Time for the West to hire Wagner?

[On the way]

The enemy of my enemy is my friend? Since Wagner is already deep in Russia territory and on the way to Moscow, they are in the rear of the Russian forces. Lots of soft targets for them to destroy. $100K for blowing up Russian army supply depots, and artillery and SAM positions? $1 million for taking over an Russian Air Force airbase and destroying all the fighters and helicopters there? Let Wagner wreak havoc behind the front lines on behalf of Ukraine, pay them well. Russian forces fighting in the front lines are not going to appreciate a hostile force at their back. They will be looking to pull back at the earliest opportunity. Could be a positive outcome Ukraine.

[sunday]

Of course not!

Plenty of people, both in this Grate Sight, and outside, has emphatically stated they are the real Nazis in this conflict, not the Azov battalion, no sirree...

We all know Ukraine, nor the Western powers would even think of employing Nazis, would not they?

[Dawes]

Remarkable and (generally) unforeseen series of events. Although I wouldn't write off Putin just yet. He has pretty good survival instincts.

[urbanoid]

31 minutes ago, On the way said:

The enemy of my enemy is my friend?

Sometimes the enemy of my enemy is just another enemy.

[Josh]

Wagner is just another collection of assholes, not a friend. If anything the current circumstances point to them not being reliable in any way.

but the bigger picture is that I don’t expect any of them to survive unless they sign a MoD contract.

[On the way]

8 hours ago, sunday said:

Of course not!

Plenty of people, both in this Grate Sight, and outside, has emphatically stated they are the real Nazis in this conflict, not the Azov battalion, no sirree...

We all know Ukraine, nor the Western powers would even think of employing Nazis, would not they?

Oh please. Do the Ukrainians care if its Nazis, Fascists, Communists, Socialists, etc. killing Russian soldiers and shooting down their planes and helo? Even before this war, the Ukrainians were no choirboys themselves when it came to race relations. You can call Wagner Nazis or whatever, that's just your opinion.

[sunday]

2 hours ago, On the way said:

Oh please. Do the Ukrainians care if its Nazis, Fascists, Communists, Socialists, etc. killing Russian soldiers and shooting down their planes and helo? Even before this war, the Ukrainians were no choirboys themselves when it came to race relations. You can call Wagner Nazis or whatever, that's just your opinion.

"They are Nazi sons of a bitch, but they are our Nazi sons of a bitch"

[Roman Alymov]

13 hours ago, On the way said:

The enemy of my enemy is my friend? Since Wagner is already deep in Russia territory and on the way to Moscow, they are in the rear of the Russian forces. Lots of soft targets for them to destroy. $100K for blowing up Russian army supply depots, and artillery and SAM positions? $1 million for taking over an Russian Air Force airbase and destroying all the fighters and helicopters there? Let Wagner wreak havoc behind the front lines on behalf of Ukraine, pay them well. Russian forces fighting in the front lines are not going to appreciate a hostile force at their back. They will be looking to pull back at the earliest opportunity. Could be a positive outcome Ukraine.

Note that according to Strelkov, entire Russian involvement in Syria, and to great extent actions in Africa, are attempts to please West (specifically US) and "beg pardon" for Putin and Russian elite in general after 2014. So effectively Wagner PMC was allready hired by West (but on Russian taxpayer's expence).

    But the problem is Wagner troops (not its "political" leadership) are mostly people who hate West, for good reasons - and also hate Russian pro-Western elite. So i see no way for your plan to work. 

[Stuart Galbraith]

One might suggest that the West would have been perfectly happy to see Assad fall. If that was pleasing the west, Russia wasnt listening. Again.

[Roman Alymov]

1 hour ago, sunday said:

"They are Nazi sons of a bitch, but they are our Nazi sons of a bitch"

Note this photo of shaved guy with tatoos is not  of similarity with Dmitry "Wagner" Utkin who is former GRU SOF officer  - and it is widely known that having any tatoos are strictly prohibited for this men (who are supposed to operate under cover and without any way to identify them dead or alive). A lot of prople were turned down on SOF selection because of their youth-time tatoos...

[sunday]

23 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

Note this photo of shaved guy with tatoos is not  of similarity with Dmitry "Wagner" Utkin who is former GRU SOF officer  - and it is widely known that having any tatoos are strictly prohibited for this men (who are supposed to operate under cover and without any way to identify them dead or alive). A lot of prople were turned down on SOF selection because of their youth-time tatoos...

