The Kremlin is burning?

[Josh]

12 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

Agreed.  In terms of taking out early warning radars, the Russians can coordinate with the Chinese to neutralize any damage there while the war goes on.  But if there is a threat to nuclear stockpiles, then the only logical response would be to disburse the stockpiles to combat units.

There seemingly is nothing China cannot do!

In actually, Chinas early warning system is, surprisingly, arranged around China and would be of no use to south western Russia. Russia does have it’s own satellite early warning system now, at least partially.

[glenn239]

1 hour ago, ink said:

Judging by the Russian reaction to Himars, ATACMS, Storm Shadow, etc., strikes ... Their reaction would have been similar to the West's re: those assassinations. In other words, a lot of hot air and not much more.

I think you might be underestimating the accumulated baggage effect to all of this past history.  That is to say, it might look like its a bunch of hot air signifying nothing, but what's actually going on is that the big well of putting up with shit is being filled by both sides, and the willingness to tolerate future shit without response is diminishing.

 

[ink]

1 hour ago, Josh said:

Ukraine is not Russia.

 

Has any NATO system been used against Russian oil infrastructure?

But I think the response would have been sanctions, as a practical matter. I think an assassination by Russia agents inside the U.S. using chemical weapons would have set a higher bar.

On reflection, I think the oil infrastructure was probably not the best example. Even so, Western systems have been hitting Russian positions in Crimea and Donbas. So the parallel stands.

[urbanoid]

2 hours ago, ink said:

On reflection, I think the oil infrastructure was probably not the best example. Even so, Western systems have been hitting Russian positions in Crimea and Donbas. So the parallel stands.

The West doesn't consider either to be Russian.

[Josh]

1 hour ago, ink said:

On reflection, I think the oil infrastructure was probably not the best example. Even so, Western systems have been hitting Russian positions in Crimea and Donbas. So the parallel stands.

The west does not consider those territories Russia. As such I think the equivalent would be arming insurgents in Iraq or Afghanistan. I suspect there would be sanctions and that would have been it. The USSR armed US opponents previously, as did the U.S.

[ink]

5 hours ago, urbanoid said:

The West doesn't consider either to be Russian.

 

5 hours ago, Josh said:

The west does not consider those territories Russia. As such I think the equivalent would be arming insurgents in Iraq or Afghanistan. I suspect there would be sanctions and that would have been it. The USSR armed US opponents previously, as did the U.S.

Yes, ok, good point guys. 

[Stuart Galbraith]

11 hours ago, Josh said:

There seemingly is nothing China cannot do!

In actually, Chinas early warning system is, surprisingly, arranged around China and would be of no use to south western Russia. Russia does have it’s own satellite early warning system now, at least partially.

They build Siebel ferries under a licence apparently.

[Stuart Galbraith]

13 hours ago, ink said:

Oh, I didn't realise there had been an actual directive. Has there been? Or is it all just statements made by the White House to DC-based journos?

Well best read the following and see if you can understand the US position, because I dont understand it.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/22/us/politics/white-house-ukraine-weapons-russia.html

Why? I think it was the corrosive, inept and bloody clueless leadership of one Mark Milley that led us down this road.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-shouldnt-use-us-arms-inside-russia-us-general-says-2023-05-25/

 

[Stuart Galbraith]

There was also this I found today. Overlooking Shoigu was not fired, but just promoted out the way, there does seem to be some significant efforts to combat corruption in the Russian military.

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/putin-patience-snapped-insiders-marvel-040013117.html

The question that has to be asked, are they tackling corruption, or is this a soft purge underway?

[ink]

40 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Well best read the following and see if you can understand the US position, because I dont understand it.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/22/us/politics/white-house-ukraine-weapons-russia.html

Why? I think it was the corrosive, inept and bloody clueless leadership of one Mark Milley that led us down this road.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-shouldnt-use-us-arms-inside-russia-us-general-says-2023-05-25/

 

It doesn't seem so unreasonable. The US is getting embroiled in a conflict where one of the sides has the world's largest nuclear arsenals. Seems sensible that some ground rules be worked out beforehand, doesn't it?

Had the Russians decided to support Saddam or Gaddafi, you'd hope they too would have some limits worked.out in advance. Indeed, when they stepped in to rescue Assad, there were clearly some red lines (which is why they were mostly able to operate with relative success in the same warzone as the Americans).

[Stuart Galbraith]

If thats the case, why arm Ukraine at all? Why no sit on the sidelines in 2022, and watch Russia devour it? One cant make the argument helping Ukraine is dangerous, but we can tolerate that, but firing a weapon over the Russian borders invites nuclear war. Its a trivial escalation. And considering how many times Russian missiles have fallen over NATO borders without a retaltion, a somewhat absurd and artificial distinction for the white house to make.

