The government shutdown / House Speaker removal

[Josh]

It seems inevitable we go through yet another Freedom Caucus sponsored shutdown. The GOP House could not even get out of the starting gate on its own proposal for an extension. More over, the far right just seems to actively want a shutdown, probably because they assume a bad economy will hurt Biden and that they are invulnerable in their own districts.

 

I give McCarthy a 1 : 10 chance of remaining Speaker. The Dem caucus is united and post impeachment inquiry, has no interest in saving him without a massive concession he will be unwilling, or possibly even unable, to give. I can’t think of anyone the Republicans could agree on for the speaker position either once McCarthy is gone, and I’m not sure where that would leave the House.

 

Barring a small group of Republicans defecting to the Democrats, I don’t see how this gets resolved.

Edited September 20, 2023 by Josh

[Harold Jones]

It will get solved the way it usually does, imperfectly with neither republican side gaining anything from it and the Republicans as a whole losing more ground in battleground states. All the Democrats have to do is stand back and watch.  

[Josh]

1 hour ago, Harold Jones said:

It will get solved the way it usually does, imperfectly with neither republican side gaining anything from it and the Republicans as a whole losing more ground in battleground states. All the Democrats have to do is stand back and watch.  

If there is a vote for removal, the Dems will have to at least decide which side to be on. I think previous to the impeachment inquiry, they would have backed McCarthy as the devil they know. I think now they may be willing to throw him under the bus with the Freedom Caucus and watch the dozens of speaker votes begin.

Edited September 20, 2023 by Josh

[Harold Jones]

Probably, they might actually be able to cut a deal with him to keep the seat in that case, but I suspect they'll see Republican chaos as the better outcome.

[Josh]

1 minute ago, Harold Jones said:

Probably, they might actually be able to cut a deal with him to keep the seat in that case, but I suspect they'll see Republican chaos as the better outcome.

The problem with letting the GOP House spin its wheels is that the government still remains in a shutdown as long as there is no speaker. And I think given Biden's vulnerability, the minority doesn't want that hit to the economy. But if McCarthy can't bring any legislation to a vote in the first place, there may be nothing to lose. A discharge petition is ultimately possible with defecting Republicans, but that will take a lot of time (30 working days after a bill is in a committee?) to even become an option.

In any case, the shutdown seems priced in, barring McCarthy going completely rouge and somehow not being removed. That would take quite a strange agreement between the moderates and dems.

[Josh]

Freedom Caucus blocks DoD funding bill for the second time.

[Skywalkre]

I'm reminded of something David Brooks had to say over this modern dysfunction with our budget.  Given it often comes down to the last second and is often just some continuation of spending levels that came before... this has been going on for so long now you have significant parts of the budget that are pure waste because the work that needs to be done to prune, adjust, eliminate, replace isn't being done.  All of this because both sides refuse to work with each other in a system that only works when compromise happens.  Americans as a whole want compromise and functioning government... but not enough of these Americans show up during primaries where the base treat working across the aisle as negatives.

Edited September 21, 2023 by Skywalkre

[rmgill]

You know, maybe congress should pass an actual honest to god budget? 

[lucklucky]

Seems here,  we have the supporters of this

 

[Josh]

1 hour ago, lucklucky said:

Seems here,  we have the supporters of this

 

I’d be more of a believer in government shutdown brinkmanship if it ever did any good and if it ever occurred when a Republican was in the Whitehouse.

 

The actual track record is that the freedom caucus will swallow any amount of debt with a GOP president, because they are about theatre, not effective governance. They want spending cuts only when the consequences are laid at the feet of democrats. They will happily run up the debt otherwise, just like everyone else.

[Mikel2]

1 hour ago, rmgill said:

You know, maybe congress should pass an actual honest to god budget? 

How about voting on individual items rather than 6000 page monstrosities?

[Josh]

Actually McCarthy is so screwed at this point after the second failed vote that I think the senate passes a clean CR and hands it to the House and McCarthy passes it last minute with the Democrats, who in term protect him from removal and own him for negotiations next month.

Edited September 22, 2023 by Josh

[Steven P Allen]

Shut it down:  there is far less damage when they are locked out than when they are working.

We need to go back to a system that has Congress working about a month per year and then spends the rest of the year in honest work (leaving out law, obviously).  Let the bastards have to live with the consequences of their asinine legislation, and they might be less asinine. 

As for the bureaus, most of them need to go away permanently.

But the voters who want the gov't to Do Something About _______ (fill in the blank) will never let that happen.

[Murph]

Shut it down.  Shut is all down.

[Murph]

David Brooks- HAHAHAHAHAHA!  LOL ROTFLMAO!  As if that loser had ANY credibility.

[DKTanker]

On 9/21/2023 at 6:00 PM, rmgill said:

You know, maybe congress should pass an actual honest to god budget? 

I was just going to say, when it comes to the federal government, anybody that talks about the budget process in these contemporary times, just said they don't know what they're talking about without saying they don't know what they're talking about.

[DKTanker]

13 hours ago, Josh said:

Actually McCarthy is so screwed at this point after the second failed vote that I think the senate passes a clean CR and hands it to the House and McCarthy passes it last minute with the Democrats, who in term protect him from removal and own him for negotiations next month.

All funding and spending bills have to originate in the House.  Even if that means the Senate could takes a house bill, strip out all the language and replaces it with Obamacare, and then send it back to the house for final approval, the spending bill still originated in the House.

[Josh]

44 minutes ago, DKTanker said:

All funding and spending bills have to originate in the House.  Even if that means the Senate could takes a house bill, strip out all the language and replaces it with Obamacare, and then send it back to the house for final approval, the spending bill still originated in the House.

Then I guess we get a shutdown most likely. Although if there’s one thing McCarthy has proven, it’s that he’ll do anything to cling to that gavel. I thought endorsing something from the senate would give political cover but didn’t realize that’s not an option. I’m not sure if he’s willing to caucus with Dems to prevent removal, but I think that’s the only way he stays in charge.

[rmgill]

On 9/22/2023 at 9:02 PM, DKTanker said:

I was just going to say, when it comes to the federal government, anybody that talks about the budget process in these contemporary times, just said they don't know what they're talking about without saying they don't know what they're talking about.

Well considering that the House and Senate basically play fast and lose with the rules, ethics and democratic process, it's hard to know what's actually really happening because of the way they fudge or outright violate the rules. Like as you point out, how the Service Members Home Ownership Tax Act of 2009 was 'adjusted'. 

[Markus Becker]

Is the Freedom Caucus opposed to some specific stuff or the scale of the spending in general? 

[Josh]

45 minutes ago, Markus Becker said:

Is the Freedom Caucus opposed to some specific stuff or the scale of the spending in general? 

Spending in general, though it tends prioritize defense. It is worth noting that in this case it is a little misleading to say the Freedom Caucus is shutting down the government, since their membership is thought to be >40 (there is no public list). It seems their most MAGA extremist bomb throwers are operating outside the group's sanction. But the small group of obstructionists are thought to all be Caucus members and this is a strategy they have used repeatedly before, so the blame is laid on their feet in the media despite likely not being completely accurate. They are sufficiently opaque in their membership and operations I consider it a distinction without a difference; its not like they are coming out and condemning their own members on the issue.

[Josh]

GOP came back with a 45 day CR deal that apparently is "clean" except for aid to Ukraine being cut. Dems passed it with GOP moderates.

Looks like the ball is in Gaetz court; he either has to put or shut up.

In other news, Reagan is spinning in his grave.

Edited September 30, 2023 by Josh

[Josh]

McCarthy right now:
 

[Markus Becker]

21 hours ago, Josh said:

GOP came back with a 45 day CR deal that apparently is "clean" except for aid to Ukraine being cut. Dems passed it with GOP moderates.

Looks like the ball is in Gaetz court; he either has to put or shut up.

In other news, Reagan is spinning in his grave.

Military aid for Ukraine are subsidies for the US defense industry. What's their problem with that? Oh, Hunter's business connections in Ukraine or aren't they just not getting something this simple? 

[rmgill]

US funding is far more than just spending for more 155mm shells, MLRS rockets and small arms ammo.