The Kremlin is burning?

[urbanoid]

15 minutes ago, seahawk said:

I disagree, as Russia is still not infected by the woke virus and therefore offers a lot of healthy values for any non-communist. 

Sure.

https://x.com/TZDTODAY/status/1931799187181437345

 

[Stuart Galbraith]

11 hours ago, Josh said:

You can already see it from here. In fact, it’s hard to imagine Russia is remotely economically competitive in the long term. It will suffer a population collapse similar to China with nothing like the automation or export markets.

Oh, im sure simple tradition and nationalism will hold it together for a while. But when they start applying violence to keep the disputes under control, I think even that will slowly erode. Its what happened in the 1980's, what happened in 1905 for that matter.

The question is not if Russia collapses, but how long its going to take to happen. Will it be 100 years like the Hapsburgs decline? Or overnight like the USSR? I do know Russia is doomed by its own birthrate. It wont import Europeans, so inevitably it will one day it must be Chinese. Already is to some extent, at least in the far east.

[urbanoid]

34 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

No, Russia is 100 years behind Europe. Its infected by the nationalism virus, which is far more potent than anything a one legged African Lesbian can conjure up. 

It's not nationalism, it's 'gulaghomo' as opposed to 'globohomo'. Anti-Western globalism as opposed to Western globalism. The same problems with mass immigration as the West, more muslims as a share of population than probably any Western country. 

The bigger issue is with Russia's 'imperialist' side, not the nationalist one. In a sense it's the last colonial empire or rather remnants thereof, but they don't want to be remnants anymore, they want to bounce back. 

  

30 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Oh, im sure simple tradition and nationalism will hold it together for a while. But when they start applying violence to keep the disputes under control, I think even that will slowly erode. Its what happened in the 1980's, what happened in 1905 for that matter.

The question is not if Russia collapses, but how long its going to take to happen. Will it be 100 years like the Hapsburgs decline? Or overnight like the USSR? I do know Russia is doomed by its own birthrate. It wont import Europeans, so inevitably it will one day it must be Chinese. Already is to some extent, at least in the far east.

It's mass importing Central Asians, increasingly Indians etc. Including to replace actual Europeans in the occupied territories of Ukraine.

Edited November 8 by urbanoid

[JWB]

Almost a heresy:

 

[Stuart Galbraith]

Oh man, they are actually out puritaning puritans.

 

[Roman Alymov]

10 hours ago, urbanoid said:

It's not nationalism, it's 'gulaghomo' as opposed to 'globohomo'. Anti-Western globalism as opposed to Western globalism. The same problems with mass immigration as the West, more muslims as a share of population than probably any Western country. 

The bigger issue is with Russia's 'imperialist' side, not the nationalist one. In a sense it's the last colonial empire or rather remnants thereof, but they don't want to be remnants anymore, they want to bounce back. 

  

It's mass importing Central Asians, increasingly Indians etc. Including to replace actual Europeans in the occupied territories of Ukraine.

   Do you know why Central Asians were not coming to this lands when they were "Ukraine"? For simple reason - there were no profitable jobs there, compared to other options, first and foremost RF. Now, when massive reconstruction programs are boosting local job markets, Central Asians want to profit from them. 

    Anyway, i do not think there are any reasons for West to complain since situation in Russia, with all known problems created by our pro-Western colonial Gov, is still far better then in West itself

White Britons to become minority in UK in 40 years – study - Daily Telegraph NZ

[urbanoid]

2 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

   Do you know why Central Asians were not coming to this lands when they were "Ukraine"? For simple reason - there were no profitable jobs there, compared to other options, first and foremost RF. Now, when massive reconstruction programs are boosting local job markets, Central Asians want to profit from them. 

    Anyway, i do not think there are any reasons for West to complain since situation in Russia, with all known problems created by our pro-Western colonial Gov, is still far better then in West itself

White Britons to become minority in UK in 40 years – study - Daily Telegraph NZ

And when are ethnic Russians to become a minority in Russia? As of now even the UK is more British than Russia is Russian. 

Btw. the mass immigration of, among other, Central Asians that you've been complaining about is suddenly good when it's in occupied territories?

[Roman Alymov]

1 minute ago, urbanoid said:

And when are ethnic Russians to become a minority in Russia? As of now even the UK is more British than Russia is Russian. 

