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The Kremlin is burning?


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1 hour ago, Roman Alymov said:

Please excuse me for advice to take your time to actually read my posts before interpreting "Roman's language". For example this one https://www.tanknet.org/index.php?/topic/38893-kiev-is-burning/page/3056/#comment-1681988

Right from the begining (before going into coup attempt)  Prigozhin have made the claim that "President was lured by Shoigu into war" and it is all Shoigu's fault, so one could easyly interprit it as extending olive branch to West (or, rather, showing the escape route for the part of Russian elite who dream about some sort of surrender that will allow them to stay in power/with their assets). But for some reasons nobody have sided with Prigozhin, at least to the extent of going public. Note by the way that, as i have repeatedly said, Putin is actually not some sort of dictator - but rather cairman of collective body of Russian elite that run the country, and there is no need to stage "coup against Putin" as he will just adapt his retoric and actions for new power balance in elites.

Ok, please note that my commentary was not sardonic or sarcastic. IMO there plausibly is a faction that can be described as the "appease the west faction", along the lines you have described it. If I have missed some nuance then I apologise. 

On the main facts we seem to be in agreement. Prigozhin was aligning with the appease the west position at least on the "starting the war was a pointless blunder made for venal reasons" issue, far more so than Putin or Shoigu would ever accept, and for obvious reasons. 

On the issue of Putin we also agree he is not some dictator and that he has some flexibility to shift to accommodate a changing balance of power, but only to a limited degree. And moreover the balance of elite opinion was and clearly is not yet at the stage where some capitulation resulting from the Prigozhin stunt was plausible. 

In the case where Shoigi goes and is replaced with someone else, likely this will not change the balance of opinion much at all. This is more so the case as the Ukrainian offensive is failing and, especially if we are to put much weight on your commentary, the balance of public opinion is shifting if anything towards the "do the war properly" faction. 

Also as noted by Strelkov, Prigozhin also attempted some sort of "appeal to everyone" invective, including some which seems designed to appeal exactly to this "do the war properly" sentiment - though he is clear that it is insincere and far too melodramatic. 

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38 minutes ago, KV7 said:

Ok, please note that my commentary was not sardonic or sarcastic. IMO there plausibly is a faction that can be described as the "appease the west faction", along the lines you have described it. If I have missed some nuance then I apologise. 

******************

Also as noted by Strelkov, Prigozhin also attempted some sort of "appeal to everyone" invective, including some which seems designed to appeal exactly to this "do the war properly" sentiment - though he is clear that it is insincere and far too melodramatic. 

No offence ment, just want to correct some mistakes common to Westerners who do not understand realities on the ground in Russia.  It is not correct to call "appease the west" "fraction" since for at least last 30 years people who were even modestly openly anti-Western were of no chance to stay in Russian elite, they were all cleared out. So almost entire Russian elite is to some degree "appease the west", but some of them see that currently this position is not promising them much, while others do not.

By the way yesterday (when nothing was yet clear) Prigozhin announced that "Strelkov has signed his own death sentence".

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24 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

No offence ment, just want to correct some mistakes common to Westerners who do not understand realities on the ground in Russia.  It is not correct to call "appease the west" "fraction" since for at least last 30 years people who were even modestly openly anti-Western were of no chance to stay in Russian elite, they were all cleared out. So almost entire Russian elite is to some degree "appease the west", but some of them see that currently this position is not promising them much, while others do not.

By the way yesterday (when nothing was yet clear) Prigozhin announced that "Strelkov has signed his own death sentence".

Was it Prigo himself or just some Wagner-connected TG account?

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Could we get a definition of pro-Russian please.

Are those Communists, or Nationalists or friends of Imperial Russia?

And what makes you pro-West. Obviously open support for Democracy or Human rights can not be it, because those are rare in the Russian Elite. Does it mean selling Russian assets to the West to increase their private wealth?

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7 minutes ago, seahawk said:

Could we get a definition of pro-Russian please.

Are those Communists, or Nationalists or friends of Imperial Russia?

And what makes you pro-West. Obviously open support for Democracy or Human rights can not be it, because those are rare in the Russian Elite. Does it mean selling Russian assets to the West to increase their private wealth?

All three might fit, there's quite a lot of ideological diversity in those circles. They don't really care that much as long as there's Stronk™.

And yes, to them one is 'pro-Western' due to investing/living/sending children to the West instead of declaring the Rotten West™ to be THE enemy that doesn't want to allow to Make Russia Great Again™.

 

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24 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

No offence ment, just want to correct some mistakes common to Westerners who do not understand realities on the ground in Russia.  It is not correct to call "appease the west" "fraction" since for at least last 30 years people who were even modestly openly anti-Western were of no chance to stay in Russian elite, they were all cleared out. So almost entire Russian elite is to some degree "appease the west", but some of them see that currently this position is not promising them much, while others do not.

By the way yesterday (when nothing was yet clear) Prigozhin announced that "Strelkov has signed his own death sentence".

I think this is a sematic issue only. 

