The Kremlin is burning?

[Roman Alymov]

4 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

They lost most of those relations due to the annexation of Crimea and creation of Donbabwe and Luganda. 

Doubling down on that, i.e. invading Ukraine directly and openly in 2022 was supposed to restore them and make the West... more accepting and eager to let them be junior partners again?

Ffs...

No, reunification of Crimea and hesitant support of Donbass were the steps they were forced into to avoid loosing power inside Russia (as failure to do so would be the steps they would not be able to justify). Reverse side of being colonial administration is constant danger of internal revolt.....

[seahawk]

So Russia propped up the pro-Ukrainian side so that the invasion would fail to please the Western masters. Amazing. 

[Josh]

1 hour ago, Roman Alymov said:

 I mean not the world itself ("war" or "operation") but the idea of rapid operation with very limited (and obviously not sufficient for big war) forces, with direct ban on removing Ukraine flags, on replacement of pro-Ukrainian officials with pro-Russian ones, on strikes on UkrArmy barracks, careful avoidance of any mentioning of UkrArmy personnel losses in official RusMoD reports etc. This was ment to be operation (de-facto raid) to force pro-Ukrainians (and their Western masters) into negotiations on Minsk agreements terms or simmilar.

The above contradicts your often stated notion that Ukraine is not a country and part of Russia.
 

If Minsk or the independent republics were the central issue, there were numerous other options that were far less risky. The intent was quite transparently to take the country and either install a puppet government or annex it outright, regardless of what window dressing Russia put on the effort.

[Josh]

52 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

No, reunification of Crimea and hesitant support of Donbass were the steps they were forced into to avoid loosing power inside Russia (as failure to do so would be the steps they would not be able to justify). Reverse side of being colonial administration is constant danger of internal revolt.....

Can you point to any unrest in Russia before the aborted Wagner coup attempt?

[Roman Alymov]

29 minutes ago, Josh said:

The above contradicts your often stated notion that Ukraine is not a country and part of Russia.

No, it is my stated notion that Ukraine is not a country and part of Russia contradicting official policy of "collective Yeltsin"  and then "collective Putin" (at least, untill they were forced to move closer to my position by helpful hand of Western officials).

[Roman Alymov]

29 minutes ago, Josh said:

Can you point to any unrest in Russia before the aborted Wagner coup attempt?

Please excuse me for refreshing your memory

[Stefan Kotsch]

45 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

1 hour ago, Josh said:

Can you point to any unrest in Russia before the aborted Wagner coup attempt?

Please excuse me for refreshing your memory

Well, the August coup in Moscow in 1991 was not unrest (starting from society).  It was a coup by a few old communists. Perhaps it was also pro-Western politicians to serve the Western compradors? Who knows? 😜

 

[Josh]

58 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

Please excuse me for refreshing your memory

So nothing since then? No mass demonstrations in 2014 that forced Putin to annex Crimea? Has there ever been a demonstration against western colonialism in the last three decades?

Edited December 1, 2025 by Josh

[Roman Alymov]

23 minutes ago, Stefan Kotsch said:

Well, the August coup in Moscow in 1991 was not unrest (starting from society).  It was a coup by a few old communists. Perhaps it was also pro-Western politicians to serve the Western compradors? Who knows? 😜

  I'm sorry to mention it is regratable for you as seasoned expert in Russian affairs to mix 1991 with 1993.

18 minutes ago, Josh said:

So nothing since then? No mass demonstrations in 2014 that forced Putin to annex Crimea? Has there ever been a demonstration against western colonialism in the last three decades?

  What mass demonstratioins? Do you understand that Russian grassroots are not recreational rioters on the street, but wide public including Army low ranks, Police low ranks, FSB low ranks and so on? When you will see this people in action, it will be indication that it is time for "appeasement of the West" party to board their private jets (or just regular flights to Tel Aviv or London) and leave to where their assets and families allready are. Note in 2022 significant part of them did exactly that. In 2014, they hoped reintegration of Crimea would be the bone they could throw to grass roots and stay in power - well, that gave them only extra 8 years.....

