The Kremlin is burning?

[Sinistar]

21 minutes ago, Josh said:

Not particularly significant even if true. We have seen lots of reports of troops being surrounded from both sides, it rarely seems to pan out, probably because maneuver warfare is almost impossible for either side.

 

 there is maneuver warfare from the standpoint the front in the most active areas is extremely dynamic- albeit in small increments often contained within a few kilometers 

which is not the popular conception that it should behave like a cold war battle 

 

envelopments encircle envelopments, flanking attempts are themselves outflanked and threatened with capture

 

like a chessboard: progress is not particularly in the forward direction- it is sideways, backwards and forwards to and fro

you might create a pocket and attempt to draw the opponent into a fire sack or abandon that if he does not take the bait and instead attempts to get behind that and so on

 

similar to an mc escher sketch- what you consider attacker or defender is a matter of perspective- i.e., is it a penetration or an entrapment

what is the background and what is the foreground is perspective or whether it is a black lamp or two white faces in profile

 

often the results are not clear until after several weeks or several months time you compare the movement of the front line from where it was weeks ago rather and then you see the difference in change

which is not as apparent in the daily grind but which is what maybe creates this illusion that it is static

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited October 23, 2025 by Sinistar

[Stuart Galbraith]

12 minutes ago, Josh said:

Not particularly significant even if true. We have seen lots of reports of troops being surrounded from both sides, it rarely seems to pan out, probably because maneuver warfare is almost impossible for either side.

Ukraine will only win a peace at the cash register, not the battlefield. I admit to being pleasantly surprised by Trumps new sanctions; apparently Putin can embarrass him only so many times before he decides perhaps Russia has never wanted an end to this conflict all along.

I posted that nearly a month ago. They are still surrounded.

[Stuart Galbraith]

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Edited October 23, 2025 by Stuart Galbraith

[MiGG0]

19 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

I posted that nearly a month ago. They are still surrounded.

No, they are not. There is not single evidence of it. Unless ”surrounded” in context that their supply lines are under drone strikes. But that includes whole front in about 10-15km deep, everywhere and for both sides.

Edited October 23, 2025 by MiGG0

[glenn239]

20 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

I have not seen any news about "chemical plant outside Moscow last night". May be you mean chemical plant in Bryansk region - but it is ~400km from Moscow.

      I see no specific "Russian public reaction"   -we are at 4th year of big war (and 8 years of low intensity war before that), so it is strange to expect some changes of public mood. Generally, it is sort of "West is waging  war at us, and our leadership is too weak and pro-Western to really fight the war".

Thanks.  I see a report yesterday that a major Russian mobilization is taking place to improve security and air defenses.  Any information on that would be interesting - are they intending to set up large numbers of field teams with shoulder fired missiles and netted into the AD network?   

[Josh]

Probably a lot easier to simply base new AD units as point defense around known targets. Minimal warning is needed if the incoming are flying right at you.

[MiGG0]

13 minutes ago, Josh said:

Probably a lot easier to simply base new AD units as point defense around known targets. Minimal warning is needed if the incoming are flying right at you.

There just is way more potential manpad crews than AD units to protect more targets.

[Roman Alymov]

4 hours ago, glenn239 said:

Thanks.  I see a report yesterday that a major Russian mobilization is taking place to improve security and air defenses.  Any information on that would be interesting - are they intending to set up large numbers of field teams with shoulder fired missiles and netted into the AD network?   

It is not "major" and not exactly "mobilization" at all since it is only about men who have signed special "reserve contracts"  - they are payed some amount of money every month to stay in active reserve, meaning ready to turn up for service when called up. But yes it is major development as it is another step to what our post-Soviet governments were shit scared since 1991 (and 1993): armed citizens. Imagine the group where former Wagner servicemen are mixed with Strelkov's militia volunteeras and regular army officers who have left active service as they are dissatisfied with bureoucracy and corruption, and all of them acting in or arounf their home town where their families are suffering from state-supportted migrant gangs (like AM or AZ ones) or just Central Asia migrants, where local rich are using their corrupt links with officials to steal budgets.....  One day they might decide that NATO drones are not the only danger they have to protect their families from.