Tell that to the Russophobics.

Edited June 25, 2023 by sunday

[Roman Alymov]

9 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

One might suggest that the West would have been perfectly happy to see Assad fall. If that was pleasing the west, Russia wasnt listening. Again.

Note it is Strelkov's point of view, and he used to see West 10-foot-tall, well informed and competent (only recently Strelkov, under pressure of repeatedly failing own predictions on international situation, have to some extent softened his position). Not surprising he see Assad as another Western puppet (or potential puppet) - to some degree there is some truth in it, as former London oftalmologist married to Cuty banker are hardly match for traditional image of anti-Western national leader, i well remember the time when Assad and Syria were promoted by BBC as sort of showcase of pro-Western ME country and tourist attraction.

Below is article analysing Strelkov's predictions on Syria (wrigtten back in 2016, so now we know that author was right and Strelkow was wrong, at least in some of his statements) (Yandex-translated from https://gosh100.livejournal.com/175267.html?ysclid=ljbd3zbyhd90182391 )

"The failure of Strelkov's "analytics" on Syria
Now I have argued with a friend about the competence of Strelkov, who, in my opinion, has been carrying some kind of nonsence about Russia's actions in Syria in recent months. In short, his position is as follows - "we got into an insane adventure with insufficient forces, in which it is impossible to win."
It is still possible to agree with this opinion expressed in this form or not, but what grounds does he have to say so?
How does Strelkov argue his point of view? And what do we see in reality?

Enough time has already passed to be able to compare what Stelkov predicted and what is actually happening.
And you can see that his estimates differ from reality exactly the opposite.

Here is his interview from September 25, even before the group was introduced (about Syria there from the 36th minute to the 55th)

I will cite some of Strelkov's statements, which especially struck me with their absurdity, with their comments:

The Syrian army is losing, the second largest Syrian city of Raqqa has been abandoned

This is a pretty stupid lie, the second largest city in Syria is Damascus. The first is Aleppo. It seems that Igor Ivanovich does not even roughly understand the geography and military situation in Syria.

In order to at least fix the situation, we need tens of thousands, a full-scale contingent of [Russian troops]...
we are catastrophically late..
They sent a fake contingent at a stage when it is impossible to win the war!

This assessment is grossly erroneous - as practice has shown, only aviation and assistance with advisers and weapons were enough to turn the tide of the war.

The mobilization potential of the Assad regime has been exhausted, the army is demoralized and it is absolutely useless to support it with precision weapons

It turned out that Russia's participation raised the morale of the pro-Assad forces, an influx of volunteers went to them.
The first victories went immediately, and this in turn further increases their combat capability

To win in Syria, we need to introduce a 100,000-strong combined arms army, with tanks, etc., as a minimum.

Bullshit. See above.

What if we just stupidly bomb everyone, as the Americans do?
We will not be allowed to bomb – the first strike on the civilian population will cause such a cry in the world! Americans can do anything they want, but no one will allow us to do that. The first civilian killed will be presented as a "casus belli" for a lot of people.

Bullshit. We bomb whoever we want and anywhere to choose from, just like the Americans do
In the West, of course, they are shouting about the death of mirnyak, but this is just white noise.

How to supply our 100 thousand amia? By sea, through the straits? It's insanely expensive.

Oh! This is an important misunderstanding of Strelkov from which his further mistakes follow.
After all, he complains in the video that we do not have overland delivery routes to Syria,
i.e. he sincerely believes that supplies by sea are more expensive than by land. He just doesn't know that sea transportation is the cheapest and most convenient way of transportation. It is even more profitable than the railway. Otherwise, right now the whole world would be transporting goods from China to Europe only via the Trans-Siberian Railway. However, no, they are transported by long ways on bulk carriers around the world. Even through the Northern Sea Route they are trying to carry, through the ice! This is sometimes more profitable than by land on the railway.

So the supply of Syria, even from St. Petersburg, through Gibraltar, will not be a particular problem in the event of the closure of the straits.

It will be necessary to storm huge cities.
Raqqa is a huge city! 500-600 thousand people, or even a million. How to storm it if the Syrian army can't even clean up Aleppo?

Did you fall from an oak tree, Igor Ivanovich? The population of Raqqa before the war was 182 thousand .. In Aleppo - ten times more.
Raqqa is a small town like Kolomna near Moscow. Even smaller probably in area. See the first comment.

