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The Kremlin is burning?


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21 minutes ago, Wouter2 said:

Thanks. A later update. The Mi-28 doesn't seem to have much succes in this conflict....

Main reason is that Ataka is shorter ranged than Vikhr (best version in service has 8km range, and that is pretty limited issue compared to more common 6km version). It is also slightly slower than Vikhr, 15s vs 14s to 6 km and 25s vs 23s to 8km,.

Ka-52 is also more maneuverable, hence more liked by pilots.

FCS/Night sights and avionics wise they are more less the same. It appears that Mi-28NM are however preferred carriers for LMUR/Izd.305 missile.

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1 hour ago, Wouter2 said:

3 Mi8 EW variant, that's an enormous loss if true. They lost 2 earlier to that Ukrainian SAM ambush, and there aren't many.

Where was the damaged Mi-28 reported?

I believe Russia had less than 20 EW helicopters in total before the war started 

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These is some interesting discussion in here.

In particular the thesis that Prigozhin did not really have any "prosecute the war better" motive (this was nationalist cover) but was actually open to ending it. In this case he was acting (perhaps on suggestion/funding/support etc. of others) with a plan to capitalise on expected Russian defeats in the Ukrainian offensive, which however did not occur.

In Roman's language, it would be a case of "desperate attempt of a fanatical sub-faction of appease the west faction".

Of course I am not at all convinced. Most notably because for such a plan to succeed, it would surely have to involve an actual coup against Putin (which would seem very unlikely to work) and not just a personnel shuffle under some theatrical protest (which also would have been difficult, but he may have actually succeeded in attaining). 

In a scenario like this, the open question would be if he had attempted to establish the war hero credentials as part of some long term cynical plot, or if the fighting in Bakhmut pushed him towards a sort of war weariness. 

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/special-report-emergency-situation

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Did all of Wagner pull out of the lines or was it just elements that were driving to Moscow? 
 

If all had pulled out with the UA able to capitalize it would have been really bad for the Russians no? Or am I over estimating what occurred? 

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9 minutes ago, rmgill said:

Did all of Wagner pull out of the lines or was it just elements that were driving to Moscow? 
 

If all had pulled out with the UA able to capitalize it would have been really bad for the Russians no? Or am I over estimating what occurred? 

Most reports seem to suggest it was a small fraction that were on board with the plan. According to some accounts, some didn't move or were not ordered to, others did but under false suggestions they were simply redeploying (e.g. to Belgorod).  

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2 hours ago, rmgill said:

Did all of Wagner pull out of the lines or was it just elements that were driving to Moscow? 
 

If all had pulled out with the UA able to capitalize it would have been really bad for the Russians no? Or am I over estimating what occurred? 

It was something like 500 vehicles, so assuming something like a maximum of 10 to a vehicle, it had to be rather less than 5000 troops. So the bulk seemed to be back in Voronezh, where Prigohzhin was.

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8 hours ago, bojan said:

13 kia in VKS, 15 kia total (not clear hiw two kia on ground happened).

Il-22 com bird

3 x Mi-8 EW

1 x regular Mi-8

1 x Ka-52

1 x Mi-35

1 x Mi-28 heavily damaged

Worst day for VKS since airborne command plane was shot down by Syrians.

Im wondering if the Air Force killed 2 when they blew up the fuel tanks, and put it on the Wagner total.

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8 hours ago, Wouter2 said:

Thanks. A later update. The Mi-28 doesn't seem to have much succes in this conflict. While the Ka52 has pretty bad losses (mostly due to risks taken earlier in the war), at least those also got a reputation for being lethal.

That we know, Konashenkov mentioned a year ago that the Mi-28N was used for night ops as part of hunter killer teams. As the front settled down, there would be less opportunities to operate and it would make little sense to risk them if artillery can do the job.

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7 hours ago, crazyinsane105 said:

I believe Russia had less than 20 EW helicopters in total before the war started 

14 IIRC. 36% losses so far.

Edited by bojan
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4 hours ago, rmgill said:

Did all of Wagner pull out of the lines or was it just elements that were driving to Moscow? 

AFAIK they were not deployed on frontlines ATM.

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1 hour ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Im wondering if the Air Force killed 2 when they blew up the fuel tanks, and put it on the Wagner total.

Tank blew from a stray Strela-10 that has missed Ka-52, there is vid more-less clearly showing it.

Two KIAs are armed forces personal, so probably not there.

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2 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

It was something like 500 vehicles, so assuming something like a maximum of 10 to a vehicle, it had to be rather less than 5000 troops. So the bulk seemed to be back in Voronezh, where Prigohzhin was.

Prigozhin was sating in district HQ in Moscow for entire day of June 24th. I wonder why he was not leading the columns to Moscow....

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1 hour ago, bojan said:

Tank blew from a stray Strela-10 that has missed Ka-52, there is vid more-less clearly showing it.