[Josh]

3 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

 

  What mass demonstratioins? Do you understand that Russian grassroots are not recreational rioters on the street, but wide public including Army low ranks, Police low ranks, FSB low ranks and so on? When you will see this people in action, it will be indication that it is time for "appeasement of the West" party to board their private jets (or just regular flights to Tel Aviv or London) and leave to where their assets and families allready are. Note in 2022 significant part of them did exactly that. In 2014, they hoped reintegration of Crimea would be the bone they could throw to grass roots and stay in power - well, that gave them only extra 8 years.....

So you can give no examples of Russian unrest this century, but insist that it influences Putin’s decisions, hence the invasion(s) in 2014?

[Roman Alymov]

1 hour ago, Josh said:

So you can give no examples of Russian unrest this century, but insist that it influences Putin’s decisions, hence the invasion(s) in 2014?

I'm afraid you have failed to read my explanations above...

[Stefan Kotsch]

6 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

I'm sorry to mention it is regratable for you as seasoned expert in Russian affairs to mix 1991 with 1993.

I wrote about the 1991 coup. You get the 1993 constitutional crisis thrown in as a bonus.

The core idea was that Russian society, in exchange for the government's promise of prosperity, was giving it a free pass to wage wars against its neighbors.

Nothing has changed since 1991, 1993 and today.

Edited December 1, 2025 by Stefan Kotsch

[Mike1158]

3 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

I'm afraid you have failed to read my explanations above...

What with all your various explanations and assertions that folk have not read your lexicon 'explanation' properly, I wonder which OS you run on.

 

As if your diverse and frequently contradictory 'explanations must be taken as gospel, how do you rationalise it all?

[Roman Alymov]

5 hours ago, Mike1158 said:

What with all your various explanations and assertions that folk have not read your lexicon 'explanation' properly, I wonder which OS you run on.

As if your diverse and frequently contradictory 'explanations must be taken as gospel, how do you rationalise it all?

  Political situation in Russia is diverse and frequently contradictory  - unlike in simplistic pictures proposed by Western experts and media. If you do not like this fact - well, it is up to you.

[Roman Alymov]

8 hours ago, Stefan Kotsch said:

I wrote about the 1991 coup. You get the 1993 constitutional crisis thrown in as a bonus.

The core idea was that Russian society, in exchange for the government's promise of prosperity, was giving it a free pass to wage wars against its neighbors.

Nothing has changed since 1991, 1993 and today.

  With all my respect, your view is so distant from what was the real events i do not dare to alter this unique peace of fiction. After all, it is even good from Russian point of view Westerners are so detached from reality.

[seahawk]

15 hours ago, Stefan Kotsch said:

Well, the August coup in Moscow in 1991 was not unrest (starting from society).  It was a coup by a few old communists. Perhaps it was also pro-Western politicians to serve the Western compradors? Who knows? 😜

 

Mostly it was a fight between pro-Russian nationalists and pro-Western oligarchs. 

[ink]

12 hours ago, Stefan Kotsch said:

I wrote about the 1991 coup. You get the 1993 constitutional crisis thrown in as a bonus.

The core idea was that Russian society, in exchange for the government's promise of prosperity, was giving it a free pass to wage wars against its neighbors.

Nothing has changed since 1991, 1993 and today.

People often don't know that the "constitutional crisis" (as it came to be known later) was actually a much bigger deal than the 1991 spat. It was, in part at least, the last roll of the dice against disaster capitalism or shock therapy (also euphemisms for a massive theft of resources*). The outcome (over the next few years) is the solidification of the Yeltsin oligarchy (fully supported by the West to the point that US and British 'diplomats' participated in the selection of Yeltsin's heir... You know who I mean).

I don't think most people are familiar with the scale of the societal collapse that ensued.

 

* I sometimes wonder how many hundreds of billions ended up in Western countries, leaving people there feeling rich (but presumably mostly without knowing why... and thinking they had something to do with it).

[Stefan Kotsch]

17 minutes ago, ink said:

I don't think most people are familiar with the scale of the societal collapse that ensued.

Ok, It's all interesting.

But we are moving away from the initial thought. The majority of Russian society continues to be completely passive to the politics of its government. Putin may like to wage his wars, but as long as it doesn't affect us, we don't care.

[ink]

1 hour ago, Stefan Kotsch said:

Ok, It's all interesting.

But we are moving away from the initial thought. The majority of Russian society continues to be completely passive to the politics of its government. Putin may like to wage his wars, but as long as it doesn't affect us, we don't care.

Aren't all publics like that?

In Britain, for example, over a million people marched to try to stop the Iraq war... And when that didn't work: nothing. People just went back to their regular lives as their government utterly trashed a country, destroying the lives of millions.

Rinse and repeat for Afghanistan, Libya, etc, etc.

In Germany, for example, the narrative is that Israel can do no wrong because Jews. So Germans are happy to not only turn a blind eye to genocide, but to actively support it.

Hard to expect Russians, living in what is ostensibly a less permissive political/media environment, and with a poorer quality of life generally, to "rise up" against their government's war.

Edited December 2, 2025 by ink

[seahawk]

I am not sure the German example fits in the line, because if you look closely one can argue that Germany actually shows some responsibility for its past. It is not as if Germany is not helping the people of Gaza, 375 million Euro of aid were sent to the UN since 2023. 

The fitting comparison would be the UK staying out of Afghanistan because of crimes committed during colonial times and Russia staying out of the Ukraine because of Holdomor. 

[Stefan Kotsch]

29 minutes ago, ink said:

Aren't all publics like that?

You write yourself that in the countries you mentioned, there are always numerous protests from society. In Russia: Zero

[Stuart Galbraith]

20 minutes ago, seahawk said:

I am not sure the German example fits in the line, because if you look closely one can argue that Germany actually shows some responsibility for its past. It is not as if Germany is not helping the people of Gaza, 375 million Euro of aid were sent to the UN since 2023. 

The fitting comparison would be the UK staying out of Afghanistan because of crimes committed during colonial times and Russia staying out of the Ukraine because of Holdomor. 

[ink]

26 minutes ago, Stefan Kotsch said:

You write yourself that in the countries you mentioned, there are always numerous protests from society. In Russia: Zero

But that's not the case. When the war broke out (or even when it was just about to break out), people protested and were promptly arrested and taken away. Famously, one protestor was arrested just for holding up a blank sign.

Also, it may be worth bearing in mind the relative costs of protesting peacefully in a) most European countries, and b) Russia.

[ink]

36 minutes ago, seahawk said:

I am not sure the German example fits in the line, because if you look closely one can argue that Germany actually shows some responsibility for its past. It is not as if Germany is not helping the people of Gaza, 375 million Euro of aid were sent to the UN since 2023. 

The fitting comparison would be the UK staying out of Afghanistan because of crimes committed during colonial times and Russia staying out of the Ukraine because of Holdomor. 

Maybe.

We can discuss the benefits of including Germany as an example or not. I could have probably made my point just as effectively without the example of Germany.

However, I do find it interesting - judging exclusively on the back of the perceptions of some German friends - how happy people are to toe the line with no real thought about the moral implications or consequences.

[seahawk]

3 hours ago, ink said:

Maybe.

We can discuss the benefits of including Germany as an example or not. I could have probably made my point just as effectively without the example of Germany.

However, I do find it interesting - judging exclusively on the back of the perceptions of some German friends - how happy people are to toe the line with no real thought about the moral implications or consequences.

Not to derail the thread, but I know no one who is happy with it. Most agree that as far as they are concerned they would rather not support Israel nor Hamas. But that is no option, as it does not help the people of Gaza and would also increase the risk of the people of Israel for another brutal attack.