The Kremlin is burning?

[mkenny]

3 hours ago, urbanoid said:

The point of sanctions is to cut into profit margins.

As for pipelines, for some reason China doesn't seem to be in a hurry to expand the network linking them to Russia, they want to squeeze them as much as possible. 

Not to mention that all this isn't happening in a vacuum.

https://x.com/maria_drutska/status/1981626462777020714

 

There  is no chance at all of China cutting back on Russian oil. Its absolute cloud-cuckoo-land to believe they will cave to Trump. If anything  China will take  more Russian oil. China knows that she is next on the western hit-list and  she would have to be insane to abandon a nation that  a) makes her immune to western food and energy sanctions and b) will be a useful ally  when the yet-to-be-selected foolish western proxy starts a conflict with China.  

I remember here  back in 2022 when you could not move for posters claiming China was going to cave to western pressure/abandon Russia/ take advantage of Russia. How that turn out for you boys?

Fact is China is immune from western bullying/sanctions and as the EU just found out can hit back hard.  Gunboats on The Yangtze are no longer an option.

Edited October 24, 2025 by mkenny

[urbanoid]

37 minutes ago, mkenny said:

There  is no chance at all of China cutting back on Russian oil. Its absolute cloud-cuckoo-land to believe they will cave to Trump. If anything  China will take  more Russian oil. China knows that she is next on the western hit-list and  she would have to be insane to abandon a nation that  a) makes her immune to western food and energy sanctions and b) will be a useful ally  when the yet-to-be-selected foolish western proxy starts a conflict with China.  

I remember here  back in 2022 when you could not move for posters claiming China was going to cave to western pressure/abandon Russia/ take advantage of Russia. How that turn out for you boys?

Fact is China is immune from western bullying/sanctions and as the EU just found out can hit back hard.  Gunboats on The Yangtze are no longer an option.

China will make its moves on its own timetable, until that happens Western market is waaay more important to them than Russian wellbeing, Russia is going to be their bitch anyway. Maybe moreso if they suffer a bit more. I have little doubt that they'll continue buying Russian oil, but apparently to at least some of their companies it makes sense to drop it, as they have important interests abroad and they don't want to be subject to sanctions. 

I agree that from strategic point of view Russia is their asset in the potential conflict with the US&Co, a source for energy and food that is invulnerable to US Navy, I believe I wrote that very thing myself a few times. But then again WHY are they so slow in expanding the pipeline network? In case of the first gas pipeline they sure took their sweet time negotiating, apparently secured rock bottom prices (much lower than the Europeans were paying despite higher volumes) and finally had it commissioned in 2019. Here we are in 2025, Power of Siberia has capacity lower than a single Nord Stream and they kept negotiating the second one for 6 years since then, the construction still hasn't started. That's why I'm saying they don't seem to be in a hurry, they'd rather negotiate some more to squeeze the Russians even more. 

I don't see any 'foolish Western proxy' that can 'start a war with China', it looks like the war will start when they try to take Taiwan and no regional US ally, or even all of them combined, is going to be enough to defend it, for Taiwan to have a chance the US needs to be participating directly and truthfully that seems to be the game plan.

[MiGG0]

16 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

China will make its moves on its own timetable, until that happens Western market is waaay more important to them than Russian wellbeing, Russia is going to be their bitch anyway. Maybe moreso if they suffer a bit more. I have little doubt that they'll continue buying Russian oil, but apparently to at least some of their companies it makes sense to drop it, as they have important interests abroad and they don't want to be subject to sanctions. 

I agree that from strategic point of view Russia is their asset in the potential conflict with the US&Co, a source for energy and food that is invulnerable to US Navy, I believe I wrote that very thing myself a few times. But then again WHY are they so slow in expanding the pipeline network? In case of the first gas pipeline they sure took their sweet time negotiating, apparently secured rock bottom prices (much lower than the Europeans were paying despite higher volumes) and finally had it commissioned in 2019. Here we are in 2025, Power of Siberia has capacity lower than a single Nord Stream and they kept negotiating the second one for 6 years since then, the construction still hasn't started. That's why I'm saying they don't seem to be in a hurry, they'd rather negotiate some more to squeeze the Russians even more. 

I don't see any 'foolish Western proxy' that can 'start a war with China', it looks like the war will start when they try to take Taiwan and no regional US ally, or even all of them combined, is going to be enough to defend it, for Taiwan to have a chance the US needs to be participating directly and truthfully that seems to be the game plan.