The US can at any time arrange for us a dollar at 200 with a click, a computer glitch, easily.
In these conditions, it is impossible to wage a serious war.

No, Igor Ivanovich.
With your kindergarten ideas about economics, geography and computers, it is impossible to seriously discuss these things.

Another option is to introduce special forces, including PMCs and some number of aircraft, and when all this does not work, all this will be taken out of there ...
There is no one to fight with, there are no allies, only the remnants of Assad's army for us. Everyone else is against it!...
A crazy adventure!

In fact, Iran, Iraq, Lebanese Hezbollah and a significant part of the Kurds are also behind us.
All together, they are coping quite successfully with our support, as practice has shown.
A crazy adventure, Igor Ivanovich, is to make predictions and harsh judgments on a topic in which you have no ear or snout.

It's okay that everything was said before entering the war. And pretty quickly it turned out that everything was happening quite differently from what Strelkov had assumed. Well, everyone can make mistakes - the main thing is to learn from mistakes.

Do you think he has adjusted his opinion at least a little?
Not a drop!

Here are Strelkov's annealing already from October 20.
Again, all the same frantic screams in the style of "everything is gone, the plaster is removed, the client is leaving":
----------------------------------------------------------------
The war in Syria will end with the defeat and disintegration of Russia, – Girkin
Neither Russia nor Assad has a chance to win in Syria. All this will end badly for the Russian Federation – a new "Afghanistan" and the collapse of Russia.
As stated by Igor Girkin in his commentary, which published the resource of Donbass separatists "Summaries of Novorossiya", the Russian Armed Forces in Syria are not enough, not that the share of attacks on ISIS, but even in order to protect the territories controlled by Assad from counterattacks by the rebels.
According to Girkin, Russia will get bogged down in this hopeless war, in which there is no chance of winning, since the war is not against ISIS, but actually against the Sunnis. All this will end badly for the Russian Federation – a new "Afghanistan" and the collapse of Russia.
We suggest you read this comment in full. After all, for once this person says truthful things, adequately assessing the situation.
"It will take 4 years to wait until Assad loses 3/4 of the territory and half of the population, the economy will be destroyed "to trash", and the army will not even be able to effectively defend what is left – that is, when Assad will be on the very verge of disaster and without any hope of ultimate victory. And then we get in with 50 planes, 26 missiles and 2 thousand people and declare that now "I will defeat everyone!" That is, with forces insufficient even to properly maintain the status quo, not to mention a "military victory."
More than 90% of Russian airstrikes fall not on ISIS at all, but on Jabhat al-Nusra, the FSA, etc. groups that are not related to ISIS, or even, like Nusra, actively feuding with it. And it hasn't even reached ISIS yet.
Two villages and half a city block in two weeks is not an offensive yet. This, in military parlance, is nothing more than "improving positions."
Now the United States and the Saudis will throw more MANPADS and ATGMS to the militants, the militants will adapt to the factor of the constant presence of a few Russian aircraft in the air and everything will go back on track ... that is, the Assad army will again go on the defensive, periodically surrendering one important strategic point after another – like all the last 2 years.

Who else is there with us? A-a-a, of course, I forgot… Hezbollah! And the "Guardians of the Islamic Revolution"… Well, yes, well, yes… They have been helping Syria for 4 years (no kidding – they help and bear serious losses). But for some reason, even with their help, the Syrian army surrendered one province after another.
Tribal and religious-communal militias, at best, are able to control their area as "security detachments". But they can't even defend it against a full-fledged enemy attack without external support. Especially – to advance. As far as I know, there are only a few units and formations in the Syrian regular army that are suitable for offensive operations. They are trying to attack, having as "shock meat" our Russian PMCs, Hezbollah and units of the Iranian IRGC.
The ratio of forces and means is incommensurable. Most of the population is disloyal to Assad. And almost all of Syria's neighbors (Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Jordan) are actually participating in the war, being "rear areas" for various Islamist groups. For comparison, Pakistan was the same base for the Mujahideen of Afghanistan – and the USSR, with all its desire, could not stop the supply of weapons and replacements. Moreover, both there and here behind the back of the regional enemies of the central government is the United States with its "endless printing press" and gigantic material resources. We have to compete with our "Western partners" on the battlefield, where we have practically no chance with "limited participation". And we have neither the strength nor the determination for a "total war". Defeat in Syria is thus a foregone conclusion.
No one will want to lose. But if it is expected for quite objective reasons, then why not say it before the maximum amount of forces and means is involved in a previously lost war?
It is impossible to save Assad with the available forces. You can only prolong the agony. Because the "partners" will not allow this to be done. But they will do everything so that we suffer maximum economic (and ideally human) losses from their intervention.
It is theoretically possible to win with sufficient forces in Syria. But an oligarchic state with a hedonistic "elite" is not ready to make the serious efforts, sacrifices and risks that this will require. And, moreover, to carry out mobilization activities. Therefore, full-fledged intervention is impossible. It is for this reason, as I understand it, that there was a refusal to resolve the "Ukrainian crisis", which is much more important for national and state interests.
/---/
As we already know now - no MANPADS were received, no ATGMS, no unlimited resources were affected. Both ISIS and the opposition are suffering heavy losses in key territories, people and resources. Everything happens the other way around. Drove our city, in short.

To whom how, but personally to me such development of events was obvious at the beginning of October. 

Although it is too early to celebrate the victory, of course, complications are possible, but it is precisely as a reaction to our victorious campaign (with the same Turkey, the turks can go far) - but in my opinion it is obvious that all of the above skeptical forecasts of Strelkov have failed.
And he showed himself as an absolutely incompetent "expert". It's a pity, I used to consider him a much more adequate person. And there it is, as it turned out. The worst thing is that he, like a stuck gramophone, continues to carry defeatist nonsense, regardless of the situation on the fronts and does not admit that he was wrong earlier."

 

 

[sunday]

4 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

One might suggest that the West would have been perfectly happy to see Assad fall.

And have a moderate, ISIS-like government in Syria, moderately beheading Christians, and moderately slaving Kurds?

Stuart, Stuart, you look like a strange defender of what is good for humanity.

Edited June 25, 2023 by sunday

[glenn239]

2 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

 

    But the problem is Wagner troops (not its "political" leadership) are mostly people who hate West, for good reasons - and also hate Russian pro-Western elite. So i see no way for your plan to work. 

Wagner just murdered Russian servicemembers in combat yesterday.  How was it that Russians in the street were cheering? 

Edited June 25, 2023 by glenn239

[Roman Alymov]

17 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

Wagner just murdered Russian servicemembers in combat yesterday.  How was it that Russians in the street were cheering? 

"Wagner" is not one man but big group of people, and huge majority of this people have demonstrated not only high discipline, but but also restrain in situation when they were declared de-facto state criminals and opposed by both regular troops and, to significant degree, population who were in "WDF" situation about their actions. That is why this fighters are now cheered as heroes by crowds. 

      Both Russian Army and population have proven yesterday that they are far more resilient and patriotic than Russian elite: while governors and officials were panicking, frontline units were fighting enemy as if nothing happened, population was carrying on normal life and was not ready to side with what they see as revolt and stab in the back to those on the front.

      By the way note Khodorkovsky have openly supported Prigozhin - making support of this man loosing few extra points....

[Mighty_Zuk]

17 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

Note this photo of shaved guy with tatoos is not  of similarity with Dmitry "Wagner" Utkin who is former GRU SOF officer  - and it is widely known that having any tatoos are strictly prohibited for this men (who are supposed to operate under cover and without any way to identify them dead or alive). A lot of prople were turned down on SOF selection because of their youth-time tatoos...

Ahh yes, because for Russia, uniformity is the name of the game, and an all-capable elite doesn't exist.

[On the way]

On 6/25/2023 at 4:37 AM, Stuart Galbraith said:

One might suggest that the West would have been perfectly happy to see Assad fall. If that was pleasing the west, Russia wasnt listening. Again.

U would think that the West would have learned by now that if you let Arab dictators fall, eg. Ghadafi, Sadam Hussein, Mubarak, etc. you might not like who steps into the vacuum to replace them.

[Stuart Galbraith]

It could hardly be worse than a man who uses chemical weapons on civilians.

[On the way]

On 6/24/2023 at 3:54 PM, urbanoid said:

Sometimes the enemy of my enemy is just another enemy.

On another day, he might be that. But today when he is shooting down your enemy's helos and planes, the is a friend.

