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War in Ukraine, assorted opinions


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2 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

The bottleneck on the Russian side is cruise missiles, not launchers.

And by the way making cruise missiles not adapted to underwater launch, but fired from regular trucks (or even static platforms/silos) will reduce complexity of the missiles and boost production numbers. Submarine-launched cruise missiles are too expencive toy to fight this kind of war.

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9 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

I'm sorry but you have completely missed the point. Actually it was genocide of non-Chechen population by ethnic Chechens, that our current Gov is now doing their best to forget (as people responsible for allowing it are still alive and considered "founders of Independent Russia"). Read this for example ( yandex-translated from https://dzen.ru/a/XUNA2PxpqwCuJwvL  )

"How it was: the genocide of Russians in Chechnya
August 1, 2019
Starting from the late 70s-early 80s of the last century, anti-Russian sentiments began to gain strength in the Chechen-Ingush ASSR. With the active assistance of local Soviet-party clans, the core of future separatist organizations was created under the guise of national-cultural societies. At the same time, there was a "nationalization" of the administrative apparatus of the republic, law enforcement agencies and management structures. At the household level, the persecution of the Russian and Cossack population began to gain strength. Russian Russian slogans were increasingly heard: "Russians, get out", "Down with the Russian occupiers". Any crimes against Russians were practically not investigated, generating impunity on the part of nationalist forces. All this forced Russians to leave their places of ancestral residence, to leave for Central Russia. By the end of the 80s, this process had become a landslide. For example, in 1988 about 8 thousand Russians left the city of Grozny, in 1989 - 19 thousand, in 1990 more than 60 thousand already left. The ethnic composition of the Cossack villages of the Naursky, Shelkovsky, Grozny and Sunzhensky districts of the republic has changed significantly. In the 80s, active resettlement of Chechens from the mountainous regions of Chechnya began in these villages. By the early 90s, all conditions were created in Chechnya for the beginning of open terror against the Russian population. Firstly, in Grozny, the majority of leadership positions, especially in law enforcement agencies, were occupied by Chechens. Secondly, the ethnic composition of the cities (Grozny, Gudermes, Argun) has changed towards the predominance of "indigenous inhabitants". In the villages that originally belonged to the Cossacks, a significant percentage (from 20 to 50) of migrants from mountainous areas appeared. Thirdly, mass political and public organizations of anti-Russian orientation were created (the People's Front, the Vainakh Democratic Party led by Zelimkhan Yandarbiyev, the Islamic Way Party led by Bislan Gantamirov, the Green Movement (environmentalists) led by R. Gaitamirov and a number of others), which enjoyed the location of and the support of the local leadership. These organizations still had a few militant groups. And their connection with the "nationalized" bodies of the Ministry of Internal Affairs opened access to firearms. The mine was laid, the timer was ticking. And in 1991, the mine exploded. Chechen separatists were presented with OTR launchers, hundreds of UTSL and UTS, several aircraft (which were converted by Dudaev into light attack aircraft), including three MiG-17 and two MiG-15 fighters, six An-2 aircraft and two Mi-8 helicopters, by the new government led by Yeltsin. Dudaev 's government received:117 R-23 and R-24 aviation missiles, 126 R-60; tens of thousands of GS-23 aircraft shells, 42 T-62 and T-72 tanks, 34 BMP-1 and-2, 30 BTR-70 and BRDM, 44 MT-LB, 942 army vehicles. 