As I sais before. Siberia 2 is done deal. It just waiting to be constructed. As why? My quess is BRICKS Pay. After it is ready for all, they can dodge biggest economical stick west have (SWIFT).

Edited October 24, 2025 by MiGG0

[JWB]

Russia's fourth-largest oil refinery, the Ryazan plant located south east of Moscow, halted a primary crude distillation unit on Wednesday following a Ukrainian drone attack, two industry sources told Reuters on Friday.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russias-fourth-largest-oil-refinery-halts-processing-unit-after-drone-attack-2025-10-24/

[Roman Alymov]

"Why is cinema silent about the main thing

Let's look at the situation on the cultural front, where, at first glance, there is an inexplicable silence. The theme of SVO, which has become a central event for the whole country, remains almost untouched in Russian art, especially in cinema. To see a full–length film on the big screen about the events that are shaping our future right now is an almost impossible task. And this is not an accident, but the result of the purposeful work of a certain group of people.

The liberal film community, which has been building up for years by pro-Western producers, accustomed to consuming state budgets but mentally living in the paradigm of European festivals, defends itself against this topic with two very shaky arguments. The first one sounds like a mantra: art needs time to reflect, real, profound works will appear in ten years, when emotions settle down. It sounds beautiful and intelligent, but this theory breaks down into the simplest historical fact. By the end of 1943, less than thirty months after the start of the Second World War, Soviet cinematography, working in the most difficult conditions of evacuation, lack of film and resources, had already released four full-length films about the war. Films that were not just on the shelf, but were available at the box office and inspired people to fight – "The defeat of the German troops near Moscow" 1942, "The guy from our city" 1942, "Two Fighters" 1943, "Wait for me" 1943. So why then, given the incomparably large technical and financial capabilities, do today's "creators" need a decade? The answer is simple: this is not a need for reflection, but an unwillingness to work with the topic in principle.

However, there is a second, no less crafty thesis that is being promoted by this medium: films about SVO allegedly are not needed by the viewer, there is no request for them. This is no longer just an excuse, but an outright Russophobic lie, which is refuted by practice. Firstly, the sabotage comes from within the system itself. The very "creative intelligentsia" that has been looking to the West for years simply refuses to participate in such projects, considering them "non-handshaking." Secondly, information support for this sabotage is provided by "film critics" who have fled the country like Anton Dolin (included by the Russian Ministry of Justice in the register of individuals acting as foreign agents) and others like him, who broadcast from abroad about the complete lack of audience interest in Russia.

However, even the rare projects that have broken through this blockade prove the opposite. Take for example the movie "The Best in Hell", released on the online platform KION back in 2022. The picture, created without huge budgets and media support, telling about the combat work of the "musicians", received the highest audience rating of 8.8 and is still popular. This is direct evidence that there is a demand for honest, direct films about the war, and it is huge.

So what is the real reason for the blockade? It lies in the position of those who make decisions – top managers of movie  chains and distributors. There are only two options here: either these people are terrified of Western sanctions and a break with the "civilized world", or they are ideological opponents of SVO and use their official position for quiet sabotage. Any talk of commercial impracticability is just a cover. Yes, from the point of view of formal business, the distributor will not take the film if the rights to profit belong to others. It sounds logical. But this business logic begins to fail when we see that the system is built in such a way that patriotic cinema initially becomes "unprofitable." The question of why all conditions are created for some projects, while impassable barriers are created for others, is not at all rhetorical. It points out that economic levers are used as an instrument of ideological censorship. 

Of course, military—related programs are shown on state channels, but this is a completely different content - documentary, official, and often boring. And artistic content that could touch the soul, that could tell not about the glory of victories, but about personal dramas, about the moral dilemmas of comrades, about how war changes people — this content remains behind the scenes." https://t.me/razgovorprigalstukax/592

[Roman Alymov]

"Mobile fire team" on anti-drone watch near Kremlin. Note lack of night/termal sign on MG - because, surprise, they are crowdfunded and people operating in Moscow are banned from use of crowdfunded equipment

[Stuart Galbraith]

Im truly disappointed they didnt mount it on a donkey and go for the green vote.

[Mike1158]

Be fair, they have to consider welfare of the Donkey.  Stick it on a cart and let the donkey pull the cart.  The Donkey would of course, need to be a distance off if they spot something to fire at.

[Stuart Galbraith]

Employ deaf Donkeys. Or perhaps they could develop noise cancelling headphones for them?