As by now, "ethnic Russian" population in RF is ~80% ( Ethnic groups in Russia - Wikipedia ) and even most pessimistic forecasts ( «Стало известно когда русские станут меньшинством в РФ» - появились прогнозы о демографических перспективах страны | Утренний Юг | Дзен ) are expecting it will take 75 years to this share to go down to 59,8% (for comparison sake, 55.35% newborns in UK came from white Britons NOW).

10 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

Btw. the mass immigration of, among other, Central Asians that you've been complaining about is suddenly good when it's in occupied territories?

Could you please direct me to where i have said it is good? I said it is side effect of the region becoming more prosperous. Yes, negative side effect as for me. 

[urbanoid]

42 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

As by now, "ethnic Russian" population in RF is ~80% ( Ethnic groups in Russia - Wikipedia ) and even most pessimistic forecasts ( «Стало известно когда русские станут меньшинством в РФ» - появились прогнозы о демографических перспективах страны | Утренний Юг | Дзен ) are expecting it will take 75 years to this share to go down to 59,8% (for comparison sake, 55.35% newborns in UK came from white Britons NOW).

Could you please direct me to where i have said it is good? I said it is side effect of the region becoming more prosperous. Yes, negative side effect as for me. 

Wasn't it in the low 70s actually according to the census a few years back? Coupled with a higher fertility rates of Russian muslims (which btw are most likely a higher share of population than in any Western European country) and the like AND substantial mass immigration I have my doubts. 

Whatever you say about the rotten West, at least there are little doubts about the reliability of the censuses, unlike in Russia, or China for that matter (see Yi Fuxian).

Quote

How many of us there are today is essentially unclear. But it's certainly not the "solid" 146 million people; the 2021 census is 100% fiction.

"I had concerns about previous censuses as well; I believe their results were unreliable and untrustworthy. This census is simply plucked out of thin air," says Grigory Yudin , a sociologist and professor at the Moscow School of Social and Economic Sciences .

According to official data, as of 2011 there were about 142 million people.

"We don't know our population. Serious demographers say there are actually 90 million of us. Two of my female students were conducting a census in different districts of Moscow. One counted 6,500 people in her district, and the other 8,500. In the districts with 6,500, they were told to list 10,000 people, and in the districts with 8,500, they were told to list 12,000. So, in these districts, 30% of the population was over-reported. I think this situation was the same throughout Russia," noted renowned historian Andrei Fursov back in 2012.

"I conducted a roll call among my large social circle, and on my Facebook page, I couldn't find a single person who had seen a live census taker. Those who responded that they participated in the census did so independently through the Gosuslugi website, including myself. And this, of course, doesn't correlate with the data the organizers claim—over 99% of the population participated in the census. The situation is, of course, radically different from 2010, when live census takers were at least seen," noted political scientist Alexander Kynev .

https://svpressa.ru/society/article/324647/

As for the latter, ok, it only sounded to me like you did.

Edited November 8 by urbanoid

[Roman Alymov]

16 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

Wasn't it in the low 70s actually according to the census a few years back? 

   No, it was not as far as i know - let's wait for your source to be displayed.

18 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

 Coupled with a higher fertility rates of Russian muslims

   Don't you feel a bit awkward when telling the person with last name "Alymov" about the dangers of Russian muslims? Local muslims are not causing problems - newcomers from Central Asia do. By the way note Muslims are not exclusive for that, for example Armenians are most ancient Christian nation - still, Armenian organised crime/ethnic communities are also not angels.

 

19 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

...... substantial mass immigration I have my doubts. 

Don't you have doubts when BOTH claiming RF is in deep economic troubles and people are mass migrating to RF? Anyway, problem of mass migration is now starting to be addressed (yes, in usual Putin-era style of "two steps forward  - one step back and one aside", but still  - not ignored like for years before that).

25 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

Whatever you say about the rotten West, at least there are little doubts about the reliability of the censuses, unlike in Russia, or China for that matter (see Yi Fuxian).

Are you sure of that? In West, even the stories of major and immediate politicasl meaning are falcified on state level (see the story of "Trump the Rus agent" ), so i see no reason to expect statistic data to be free from manipulation. Meanwhile, what is the sake for RF officials to falsify data on share of ethnic Russians, while until recently the very word "Russian" was de-facto banned from official use as "Russian nationalism" was considered one of the main threats?

[urbanoid]

3 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

   No, it was not as far as i know - let's wait for your source to be displayed.

