Jump to content

Recommended Posts

Posted

Can we end the "is it an offensive" an "is it successful" line in this particular thread? There is an entire 3000 post thread for random thoughts and this one was set up for technical matters. Take it there or ideally, the FFZ.

  • Replies 432
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Posted

I suppose one needs to write very intelligent posts, like Stuart Galbraith, in order to not have his posts relegated to a secondary thread.

Posted
On 8/8/2023 at 8:28 AM, crazyinsane105 said:

Except the article I posted a while ago specifically said that Ukraine has been unable to conduct combined arms operations because it doesn’t have the experience to do so. This is something that takes YEARS to perfect and implement, not a few months of training at whatever location. 
 

Russian artillery dominance is still 7:1 and I have no idea how the West will manage to cover this gap if it has not already after 18 months of conflict.

Millions of mines is also not something the West has an answer for. 

One sector was reporting that they (Ukrainians) have artillery dominance and it was notably different than elsewhere. As for the mines the West pretended that no one would go to such lengths and likley would also fail in their first attempts as well. 

Given that the survival of Ukraine was up for debate not so long ago, to be on a sustained offensive is actually a good thing. Yes things could have gone better. But considering almost every army must go through the learning process, this is likley it.   

Posted (edited)
52 minutes ago, Colin said:

One sector was reporting that they (Ukrainians) have artillery dominance

Where?

Edited to add: do not mind, this is a opinions thread, so no facts needed.

Edited by sunday
Posted

Sunday, you can always ask what a person's opinion is based on.  It's not condescending to do so.  And yes, this is my opinion.

Posted

Tom cooper alleges that the ZSU has achieved artillery superiority on the axis near Robotyne. He claims on the ground sources from Ukraine. It seems possible; this was the sector that the now fired 58th CAA commander was responsible for and he mentioned counter battery as a specific problem.

Posted
1 hour ago, Tim Sielbeck said:

Sunday, you can always ask what a person's opinion is based on.  It's not condescending to do so.  And yes, this is my opinion.

In the proper thread, yes.

Posted
4 hours ago, sunday said:

Where?

Edited to add: do not mind, this is a opinions thread, so no facts needed.

i saw it on twitter, possibly 3 days ago. They were interviewing a Ukrainian Commander, who mention it as a rather unique and different thing to how most of the frontline was. They attributed it to a stepped up campaign to target Russian artillery and the current supply situation.

Posted
4 hours ago, Tim Sielbeck said:

Well, this is a thread about opinions.

Yes, so no sources needed.

Posted
3 hours ago, Colin said:

i saw it on twitter, possibly 3 days ago. They were interviewing a Ukrainian Commander, who mention it as a rather unique and different thing to how most of the frontline was. They attributed it to a stepped up campaign to target Russian artillery and the current supply situation.

What is your estimation of it being propaganda or disinformation?

Posted

It's not inconceivable at all that the Ukrainians can achieve local artillery superiority. It's, what, a 1000 km front? Ukraine likely has now more tube artillery than Western Europe combined, if we count by that metrics alone.

Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

It's not inconceivable at all that the Ukrainians can achieve local artillery superiority. It's, what, a 1000 km front? Ukraine likely has now more tube artillery than Western Europe combined, if we count by that metrics alone.

"It is not inconceivable" is not the same as "It must be real", that is the reason why one asks for proofs.

Edited by sunday
Posted (edited)
12 hours ago, Josh said:

Tom cooper alleges that the ZSU has achieved artillery superiority on the axis near Robotyne. He claims on the ground sources from Ukraine. It seems possible; this was the sector that the now fired 58th CAA commander was responsible for and he mentioned counter battery as a specific problem.

"Bradley Square" is near Robotyne.  I think this refers to some successful Ukrainian artillery hunting tactics using drones and precision weapons in this region over the past weeks.  However, to say that the Ukrainians achieved artillery 'superiority' seems a stretch given that the Ukrainians have suffered massive losses in this sector throughout their offensive.  Here at the 7:35  mark is the situation around Robotyne today.  At 8:22 it describes the Russians using massive amounts of artillery delivered cluster munitions against Ukrainian infantry north of the town.   At the 11:30 mark it returns to this region to describe heavy missile and bomb attacks that amongst other things hit the HQ of the Ukrainian 47th Brigade, it being alleged the strike destroyed the HQ and killed everyone.  

 

Edited by glenn239
Posted

This thread is drifting into facts.

