Possible US / China War

[Strannik]

Readouts from US/China FM meet:

🇺🇸:
The two sides discussed a range of bilateral, regional & global issues, incl. addressing areas of difference as well as exploring areas of cooperation. The Secretary reiterated that the US will continue to stand up for our interests & values & those of our allies and partners

🇨🇳: 
The two sides had an in-depth exchange of views on Sino-US relations and issues of common concern in a constructive atmosphere.

😂

[glenn239]

Blinken is in China mostly to sound out whether the US can put the boots to Iran without the Chinese doing anything.   The Chinese answer was probably something along the lines of non-committal.

[Strannik]

38 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

Blinken is in China mostly to sound out whether the US can put the boots to Iran without the Chinese doing anything.   The Chinese answer was probably something along the lines of non-committal.

I doubt it.  Xi is supposedly going to SF to meet Biden and US full scale war with Iran would very likely scuttle these plans.

[Josh]

The Biden Administration has interest in a war with Iran. Though it is possible the Israel conflict ultimately sucks the US into one.

[Strannik]

Chinese media shared video & quotes from PLA Lieutenant General He Lei:

 

[Josh]

3 hours ago, Strannik said:

Chinese media shared video & quotes from PLA Lieutenant General He Lei:

 

I suspect the Taiwanese feel similar. It’s a shame China feels a two state solution only works for Palestine.

[Strannik]

4 hours ago, Josh said:

I suspect the Taiwanese feel similar. It’s a shame China feels a two state solution only works for Palestine.

Be it as it may their narrative about the "foreign interference" present (and applied differently in both cases) is correct.

[X-Files]

If folks new to this site are Kriegspielling, check out this thread

 

[Strannik]

China hawk is worried:

https://x.com/ElbridgeColby/status/1737587923371938246?s=20

Quasi-suicidal behavior from Taiwan:

“For all the support given by Washington, the reality is that when it comes to both civil and military defense, the democratically governed island still has a lot to do.” 

“Conversations with US-based security analysts and former administration officials, as well as with members of the government in Taipei, cast doubt on Taiwan’s ability to deter, let alone resist China — with some even questioning the will to do so.”

“I don’t think Taiwan is in very good shape,” said Kevin McCauley, former senior China analyst for the US Army National Ground Intelligence Center. “They are not making the right modernization decisions,” from buying heavy M-1 tanks and large ships “that won’t survive” to poor training. “They’re talking about how they’ll improve these things,” he said. “But I don’t see it.”

“Polls suggest that a little more than half of respondents are willing to defend Taiwan if China attacks, meaning that “some 40% of Taiwanese people are likely to choose capitulation or rapprochement,” said Puma Shen.”

“Eric Heginbotham, a principal research scientist at MIT’s Center for International Studies and a specialist in Asian security issues, said that he “wouldn’t be shocked if Taiwan threw up its hands in the first days of a conflict,…Even leaving that aside, he said, the Taiwanese are “not well prepared psychologically or materially, and their training is not sufficiently realistic.”

 

[Roman Alymov]

1 hour ago, Strannik said:

China hawk is worried:

https://x.com/ElbridgeColby/status/1737587923371938246?s=20

Quasi-suicidal behavior from Taiwan:

“For all the support given by Washington, the reality is that when it comes to both civil and military defense, the democratically governed island still has a lot to do.” 

“Conversations with US-based security analysts and former administration officials, as well as with members of the government in Taipei, cast doubt on Taiwan’s ability to deter, let alone resist China — with some even questioning the will to do so.”

“I don’t think Taiwan is in very good shape,” said Kevin McCauley, former senior China analyst for the US Army National Ground Intelligence Center. “They are not making the right modernization decisions,” from buying heavy M-1 tanks and large ships “that won’t survive” to poor training. “They’re talking about how they’ll improve these things,” he said. “But I don’t see it.”

“Polls suggest that a little more than half of respondents are willing to defend Taiwan if China attacks, meaning that “some 40% of Taiwanese people are likely to choose capitulation or rapprochement,” said Puma Shen.”

“Eric Heginbotham, a principal research scientist at MIT’s Center for International Studies and a specialist in Asian security issues, said that he “wouldn’t be shocked if Taiwan threw up its hands in the first days of a conflict,…Even leaving that aside, he said, the Taiwanese are “not well prepared psychologically or materially, and their training is not sufficiently realistic.”

 

It is not "Quasi-suicidal behavior from Taiwan", it is "Ukraine-style behavior". Taiwan is new Ukraine, with important difference it is impossible to leave Taiwan on inflatable pool toy as Ukraine citizens are trying to do

 

[futon]

It's logical for many Taiwanese to capitulate. If the war starts and a few days pass without direct US and/or Japanese naval and air miltary getting involved, then its a clear sign that the war would evolve into a meat grind of destruction on the ground of the island with a disparity in size of various kinds between the PRC and Taiwan too great. So it becomes a choice between two bad options, living under CCP rule or dying with consequences of that to those that are close. If the US and Japan don't step in, then that 40% have no shame in not fighting. The fact that over 50% said to fight is quite good. A tricky thing about Taiwan training is that likely there's more than a handful of CCP spies in the forces and a few that may do sabatage work. On the one hand, military joint-training would be desirable as that would make more use of their forces if it could plug-in smoothly to US or Japanese forces, but on the other, it could expose sensitive information. But those few lurking Pro-CCP insiders is no reason to give up on the rest of Taiwan. To prevent the war is deterrance which is long term preparation. 