18 Grad MLRS and more than 1,000 shells for them, 139 artillery systems, including 30 122-mm D-ZO howitzers and 24 thousand shells for them, as well as 2S1i2SZ self-propelled guns, MT-12 anti-tank guns were presented to the separatists. Dudaev also received five SAMs, 25 different types of missiles, 88 MANPADS; 105 pieces of S-75 missiles, 590 units of anti-tank weapons, including two ATGM "Competition", 24 ATGM "Fagot" complexes, 51 ATGM "Metis" complexes, 113 RPG-7 complexes. What can we say about such nonsense as 50 thousand small arms, or about 150 thousand live grenades! Chechnya was supplied with 27 wagons with ammunition, 1,620 tons of fuel and lubricants. The separatists received about 10 thousand sets of belongings of the former Soviet army, 72 tons of food, 90 tons of army medical equipment. Chechnya, well-armed by the Kremlin, which was playing giveaway with it, became the only subject of the Russian Federation that did not sign any version of the federal treaty at all. In fact, the conflict between the Chechen leadership and Moscow arose back in 1991, but it was not at all in differences regarding the fate of the Russian and Russian-speaking population of Chechnya. Yeltsin wanted only one thing – for Dudaev to acknowledge vassal dependence on him personally, Yeltsin, for Dudaev, roughly speaking, to admit that he burns and kills according to the "Yeltsin truth", after which Dudaev could do anything and as much as he wanted. However, the proud Dzhokhar did not give Yeltsin even a symbolic clue to "save face"... As for the fate of Russians and other peoples in Chechnya, Yeltsin did not care at all. Maybe, even on the contrary, he worried – but not at all like us. Yeltsin seemed to be pushing Dudaev to commit genocide, provoking Chechen extremists to commit genocide. For example, in 1991-1992, internal and federal troops were suddenly withdrawn from the Russian cities of Grozny and Gudermes, the Cossack villages of the Sunzhenskaya and Sredne-Nadterechnaya "lines". Why was this done? Especially considering that the Chechens were armed to the teeth before that? Isn't that provoking a crime? At that time, over 350 thousand residents of the northern half of Chechnya fell under genocide. When they say that Yeltsin "did not show the political will to really restore order in Chechnya," they are lying. Not only did he not restore order, he destroyed it with his own hands. The Sunzha-Grozny-Gudermes purge of 1991-1994 led to the extermination or expulsion of more than a quarter of a million people, which is 70% of the then Slavic population of the former autonomy. About 90 thousand Russian women and children were raped. Up to 10% of the "local Gyaur" are converted to "white slavery". The number of those killed during this period is estimated by the commissions of I. Shafarevich and S. Govorukhin at about 40 thousand.. Russian Russian and Russian-speaking children were killed, their necks were wrung, and the "Ichkerian" authorities and "internal affairs" qualified these victims as victims of "domestic injuries", according to eyewitnesses during the genocide of Russians and Russian-speakers.