   Don't you feel a bit awkward when telling the person with last name "Alymov" about the dangers of Russian muslims? Local muslims are not causing problems - newcomers from Central Asia do. By the way note Muslims are not exclusive for that, for example Armenians are most ancient Christian nation - still, Armenian organised crime/ethnic communities are also not angels.

 

Don't you have doubts when BOTH claiming RF is in deep economic troubles and people are mass migrating to RF? Anyway, problem of mass migration is now starting to be addressed (yes, in usual Putin-era style of "two steps forward  - one step back and one aside", but still  - not ignored like for years before that).

Are you sure of that? In West, even the stories of major and immediate politicasl meaning are falcified on state level (see the story of "Trump the Rus agent" ), so i see no reason to expect statistic data to be free from manipulation. Meanwhile, what is the sake for RF officials to falsify data on share of ethnic Russians, while until recently the very word "Russian" was de-facto banned from official use as "Russian nationalism" was considered one of the main threats?

Even in your own source (wiki) there's a difference between those who declared (80%) and those who apparently ARE (71%) ethnic Russian, I have no idea what it means. 

Btw it's kinda wild that 17 million people didn't declare ethnicity. 

I assume 'local muslims' include Chechens and the like too, you know, the people with a de facto country (and one to some extent ruled by the sharia law) that Moscow is paying off to pretend it won the war? Oh, sure, they display their loyalty right, left and center and will continue to do so as long as they consider it profitable. 

I'm pretty sure that Russian state of 'economic troubles' is better than most of 'Central Asian prosperity', at least for now. I'd say that's the general rule, even Belarus is apparently eyeing importing 150k Pakistanis and by European (or even Russian) standards Belarus is poor as fuck. For turd worlders it's going to be more than good enough.

No, I'm not entirely sure, but somewhat more than in case of authoritarian/totalitarian governments. The very fact of switching governments from time to time makes faking things like that somewhat harder. 

[seahawk]

15 hours ago, JWB said:

Almost a heresy:

 

Everything he says is correct. True happiness only comes in heaven... 

[Stuart Galbraith]

And you know this, because heaven sent you down as an angel.

 

[seahawk]

Well, that is how the religions from the middle east work. 

 

[JWB]

Looks like Ukraine has added electrical Plan to POL Plan:

 

[Josh]

They have been hitting utilities on and off. I am not sure why, unless they are trying to disrupt electricity to train lines.

[Roman Alymov]

22 hours ago, urbanoid said:

Even in your own source (wiki) there's a difference between those who declared (80%) and those who apparently ARE (71%) ethnic Russian, I have no idea what it means. 

    No idea who "ARE ethnic Russians" - the only source of info about ethnicity in modern RF is person's self identification (that is why we have thousands of "elfs" registered by census)

22 hours ago, urbanoid said:

I assume 'local muslims' include Chechens and the like too, you know, the people with a de facto country (and one to some extent ruled by the sharia law) that Moscow is paying off to pretend it won the war? Oh, sure, they display their loyalty right, left and center and will continue to do so as long as they consider it profitable. 

   Back to Russian "local Muslims"

https://youtu.be/83gCU0GD-bo

 

Edited November 9 by Roman Alymov

[JWB]

Ukrainian drones just struck Russia's massive Black Sea oil export terminal at the port of Tuapse. 

https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1987694517550448889

 

[JWB]

Earlier today, Ukrainian attack drones successfully penetrated roughly 1000 miles of Russian airspace to hit the Orsk Oil Refinery, damaging one of the facility's refining units. 

https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1988291228774133956

https://t.me/exilenova_plus/13704

[JWB]

One of China’s largest oil refining companies, "Yanchang Petroleum", has excluded Russian oil from its latest tender for deliveries between December and mid-February next year. The company usually purchased one batch of ESPO or Sokol crude each month. Reuters reports that the avoidance of Russian oil is linked to a series of Western sanctions.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/china-refiner-yanchang-petroleum-shuns-russian-oil-latest-tender-traders-say-2025-11-11/

[Josh]

I think the only way Russia loses this war is economically. This war might get to the point where they simply cannot afford it. And I think the key thing to watch is China, for two reasons: 1), China may or may not keep buying oil if secondary sanctions apply but much, much more importantly IMO 2), China represents about half of the global oil storage and stockpiling in the last year or two. That in and of itself is ominous and practically deserves its own thread. But the more bare bones economic forces outcome of that is that China is stocking up on cheap Russian oil for its strategic reserves, and eventually, regardless of Chinese thoughts and motivations, they will simply run out of storage space, the same as Russia has about now.

