Possible US / China War

[urbanoid]

Just now, Roman Alymov said:

As far as i understand it is result of US ban on semiconductors import from China.... Now key materials to produce US own semiconductors are banned by China. Will see who will blink.

Don't you mean 'semiconductors import from by China' from the US?

Still, it's a necessary kick in the ass for US and the West in general to ditch green idiocies and start mining ourselves. Rare earth metals aren't that rare, they're not mined for environmental reasons. 

I welcome breaking every link between that makes the West dependent on countries challenging Western primacy. I don't mind them being dependent on the West, obviously.

[Roman Alymov]

16 hours ago, urbanoid said:

Don't you mean 'semiconductors import from by China' from the US?

No idea, here is article on that

"China has cut off the United States from important high-tech materials

This was a response to the latest large-scale package of US sanctions on chips

Vladimir Kulagin

China and the United States are deepening the "semiconductor war" between themselves with new sanctions On December 3, the Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China announced a complete ban on the supply of a number of dual-use goods to the United States (they can be used in both civil and military spheres), in particular products related to gallium, germanium, antimony and unnamed superhard materials. They are used in the manufacture of semiconductor products, batteries and ammunition. Graphite exports to the United States (used in various industrial sectors, including the creation of electric cars and nuclear power) will now be subject to stricter end-user verification. These measures are justified, among other things, by national security considerations and followed immediately after the decision of the administration of U.S. President Joe Biden on December 2 to introduce a third large-scale package of sanctions against the semiconductor industry of China, which affected 140 companies. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian said at a briefing on December 3 that Beijing had made a "serious presentation" to the United States in this regard. Before that, China announced general restrictions on the export of gallium and germany back in July 2023, requiring coordination with the Ministry of Commerce of each such operation (which raised prices for these metals in Europe by almost half), for synthetic and natural graphite – in October 2023, and for antimony – in August 2024 (prices for antimony trioxide has increased by more than 200% since the beginning of the year). According to the US Geological Survey, China accounts for about 98% of the world's total production of gallium, 60% of germanium and 48% of antimony. Gallium and germanium are used in the production of high–speed microprocessors, the defense industry and the renewable energy sector, and the US dependence on gallium is 100%, and on Germany - more than 50%, emphasizes Boris Krasnozhenov, head of the Securities Markets Analytics Department at Alfa Bank. And the ban on the export of these metals from China to the United States looks quite significant for the market, taking into account the use of metals in strategically important industries. At the same time, if in 2023, before the first restrictions of the PRC, the United States imported 53% of gallium and 54% of germany from there, then in 2024 imports from there, according to Reuters and Bloomberg, were completely stopped. Agencies report that American industry has instead used existing stocks or purchased materials from other countries. But at the same time, Krasnozhenov draws attention, it also indicates that in November the US Geological Survey reported that a complete ban on China's exports of gallium and germany would cause damage to the US economy in the amount of $ 3.4 billion. Similarly, with antimony, only 18% of American demand for which is met through the processing of lead-acid batteries, and the rest through imports (it has not been mined in the United States since 2001, writes Forbes). If before September 2024, China's share in US raw materials supplies was more than 60%, then in October supplies from there collapsed by 97%. Gallium and germanium are most often obtained as a by-product in enterprises specializing in the production of zinc, lead or when working with bauxites. These elements cannot be considered very rare, but they are scattered in the earth's crust, do not form deposits, and their production in pure form is expensive. Gallium is used in semiconductors, and germanium is also used in infrared technology, fiber optic cables and solar energy. Antimony is used in the manufacture of ammunition, in night vision goggles, batteries and photovoltaic equipment, as well as nuclear energy. Graphite is one of the main components of batteries, including for electric vehicles. On December 2, the Bureau of Industry and Security of the U.S. Department of Commerce introduced the third package of export restrictions from 2022, which affects 140 companies from China: high-bandwidth memory chips (HBM), which are used in AI chips, 24 types of equipment and three categories of software for semiconductor development. Many of the companies that have fallen under the new restrictions, according to Washington, cooperate with Huawei. At the end of his term, Biden introduced quite sensitive measures not only on chips, but also against Chinese companies that are suspected of helping Russia. And China has probably now decided to specifically increase its restrictions in response, without waiting for Trump to come to power and thereby preparing itself a stronger position for negotiations, says Alexey Maslov, director of the ISAA of Moscow State University." ( Китай отрезал США от важных для хайтека материалов - Ведомости )

[futon]

The leadership role:

REFORPAC, the large-scale exercise in the Pacific planned for summer 2025, will be on a scale unseen by the Air Force in recent memory: nearly 300 aircraft spread across 25 locations. 

...

https://www.airandspaceforces.com/pacaf-deputy-reforpac-exercise-nearly-300-aircraft/

[Tim the Tank Nut]

ReforPAC is a great name for the exercise.  The name alone sends a message.

[futon]

Yep, absolutely.

[JWB]

The Chinese Drone Company, DJI has released an Update that removes its Geofencing System (GEO) from Drones sold within the United States. The System, which would previously prevent Drone Operators from flying through Restricted/No-Fly Zones across the Country, including Military Bases, Airports, Power Plants, and other Sensitive Sites; will be replaced with one that sends an Alert to the Operator if they are flying within what DJI is calling “Enhanced Warning Zones” but will not prevent the Operators from entering or flying through like the previous System.

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1879036420364361753