People, this is a thread about opinions!

Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, sunday said:

This thread is drifting into facts.

People, this is a thread about opinions!

The Ukrainians are successfully plinking Russian artillery with drone scouting and precision attacks, but I see zero evidence that any of these activities exceed the amount of hurt the Ukrainians are taking from similar but heavier Russian attacks of the same type coming the other way.  So "superiority" seems a stretch.  Maybe 'parity' at times or something like that.  As discussed yesterday, I think the increased use of Russian D-30 style tow artillery is probably related to its better suitability to facing such attacks.  I doubt even a direct hit by a small Ukrainian drone is going to reliably destroy a field piece, (though it will damage it).  Whereas Russian attacks on Ukrainian artillery tend to be with heavier drones and artillery, so more likely to destroy the piece.

Provided the crews are not killed in such attacks, I picture the Russians just pulling more artillery out of storage to replace destroyed/damaged pieces.  If Ukrainian tactics achieve superiority, surely this is measured in hours until replacement howitzers arrive and are set up.  The Russian artillery park is truly, utterly staggering, and towed artillery apparently does not require the same level of restoration TLC when pulled from reserve stocks. 

I tracked the Oryx losses reports in June and reported them here.  Photographic evidence confirmed the destruction of 36 Russian artillery systems in June.  For comparison, the number of towed artillery pieces in service and storage in Russian reserves is over 7,500 pieces. 

Edited by glenn239
Posted (edited)

  

50 minutes ago, Markus Becker said:

Regarding minefields:

 

One of the issues that was raised during training Ukrainian troops in Europe on the Leopard 2 (and other western AFVs) was doctrine for minefield breaching.

The Ukrainians asked "so what do we do if we hit a minefield"

Their NATO trainers (US/UK/GER) basically said something like "maneuver around it" / "wait for the breachers" because in NATO doctrine for the last 30 years, minefields are known size static fortifications built to block/defend specific tactical chokepoints.

I.e. NATO doctrine minefields are something like 30-40 acres in size (500m wide and maybe 250m deep); you can maneuver around these and breach these relatively easily if you have the equipment.

...because this is the way enlightened militaries use their anti-tank and anti-personnel mines, because otherwise would cause severe civilian (etc) casualties and force endless post-war demining.

Russia never got that memo.

The minefields they've built in Ukraine are pretty much WWII+++ scale minefields, only improved now that you can use FASCAM or rocket-scatterable mines to quickly build up minefields to slow down people (laying mines in the open isn't such a bad thing if your enemy is attacking at night for example); or using explicitly designed heavy equipment to lay mines at an insane rate...

...and for the last nine months the Russian Mobiks have been laying mines in their sectors by hand when they've got nothing to do.

So, the minefields in Ukraine are massive, kilometers deep, and in multiple belts. Basically everything that The Ottawa Treaty of 1997 (aka The Convention on the Prohibition of the Use, Stockpiling, Production and Transfer of Anti-Personnel Mines and on their Destruction) was supposed to stop.

How did it go? Don't get high on your own supply?

Edited by urbanoid
Posted

Artillery superiority is relative thing. Say you have 3 batteries, and opponent has 6. But two of his batteries are on move and two are being rearmed. So at that exact moment you have artillery superiority - 3 vs 2 batteries ready to fire. Etc.

Even "static" frontline has loads of dynamics underneath it.

Posted
On 8/10/2023 at 12:22 AM, sunday said:

What is your estimation of it being propaganda or disinformation?

I think he was being sincere, he seemed happy with the situation and acknowledge that it had not been the norm, nor was it like that elsewhere. 

Posted
On 8/10/2023 at 10:17 AM, sunday said:

"It is not inconceivable" is not the same as "It must be real", that is the reason why one asks for proofs.

This is the same logic that Europeans used when deciding Japan could not defeat Russia in 1904, because Russia was militarily larger. Its all very well having a larger military, if you arent able to concentrate it at the point of decision, its not very useful.

Id suggest the Russians cannot concentrate artillery as easy as Ukraine, for a very simple reason. Logistics. We know the Russian logistic system was pants, even before they were being attacked by Stormshadow or Scalp. There is no reason to believe the situation has improved, and will at length inevitably get worse.

Counting tube is very interesting, but its only part of the story. Not least that Russia seems unable to attack Ukrainian ammunition dumps, which implies they find it rather easier to stockpile ammunition.

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×
×
  • Create New...