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What does the tank market look like after the Russian-Ukrainian war?


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5 hours ago, lucklucky said:

Depends what kills tanks in Ukraine vs Yugoslavia. I would speculate that at least ATGW destructive capabilities increased and artillery might be more precise.

Precision of unguided artillery should not matter much, as increased accuracy is mostly going to lead to more damaging proximal hits, not more direct hits, which are rare even when accuracy is superb.

The exception here is PGM muniitons, which should have  much higher rate of catastrophic damage, as direct hits do become likely.

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The Russian side alone lost more than 2,000 tanks, an astonishing number. It is no exaggeration to say that they will be focusing on rebuilding their arsenal for some time. This may temporarily limit its ability to export tanks. Additionally, uncertainty over international sanctions may limit options for purchasing tanks from other countries.

Regarding Ukraine, you are right. Keeping the remaining tanks could be a strategic move. This can not only ensure the country's national defense, but also maintain a sense of regional stability.

Now, the idea of Japan exporting the Type 95 tank is very interesting! This would be a significant change in the two countries' historical stance on arms exports, but dynamics in the tank market may force both countries to reconsider. As for China, its influence in the arms market is steadily expanding and it is well positioned to fill the gaps left by other countries.

Tank production is certainly possible in countries that have previously shelved domestic tank projects. Economic factors and regional security concerns may lead some countries to return to tank development and production, which could lead to significant changes in the global market.

German tank factories in Ukraine are an interesting development. If they decide to prioritize exports, this could help alleviate some potential shortages, but this will also depend on their contracts and international agreements as well as the risk of Russia attacking the factories to demotivate the cause.
I've heard rumors that Pakistan is also ramping up it's arms and tanks production to join in on the race for pitching in the Al-Khalid tanks, plus a little push from IMF on the Pakistani government. 

After all, the global tank market is likely to go through a period of adjustment and uncertainty. We will see changes in tank production and export dynamics as countries reorganize and reassess their needs. These are exciting times for tank enthusiasts and weapons enthusiasts who want to follow these geopolitical and technological changes. Which countries do you think might step in to fill this gap?

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Those that have already been mentioned.

Maybe Turkey can gain some grounds, or Pakistan, but there aren't that many companies in the world with a lot of experience in MBT production. These are in Russia, South Korea, the USA, China, Germany, France, and to a lesser degree, Poland. German factories can also be found also in Greece, Australia, maybe Ukraine one day. I don't see Italy exporting Ariete, or India exporting Arjun. GDLS has factories in Spain, Britain, Canada, but ultimately these would be "US exports". BAE has Hägglunds in Sweden, but I don't see them expanding into the MBT market.

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On 9/21/2023 at 1:15 AM, sunday said:

@Damian is the guy to ask here.

Apparently K2 has superb fire direction with lots of advanced features.

Electronics, fire control system, optics, suspension, and some other things. Nobody is disilusioned about protection, front armor is ok, but side armor is indeed a problem that is meant to be rectified with K2PL variant. However M1A1 and M1A2 are seen as most survivable and safe for crew. Tank crews I talked with are eagerly awaiting M1A2SEPv3's arrival.

 

There are some rumors we might procure more M1's tough.

Edited by Damian
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10 minutes ago, Damian said:

Electronics, fire control system, optics, suspension, and some other things. Nobody is disilusioned about protection, front armor is ok, but side armor is indeed a problem that is meant to be rectified with K2PL variant. However M1A1 and M1A2 are seen as most survivable and safe for crew. Tank crews I talked with are eagerly awaiting M1A2SEPv3's arrival.

There are some rumors we might procure more M1's tough.

What about the ammunition storage? IIRC you mentioned the Polish MoD requested certain changes to be applied.

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45 minutes ago, alejandro_ said:

What about the ammunition storage? IIRC you mentioned the Polish MoD requested certain changes to be applied.

It seems that this plan was abandoned (reasons are time and also probably money), and there won't be any significant changes to the hull and turret core structure. Which is a pity. Tank crews I talked with, would really like to have all tanks with fully isolated ammo storage.