     Not clear how they would be used, most likely it will be sort of "mobile fire teams" (as they were created by pro-Ukrainaisn years ago) with machine guns on pickup trucks or on fixed positions around potential targets. As far as i understand, they will be payed and supplied by regional governmets, but let's wait and see for practical steps.

[Roman Alymov]

4 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

I posted that nearly a month ago. They are still surrounded.

The very concept of "surrounded" on the battlefield where isolated tiny groups of infantry (or even individual soldiers) are operating from one ruibed basement to another is strange. Here are few maps - who is surrounding who on them?

https://t.me/boris_rozhin/184371

[Roman Alymov]

On 10/21/2025 at 5:16 PM, Stuart Galbraith said:

Well if you are Zelensky, there is the half dozen times Putin has tried to kill him for starters. Thats what we know about for sure.

   Well, since " we know about for sure" -i'm sure it would not be difficult for you to provide the list of this "half dozen times"? uch list would be major boost for Putin inside RF, since here he is accused of preventing RusArmy strikes that could potentially harm top officials of Kiev regime and their Western guests. Including well known case when pro-Rus drone was filming parked motorkade of Zelensky&Co, but no actions were taken....

[mkenny]

Times Radio is (as it has been every week for the last 3 years)  predicting imminent Russian  doom.

 

 

[mkenny]

 

Bizarro world  version of reality

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Stuart Galbraith]

14 hours ago, MiGG0 said:

No, they are not. There is not single evidence of it. Unless ”surrounded” in context that their supply lines are under drone strikes. But that includes whole front in about 10-15km deep, everywhere and for both sides.

https://www.livetube.tv/news/video-hundreds-of-russian-troops-surrender-in-pokrovsk-plus-british-storm-shadow-missiles-hit-russia

In fairness a lot fewer surrendering than the headline implies, and we have absolutely no idea how many they are still there. But there are several reports of Russian troops surrounded and trying to break out, and how there is video proportedly of some of them trying to surrender. Considerably more evidence than ever offered of Russia being on the cusp of victory, yet in this context, clearly the paucity will not do for its counter to narrative, that Russia is winning.

Well yes, if you are unable to move and are pinned down by drones, in the modern context that is  surrounded. The British forced pinned down by Boer fire on Spion Kopf were not technically surrounded by troops either, but being dominated by fire, that hardly mattered.

Edited October 24, 2025 by Stuart Galbraith

[MiGG0]

1 hour ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

https://www.livetube.tv/news/video-hundreds-of-russian-troops-surrender-in-pokrovsk-plus-british-storm-shadow-missiles-hit-russia

In fairness a lot fewer surrendering than the headline implies, and we have absolutely no idea how many they are still there. But there are several reports of Russian troops surrounded and trying to break out, and how there is video proportedly of some of them trying to surrender. Considerably more evidence than ever offered of Russia being on the cusp of victory, yet in this context, clearly the paucity will not do for its counter to narrative, that Russia is winning.

Well yes, if you are unable to move and are pinned down by drones, in the modern context that is  surrounded. The British forced pinned down by Boer fire on Spion Kopf were not technically surrounded by troops either, but being dominated by fire, that hardly mattered.

This is just for UKR succesfull counter attack of Kucheriv Yar. Those small settlemets at the area  have changes hands multiple times. 

In that surrounded context UKR controlled Shakhiva, Pokrovs, Myrnohrad, Rodynske, etc have been surrounded long time.... (and to be honest they are falling at the moment for RUS):
 

 

Edited October 24, 2025 by MiGG0

[urbanoid]

Nothing to see here, move along

[MiGG0]

36 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

Nothing to see here, move along

I suspect it is just moved to "shadow fleets" and to pipelines (after new ones are ready).

[Mighty_Zuk]

Focusing on the ground warfare misses the point IMO. 

Everything until a major breakthrough is rather meaningless, and until then the strategic level and strikes are more important.

@MiGG0 That's the point. Forcing sanctioned targets to constantly put up additional facades that each cost money and eat into revenues. Usually getting an adversary to completely halt exports is seen as counter-productive.

Edited October 24, 2025 by Mighty_Zuk

[MiGG0]

17 minutes ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

Focusing on the ground warfare misses the point IMO. 