The form of genocide against the non-Chechen population of Chechnya was "theoretically justified" in 1990-1992 in a number of his articles in the Chechen language (in Grozny newspapers) by Zelimkhan Yandarbiyev. The "Ichkerian" "first president" with his repeated public arguments on the topic of "wolves and sheep" actively incited the Vainakhs to ethnic cleansing of the Slavs. Movladi Udugov (Chechen "Doctor Goebbels" – according to the same J. Dudaeva) in the spirit of a football reporter in his radio and television comments openly "applauded" the very process of reducing the number of the Russian population in local Cossack villages," writes a competent expert. V. Nazarenko, a simple resident of Grozny, also testifies that the genocide was carried out by the Chechen authorities from above, that this is not some kind of amateur activity of unruly criminals: "I lived in Grozny until November 1992. Dudaev condoned the fact that crimes were openly committed against Russians, and no one from Chechens was punished for this." The famous gymnast, a native of Grozny, Olympic champion Larisa Turishcheva (who at one time moved to live in Kiev) lost all connection with her numerous Sunzha cousins and second cousins in 1992-1993. There is no doubt that a significant part of these relatives of Lyudmila Ivanovna were physically destroyed or taken into "white slavery". There are numerous evidences of mass forcible deprivation of housing stock by ethnicity during the Dudaev-Yandarbiev lawlessness (in 1991-1994) of many "Ichkerian" Slavs. Then about 100 thousand apartments and houses were then seized either by teipovs or criminal Chechen "activists". Moreover, almost exclusively (by 95%) among the Great Russians and Ukrainians who lived in the "Dudaevsky" sector of the former CHI ASSR! The rest was taken from local Armenians and Jews. Russian Russian Cossack chieftain Valery Khrabrikh testifies: "... the genocide of the Russian people in Chechnya" began in 1991, when Dzhokhar Dudayev came to power, and Russians were openly forced out of work and forced to leave their homes by threats and violence. During the exchange of views at the round table meeting at the Rosinformcenter, figures were given according to which 250 Russians were killed in Grozny alone in 1992, only according to extremely understated official data of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Republic, and 300 more people were missing. According to Oleg Makoveev, Chairman of the Board of the Russian community of the Czech Republic, from the beginning of the 90s until 1996, about 300 thousand Russian-speaking residents left Chechnya." Now an Israeli citizen, Jew Vitaly Eremenko in his memoirs "A little about himself and the city of Grozny" writes about it this way: "President Dudaev immediately released all criminals and murderers from prisons – allegedly to protect the young republic of Ichkeria (from whom, it was not specified). Attacks on military units began to seize weapons. For some reason, these parts could not protect themselves. And then Yeltsin withdrew military units from Grozny and from Ichkeria. But at the same time, all weapons, including armored vehicles and aircraft, for some reason remained - allegedly at Dudayev's request to Russia – in order to defend Ichkeria from external enemies – which, Yeltsin did not care… On the outskirts and in the center of the city, both at night and during the day, the cannonade began – the roll call of automatic and machine-gun bursts. Criminal and international terror against the population (including Chechens) began. Robberies and murders on trains. Trains stopped going through Grozny, and then the airport was closed." The flow of creepy stories is incredibly wide. Here are just some eyewitness accounts: A. Kochedykova, Grozny, recalls: "I left Grozny in February 1993 due to constant threats of action from armed Chechens and non-payment of pensions and wages. I left the apartment with all the furniture, two cars, a cooperative garage and left with my husband. In February 1993, Chechens killed my neighbor in the street, born in 1966. Her head was pierced, her ribs were broken, and she was raped. Elena Ivanovna, a war veteran, was also killed from an apartment nearby. In 1993, it became impossible to live there, they killed all around. Cars were blown up right with people. Russians began to be fired from their jobs for no reason. A man born in 1935 was killed in the apartment. Nine stab wounds were inflicted on him, his daughter was raped and killed right there in the kitchen." The head teacher at the 10th school Klimova and all her family members were killed - father, mother and two children. A 12-year-old girl was raped, she was searched for three days, found, but she lost her mind, became crazy. There are hundreds and thousands of such evidences of unbridled lawlessness, but all these crimes went unpunished. Russian youths began to be beaten on the streets of cities, then