This is why there are rumors that more M1's might be procured, but we will see.

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On 9/20/2023 at 7:52 PM, Mighty_Zuk said:

Those are Merkava 4, not 5, and Israel is a tank producing country with an annual production rate of 30 units. It also produces the Namer at an identical rate, and soon the Eitan as well at a higher rate.

All are new builds. Israel doesn't upgrade old tanks unless there's an urgent need. Rather, it cycles them into reserve units and from there it retired them. A tank in Israel lives about 30 years from the moment it's produced until retirement.

 

no, I am referring to the 5 that was recently unveiled.

again, not sure if they are modified from existing Merkavas, or are new builds.

Similar to how the Challenger 3 uses the Challenger 2 chassis and only the turret is new.

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2 hours ago, Helmutkohl said:

no, I am referring to the 5 that was recently unveiled.

again, not sure if they are modified from existing Merkavas, or are new builds.

Similar to how the Challenger 3 uses the Challenger 2 chassis and only the turret is new.

I know what you're referring to but there is no such thing as a Merkava 5.

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6 minutes ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

I know what you're referring to but there is no such thing as a Merkava 5.

so what do you call it then?

the media is referring it to as the Merkava Mark 5 Barak.

In any case whatever you call it, what I want to know is if they are new builds or upgrades to the 4.

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On 9/23/2023 at 12:55 AM, Damian said:

Electronics, fire control system, optics, suspension, and some other things. Nobody is disilusioned about protection, front armor is ok, but side armor is indeed a problem that is meant to be rectified with K2PL variant. However M1A1 and M1A2 are seen as most survivable and safe for crew. Tank crews I talked with are eagerly awaiting M1A2SEPv3's arrival.

 

There are some rumors we might procure more M1's tough.

has the PL variant been fixed yet?

because it seems like every half year, Hyundai shows off a new model or mock up that looks totally different

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There waa a rumor that the Philippines was going to get some Type 74s.

https://www.rappler.com/newsbreak/fact-check/japan-did-not-give-type-74-battle-tanks-philippines/

 

There was a recent light-reading article speculating how well Type 74s would do if hypothetically provided to Ukraine. Basically, could be useful.

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/e262d075ed3d1a169b35862daf2e0ce0610f209c

 

The last Type 74s in service will be withdrawn by March 2024. So by that point, its just the 380 or so Type 90s and around 120 Type 10s. Although while tank numbers go down, reconnaissance vehicle firepower goes up with Type 16s. 

 

 

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1 hour ago, futon said:

There waa a rumor that the Philippines was going to get some Type 74s.

https://www.rappler.com/newsbreak/fact-check/japan-did-not-give-type-74-battle-tanks-philippines/

 

There was a recent light-reading article speculating how well Type 74s would do if hypothetically provided to Ukraine. Basically, could be useful.

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/e262d075ed3d1a169b35862daf2e0ce0610f209c

 

The last Type 74s in service will be withdrawn by March 2024. So by that point, its just the 380 or so Type 90s and around 120 Type 10s. Although while tank numbers go down, reconnaissance vehicle firepower goes up with Type 16s. 

 

 

Type 74s after purchasing those pudgy-looking Sabrahs from Elbit? Naaaah.

<ot>That said, I'm still surprised the Philippines have money left in the bank for military acquisitions, with Marcos making all those trips abroad with his entire entourage (it's not for fundraising, more like pure expenditure) and the rest of the government just pillaging whatever they can and creating artificial scarcity in markets like vegetables and all that, to drive up prices and line up their pockets. If it's not onions, it's sugar; if it's not sugar, it's rice or fuel...take your pick. At this rate, the son will end up just like his father (Duterte is already on the run, btw, possibly hiding with his sugar daddies in China).</ot>

Still fatty.

Edited by Renegade334
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6 hours ago, Helmutkohl said:

so what do you call it then?

the media is referring it to as the Merkava Mark 5 Barak.

In any case whatever you call it, what I want to know is if they are new builds or upgrades to the 4.