Everything until a major breakthrough is rather meaningless, and until then the strategic level and strikes are more important.

@MiGG0 That's the point. Forcing sanctioned targets to constantly put up additional facades that each cost money and eat into revenues. Usually getting an adversary to completely halt exports is seen as counter-productive.

 In the simplest form "Shadow Fleet" ships are just ships insured somewhere else than western companies. Not necessarily more complicated/expensive (but can be). In case of China as it still buys (those same companies) RUS oil/gas from pipes, they can use just ships that are not insured in western countries.

New pipes on other hand are just investments' that would happen most likely anyway.

Edited October 24, 2025 by MiGG0

[urbanoid]

35 minutes ago, MiGG0 said:

I suspect it is just moved to "shadow fleets" and to pipelines (after new ones are ready).

The point of sanctions is to cut into profit margins.

As for pipelines, for some reason China doesn't seem to be in a hurry to expand the network linking them to Russia, they want to squeeze them as much as possible. 

Not to mention that all this isn't happening in a vacuum.

https://x.com/maria_drutska/status/1981626462777020714

 

[MiGG0]

11 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

The point of sanctions is to cut into profit margins.

As for pipelines, for some reason China doesn't seem to be in a hurry to expand the network linking them to Russia, they want to squeeze them as much as possible. 

Not to mention that all this isn't happening in a vacuum.

https://x.com/maria_drutska/status/1981626462777020714

 

Look my earlier reply, it wont nesessarily do that. And RUS-China has already started to build new pipelines (ie Siberia 2).

 

”Isolated” is just kind of misleading. Other countries are forced (iow ”blackmailed”) to do so swimging the big stick of SWIFT. That will end when BRICKS Pay gomes fully available to rest if the world (BRICKs countries get it end of this year).

Edited October 24, 2025 by MiGG0

[urbanoid]

2 minutes ago, MiGG0 said:

Look my earlier reply, it wont nesessarily do that. And RUS-China has already started to build new pipelines (ie Siberia 2)

I don't have the info that the construction of Power of Siberia 2 has already started, I think it's still in the planned/proposed/being negotiated stage. But even if it was it's still years away from actually pumping gas to China (and likely for prices which are not even close to what the Europeans paid, even the Russlandverstehers with 'special' prices).

As I said, China doesn't seem to be in a hurry here (which btw. is something of a mystery to me). 

[MiGG0]

36 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

I don't have the info that the construction of Power of Siberia 2 has already started, I think it's still in the planned/proposed/being negotiated stage. But even if it was it's still years away from actually pumping gas to China (and likely for prices which are not even close to what the Europeans paid, even the Russlandverstehers with 'special' prices).

As I said, China doesn't seem to be in a hurry here (which btw. is something of a mystery to me). 

Not physically started but legally binding contract was signed september this year. Point was that China i snot really afraid of sanctions and continue to use ships to portion that at the moment cannot get from pipes. -> All this "media victory" of sanctions is just for show.

Edited October 24, 2025 by MiGG0

[Stefan Kotsch]

27 minutes ago, MiGG0 said:

All this "media victory" of sanctions is just for show.

The Russian specialist media paint a different picture. The destructive effect of the sanctions is openly acknowledged by many industry's media.

@Natural, Russia will not perish in the process. After all, North Korea, for example, is still alive.

Edited October 24, 2025 by Stefan Kotsch

[MiGG0]

4 minutes ago, Stefan Kotsch said:

The Russian specialist media paint a different picture. The destructive effect of the sanctions is openly acknowledged by many industry's media.

 And It would be if it would be true. Many western analyst have conclude it is just time for China to rearrange it western insured tankers to "shadow fleet" tankers, in which point west cant stop tankers directly (They can sanction China but trump does that every other day and China really are not afraid of it). Pipeline oil/gas flows continuously whole time...

Edited October 24, 2025 by MiGG0

[seahawk]

You are wrong. The sanctions are working perfectly. European energy prices are exploding, economy is in a deep recession, OPEC and US are making big money and the Europeans are happily paying them for it. Russia was a natural and reliable partner fir Europe and a needed counter balance to US domination. 

Sadly European politcians do not have the will to work with Russia, Ukraine is a worthless shithole and Russia is a huge market.