killed. In 1992, a new stage of the genocide began – local Chechens began forcibly evicting those who were richer from their apartments. On the walls of the houses, the most popular was a mocking inscription: "Do not buy apartments from Masha, they will still be ours." Here are just some randomly selected testimonies from an extensive collection of testimonies of internally displaced persons who fled Chechnya in the period from 1991-1995: M. Khrapova, who lived in Gudermes, told investigators: "In August 1992, our neighbor, R.S. Sarkisyan, and his wife, Z. S. Sarkisyan, were tortured alive burned." t. Alexandrova, from Grozny, recalled: "My daughter was returning home in the evening. Chechens dragged her into a car, beat her, cut her and raped her. We had to leave Grozny." V. Minkoeva, born in 1978, said: "In 1992, a neighboring school was attacked in Grozny. Children (seventh grade) were taken hostage and held for a day. There was a gang rape of the entire class and three teachers. In 1993, my classmate M. was stolen. In the summer of 1993, a man was shot by Chechens on the platform of the railway station in front of my eyes." And here are the words of Fr . Kalchenko: "My employee, a 22-year-old girl, was raped and shot by Chechens in front of my eyes on the street near our work." L. Hotel writes: "Russians were humiliated in all ways. In particular, in Grozny, a poster hung near the House of the Press: "Russians, do not leave, we need slaves." In their address to Russian President Boris Yeltsin, residents of Assinovskaya village of the Sunzhensky district wrote: "We, residents of Assinovskaya village of the Sunzhensky district, are forced to turn to you to provide us with effective assistance in protecting our civil rights, there is lawlessness against Russians, literally destruction, repetition of the genocide of 1921. Currently, we have neither a nation nor a Homeland, we are outcasts from our homes, although we and our ancestors have lived here for more than 200 years. During the last two years , with the arrival of the Chechen police on the territory of art . Assinovskaya is dominated by utter robbery, robbery, there is no public order, complete arbitrariness, anarchy, lack of control ...". Is it necessary to point out that the treatment of dozens of blatant facts of direct bloody genocide remained unanswered? But according to V. Doronina, "In the village of Nizhnedeviuk (Assinovka), armed Chechens raped all the girls and educators in an orphanage." Mothers taught their own sons how best to rape their Slavic classmates. Giving their daughters to the mountain villages in marriage from Grozny or Gudermes, the Chechens gave the groom's relatives as "wedding gifts", Russian slaves. Chechen "kids" actively terrorized Cossack villages, throwing stones at them, not even letting them look out into the street. Imams are a shame and a disgrace! – ignoring the precepts of religion, they seized Orthodox churches and converted them into mosques! It was precisely this "power" that the population of diasporas faced in 1991: Russians, Ukrainians, Armenians, Jews, etc. But before Dudaev, there were only about 17% of Chechens in Grozny (according to the 1989 census), and there were only about 43% of them in the republic! (Meaning, of course, data on the Chechen-Ingush ASSR, the Ingush also diluted the composition of the population). During the years of tsarist and Soviet power in Grozny, especially during the restoration of the oil industry in 1945-1956, it was the Russian, Slavic settlement majority that was formed, always traditionally protected by the Russian authorities. Russians worked in Grozny (because most Chechens are incapable of doing this at all). According to the 1989 census, 1 million 270 thousand people lived in the Chechen-Ingush Republic. Of these, there were 734,000 Chechens, 164,000 Ingush, 294,000 Russians, 15,000 Armenians, 13,000 Ukrainians, and numerous diasporas of Jews and Greeks. It is easy to assess the scale of the humanitarian catastrophe even before the start of military campaigns in Chechnya. Immediately after the self-liquidation of the Chechen-Ingush autonomy in 1991-1992. It was the Yeltsin government, and not Dudaev, that allowed the entire territory to be divided between two Vainakh ethnocratic regimes without taking into account the interests and rights of the indigenous Russian population of the steppe part. Such a decision – to divide the Russian villages between the Chechen and Ingush authorities – was made by the eternally drunk Boris Yeltsin on the initiative of the then Presidential Adviser on National Issues G. Starovoitova. But what are we, however, all the time about the sad? Here is a funny fact, similar to an anecdote: dissident Rostislav Polunov, who lived in Grozny, had to flee from Chechen hospitality, who in Soviet times served time for condemning the deportation of Chechens. As the old man Fonvizin would say – "here are the worthy fruits of malice.""

