Possible US / China War

[Josh]

Surprised this isn’t bigger news in the U.S., though it is an election year.

[Strannik]

A tripwire

 

 

Edited February 11 by Strannik

[Josh]

Taiwan, as a completely independent country, can host U.S. troops wherever it wants inside its territory. I’m surprised that they are doing this, given the inevitable Chinese blowback, but perhaps China has rattled their cage so many times they don’t see any downside?

[Strannik]

40 minutes ago, Josh said:

Taiwan, as a completely independent country

Clown

[futon]

7 hours ago, Josh said:

Taiwan, as a completely independent country, can host U.S. troops wherever it wants inside its territory. I’m surprised that they are doing this, given the inevitable Chinese blowback, but perhaps China has rattled their cage so many times they don’t see any downside?

At the start of the year, Xi again said that Taiwan is part of China and the use of force won't be ruled out to carry that out. All the while, over the past couple of years PLA air and naval activity in proximity of the Taiwan main island has increased drastically. That activity occurs around Senkaku islands and southern Ryukyu islands. New Japanese frigates are already patrolling the area.

https://www.yomiuri.co.jp/politics/20240127-OYT1T50155/

[TrustMe]

2 hours ago, futon said:

At the start of the year, Xi again said that Taiwan is part of China and the use of force won't be ruled out to carry that out. All the while, over the past couple of years PLA air and naval activity in proximity of the Taiwan main island has increased drastically. That activity occurs around Senkaku islands and southern Ryukyu islands. New Japanese frigates are already patrolling the area.

 

I know from an airwarfare point of view that Taiwan's Air Identification Zone is actually within mainland China and a lot of these so called hostile  PLAAF activity is nonsense. 

 

[seahawk]

Taiwan is a part of China.

[futon]

20 minutes ago, TrustMe said:

 

I know from an airwarfare point of view that Taiwan's Air Identification Zone is actually within mainland China and a lot of these so called hostile  PLAAF activity is nonsense. 

 

If the issue was only the ADIZ, then the PRC should center its policy on the removal of that radar. But since the PRC maintains that Taiwan is part of China and keeps the threat of force on the table, then that old ADIZ keeps its merit. Its pretty symbolic though since obviously, Taiwanese military aircraft are not flying over the China mainland in order to uphold that ADIZ boundary. It's essentially old KMT CKS's ROC era made ADIZ. If ROC was just Taiwan and the PRC was cool with it, then it would be on Taiwan to alter the ADIZ. Maybe they should alter anyway. But maybe there is military reason to have detection means into the mainland are across the strait because as a island, air blockade is a real threat. Also, the PRC has over a 1,000 BMs pointed at Taiwan. The soonest possible detection of the launch of those is critical. Hostile PLAAF activity are those that cross the so-called "median line" and those have increased drastically in past couple of years. These activities all carry on the message of bringing Taiwan onto CCP China's territory.

[futon]

30 minutes ago, seahawk said:

Taiwan is a part of China.

IOW "TN is desparate for poster activity, let's try triggering". 

TN = Troll Net.

[TrustMe]

2 hours ago, futon said:

If the issue was only the ADIZ, then the PRC should center its policy on the removal of that radar. But since the PRC maintains that Taiwan is part of China and keeps the threat of force on the table, then that old ADIZ keeps its merit. Its pretty symbolic though since obviously, Taiwanese military aircraft are not flying over the China mainland in order to uphold that ADIZ boundary. It's essentially old KMT CKS's ROC era made ADIZ. If ROC was just Taiwan and the PRC was cool with it, then it would be on Taiwan to alter the ADIZ. Maybe they should alter anyway. But maybe there is military reason to have detection means into the mainland are across the strait because as a island, air blockade is a real threat. Also, the PRC has over a 1,000 BMs pointed at Taiwan. The soonest possible detection of the launch of those is critical. Hostile PLAAF activity are those that cross the so-called "median line" and those have increased drastically in past couple of years. These activities all carry on the message of bringing Taiwan onto CCP China's territory.

 

News coverage in the UK of Taiwan is rare but over here they use the violation of the Taiwanese ADIZ as an example of China's aggressiveness rather than on the median line of control.

I didn't know about all those balistic missiles pointing at Taiwan, I always thoght it was fewer. Does China have BM's pointing at Japan as well?

[urbanoid]

43 minutes ago, TrustMe said:

 

News coverage in the UK of Taiwan is rare but over here they use the violation of the Taiwanese ADIZ as an example of China's aggressiveness rather than on the median line of control.

I didn't know about all those balistic missiles pointing at Taiwan, I always thoght it was fewer. Does China have BM's pointing at Japan as well?

My first thought reading this - United Kingdom of Taiwan. Would be fun, but who would be the king?

[TrustMe]

😁

[glenn239]

14 hours ago, Josh said:

Taiwan, as a completely independent country

Citiation for your claim that Taiwan's international legal status is that of an independent country please.

[Josh]

2 hours ago, TrustMe said:

 

News coverage in the UK of Taiwan is rare but over here they use the violation of the Taiwanese ADIZ as an example of China's aggressiveness rather than on the median line of control.

there certain is no shortage of median line crossings or enveloping flights, but it is poor journalism to list ADiZ entries without characterizing them.

2 hours ago, TrustMe said:

I didn't know about all those balistic missiles pointing at Taiwan, I always thoght it was fewer. Does China have BM's pointing at Japan as well?

Yes. And Guam.

[Josh]

34 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

Citiation for your claim that Taiwan's international legal status is that of an independent country please.

Taiwan is not recognized as such, but clearly is in every measurable way. They were never ruled by the Chinese communist party. If China wants a war over it., well then I guess they will have one. But they have never run the place and the pro unification effort polls in single digits.

[Strannik]

Chinese are celebrating Lunar New Year for the next two weeks.  We will have to wait to see if there will be a response.

Edited February 11 by Strannik

[futon]

7 hours ago, TrustMe said:

 

News coverage in the UK of Taiwan is rare but over here they use the violation of the Taiwanese ADIZ as an example of China's aggressiveness rather than on the median line of control.

I didn't know about all those balistic missiles pointing at Taiwan, I always thoght it was fewer. Does China have BM's pointing at Japan as well?

China BM's are exolicitly pointed at Taiwan. The combination of their statements from generals to Xi himself and the actual military activity and military related PRC made videos make the message clear. Those BM's are intently targating Taiwan. So there's no overstatement in the use of the expression of "pointing at Taiwan". The degree of intently pointing at Japan is less in general. Specific targets in Japan are likely on the hit list, such as the various US and Japanese bases. Those are targeted to aid the PRC goal of annexing Taiwan, not for annexing Okinawa, Kyushu, or whatever. The only bit of Japan that China will want to annex in all capacity is thr Senkaku islands. So there the reason of intent between pointing at Taiwan and pointing at Japan is different. Although.. for Japan, China is aleady so big and so if China gets Taiwan, then the strategic balance with the 1st island chain being broken and PLA air and naval having greater access to Japan's underbelly strategic places Taiwan for Japan as some degree of survival. Furthermore, there is a relation between Taiwan and Japan that is good enough to call into honouring that relation by not just standing by and watching a friendly Taiwan that still wants peace with China getting assualted by China. So in that way, there is a degree of BM's that are pointed at Taiwan de facto also point at Japan. The Taiwanese population, even though inhereted many Chinese characters, plainly and openly do not want to be part of CCP China. If they did, then Xi's "rejuvenation" of reunification can happen, and irrespective of how Japan may feel about it. Although if China was a country that Taiwan would want to be annexed by, then maybe China would also be a country that this post-war Japan would be at ease with. But no, CCP China is not that. With that said, one other factor is the range of the various BM's in the PRC arsenal. Lots if them are fairly short range.. 300km-500km or something like that. So those for the most part don't reach most of Japan, thus only for targeting Taiwan. Longer range BMs that can reach the bulk of Honshu island is fewer, probably several 100. Of course that could include any nuclear capable ones. But again, those are not as explicitly pointing at Japan as the BM's targeting Taiwan. Of course the PRC probably has a target list in the back room for nukes on Japan.. but such back room plans is held by most nuclear powers. Basically its the Japanese bases that have to be ready to deal with BMs. If they can rebuild and reorganize quickly after a BM strike, then it absorbs BM's which draws pressure off of Taiwan. If the PRC wants to topple the US-led order in the Asia-Pacific, they should try getting a higher degree of trust from the surrounding countries. But a one party-led CCP country is incapable of that I believe. So the only way for a country like that to assert its own regional hegemony is simply by raw power. They may still be successful at that. The one country in the region that stands in the way of that the most is Japan. All the others are too small and too weak and without Japan, the US won't be able too either. 