Note I used "faction" but this did not imply that it was an isolated or minority position, there also can be a hegemonic faction, and I find your assertion that the "appease the west" faction defined broadly as you do (i.e. to include people who are not exactly pro-western but functionally resigned to U.S./NATO hegemony or just too venal to act otherwise) is hegemonic in the Russian political class to be plausible. 

Note also that I made a distinction here which I will defend. In the article I cited, it suggests Prighozin was acting in alignment with pro-western viewpoints, but in a much more extreme way than is typical for the Russian political class - which is almost tautological as there is clearly little appetite for capitulation yet. Perhaps we can then say there is a "capitulate" faction and a "fight but half-heartedly and without disrupting internal politics much" faction, both of which are sub-factions of some broadly defined "appease the west" faction. 

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9 hours ago, rmgill said:

Did all of Wagner pull out of the lines or was it just elements that were driving to Moscow? 
 

This video is a good summary of what happened with incidents geolocated on the road to Moscow,

 

Quote

If all had pulled out with the UA able to capitalize it would have been really bad for the Russians no? Or am I over estimating what occurred? 

Sounds like the Ukrainians launched heavy attacks yesterday, but that at the front it was more or less 'business as usual'.

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Anatoly Nesmiyan, analytical blogger, analyzes yesterday's situation with Prigozhin.

These are his thoughts:

Russian regime, having exhaled from yesterday's horror, will now pretend that everything is going according to plan and not much has happened. There is not much it can do about it because the conclusions, of course, are extremely disappointing for the regime.

Yesterday we saw almost an agony, but it went through a stage of brief clinical death, after which the dying regime did wake up and returned to its former "vegetable" existence.

It seems Prigozhin was quite lucky he did not make it to Moscow on time because he would have captured it for sure. All those pompous roadblocks and checkpoints, hastily built on his way, turned out to be a problem only for civilians who got stuck on the roads; not only did they not stop the Wagner convoys, but Wagner did not even notice them.

In general, if Prigozhin had reached Moscow, he would have taken it, after which the situation would have been completely different - what do and why he needs it at all. At the same time, not the entire Wagner PMC went to Moscow, but about 4-5 thousand people. The Russian army, which a year ago was second best in the world, quickly became the second best army in Ukraine, and now it has also won an honorable second place in the Russian Federation, forfeiting the first place in points to the Wagner Group.

I am surprised that Prigozhin was not awarded a second Hero's Star by Putin's decree yesterday - that would have been the logical conclusion of all the events. No one has ever managed to go from patriot to terrorist and back to patriot so quickly in one day.

In general, the agony of the regime goes quite in line with the plot, there are no particular deviations. The regime is incapable of anything, not even facing terror. As soon as it faces real terrorists skilled in violence, it immediately falls apart and scatters. It only has the capacity and ability to deal with the unarmed and defenseless.

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31 minutes ago, Markus Becker said:

Anatoly Nesmiyan, analytical blogger, analyzes yesterday's situation with Prigozhin.

These are his thoughts:

Russian regime, having exhaled from yesterday's horror, will now pretend that everything is going according to plan and not much has happened. There is not much it can do about it because the conclusions, of course, are extremely disappointing for the regime.
 

With all my respect, Anatoly Nesmiyan, aka El Murid, is well known first and foremost for his articles about victorious Iraq troops that were defeating invading US forces..... Yes he is critical on Russian elite (as almost every non-Gov author in Russia) but hardly a serious source....

   By the way strange post that appeared few minites ago on Wagner official TG channel https://t.me/wagnernew/8383. It is full of gramma erors and missing punctuation, as if Prigozhin was typing it personally. I wonder what it means... 