Ah, the inevitable Hollywood moment in any armed action. :D

With the very real damage caused, I suspect the whole "it was a maskirovka for Wagner to go to Belarus and attack Ukraine from there" whisper is just coping by those who desperately want to see some sense in this. First of all, AFAIK only Prigozhin himself will be exiled (though he will doubtlessly take a trusted security detail with him) while the troops who participated will receive a pardon. But even if the shootdowns were accidental, the original air attacks on the column which caused the Wagnerites to shoot at anything flying near them seem not.

I keep trying to apply some political sense to this myself, figuring out whether this was done by the "why not nuke the Ukrainians" Prigozhin or the "all reasons for the war were a sham" Prigozhin. But in the end, it was probably just the "I'm gonna get arrested for refusing to put my baby under control of the inept MoD" Prigozhin. I also can't see any "party" in Russia profiting from this mess. It just lays bare the divisions and disunity, weakening both Putin and the "wage a better war" camp.

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The key I suspect is his taking Southern Military District HQ apparently without a shot being fired. I believe he probably thought the Army would throw in their lot with him and march up the road towards Moscow. From what I hear, though that didnt happen, they were far from unreceptive to his aim of taking out Shoigu and Gerasimov. Putin was probably too much for them.

So at that point, he is buggered. He can go to Moscow, perhaps take it. But with less than 5000 guys, he cant possibly hold onto it, and he was looking for a way out. Reportedly Lukashenko wasnt even sure Prighozin was going to pick up the phone. That he did, to me at least, suggests he was looking for a way out.

So it was a failure, but not a complete one. He may have removed Shoigu and Gerasimov, we will have to see. He is alive, something of an achievement. One source says he can take some of his guys with him to Belarus. If thats true, its possibly another explanation for why Lukashenko did this. Wouldnt it make sense for someone with Putin's blade over his neck, to have his own personal Wagner?

That the Army didnt throw in their lot with Wagner is probably not going to be much comfort to Putin. Other than the Air Force, who completely ineffectually  attacked them, the Army wouldnt touch wagner. Which implies that Putins control over the Army is not as complete as believed. Indeed, it may explain their reluctance to indulge in any more offensives. They know its a waste of men and equipment.

Thats how I make sense of it, though God help me, you probably need a team of shrinks to make sense of it.

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6 hours ago, KV7 said:


In Roman's language, it would be a case of "desperate attempt of a fanatical sub-faction of appease the west faction".

Of course I am not at all convinced. Most notably because for such a plan to succeed, it would surely have to involve an actual coup against Putin (which would seem very unlikely to work) and not just a personnel shuffle under some theatrical protest (which also would have been difficult, but he may have actually succeeded in attaining). 
 

Please excuse me for advice to take your time to actually read my posts before interpreting "Roman's language". For example this one https://www.tanknet.org/index.php?/topic/38893-kiev-is-burning/page/3056/#comment-1681988

 

Right from the begining (before going into coup attempt)  Prigozhin have made the claim that "President was lured by Shoigu into war" and it is all Shoigu's fault, so one could easyly interprit it as extending olive branch to West (or, rather, showing the escape route for the part of Russian elite who dream about some sort of surrender that will allow them to stay in power/with their assets). But for some reasons nobody have sided with Prigozhin, at least to the extent of going public. Note by the way that, as i have repeatedly said, Putin is actually not some sort of dictator - but rather cairman of collective body of Russian elite that run the country, and there is no need to stage "coup against Putin" as he will just adapt his retoric and actions for new power balance in elites.

Edited by Roman Alymov
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It should be noted that Roman did not interrupt the boastful storm of irrelevant posts in this thread and the related one.

He waited for the situation to clear, in a most sensible manner.

Edited by sunday
Reasons.
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roman,

what is Kiriyenko doing? you hinted him being the real master of wagner

and that general who joined wagner couple months ago?

 

Edited by bd1
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19 minutes ago, bd1 said:

roman,

what is Kiriyenko doing? you hinted him being the real master of wagner

No idea, but i have noticed that he was not seen (by me) among the row of top officials who publically sided anti-Wagner cause.

21 minutes ago, bd1 said:

and that general who joined wagner couple months ago?

Probably you mean former deputy MoD Mesintsev. Also, no idea - as nobody from real military commanders* of Wagner went public during this events. 

* Prigizhin is not military commander but sort of PR spokesman.

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26 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

Probably you mean former deputy MoD Mesintsev. Also, no idea - as nobody from real military commanders* of Wagner went public during this events. 

* Prigizhin is not military commander but sort of PR spokesman.

P.S. You are notr the only person asking

"Another point of interest after yesterday's events is the question of what will happen now with the famous commanders of the PMC assault detachments, as well as with Wagner himself?

There is no data on which of them took part in yesterday's "rally", and whether they took it at all. Ratibor, Zombie, Mechan, Lotus and other officers of the command level are still quite high-class specialists, with enormous experience, no matter how they are treated now. Do not forget that the former deputy of the Ministry of Defense, General Mizintsev, worked as part of the Wagner headquarters.

None of them has shown themselves in any way in the information field over the past two days. Whether they will leave together with Prigozhin for Belarus, whether they will sign a contract with the Ministry of Defense, which is a very big question, is not yet clear. One thing is for sure - such people retire only in zinc coffin." https://t.me/ok_spn/25327

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