Possible US / China War

[glenn239]

The Chinese claim advances in the use of AI for electronic warfare,

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3284588/words-can-kill-j-20-designer-arms-electronic-warfare-drones-generative-ai

This large language model (LLM), similar to ChatGPT, can command a drone equipped with electronic warfare weapons to attack enemy aircraft radar or communication systems.

Its decision-making performance in air combat not only surpasses traditional artificial intelligence (AI) techniques such as reinforcement learning, but is also better than experienced human experts, test results suggest.

[Stefan Kotsch]

1 hour ago, glenn239 said:

traditional artificial intelligence

Even here I have serious doubts.

But that is very doubtful:

1 hour ago, glenn239 said:

better than experienced human experts

Maybe good routines and algorithms can provide advantages. But is that AI? Probably not yet.

[Josh]

There’s a lot of work being done on adaptive electronic warfare in the U.S., and presumably in the PRC. This is where a system detects a new waveform from an existing system or encounters a new threat system altogether, and then invents a new jamming mode to counter it in real time rather than having to wait for one to be developed and deployed. But I doubt we will have any insight into such systems even when they are deployed and used.

[Roman Alymov]

5 hours ago, Josh said:

There’s a lot of work being done on adaptive electronic warfare in the U.S., and presumably in the PRC. This is where a system detects a new waveform from an existing system or encounters a new threat system altogether, and then invents a new jamming mode to counter it in real time rather than having to wait for one to be developed and deployed. But I doubt we will have any insight into such systems even when they are deployed and used.

I have no idea what is waveform, but let me tell you how it works on the battlefield in Russia now. Many teams on both sides of the front were trying to "create a automatic/AI system that would detect threats and jam them". The problem is, "new threat", for example new model of enemy FPV, is ususally coming in a different frequency range, and to successfully jam it with signal powerful enough, this majic system would need transmitter(s) and antenna device(s) for all possible frequency ranges, and it will create device so big and powerful it becomes "fat" target for Iskander or HIMARS or just artillery strike, or for FPV drone controlled via optic fiber.....  There is no way to bypass laws of physics.

[Josh]

47 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

I have no idea what is waveform, but let me tell you how it works on the battlefield in Russia now. Many teams on both sides of the front were trying to "create an automatic/AI system that would detect threats and jam them". The problem is, "new threat", for example new model of enemy FPV, is ususally coming in a different frequency range, and to successfully jam it with signal powerful enough, this majic system would need transmitter(s) and antenna device(s) for all possible frequency ranges, and it will create device so big and powerful it becomes "fat" target for Iskander or HIMARS or just artillery strike, or for FPV drone controlled via optic fiber.....  There is no way to bypass laws of physics.

Waveform = frequencies, pulse repetitions, etc that define an RF emission. Modern phased array systems are not limited to specific frequencies, revisit times, power output, etc and so can be harder to detect (especially against a backdrop of numerous other emitting systems) and harder to jam. The goal is for the AI to identify an ever hand radar signal from a particular emitter and invent a way to jam it. This might involve broadband signals, sweeping, false return signals, etc. Ideally the system determines not only methods that will interfere with detection but also chooses one best asap to the tactical situation.

[Roman Alymov]

5 minutes ago, Josh said:

Waveform = frequencies, pulse repetitions, etc that define an RF emission. Modern phased array systems are not limited to specific frequencies, revisit times, power output, etc and so can be harder to detect (especially against a backdrop of numerous other emitting systems) and harder to jam. The goal is for the AI to identify an ever hand radar signal from a particular emitter and invent a way to jam it. This might involve broadband signals, sweeping, false return signals, etc. Ideally the system determines not only methods that will interfere with detection but also chooses one best asap to the tactical situation.

   I am not in any way specialist in radio physics, but as far as i remember from my univercity course 30 years ago phased array is de-facto set of many emitters/recievers operated under control of smart computing system, and while it really allows to play a lot of tricks with beam(s) direction etc. (way above what old directed antennas were able to do), statement that this systems "are not limited to specific frequencies" and "power output" is overstatement for obvious reasons of physcs limitations.

    Anyway, all this is old good competition of sword and shield. As far as i understand, some of modern "radars" do not even need to emit any signal - but are computing the location of objects from reflections of ambient radio noise (like communication satelites overhead). 

  

[glenn239]

17 hours ago, Josh said:

Waveform = frequencies, pulse repetitions, etc that define an RF emission. Modern phased array systems are not limited to specific frequencies, revisit times, power output, etc and so can be harder to detect (especially against a backdrop of numerous other emitting systems) and harder to jam. The goal is for the AI to identify an ever hand radar signal from a particular emitter and invent a way to jam it. This might involve broadband signals, sweeping, false return signals, etc. Ideally the system determines not only methods that will interfere with detection but also chooses one best asap to the tactical situation.

On the other side, AI is also being used to counter jamming within AD networks, so its a race of AI vs AI.  

[sunday]

Looks like the new SecDef has been studying China:

https://x.com/Kronykal/status/1856513582982164570

Quote

The Pentagon, the past X number of years, 10, 12, 15, the Pentagon has a perfect record in all of its wargames against China. We lose every time inside the Pentagon wargames. We know what our real capabilities are. We didn’t even get into this part of The War on Warriors. The way we train for conflicts, the way we procure weapons systems, the way our system works, the way our bureaucratic system works, the way the speed of weapons procurement works, we’re always a decade behind and fighting the last war.