"Hello everyone, I want you to post this information on your information resource, what we have by the end of the day, and we have the following results today a unique 6th special operation in the style of the KGB was carried out lightning fast and deadly for the enemy. What was it about the rebel group Shoigu Gerasimov Zolotov Kiriyenko and the rest today were beheaded and defeated all the instigators of the organizers, the performers were issued by the body that should deal with this, and they are already closely engaged in this. What role our private military company Wagner played, I think everyone will soon understand, and their next videos are not like that. The group of Sheik Gerasimov was going to remove the president from power. To which Vladimir Vladimirovich turned to his loyal soldiers of the Wagner company and his most trusted person, Yevgeny Viktorovich Prigozhin, special thanks to him for preserving the country of the people of the Armed Forces, a real patriot of his country, the second star of the hero, he must be taught. What we have Wagner began to act it is noteworthy that Wagner's units occupied Rostov in the first place, because there was the headquarters of the Southern Military District. It was they who captured the headquarters where the instigators of the Generals headed by Shoigu Gerasimov were sitting at the last moment, Shoigu Gerasimov managed to escape to Moscow In a panic along the way, giving orders under control and a rebellious general to attack the Wagner aviation columns, which apparently did not bring results. Further events developed as follows: the buildings of the FSB of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Wagner were not occupied, But only unhooked. This is also a very weighty and I think a prominent fact, further Shoigu Gerasimov are fleeing to Moscow and did not believe in it, that the dude raised an Uprising, They really believed in it, the bet was made on this, because they do not have combat-ready troops, all the troops will be able to be involved. Now at the front. Then they run to the president, that we will let you save everyone, my dear Father, What the president does, the president goes further with us. He's a scout coming. Then he records the speech in this speech. He calls some rebels, but note that he did not mention Wagner or Yevgeny Viktorovich, but he mentioned the rebels who will be punished according to the strictness of the law In full. And this is precisely the Shoigu Gerasimov grouping conditionally, we call it so there is much more and deeper. This iceberg is all hidden under the water base. When all the organizers and participants of the Shoigu Gerasimov group of these rebels are given out and known, Vladimir Vladimirovich waits for time after the appeal, when the army says that it is the commander of the Federation Council also speaks out for the fact that they are loyal to the supreme commander. mayors, governors, he also contacts the President of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, who is also an old Cunning fox here, that tell Eugene the operation is completed. Lights out, to which Alexander Grigoryevich contacts Prigozhin and a subspecies of some agreements, Zhenya says lights out to return Wagner's unit to the places of permanent relocation. Well, Evgeny Viktorovich, he says, Yes, in the evening all the columns return to the points of permanent deployment to field camps. That says a lot. I'm telling you what Wagner pulled off. Uh, the most unique operation of its kind, the rebels were completely decapitated completely. Shoigu's group has been destroyed, according to some information Shoigu has been arrested, I don't know for sure yet, but we will know more tomorrow. the man will return demonstrated his professionalism, composure and great love for his homeland this day was not easy, but we survived it and again played one of the decisive roles of preserving Russia preserving the Russian people, eternal memory and gratitude to them, another monument needs to be erected. What would have been waiting for us if this operation had not happened, But the following was waiting for us: Wagner the other day was going to disband the neck grouping, depriving the president of such a power lever, because another power lever, all at the front is involved."

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Something strange is going on: after today's phone call with Putin (second in two days), Lukashenko of Belorussia also spoke with Nazarbayev (former Soviet leader and first President of Kazakhstan, now de-facto austed from power). https://www.bfm.ru/news/528325

"June 25, 2023, 18:22 Politics
Lukashenko spoke with Putin and Nazarbayev

Both telephone conversations took place on Sunday, June 25

President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko spoke on the phone with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on Sunday morning, June 25. This is reported by the state agency "Belta" with reference to the press service of the Belarusian leader. Details of the conversation are not given.

In the afternoon, Lukashenko had a telephone conversation with the first President of Kazakhstan, Nursultan Nazarbayev. The international situation, the situation in the region and Belarusian-Kazakh relations were discussed."

 

 

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34 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

Something strange is going on: after today's phone call with Putin (second in two days), Lukashenko of Belorussia also spoke with Nazarbayev (former Soviet leader and first President of Kazakhstan, now de-facto austed from power). https://www.bfm.ru/news/528325

"June 25, 2023, 18:22 Politics
Lukashenko spoke with Putin and Nazarbayev

Both telephone conversations took place on Sunday, June 25

President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko spoke on the phone with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on Sunday morning, June 25. This is reported by the state agency "Belta" with reference to the press service of the Belarusian leader. Details of the conversation are not given.

In the afternoon, Lukashenko had a telephone conversation with the first President of Kazakhstan, Nursultan Nazarbayev. The international situation, the situation in the region and Belarusian-Kazakh relations were discussed."

 

 

No need to go Stuart here...

Edited to add:

I mean, it is not like Putin is the second coming of Stalin, despite what some people could think.

Edited by sunday
Clarification
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1 hour ago, JWB said:

Open the tweet in another tab and scroll !!!!!!

 

What Sushko posts should always be taken with a pinch of salt, as some of the users that posted under the tweet from Gerashchenko already pointed out.

Edited by Critical
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10 hours ago, BansheeOne said:

... But even if the shootdowns were accidental, the original air attacks on the column which caused the Wagnerites to shoot at anything flying near them seem not....

You got it backward, first shotdown was EW Mi-8 who was unfortunate to fly over column on it's regular scheduled flight. That was a probably mistake by Wagner, but it lead to a column being was attacked by pair of Mi-35s (one was shot down) after that. Then they started firing on other things flying.

Plane shotdown was also most probably deliberate, in order to cut/degrade comms.

Edited by bojan
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Finnish media reports from Kiev and Moscow (by local representatives, not Finnish correspondets):

Kiev: Ukrainians are delighted over the news, however somewhat disappointed that it ended so quickly and seemingly with relatively little actual effect. Despite Prigozhin's putsch attempt (seemingly) benefitting Ukrainians, nobody sees Prigozhin as a potential ally, even by 'enemy of my enemy' principle: he's widely seen a butcher and likely war criminal.

Moscow: Muscovites didn't seem to much care about the entire 'rebellion', whole thing felt distant and unreal (much as the entire war). Certainly there was no support for Prigozhin whatsoever among the hoi polloi. He had no political ideology, no party, no allies, it was completely unlike the 1993 crisis.

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