I call it Merkava 4 Barak. The media doesn't matter as long as it keeps calling howitzers "tanks". Media also called the Leopard 2A4 with new armor the Leopard 3. Doesn't make it any less true.

The IDF clearly refers to it as a Merkava 4. And with that said, I repeat what I said earlier - Yes, the IDF keeps producing and upgrading the Merkava 4. It produces 30 annually per official statements, and typically it replaces old models with new builds rather than upgrade old tanks to new standards.

The Merkava 4 is also likely to remain in production until the early 2030's.

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The Ukraine War looks to drag on for a couple more years at least. What the tank market looks like after that is anyone's guess. But the duration of the war will allow tank makers to ramp up production of the latest of Leo 2s, M1s, etc. Countries who have donated tanks to Ukraine will be looking to re-arm with newer stuff and they could look to these tank manufacturers. The Koreans, French and Chinese are in the mix for supplying modern tanks to countries who want them. Depending on the price point, there will be something for everyone to buy.

There are really very few modern tanks in the Ukraine war right now. The Russians are pulling their old stock out of storage. The Ukrainians are using tanks pulled out of Western storage. After going through all the world's supply of Leo 1, the interesting question will be what comes next? Will the AMX-30 be the next donated tank variant? The Saudis have 250 in storage, the Spaniards have almost 300. The French had over 1000 of them, and I sure a large number is in storage. Which tank will the Allies pivot to when the Leo 1s run out?

 

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"(*) in storage"

Yeah.

But how many of them are actually serviceable/repairable? The Ukrainians are finding out the hard way that many of these donations (esp. the Leopard 1s) have been languishing for so long in storage, and denied preventative maintenance (just as simply traversing turrets and working the hydraulics), that they're now unfit for battle and warrant almost twice the maintenance/refit work than normal. The engines alone seem to provide them with a lot of extra work, thus straining a maintenance/logistic tail that is already struggling to keep up with an ever-expanding technical/technological ecosystem.

I mean, the Ukrainians themselves had a boatload of T64s in storage in Kharkiv before the onset of hostilities in 2022, but...there's a reason why they weren't pressed back in service...and the Russian invasion isn't entirely to blame for it.

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7 hours ago, On the way said:

...There are really very few modern tanks in the Ukraine war right now....

What you consider "new" and "modern"?

Russians produced about 100-120 T-90M last year, and they had about 60 before war. They have lost some, but not that much. Will see how much they will produce this year. It is reasonably "new" and "modern" tank. Leopard 2A6, used by Ukrainians is also reasonably "new" and "modern", even through there is less of those. I would also say that ex-Swedish Strv 122 are also reasonably "modern". All those tanks have good FCS, thermals including CITV etc.

Other, like Leo 2A4, T-72B3, T-80BVM are less modern, but still adequate, as most critical thing on tank, FCS and thermal sight are there.

4 hours ago, Renegade334 said:

...I mean, the Ukrainians themselves had a boatload of T64s in storage in Kharkiv before the onset of hostilities in 2022, but...there's a reason why they weren't pressed back in service...and the Russian invasion isn't entirely to blame for it.

Some were refurbished, but most limiting factor is timeframe, both for Russians and Ukrainians, as parts can be "found" even if in exotic places or/and outrageous price. Plus Kharkov factory was hit more than once.

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On 9/27/2023 at 1:08 PM, Mighty_Zuk said:

I call it Merkava 4 Barak. The media doesn't matter as long as it keeps calling howitzers "tanks". Media also called the Leopard 2A4 with new armor the Leopard 3. Doesn't make it any less true.

The IDF clearly refers to it as a Merkava 4. And with that said, I repeat what I said earlier - Yes, the IDF keeps producing and upgrading the Merkava 4. It produces 30 annually per official statements, and typically it replaces old models with new builds rather than upgrade old tanks to new standards.

The Merkava 4 is also likely to remain in production until the early 2030's.

They should develop am unmanned turreted Merkava with all ammunition in the turret.

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