[ink]

41 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

If thats the case, why arm Ukraine at all? Why no sit on the sidelines in 2022, and watch Russia devour it? One cant make the argument helping Ukraine is dangerous, but we can tolerate that, but firing a weapon over the Russian borders invites nuclear war. Its a trivial escalation. And considering how many times Russian missiles have fallen over NATO borders without a retaltion, a somewhat absurd and artificial distinction for the white house to make.

Well, you've got to have some rules, otherwise war becomes anarchy 😉

[Stuart Galbraith]

If war has rules, then why are the Russians bombing publishing houses and shopping malls?

 

[ink]

1 hour ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

If war has rules, then why are the Russians bombing publishing houses and shopping malls?

 

I genuinely don't know how to respond to that.

[glenn239]

18 hours ago, Josh said:

There seemingly is nothing China cannot do!

In actually, Chinas early warning system is, surprisingly, arranged around China and would be of no use to south western Russia. Russia does have it’s own satellite early warning system now, at least partially.

The Chinese have a global satellite early warning system, do they not?

[glenn239]

2 hours ago, ink said:

I genuinely don't know how to respond to that.

Stuart wants a world war, so all his logic, all arguments, everything, is always in the direction to increasing the chances of world war.  That's who he is, that's what he wants.

[urbanoid]

10 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

Stuart wants a world war, so all his logic, all arguments, everything, is always in the direction to increasing the chances of world war.  That's who he is, that's what he wants.

"Glenn wants the West to get cucked by every smelly, anti-Western little shit, all his logic and arguments point to a conclusion that it's a scenario he desires."

 

See how easy it is to say what the other's motivations are?

[Josh]

1 hour ago, glenn239 said:

The Chinese have a global satellite early warning system, do they not?

Not to my knowledge , but I might be out of date. I am aware of two satellites in GEO orbit regionally near China, but I do not think their system is equivalent to SBIRs. In any case, it’s hardly like the Chinese are going to give the Russians a direct feed to one of their most sensitive capabilities, and I believe the Russians themselves have recently orbited several early warning satellites themselves, so there is likely no need. Current satellites* only provide warning, not target tracks like an ABM radar, so it’s still a tangible loss.

 

*The new proliferated network the Space Development agency is putting up in the next year will provide target grade tracks via multiple LEO satellites triangulating ballistic and hypersonic missiles.

Edited May 27, 2024 by Josh

[Stuart Galbraith]

4 hours ago, ink said:

I genuinely don't know how to respond to that.

Neither do the international community. Here we are, nearly 90 years on from Guernica, and we still cant formulate an adequate response to barbarity when its presented to us.

 

[ink]

40 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Neither do the international community. Here we are, nearly 90 years on from Guernica, and we still cant formulate an adequate response to barbarity when its presented to us.

 

What about when it's presented by us?

Anyway, as I suspect you know, I was talking about a different kind of rules for war. Not the kind that protect the rights of combatants or their victims, but the kind that ensure things don't get out of hand on an inter-state level (or, in this case, a global civilisational level).

[sunday]

No need to search for a Guernica abroad when one has the Irish potato famine, the Boer concentration camps, Dresden, the Bengal famine, etc. at home.

[ink]

4 minutes ago, sunday said:

No need to search for a Guernica abroad when one has the Irish potato famine, the Boer concentration camps, Dresden, the Bengal famine, etc. at home.

There are much more "fun" war crimes from the UK's more recent history to bring up than the Bengal Famine 😎

https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkcy5hY2FzdC5jb20vcHVibGljL3Nob3dzL2E4YTVhNzU5LThjYjEtNTJhZC1iNTBhLThlMDhkY2VlNGQxZg/episode/NjY0YTI4NmRkNDk0MTgwMDEyOTYwZjYz?ep=14

 

Edited May 27, 2024 by ink
to fix link

[sunday]

4 minutes ago, ink said:

There are much more "fun" war crimes from the UK's more recent history to bring up than the Bengal Famine 😎

https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkcy5hY2FzdC5jb20vcHVibGljL3Nob3dzL2E4YTVhNzU5LThjYjEtNTJhZC1iNTBhLThlMDhkY2VlNGQxZg/episode/NjY0YTI4NmRkNDk0MTgwMDEyOTYwZjYz?ep=14

 

I was thinking of earlier ones. For later ones, that Bloody Sunday thing comes to mind.

Edited May 27, 2024 by sunday

[R011]

10 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

They build Siebel ferries under a licence apparently.

Get serious Stuart.

 

The Chinese don't get licences, they just steal the IP and build knock-off Siebel ferries anyway.

[glenn239]

4 hours ago, urbanoid said:

"Glenn wants the West to fight at the NATO frontier and not beyond it

Fixed it for you