[On the way]

On 6/24/2023 at 4:06 PM, Josh said:

Wagner is just another collection of assholes, not a friend. If anything the current circumstances point to them not being reliable in any way.

but the bigger picture is that I don’t expect any of them to survive unless they sign a MoD contract.

Wagner are mercenaries. They are reliant on money, hence they are professional soldiers. They will perform as long as you pay them........ which makes them 100% more reliable then regular Russian army units. And why would they sign a MOD contract? The odds of them getting paid is about the same as the odds of a  conscripted Russian getting paid.

[On the way]

On 6/25/2023 at 7:18 AM, Roman Alymov said:

"Wagner" is not one man but big group of people, and huge majority of this people have demonstrated not only high discipline, but but also restrain in situation when they were declared de-facto state criminals and opposed by both regular troops and, to significant degree, population who were in "WDF" situation about their actions. That is why this fighters are now cheered as heroes by crowds. 

      Both Russian Army and population have proven yesterday that they are far more resilient and patriotic than Russian elite: while governors and officials were panicking, frontline units were fighting enemy as if nothing happened, population was carrying on normal life and was not ready to side with what they see as revolt and stab in the back to those on the front.

      By the way note Khodorkovsky have openly supported Prigozhin - making support of this man loosing few extra points....

Yeah whatever. Unless u telling me that the residents of Rostov On Don were faking it, it sure looked like they like having Wagner forces in their town. So it proves nothing about the Russian population. I didn't see Moscow residents volunteer to fight the oncoming Wagner group. Or manning checkpoints or filling sandbags etc. As for the Russian army, how patriotic can you be when you let Wagner stroll into a key city like Rostov and take over your military HQ without firing a bullet against them?

[On the way]

Right now, if I were the Western forces, NATO, USA, or even Ukraine, I would set up a secret channel with Prigozhin. And tell him the plain truth. That whatever deal Belorus brokered for him with Putin, is not worth the paper its signed on. As soon as he and his people are in Belorus, there will be assassination attempts coming at him left right and center. Its better if he does a deal with the West. Occupy Rostov and prevent regular russian army from using it, and there will be $1 million a day deposited into his swiss bank account for as long as he holds it. Replenish his ammo and supplies from russian army stocks in rostov, recruit from russian army there, hold off russian army attempts to recapture rostov, and he will receive $1 million into his swiss bank account for every day he holds it. And if the russians do take rostov back, he will be offered asylum in any number of western countries. I think that is a better deal then walking into a trap in Belarus.

[Roman Alymov]

1 hour ago, On the way said:

Right now, if I were the Western forces, NATO, USA, or even Ukraine, I would set up a secret channel with Prigozhin. And tell him the plain truth. That whatever deal Belorus brokered for him with Putin, is not worth the paper its signed on. As soon as he and his people are in Belorus, there will be assassination attempts coming at him left right and center. Its better if he does a deal with the West. Occupy Rostov and prevent regular russian army from using it, and there will be $1 million a day deposited into his swiss bank account for as long as he holds it. Replenish his ammo and supplies from russian army stocks in rostov, recruit from russian army there, hold off russian army attempts to recapture rostov, and he will receive $1 million into his swiss bank account for every day he holds it. And if the russians do take rostov back, he will be offered asylum in any number of western countries. I think that is a better deal then walking into a trap in Belarus.

Thank you for that excelent example of Western arrogance. 

[Roman Alymov]

2 hours ago, On the way said:

Yeah whatever. Unless u telling me that the residents of Rostov On Don were faking it, it sure looked like they like having Wagner forces in their town. So it proves nothing about the Russian population. I didn't see Moscow residents volunteer to fight the oncoming Wagner group. Or manning checkpoints or filling sandbags etc. As for the Russian army, how patriotic can you be when you let Wagner stroll into a key city like Rostov and take over your military HQ without firing a bullet against them?

See above, both Wagner soldiers and Russian Regular Army soldiers are seen by population as heroes and defenders (not to mention they are not some separate cast but their family members and friends).

[Roman Alymov]

2 hours ago, On the way said:

Wagner are mercenaries. They are reliant on money, hence they are professional soldiers. They will perform as long as you pay them........ which makes them 100% more reliable then regular Russian army units. And why would they sign a MOD contract? The odds of them getting paid is about the same as the odds of a  conscripted Russian getting paid.

Seems like you have not seen Andrey "Murz" Morozov interview from my post in another thread. I strongly advise you to familiarize yourself with the subject before discussing it