Thanks for this text. I think that "nationalization" of soviet local administratives in 1980s is understudied and quite interesting in how it happened and what results it brought.

In regards to Ukraine I would much more prefer for Russia to create proper state of law on its territory but that would need leadership that actually wants that and not just keeping same way of doing things which led to such horrors and even trying to export it currently to Ukraine. What is the point in trying to enlarge Russia when you still have such territories like Chechnya with its current administration?

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On 9/16/2023 at 9:01 AM, Stuart Galbraith said:

A submarine that may well have been in the process of being converted to fire Russian cruise missiles.  And besides, you defeat an opponent by making him hurt. Denying him 2 dry docks by blockign whats in them is scarcely to be seen as a bad idea.

It was already capable of firing Kalibrs, all 636.3s are. 

Edited by urbanoid
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On 9/16/2023 at 8:37 PM, Pavel Novak said:

Thanks for this text. I think that "nationalization" of soviet local administratives in 1980s is understudied and quite interesting in how it happened and what results it brought.

It is not correct to limit it to 1980th as it was just final stage of the process that was started by Lenin back in 1920th

"In the Georgian SSR, as of the beginning of the 20s, Georgians were approximately 65% of the population. At the same time, 85% of the top leadership of the republic were Georgians, and in general, the Communist Party of Georgia consisted of Georgians by 72%. Ethnocracy in Georgia took place by 1923" ( see more here https://t.me/historiographe/9033 )

In general, USSR in badly understudied - as its opponents position is "It was evil emoire doomed to fail right from the begining, nothing to look at" and its supporters belive it was sort of perfect paradise on earth destroyed by small group of traitors. Both are obviously wrong. May be only Chineese are doing some kind of real research in scale - at least they have made massive efforts to collect as many archive papers as possible, including low level economic reports etc. But they will hardly share the results. If you are interested in ethnocraty in USSR, i recommend you to follow Alexander Dukov ( https://t.me/historiographe )

     By the way this ethnocraties were not only anti-Russian as one might think - but against all "non-locals" (even if in fact they were quite local - see suppression of Abkhaz and Ossetians in Soviet Georgia, Azeris in Armenia and later Armenians in Soviet AZ, local Poles in Baltics etc.)

On 9/16/2023 at 8:37 PM, Pavel Novak said:

In regards to Ukraine I would much more prefer for Russia to create proper state of law on its territory but that would need leadership that actually wants that and not just keeping same way of doing things which led to such horrors and even trying to export it currently to Ukraine. What is the point in trying to enlarge Russia when you still have such territories like Chechnya with its current administration?

Russian elite was doing their best to avoid doing anything in Ukraine (and elsewhere  - see how long it took to step into Syria, almost untill it was too late). Luckily, "our enemies will newer betray us"(c) Grubnik, and West made their best to make inaction impossible. But "enlarge Russia" is wrong description - as process of enlargement of Russia in the territory of what is now Ukraine  is mostly completed under Catherine the Great back in XVIII. 

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9 hours ago, urbanoid said:

It was already capable of firing Kalibrs, all 636.3s are. 

I quite believe you. I read something a few days ago that said the contrary, but as its an improved Kilo, on reflection I simply cant think why it wouldnt.

So, the Russians lost one more Kalibr flinger. This is hardly a waste of a stormshadow.

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On 9/16/2023 at 4:45 PM, glenn239 said:

The bottleneck on the Russian side is cruise missiles, not launchers.

Excuse me Glenn, but werent you the one telling me that they had no shortage of missiles and launchers?

Edited by Stuart Galbraith
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43 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

I quite believe you. I read something a few days ago that said the contrary, but as its an improved Kilo, on reflection I simply cant think why it wouldnt.

So, the Russians lost one more Kalibr flinger. This is hardly a waste of a stormshadow.

Also, from 2015:

'Russia fires Kalibr missiles at IS positions from sub deployed in the Mediterranean

"It was the first time that Kalibr cruise missiles were fired by the Rostov-on-Don submarine from the Mediterranean Sea," Russian defense minister reports'

https://tass.com/defense/842471

I agree, the Ukrainians would gladly exchange a Storm Shadow for the enemy submarine any day of the week and twice on Sunday.

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1 hour ago, urbanoid said:

Also, from 2015:

'Russia fires Kalibr missiles at IS positions from sub deployed in the Mediterranean

"It was the first time that Kalibr cruise missiles were fired by the Rostov-on-Don submarine from the Mediterranean Sea," Russian defense minister reports'

https://tass.com/defense/842471

I agree, the Ukrainians would gladly exchange a Storm Shadow for the enemy submarine any day of the week and twice on Sunday.

Only an idiot would not consider the exchange of one or several Storm Shadows for a submarine as anything else than  a very good exchange.

Edited by Mistral
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1 hour ago, Mistral said:

Only an idiot would not consider the exchange of one or several Storm Shadows for a submarine as anything else than  a very good exchange.

It is wrong alternative. Right alternative is "10 Stormshadows in exchange for old landing craft and deactivated submarine in drydock" vs. "10 Stormshadows in exchange for strategic bridge destruction of which could help your groundtroops to move forward".