Whereas China – what did Rumsfeld say, you go to war with the army you have – China is building an army specifically dedicated to defeating the United States of America. That is their strategic outset. Take hypersonic missiles. Our whole power-projection plaform is our aircraft carriers and our ability to project power that way, strategically around the globe. And yeah, we have a nuclear triad and all that, but that’s a big part of it.

And if 15 hypersonic missiles can take out our ten aircraft carriers in the first 20 minutes of a conflict, what does that look like? If they’ve already got us by the balls economically, which you pointed out very well, with our grid. Culturally, there’s plenty of elite capture going on around the globe. Microchips and everything, why do they want Taiwan? They want to corner the market completely on the technological future. We can’t even drive our cars without the stuff we need out of China these days. They have a full-spectrum, long-term view of not just regional, but global domination.

And we have our heads up our asses.

 

[TrustMe]

With my cynical view of things, it sounds like the US DOD is asking for more money.

[urbanoid]

Most likely, not to mention that from the USian point of view it's better if China attacks Taiwan sooner rather than later.

 

[sunday]

That guy would be SecDef in January, not yet...

[urbanoid]

I, for one, was referring to the 'lost wargames'.

[sunday]

55 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

I, for one, was referring to the 'lost wargames'.

That perfect record suggest a possible problem that could not be solved by throwing money at it:

Quote

“If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.”
― Sun Tzu, The Art of War

 

Edited November 13 by sunday

[glenn239]

7 hours ago, TrustMe said:

With my cynical view of things, it sounds like the US DOD is asking for more money.

You're probably right, but the purpose might also be signaling that the policy itself is unrealistic in the longer term.

[Miner]

On 11/3/2024 at 9:19 AM, Roman Alymov said:

   I am not in any way specialist in radio physics, but as far as i remember from my univercity course 30 years ago phased array is de-facto set of many emitters/recievers operated under control of smart computing system, and while it really allows to play a lot of tricks with beam(s) direction etc. (way above what old directed antennas were able to do), statement that this systems "are not limited to specific frequencies" and "power output" is overstatement for obvious reasons of physcs limitations.

 

Big change from 30 years ago is Software Defined Radio with colossal price reduction eg a 10Ghz spectrum analyser is now the price of a soldering iron.

[Roman Alymov]

On 11/14/2024 at 2:08 PM, Miner said:

Big change from 30 years ago is Software Defined Radio with colossal price reduction eg a 10Ghz spectrum analyser is now the price of a soldering iron.

It definitely moves fiscal limitations, but not physical ones.

[futon]

Japan's role in existing US-Aus-Jpn trilateral exercises is to increase while several exercises that have been bilaterial US-Aus and US-Jpn are to become trilaterized next year.

https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3967118/australia-japan-united-states-trilateral-defense-ministers-meeting-november-202/

[Roman Alymov]

Su-57E ("export version") promo reel by Oboronexport for Airshow China 2024. Quite possibly China might be the first country to purchase Su-57

https://t.me/roe_russia/1132

[Chazzer]

9 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

Su-57E ("export version") promo reel by Oboronexport for Airshow China 2024. Quite possibly China might be the first country to purchase Su-57

https://t.me/roe_russia/1132

Interesting. What does the Su-57 bring to the party that the J-20 doesnt?.

We are obviously limited to open source info here.

 

Regards

Chazza

[Roman Alymov]

8 minutes ago, Chazzer said:

Interesting. What does the Su-57 bring to the party that the J-20 doesnt?.

We are obviously limited to open source info here.

We know so little about both planes, that it is no way to tell. What is obvious is that Su-57 is capable of flying at least on par with modern Russian non-stealth fighters and is combat-tested, while it is not clear as if J-20 is.

  At least two Su-57 are now on flightshow in China, remarkably one of them arrived "on his own wings" while second one was brought disassembled onboard An-124 - probably to demonstrate it is not so maintanance-intensive as US stealth fighters. But who knows....

 

[RETAC21]

1 hour ago, Roman Alymov said:

We know so little about both planes, that it is no way to tell. What is obvious is that Su-57 is capable of flying at least on par with modern Russian non-stealth fighters and is combat-tested, while it is not clear as if J-20 is.

  At least two Su-57 are now on flightshow in China, remarkably one of them arrived "on his own wings" while second one was brought disassembled onboard An-124 - probably to demonstrate it is not so maintanance-intensive as US stealth fighters. But who knows....

 

What a show! 

[TrustMe]

Echo that.. You won't see a F35 doing anything like that.

[Roman Alymov]

China bans export of key minerals to U.S. as trade frictions escalate | Reuters

[urbanoid]

15 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

China bans export of key minerals to U.S. as trade frictions escalate | Reuters

Fabulous news, unironically.

[Roman Alymov]

11 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

Fabulous news, unironically.

As far as i understand it is result of US ban on semiconductors import from China.... Now key materials to produce US own semiconductors are banned by China. Will see who will blink.