Iron Swords vs. Al-Aqsa Deluge - Israel/Palestinians (again)

[futon]

The Glory Narrative Party on the prowl again. 

Edited November 21, 2023 by futon

[Dark_Falcon]

4 minutes ago, crazyinsane105 said:

Kinda surprised they care about this issue taking place thousands of miles away

There were a number of nasty (but not significantly violent) and objectively pro-Hamas protests in Brisbane, apparently.  This was in reaction to those.  The presence of Muslim immigrants in such protests in Australia and new Zealand has also alarmed many people and a Haka is a way to reply forcefully without seeming to be bigoted.

[futon]

On 11/20/2023 at 2:35 AM, txtree99 said:

https://www-nbcnews-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna125883?amp_js_v=0.1#webview=1&cap=swipe

 

Militants believed to be Houthi rebels use helicopter to seize Japanese tanker in Red Sea

JERUSALEM — A ship operated by Nippon Yusen Kaisha, better known as NYK Line, has been seized by Houthi rebels in the Red Sea off Yemen, the Israeli Prime Minister’s Office said Sunday.

The Bahamian-flagged cargo vessel is a pure car and truck carrier called Galaxy Leader, owned by a British company. NYK said the ship had no cargo and was heading to India from Europe. There were 25 crew members on board, and NYK is looking into their condition.

“We strongly condemn the act,” Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno said Monday in Tokyo during a press conference, adding that there were no Japanese crew members on board.

The Houthis, an Iran-backed rebel group in Yemen, have sporadically attacked Israel with missiles and drones since the start of fighting between Israel and the Islamist group Hamas, also backed by Iran.

Matsuno told reporters that Japan has demanded the Houthis to release the vessel and its crew, and has been working on the issue with Iran, Oman, Saudi Arabia among other countries in the Middle East.

...

https://japannews.yomiuri.co.jp/society/general-news/20231120-150748/

[Dark_Falcon]

Deleted.

Edited November 21, 2023 by Dark_Falcon

[futon]

On the 45th anti-piracy patrol, JS Ikazuchi is in the region. Although patrol zone is the Gulf of Aden. 

[crazyinsane105]

 

 

[crazyinsane105]

48 minutes ago, futon said:

On the 45th anti-piracy patrol, JS Ikazuchi is in the region. Although patrol zone is the Gulf of Aden. 

I think this is the first case of pirates using a helicopter though. It’s unlikely that any anti piracy patrol would fire upon what is a military helicopter approaching a cargo ship anyways. 

[crazyinsane105]

7 hours ago, rmgill said:

The ship is empty and running light. You can see that by both the footage and the draft. 

Seems like Light AA will become an added fitment for merchant vessels. 

Firing upon military helicopters is not a smart idea. This is the first time a stateless group used this technique to board a ship. Most other times, helicopters are used by actual militaries, and firing upon them thinking they are pirates would be a terrible, terrible idea. 

[futon]

1 hour ago, crazyinsane105 said:

I think this is the first case of pirates using a helicopter though. It’s unlikely that any anti piracy patrol would fire upon what is a military helicopter approaching a cargo ship anyways. 

Well, I said that simply as saying what the circumstances are. It's just part of the whole picture which is interesting to think about. I'm not expecting any sort of dispatch of Ikazuchi to take action towards the captured neither, but only that I'd imagine JSDF personnel over there must feel more directly alerted. And then, they surely would visualize what would they do had it indeed happened in the Gulf of Arden. Would their patrol route be sufficient to catch it. Would the Japanese government rather find it thst it would have been better to not have a JMSDF in the area at all? Questions emerge about possible scenerios. Similar questions perhaps since a Japanese tanker was hit in the Persian Gulf. Might Japan want to add part of the Red Sea to the patrol route now? 

In that case though, of an approaching helicopter, would it really be that had to prevent? If an unknown boat was approaching, warning shots is a step. Why no warning shots for an unscheduled approaching helicopter with unknown intentions? A small burst from the Phalanx should scare it off. One other option could be to send the SH-60J/K with a squad to help defend in the case of a boarding attempt.