[Strannik]

China has warned the Philippines against "playing with fire" amid reports that Manila plans to bolster its military deployment on strategically important islands it controls near Taiwan.

FM reiterated Beijing's position that Taiwan was "at the centre of China's core interests and represents an insurmountable red line and bottom line".

https://www.bangkokpost.com/world/2739366/china-warns-philippines-against-playing-with-fire-as-manila-boosts-military-presence-near-taiwan

[TrustMe]

21 hours ago, futon said:

China BM's are exolicitly pointed at Taiwan. The combination of their statements from generals to Xi himself and the actual military activity and military related PRC made videos make the message clear. Those BM's are intently targating Taiwan. So there's no overstatement in the use of the expression of "pointing at Taiwan". The degree of intently pointing at Japan is less in general. Specific targets in Japan are likely on the hit list, such as the various US and Japanese bases. Those are targeted to aid the PRC goal of annexing Taiwan, not for annexing Okinawa, Kyushu, or whatever. The only bit of Japan that China will want to annex in all capacity is thr Senkaku islands. So there the reason of intent between pointing at Taiwan and pointing at Japan is different. Although.. for Japan, China is aleady so big and so if China gets Taiwan, then the strategic balance with the 1st island chain being broken and PLA air and naval having greater access to Japan's underbelly strategic places Taiwan for Japan as some degree of survival. Furthermore, there is a relation between Taiwan and Japan that is good enough to call into honouring that relation by not just standing by and watching a friendly Taiwan that still wants peace with China getting assualted by China. So in that way, there is a degree of BM's that are pointed at Taiwan de facto also point at Japan. The Taiwanese population, even though inhereted many Chinese characters, plainly and openly do not want to be part of CCP China. If they did, then Xi's "rejuvenation" of reunification can happen, and irrespective of how Japan may feel about it. Although if China was a country that Taiwan would want to be annexed by, then maybe China would also be a country that this post-war Japan would be at ease with. But no, CCP China is not that. With that said, one other factor is the range of the various BM's in the PRC arsenal. Lots if them are fairly short range.. 300km-500km or something like that. So those for the most part don't reach most of Japan, thus only for targeting Taiwan. Longer range BMs that can reach the bulk of Honshu island is fewer, probably several 100. Of course that could include any nuclear capable ones. But again, those are not as explicitly pointing at Japan as the BM's targeting Taiwan. Of course the PRC probably has a target list in the back room for nukes on Japan.. but such back room plans is held by most nuclear powers. Basically its the Japanese bases that have to be ready to deal with BMs. If they can rebuild and reorganize quickly after a BM strike, then it absorbs BM's which draws pressure off of Taiwan. If the PRC wants to topple the US-led order in the Asia-Pacific, they should try getting a higher degree of trust from the surrounding countries. But a one party-led CCP country is incapable of that I believe. So the only way for a country like that to assert its own regional hegemony is simply by raw power. They may still be successful at that. The one country in the region that stands in the way of that the most is Japan. All the others are too small and too weak and without Japan, the US won't be able too either. 

Thanks for that Futon it makes clear a lot of things. 

Personally I don't believe that Taiwan's population would fight in a China-Taiwan war, but that's only my opinion.

Edited February 12 by TrustMe

[glenn239]

2 hours ago, Strannik said:

China has warned the Philippines against "playing with fire" amid reports that Manila plans to bolster its military deployment on strategically important islands it controls near Taiwan.

I half expect at some point that there will be a civil war in the Philippines, courtesy of the US-Chinese Asian rivalry.

[futon]

7 hours ago, TrustMe said:

Thanks for that Futon it makes clear a lot of things. 

Personally I don't believe that Taiwan's population would fight in a China-Taiwan war, but that's only my opinion.

You're welcome. Well, I don't much expect them to fight if it was strictly China-Taiwan only because of the size disparity: https://www.tanknet.org/index.php?/topic/48383-possible-us-china-war/&do=findComment&comment=1717863

[Strannik]

China won't bite today.

 

 

[sunday]

Quote

the US is trying to start a "proxy war" wrt Taiwan where "Chinese will be killing Chinese"

Looks like they learnt from the conflict in Ukraine.

[futon]

[urbanoid]

9 hours ago, Strannik said:

China won't bite today.

 

 

Whoa, not falling into that alleged 'trap' must be the easiest thing ever - all it takes is to sit on their asses.