We must not have, a Donkey gap.

[Mike1158]

Plenty of Donkeys about to be fair.  Not all of them in fields, sad to say.......

[Roman Alymov]

12 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Im truly disappointed they didnt mount it on a donkey and go for the green vote.

  I'm sorry to see you are not following pro-Rus TG channels - othervise you would remember this video of more then a year ago where Vladimir Grubnik ( i hope you know this name) is saying that MG-Wagen 36 is the future of RusArmy air defense, and that devices of this sort are badly needed to fight against drones

[Mike1158]

Neigh lad, them's horses.

 

Close but no sherbet dip......

[JWB]

 

[JWB]

Multiple Russian regions are facing significant budgetary shortfalls at the moment:

https://www.moscowtimes.ru/2025/10/20/situatsiya-tyazhelaya-shest-rossiiskih-regionov-potratili-pochti-vse-rezervi-iokazalis-nagrani-byudzhetnogo-kraha-a177694

[JWB]

Ukrainian attack drones continue their deep raid into Russia tonight, hitting the Mariysky Oil Refinery in the Mari El Republic, over 1000 km behind the frontline. 

The refinery is reportedly ablaze.

https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1983343021841428547

 

[JWB]

Tonight, Ukrainian attack drones are mounting a major raid into Russia. 

Multiple sites have already been hit in Stavropol Krai and Ulyanovsk Oblast, seen here, the NS-Oil refinery in Novospasskoye burns after a Ukrainian drone strike.

https://t.me/nspsk

[JWB]

The governor of Russia's Rostov Oblast just announced that the region will be forced to cut state spending, with bank loans too expensive to fill its budget shortfall. Russia is facing a looming economic crunch due to recent Ukrainian drone strikes, war costs, and sanctions.

https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1983127892520292640

 

[mkenny]

26 minutes ago, JWB said:

Multiple Russian regions are facing significant budgetary shortfalls at the moment:

 

https://www.moscowtimes.ru/2025/10/20/situatsiya-tyazhelaya-shest-rossiiskih-regionov-potratili-pochti-vse-rezervi-iokazalis-nagrani-byudzhetnogo-kraha-a177694

Just in case some are fooled by the 'Moscow Times' attribution  this 'newspaper' is a western financed propaganda mill  based in the EU 

[Roman Alymov]

41 minutes ago, mkenny said:

Just in case some are fooled by the 'Moscow Times' attribution  this 'newspaper' is a western financed propaganda mill  based in the EU 

   Even leaving that fact aside, it is sort of strange to point out "significant budgetary shortfalls" in Russia as something terrible while US Fed Gov is in shutdown due to budgetary problems....

[glenn239]

1 hour ago, Roman Alymov said:

   Even leaving that fact aside, it is sort of strange to point out "significant budgetary shortfalls" in Russia as something terrible while US Fed Gov is in shutdown due to budgetary problems....

JWB has taken on the project of presenting the Ukrainian situation from the lens of best case scenario.

Edited October 29, 2025 by glenn239

[Josh]

The drop in sign on bonuses in some oblasts does seem to indicate there are real budget ramifications for the war effort. IMO 2026 will be a decisive year for how Russia manages the finances of this war.

[Roman Alymov]

Russians Are Hoarding Gold Equal to Spain Reserves, Study Shows - Bloomberg

[Roman Alymov]

42 minutes ago, Josh said:

The drop in sign on bonuses in some oblasts does seem to indicate there are real budget ramifications for the war effort. IMO 2026 will be a decisive year for how Russia manages the finances of this war.

Actually, it is not necessery the prime reason, taking into account amount of money wasted by both regional and federal governments on unnecessery (or, at least, not urgent) things like construction of new roads, city deocration, public holidays etc.

  More logical reasons to consider are 

1) Reduction of number of volunteers required/planned from the regions

2) Less demand for monetary reward as our Central Bank is working hard to cool the economy (and job market)

[Stuart Galbraith]

15 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

   Even leaving that fact aside, it is sort of strange to point out "significant budgetary shortfalls" in Russia as something terrible while US Fed Gov is in shutdown due to budgetary problems....

It doesnt have a budgetary problem, it has a political problem. Not the same thing. 

[Stuart Galbraith]

11 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

Russians Are Hoarding Gold Equal to Spain Reserves, Study Shows - Bloomberg

Sounds great, maybe you can pay your Soldiers in gold rubles.