War in Ukraine, assorted opinions

[glenn239]

5 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Id suggest the Russians cannot concentrate artillery as easy as Ukraine, for a very simple reason. Logistics. We know the Russian logistic system was pants, even before they were being attacked by Stormshadow or Scalp. There is no reason to believe the situation has improved, and will at length inevitably get worse.

 Ukraine might have some sort of advantage shifting units back and forth due to interior lines of communication, but in terms of artillery systems overall, there can be no doubt but that Russian reserves are far larger and that with each passing day of maybe a half dozen Ukrainian systems being destroyed with little hope of 1:1 replacement, the gap is growing.  

Quote

Counting tube is very interesting, but its only part of the story. Not least that Russia seems unable to attack Ukrainian ammunition dumps, 

It is actually fairly routine for the Russians to blow up this or that brigade ammunition stockpile.  It happens a number of times each week.  Every now and again the Ukrainians hit a Russian dump as well, but it doesn't seem to be as often.

Edited August 14, 2023 by glenn239

[Stuart Galbraith]

Yes, reserves. They have more guns and weapon systems. We know.

Missing the point. The Russians don't seem to be killing Ukrainian systems one for one. We know this, looking at the remarkable longevity of Himars, against the dozens of dead bm21s we have seen. And secondly, if the Russians have difficulty getting the ammunition forward, that greater number of weapons cannot count. We know this, looking at the propensity of Russsian ammo dump fires, and the many small artillery stockpiles they employ. It either ain't getting forward, or if it is, the Ukrainians cruise missile it.

The Ukrainians claimed at one point to have achieved artillery superiority in the area of the offensive. I've no idea if they actually have, just that posion is possible to correlate with greater numbers of weapons in theatre.

[seahawk]

They do not need one for one, when the Ukraine gets replacements by the dozens and Russia takes system out of storage by the hundreds. Lancet is also killing Ukrainian systems in numbers.

[Stuart Galbraith]

OK then, so how many Himars has Russia killed?

Oh look, tumbleweed.

 

[seahawk]

I guess plenty. Or why do you think we are seeing no videos of them any more - well except as lancet targets.

[ink]

We haven't, as far as I'm aware, seen a single Lancet strike on a Himars launcher. Nor, indeed, any other kind of strike.

Now, I suppose we could speculate that Russian cruise missiles have killed Himars sleeping in a warehouse somewhere but (BUT) there is ZERO evidence for that.

[Josh]

I know this is an opinion thread, but basically all casualty estimates are speculation. We don't know who is burning through men and equipment faster. What we do know is that neither side can achieve a decisive advantage on any front (at least so far). For both sides, concentration of forces creates too much opportunity for opponent UAV directed artillery to strike with horrible, corrected accuracy. Additionally, logistical sites have to be dispersed as well, limiting the size of units that can be forward based. So we are seeing fighting that involves a lot of small unit action rather than large combined arms formations. While the static nature of the fight seems rather reminiscent of WWI, the inability to concentrate large formations is actually a new twist in trench style warfare. Offensive actions are very dispersed.

[Colin]

On 8/14/2023 at 12:26 AM, Stuart Galbraith said:

This is the same logic that Europeans used when deciding Japan could not defeat Russia in 1904, because Russia was militarily larger. Its all very well having a larger military, if you arent able to concentrate it at the point of decision, its not very useful.

Id suggest the Russians cannot concentrate artillery as easy as Ukraine, for a very simple reason. Logistics. We know the Russian logistic system was pants, even before they were being attacked by Stormshadow or Scalp. There is no reason to believe the situation has improved, and will at length inevitably get worse.

Counting tube is very interesting, but its only part of the story. Not least that Russia seems unable to attack Ukrainian ammunition dumps, which implies they find it rather easier to stockpile ammunition.

The West also seriously misjudged the Japanese leading up to 1941, despite some people in their organizations saying "Hey pay attention"

[sunday]

On 8/14/2023 at 9:18 AM, Colin said:

I think he was being sincere, he seemed happy with the situation and acknowledge that it had not been the norm, nor was it like that elsewhere. 

ok, thanks.

[Roman Alymov]

On 8/14/2023 at 3:41 PM, Stuart Galbraith said:

We know this, looking at the remarkable longevity of Himars, against the dozens of dead bm21s we have seen.

Very strange comparison, as production price of BM-21 vehicle is comparable to one of single HIMARS missile (not launcher), and taking into account most of BM-21 are produced decades ago by USSR there is hard to talk about their price. Popular anecdote here in Russia is that all attempts to mass-produce good BM-21 Grad decoy failed because all proposed decoys were more expencive than vehicle they were supposed to imitate.

[bojan]

But then again there is way more evidence of destroyed Uragans and Smerchс than Himars, and while Uragans might have been cheap as "long ago paid for" Soviet era thing, Smerchs are not.

Edited August 17, 2023 by bojan

[DB]

Arguably this is true for the HIMARS systems too and most if not all others - they're all taken from inventory so far I believe.

Of course, nothing is free, so you are trading out capability, which needs to be paid for if you want it back.

[JWB]

............... an off-screen crew member stated that there are approximately 48 flyable F-117s in Air Force inventory. 

 

 

[JWB]

 

[Roman Alymov]

On 8/18/2023 at 12:44 AM, bojan said:

But then again there is way more evidence of destroyed Uragans and Smerchс than Himars, and while Uragans might have been cheap as "long ago paid for" Soviet era thing, Smerchs are not.

They are far more nemerous than HIMARS. I think proper analogy to HIMARS is Iskander TEL.

[urbanoid]

I don't think the numerical disparity makes it a bad analogy. 

[JWB]

 

[JWB]

 

[JWB]

 

[JWB]

This was in response to NATO aggression

[bojan]

We can draw such map for US ofc, but thenyou would claim "it is totally not the same".

Edited August 27, 2023 by bojan

[Roman Alymov]

On 8/26/2023 at 4:14 AM, JWB said:

 

I wonder why are you bringing it here - do you really care about Wagner PMC graves? But if you do, you must knoiw this cemetery is to be converted into another design (can't say i like it, but who am i to judge architecture and design)

More about the story Зачем разворотили кладбище ЧВК «Вагнер» под Самарой - 25 августа 2023 - 63.ru

[Stefan Kotsch]

@bojanYou mean that Canada and Mexico will soon be declared ancient parts of the USA?

Edited August 27, 2023 by Stefan Kotsch

[Roman Alymov]

1 minute ago, Stefan Kotsch said:

@bojanYou mean that Canada and Mexico will soon be declared ancient parts of the USA?

Big part of Mexico allready is.... Who cares.

[Stefan Kotsch]

It's 175 years back.  No argument.