At that point, Ukrainian attacks are going to seem like pin pricks. Once the largest buyer of oil pulls back (And India looks like it already has backed out as number 2), and Russia is out of local storage space (pretty close already), especially at a time when there is a glut of oil on the high seas and in ever other inventory, Russian revenues drop like a brick, even without Ukrainian attacks on infrastructure.

One of the things China is doing to support Russia is buy excess oil and store it. When they run out of storage space, sanctions won’t matter.

Edited November 12 by Josh

[Sinistar]

earlier with trump sending signals about seizing the panama canal and the press or pundits or politicians all pointing to some insanity in it but there is a logic to what the administration may be thinking when you connect the dots:

 

these moves pointing towards venezuela which would deprive china from strategic positions in the western hemisphere- such as the oil and which would secure resources for the united states which europe lacks and cannot provide for itself

there is no way that is about drug cartels

then you change the department of defense to department of war

these signals all look connected within the greater scope of the war in europe and spilling over into the strategic framework vis a vis competition with china and brics and the global south pulled into this  orbit

in particular china which is far more of a strategic threat to the united states than russia no matter what happens in ukraine

 

even with the war in ukraine settled no matter the outcome the west has problems

 

you see the high debt loads abd high inflation and risky economies in the west

 

we continue to obsess over harming russia while ignoring crumbling infrastructure in cities in the united states and in europe and having all sorts of internal political and social problems

 

 

 

because europe is going to have a problem with what to do with whatever is left of ukraine afterwards- absorbing whatever is remaining while dealing with their own economic and political problems

this whole business about harming russia has harmed europe in the process

these leaders in the west have done all of this in the name vanity to somehow make themselves heroes in the story rather than actually understanding what they were messing with particularly as they do not even seem to be in the position to handle their own  problems let alone someone else's 

 

trump seems to be forward looking about this post war configuration by pulling out of ukraine and leaving it to the europeans

 

the question is then whether you see some fundamental changes in europe in all of this because what do they tell their public when there is nothing to show for it other than the burden that they have imposed on themselves

 

that is assuming it does not get a lot more destructive

you get macron deciding to go rogue or go in there with the british and who knows what could happen

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Josh]

55 minutes ago, Sinistar said:

earlier with trump sending signals about seizing the panama canal and the press or pundits or politicians all pointing to some insanity in it but there is a logic to what the administration may be thinking when you connect the dots:

 

these moves pointing towards venezuela which would deprive china from strategic positions in the western hemisphere- such as the oil and which would secure resources for the united states which europe lacks and cannot provide for itself

there is no way that is about drug cartels

then you change the department of defense to department of war

these signals all look connected within the greater scope of the war in europe and spilling over into the strategic framework vis a vis competition with china and brics and the global south pulled into this  orbit

in particular china which is far more of a strategic threat to the united states than russia no matter what happens in ukraine

 

even with the war in ukraine settled no matter the outcome the west has problems

 

you see the high debt loads abd high inflation and risky economies in the west

 

we continue to obsess over harming russia while ignoring crumbling infrastructure in cities in the united states and in europe and having all sorts of internal political and social problems

 

 

 

because europe is going to have a problem with what to do with whatever is left of ukraine afterwards- absorbing whatever is remaining while dealing with their own economic and political problems

this whole business about harming russia has harmed europe in the process

these leaders in the west have done all of this in the name vanity to somehow make themselves heroes in the story rather than actually understanding what they were messing with particularly as they do not even seem to be in the position to handle their own  problems let alone someone else's 

 

trump seems to be forward looking about this post war configuration by pulling out of ukraine and leaving it to the europeans

 

the question is then whether you see some fundamental changes in europe in all of this because what do they tell their public when there is nothing to show for it other than the burden that they have imposed on themselves

 

that is assuming it does not get a lot more destructive

you get macron deciding to go rogue or go in there with the british and who knows what could happen

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oh I think the west has problems. And so does Russia. And so does China.

 

As another poster put it….it is a race of cripples. And in the kingdom of the blind, the man with one eye is king.

Edited November 12 by Josh

[JWB]

More POL:

 

[JWB]

Putin should have thought things out more: