designed against surprise attacks?

That's kinda the point, if you think surprise attack is a possibility, then it's a certainty...

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