[Strannik]

Taiwanese wants to be independent but also doesn't want to become the next American proxy war.

 

[Strannik]

The desire for a political union with China remains at an all-time low, but the results indicated complex sentiments among Taiwanese respondents when it came to the island's relations with major powers.

Only 33.9 percent of those polled considered the U.S. to be a trustworthy country, a figure that was unchanged from last year but down from 43.4 percent in 2021, according to a summary of the findings.

  This data points to persistent underlying apprehension about the America's reliability as an ally in the face of China's growing military presence in and around the Taiwan Strait, even as 55.7 percent of Taiwanese found the U.S.'s increased commitment to Taiwan's security to be credible.

https://www.newsweek.com/taiwan-china-publicopinion-trust-us-1845517

[Josh]

1 hour ago, Strannik said:

Taiwanese wants to be independent but also doesn't want to become the next American proxy war.

 

Most Taiwanese prefer independence but do not want to be the next Chinese proxy war.

The US is absolutely fine with the status quo.

[Josh]

45 minutes ago, Strannik said:

The desire for a political union with China remains at an all-time low, but the results indicated complex sentiments among Taiwanese respondents when it came to the island's relations with major powers.

Only 33.9 percent of those polled considered the U.S. to be a trustworthy country, a figure that was unchanged from last year but down from 43.4 percent in 2021, according to a summary of the findings.

  This data points to persistent underlying apprehension about the America's reliability as an ally in the face of China's growing military presence in and around the Taiwan Strait, even as 55.7 percent of Taiwanese found the U.S.'s increased commitment to Taiwan's security to be credible.

https://www.newsweek.com/taiwan-china-publicopinion-trust-us-1845517

So basically, the Taiwanese don't think the US is provoking China *enough*.  

[Strannik]

7 minutes ago, Josh said:

So basically, the Taiwanese don't think the US is provoking China *enough*.  

Right, they'd prefer the war to happen on the continent and not on their island 🤣

[Josh]

3 hours ago, Strannik said:

Right, they'd prefer the war to happen on the continent and not on their island 🤣

 

 

Edited December 21, 2023 by Josh

[Strannik]

WSJ produced a cule little scary video on Chinese missile threat (no paywall)

https://www.wsj.com/video/series/wsj-explains/a-secretive-chinese-force-is-becoming-the-us-militarys-biggest-challenge/B379CBEF-E14C-4501-833C-3E444F37C761?mod=e2tw

[Strannik]

 

China lab simulates attack on US warships using space weapons, hypersonic missiles

• Laboratory that works on electronic warfare equipment for PLA shows how satellites and missiles might be used to strike an aircraft carrier group
• Researchers say ‘electronic warfare in outer space using low-orbit satellite constellations has become an important means of information warfare’

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3249028/china-lab-simulates-attack-us-warships-using-space-weapons-hypersonic-missiles

An American aircraft carrier strike group churns through the ocean at full throttle. With warplanes, its combat range is 1,000km (620 miles).

From 1,200km (745 miles) away, a salvo of Chinese hypersonic anti-ship missiles is launched skyward. They climb for more than 200km (124 miles), then head for the US warships, whose radars do not detect them until 10 minutes after launch. By then the missiles are just 50km (30 miles) away.

This is how a computer-simulated attack played out in a Chinese research lab in Chengdu – an exercise that showed how the People’s Liberation Army might use space weapons to strike an American aircraft carrier group.

By unveiling previously secret tech, is China preparing to fight space wars?

Leading the project was Liu Shichang, a scientist with the Science and Technology on Electronic Information Control Laboratory. The secretive lab works on electronic warfare equipment for the Chinese military, under state-owned China Electronics Technology Group Corporation.

Liu said the missiles went undetected because China’s space-based electromagnetic weapon system was suppressing the radars of the escort ships in a “top-down” manner.

“Commanding height has always been a pivotal tactic in war since ancient times,” Liu and the team wrote in the peer-reviewed Chinese journal Shipboard Electronic Countermeasures in December.

“With the evolution of the concept of war and the advancement of technology, space has become a new commanding height fiercely contested by the world’s military powers.”

In the simulation, the Chinese missiles had backup from several low-orbit electronic warfare satellites that were in position above the American aircraft carrier, according to the paper.

The satellites found radar signals from the US warships then fired back similar, high-powered signals – so that even if radar waves were being reflected by the missiles, the echoes could not be distinguished from the strong background noise.

Liu’s team concluded that a low-orbit satellite constellation had some “unique advantages” in a challenging mission such as this.

Space-based platforms – unlike electronic-warfare aircraft, for example – operate beyond national boundaries, so they can be swiftly mobilised across the globe and cover a broader combat range.

And because these satellites are in orbit at only a few hundred kilometres, the jamming signals they beam down “suffer minimal power loss, require less sensitive receivers and transmitter power, and are more feasible for engineering”, the research team said.

It said China was “forging ahead with related research and applications”, and that “electronic warfare in outer space using low-orbit satellite constellations has become an important means of information warfare”.

Based on their study, the researchers believe two or three satellites would be enough to attack an aircraft carrier group, while a constellation of just 28 satellites would support a global strike.

The Chengdu team’s simulation was based on the US military’s SPY-1D radar that is used – mainly by the navy’s Arleigh Burke-class destroyers – to detect long-range anti-ship missiles.

Lockheed Martin makes the radar and told US media last year that it could remain in service until 2060.

The SPY-1 series has been in operation since the 1970s, meaning China’s military is well acquainted with its capabilities, according to the researchers.

They believed two satellites could be used to suppress the same radar from different angles, creating “false air alerts to the front, side and behind the enemy”.

So when the Chinese anti-ship missiles are within 50km (30 miles) of the target, “the satellites complete their suppression mission, the missile-borne jammers are activated, and the missiles perform terminal manoeuvres for further penetration until they destroy the target”, the paper said.

A long-range attack on an aircraft carrier strike group is considered difficult to achieve – satellites, missiles and ships are all high-speed moving targets. But Liu’s team claim that their simulation – which set out a timeline and space range for such a strike – shows it is possible.

They noted that other countries, such as the US and Russia, were also looking to space weapons for this scenario.

Fifth force: is China adding hypersonic ‘near-space command’ to its military?

The hypersonic missile used in the simulation was not disclosed but the paper emphasised that it differed from a traditional ballistic missile in its ability to manoeuvre during the terminal phase – meaning it could approach a target on an unpredictable trajectory.

The missile’s stated range is similar to that of China’s YJ-21 “aircraft carrier killer”. The hypersonic anti-ship missile is believed to be able to reach speeds of up to Mach 10, which would leave an enemy air defence system with less than 20 seconds to react.

Military experts believe the YJ-21 has been deployed on warships such as the Type 055 destroyer. The Chengdu team did not disclose the platform for launching the missiles in their simulation.

In another simulation last year, by researchers from North University of China, Chinese hypersonic missiles were launched from land towards a US aircraft carrier strike group.

Just over 20 hypersonic missiles were deployed to attack the American naval fleet in that scenario, but space assets were not used and the Chinese missiles were detected from launch by the US.

Relevant:

US is updating SPY-1 radars on 21 Burkes: https://seapowermagazine.org/lockheed-martin-upgrading-spy-1-radars-on-21-ddgs-to-counter-evolving-threats/?print=print

Burkes Fl.IIA (upgrade starting with four hulls) will receive SPY-6 radars: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/middle-aged-navy-destroyers-getting-2-0-upgrade-package

New Burke's will receive SPY-6 radars: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/the-us-navy-is-getting-a-major-radar-upgrade

Edited January 24 by Strannik

[Josh]

4 hours ago, Strannik said:

An American aircraft carrier strike group churns through the ocean at full throttle. With warplanes, its combat range is 1,000km (620 miles).

That’s a very simplistic way of thinking about combat radius and a very oddly specific number to pick. It sounds like maybe they are using F-35 combat radius as their benchmark?

 

4 hours ago, Strannik said:

From 1,200km (745 miles) away, a salvo of Chinese hypersonic anti-ship missiles is launched skyward. They climb for more than 200km (124 miles), then head for the US warships, whose radars do not detect them until 10 minutes after launch. By then the missiles are just 50km (30 miles) away.

That seems rather fantastical  for several different reasons.

 

The use of satellites for ECM is certainly possible, but there are some huge challenges - power outputs are very low from solar powered satellites, orbital availability requires huge constellations or very specific timing, and each individual satellite’s dwell time at a favorable angle is measured in seconds. I would definitely want to read more details about how they think such an effect could be achieved given all the constraints.

It also seems likely the U.S. will have a LEO based IR tracking system in orbit long before the PRC could create an ECM constellation to counter Aegis ABM radars.

That said, I have little doubt that the PLA can engage a CSG with hypersonic weapons, and it seems likely that hard kill defense measures would be quickly overwhelmed without more effective interceptors than are available now. 

 

[Strannik]

A nice one

 

[urbanoid]

1 minute ago, Strannik said:

A nice one

 

based (literally)

[Josh]

1 hour ago, Strannik said:

A nice one

 

Well that is surprising…I kinda want to see a non Twitter source for that. I’m surprised the Biden administration would go that way and even more surprised Taiwan would allow it.

[Strannik]

https://www.newsweek.com/american-special-forces-train-taiwan-soldiers-penghu-kinmen-china-coast-1868009

[Perun]

interesting topic