 

[crazyinsane105]

1 minute ago, futon said:

Well, I said that simply as saying what the circumstances are. It's just part of the whole picture which is interesting to think about. I'm not expecting any sort of dispatch of Ikazuchi to take action towards the captured neither, but only that I'd imagine JSDF personnel over there must feel more directly alerted. And then, they surely would visualize what would they do had it indeed happened in the Gulf of Arden. Would their patrol route be sufficient to catch it. Would the Japanese government rather find it thst it would have been better to not have a JMSDF in the area at all? Questions emerge about possible scenerios. Similar questions perhaps since a Japanese tanker was hit in the Persian Gulf. Might Japan want to add part of the Red Sea to the patrol route now? 

In that case though, of an approaching helicopter, would it really be that had to prevent? If an unknown boat was approaching, warning shots is a step. Why no warning shots for an unscheduled approaching helicopter with unknown intentions? A small burst from the Phalanx should scare it off. One other option could be to send the SH-60J/K with a squad to help defend in the case of a boarding attempt.

 

I believe helicopters flying around in this area is quite common, and one coming within a certain distance to a ship isn't completely out of the ordinary. I can definitely see an accidental shootdown being a big issue, and not something most merchant companies will risk. May just be better to get their ship hijacked and have the insurance pay out the claim versus shooting down a helicopter that belonged to some Gulf country. 

[futon]

9 minutes ago, crazyinsane105 said:

I believe helicopters flying around in this area is quite common, and one coming within a certain distance to a ship isn't completely out of the ordinary. I can definitely see an accidental shootdown being a big issue, and not something most merchant companies will risk. May just be better to get their ship hijacked and have the insurance pay out the claim versus shooting down a helicopter that belonged to some Gulf country. 

But intentions are unknown, can't just assume a safe capture for usual negotiations to sort out.   

[Nobu]

200 years after Decatur at Tripoli, the debate between tribute and war continues.

[Nobu]

12 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

But what does this tell us, other than politicians  are stupid? Not much. The Arabs have stupid, short termist politicians too, look at Arafat. Anyone that thinks ahead, ie like Sadat, gets deposed, ventilated, or probably both.

Personally I think it's a bore bashing the Israelis with 'you set up Hamas!' It hardly justifies what happened on October 7th, and I get the impression far too many on this forum want to do just that. Innocent people died. So Bibi is a fucking idiot, it's hardly front page news.

Not only do the people of the region on all sides seem to not favor peace and reconciliation with anyone, they have a tendency to assassinate their own politicians who advocate it, and might not know what to do with it if they had it.

An Arab Gandhi reincarnate, born in Gaza, would probably be killed by his own people for it.

[Perun]

43 minutes ago, crazyinsane105 said:

Firing upon military helicopters is not a smart idea. This is the first time a stateless group used this technique to board a ship. Most other times, helicopters are used by actual militaries, and firing upon them thinking they are pirates would be a terrible, terrible idea. 

How are they stateless? They have their state, (North) Yemen

[crazyinsane105]

35 minutes ago, Perun said:

How are they stateless? They have their state, (North) Yemen

Ahh good point. I don't have the most intricate knowledge on the Houthis

[crazyinsane105]

 

This seems to be some very serious damage Hezbullah inflicted in a recent attack. Honestly surprised nobody seemed to have been killed or badly injured in this

Update: Well, IDF is claiming they intercepted the attack and rest of the ordinance fell on open fields. That video doesn't really support that claim...unless the video is of footage from somewhere else.

Edited November 21, 2023 by crazyinsane105

[Strannik]

35 minutes ago, crazyinsane105 said:

Ahh good point. I don't have the most intricate knowledge on the Houthis

They are a party in a civil war that is currently on hold, have a half of the country under their control, effectively govern  it, and have declared a war on Israel.  So, hardly can be called pirates.

Edited November 21, 2023 by Strannik

[crazyinsane105]

5 minutes ago, Strannik said:

They are a party in a civil war that us currently on hold, have a half of the country under their control, effectively govern  it, and have declared a war on Israel.  So, hardly can be called pirates.

The ongoing war in Yemen was a case of stupidity between Egypt and Saudi Arabia (along with Pakistan which sided with the Saudis in the 60s...the Saudis were just too damn incapable of fighting the war themselves, and overall still are against Yemen without significant US support). It later entangled the likes of UAE and Qatar a few years ago. 

From what I know, the Israelis have very little to do with what happened in Yemen back in the 50s thru 60s (except they took advantage of Egyptian distraction in Yemen to launch the 6 day war). Even afterwards, there never seemed to be direct military action by Israel on either North or South Yemen. 

 

[Mighty_Zuk]

2 hours ago, crazyinsane105 said:

This seems to be some very serious damage Hezbullah inflicted in a recent attack. Honestly surprised nobody seemed to have been killed or badly injured in this

Update: Well, IDF is claiming they intercepted the attack and rest of the ordinance fell on open fields. That video doesn't really support that claim...unless the video is of footage from somewhere else.

You're mixing two events.

And this SEEMS like serious damage, but isn't. The Biranit base is an underground bunker structure and has some external buildings that have long been defunct. A few years ago I was in charge of removing the last pieces of old equipment from there. 

There are structures there for garbage collection, non-essentials storage, and IIRC a canteen.

[seahawk]

7 hours ago, crazyinsane105 said:

I dunno, hostages were Turkish from what I've read. Maybe they'll be exchanged for hand made Turkish rugs.

The ship owner will surely pay good money to have it returned.

[Stuart Galbraith]

4 hours ago, Nobu said:

Not only do the people of the region on all sides seem to not favor peace and reconciliation with anyone, they have a tendency to assassinate their own politicians who advocate it, and might not know what to do with it if they had it.

An Arab Gandhi reincarnate, born in Gaza, would probably be killed by his own people for it.

And its true, both sides of the cultural divide. Im not being judgemental or anything, but look what happened to Jesus...

I daresay the majority of people in the region want peace, its just the politicians that dont, and we see the consequences of that.

[Stuart Galbraith]

1 hour ago, seahawk said:

The ship owner will surely pay good money to have it returned.

If he doesnt, there is a Commando support vessel just 2 or 3 days sailing away.

[Mighty_Zuk]

Destroying a Conception

"Conception" is perhaps the most common word in Israeli news and the mouths of Israeli military and policy experts on TV.
For as long as any Israeli remembers Hamas's violent takeover of Gaza in 2007, Israeli political and military leadership shared what is known as the "conception".
Before we answer what is this new conception, let's look at its older variant, because it's not the first time the word conception gains such prominence in Israel's public mindset.
What the old conception (1971) was:

1. Egypt will not attack Israel until it gathers sufficient air power to neutralize Israel's air force and attack deep in Israel.
2. Syria will not attack Israel unless in coordination and simultaneously with Egypt.

From this conception, one could derive point #3 which asserts that Syria is no longer a threat either. Although Syria did indeed attack near simultaneously with Egypt, it happened while Israel did not consider either to be an imminent threat, and Israeli border presence was woefully inadequate.

The current form of "conception" is different in many ways, but it relies on the same principle by which Israel may be surprised by its enemies, but Israel's clear military superiority severely limits the extent of "surprise" or damage to Israel. It acts as a form of strategic depth in its own way. A similar idea persists in Europe for example, although it is much more acute - Europeans only perceive their armed forces to be superior to potential enemies', while Israel at least does have a de facto military superiority over its enemies.

The current conception relies on the following pillars:

• Transformation of Israel's enemies from states backed by superpowers to localized terrorist organizations has removed the "existential" aspect of the threat to Israel.
• Israel does not want to rule over Palestinians.
• Terrorism problem in Palestine is too complex to solve alone, and is therefore to be managed, not fixed.
• Terrorism can be managed by "mowing the grass" of their military capabilities instead of thorough dismantling of their structure.
• Terrorism can be managed by appeasement.
• Persistent friction with terrorists is an acceptable alternative to war.
• Carrot and stick approach can deter Palestinians from terrorism and incentivize cooperation with Israel.

What this effectively meant was that Israel would somehow react when provoked, but only in a very limited manner, and Hamas's buildup was left pretty much unchecked. In all previous wars and operations like Protective Edge, Guardian of the Walls, Cast Lead, Cloud Pillar, and minor operations in between, the IDF's response to Hamas's rocket attacks was extremely contained in all aspects.
How the conception manifested vs Hamas:

• Geography - only very limited areas in Gaza were attacked.
• Manpower - tens to hundreds KIA to Hamas and PIJ who collectively have tens of thousands of combat personnel at any given time.
• Assets - rocket launchers, ammo production, tunnels were hit in small numbers. More valuable targets left unscathed.
• Management - Hamas's true leadership both in and out of Gaza was untouched.
• Sponsorship - Hamas's sponsors could support them with no apparent repercussions.

The "conception" is a key source of public criticism toward the government, and to an extent the army. Netanyahu is seen as being too soft on Iran and Hezbollah as well, allowing Hezbollah to amass an arsenal that could pose immense risk to Israel and that would dwarf Hamas's by orders of magnitude, while Iran was allowed to become a nuclear threshold state, passing many milestones considered to be irreversible, particularly in terms of enriched material, short term enrichment capacity, and know-how for the entire chain of weapon production.
In 2022 then Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennet announced the "Octopus Doctrine".

We no longer play with the tentacles, with Iran’s proxies: we’ve created a new equation by going for the head.

With Netanyahu coming to power again in January 2023, this doctrine seems to have been very short lived.
He has ruled Israel since March 2009 continuously with the exception of a short, 18 month period between 2021-2022, and is therefore blamed for this conception.

What this conception means for Netanyahu:

• The region is constantly primed for conflict but kept just below the escalatory threshold.
• Netanyahu can thus claim to restore peace and be strong vs Hamas.
• If opponents come to power he can blame them for any fluctuation that brings escalation and thus war, in turn raising his popularity.
• By the time the threat will grow to enormous proportions, Netanyahu may already retire from political life willingly, letting successors take the fallout and prime the scene for his son's rise.

How Lapid-Bennet temporarily changed the equation:

• Escalatory threshold was reduced drastically. Incendiary balloons that were unanswered by Netanyahu, were then met with airstrikes and tank fire into Gaza, as well as assassinations of commanders.
• PA was internationally delegitimized, planting the roots for its leadership's eventual succession.
• Focus and pressure on Hezbollah heightened with maritime delineation agreement with Lebanon.
• Iran was designated the sponsor of regional terrorism including Hamas and PIJ and strike preparations resumed and peaked.
• Overall military preparadeness set on a new upward trend.

What the elimination of the conception means for Israel's public and future governments:

• Long term policy regarding Gaza, J&S, and Palestinians in general needs to be planned and presented to the public.
• Terrorist groups like Hamas, PIJ, etc, cannot be allowed to persist, even at the cost of war.
• A partner for peace does not exist in Palestine yet, needs to be nurtured as part of long term policy.
• War now is better than deadlier war later.
• Trust in intelligence and security services' work must be restored.
• Existing "War Between Wars" must be expanded across region.
• Qualitative gap between Israel and enemies must be in an upward trend.

Edited November 21, 2023 by Mighty_Zuk

[rmgill]

14 hours ago, futon said:

Here's another common punch-line. Don't let a good opportinity go to waste.

The Palestinians never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity. That's a phrase applied against them in 1970s. History has meaning and purpose. One need only pay close attention to history to note the large, long pattern. 

Making these sorts of observations is easily done あさめしまえ (before breakfast). 

[rmgill]

7 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

I daresay the majority of people in the region want peace, its just the politicians that dont, and we see the consequences of that.

Their form of peace involves no Israel and no jews in the region and to a great degree Sharia. Regardless, saying their people want peace is as relevant as saying the Germans did too while the Wehrmacht and SS were still conducting counter offensives in the Ardennes and sending V1s and V2s against the UK, among other things.