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4 hours ago, Ssnake said:

"...for all practical matters we can consider Russian supply of missiles and artillery munition as 'infinite'"...

Tsk. You're supposed to put attributions on quotations. So, just to clarify for me, who was it that said that?

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1 hour ago, Roman Alymov said:

It is wrong alternative. Right alternative is "10 Stormshadows in exchange for old landing craft and deactivated submarine in drydock" vs. "10 Stormshadows in exchange for strategic bridge destruction of which could help your groundtroops to move forward".

It's so nice to see what the Russian translation of " 'tis but a scratch" is.

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4 hours ago, urbanoid said:

Also, from 2015:

'Russia fires Kalibr missiles at IS positions from sub deployed in the Mediterranean

"It was the first time that Kalibr cruise missiles were fired by the Rostov-on-Don submarine from the Mediterranean Sea," Russian defense minister reports'

https://tass.com/defense/842471

I agree, the Ukrainians would gladly exchange a Storm Shadow for the enemy submarine any day of the week and twice on Sunday.

I'm sure the MOD would give more if they keep killing targets like this.

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6 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Excuse me Glenn, but weren't you the one telling me that they had no shortage of missiles and launchers?

I can't recall us ever talking about cruise missile launch systems before.  This is a bottleneck you invented several days ago in order to suggest why bombing a submarine in the middle of a land war matters.  In terms of cruise missiles, we had discussed Russian production and stockpiles in the past, but at no time has anyone here ever suggested that the Russians had or have enough to meet their targeting requirements.  It's mainly been about whether their production is increasing, and to what level of daily production, and if they can increase production by building smaller or cheaper models type thing.

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8 hours ago, DB said:

Tsk. You're supposed to put attributions on quotations. So, just to clarify for me, who was it that said that?

It was a direct reply to Stuart's question to Glenn, the context is pretty clear. I didn't bother going back a thousand pages to find the exact quote, but he wrote it in more than one post.

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2 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

That's nice, but as i have noted few pages ago, almost ANY damage to submarine is unrepairable in Black Sea conditions, as there is no proper repair plant for it. 

There are ships that can transport submarines, I don't think it would be economical to repair Rostov on Don though, looks like a write-off.

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Just now, urbanoid said:

There are ships that can transport submarines, I don't think it would be economical to repair Rostov on Don though, looks like a write-off.

It looks better than sumbarine after dry dock fire (see К-84 Екатеринбург, and other cases) but there is hardly any sence in wasting resources on it now. We need ground launchers, not submarines.

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1 hour ago, Ssnake said:

It was a direct reply to Stuart's question to Glenn, the context is pretty clear. I didn't bother going back a thousand pages to find the exact quote, but he wrote it in more than one post.

I've never considered Russian missile or ammunition stocks to be functionally 'infinite' because we've no idea here what they actually have in terms of stocks available.  I have considered that Russian artillery systems to be functionally bottomless because they have over 20,000 of them and lose only a small part of that each month.   

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11 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

That's nice, but as i have noted few pages ago, almost ANY damage to submarine is unrepairable in Black Sea conditions, as there is no proper repair plant for it. 

Something about wasting assets on a submarine that is not in commission. it was the implied point that therefore it doesn't matter.

Every asset destroyed in this war increases the time and cost for Russia to recover from this disaster of their own making, and every ruble spent on the war and the rebuilding of their military assets is a ruble not spent on improving the lives of Russians. This is of course the fault of the "appeasement of the west party".

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14 minutes ago, DB said:

Every asset destroyed in this war increases the time and cost for Russia to recover from this disaster of their own making, and every ruble spent on the war and the rebuilding of their military assets is a ruble not spent on improving the lives of Russians. This is of course the fault of the "appeasement of the west party".

That is weird take, taking into account amount of "rubles"  (actually, USD) were going to Western bank assets etc. Now, if we imagine repairing the submarine, welders and electricians in Sevastopol or Novorossiysk will get Roubles, not waiters or sales assistants in London/Milan/Marbelia/Miami. That is how this war is changing economy of Russia.

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