The Kremlin is burning?

[Mike1158]

Domino's?

 

No pineapple thanks.

[Josh]

1 hour ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Ukrainians would be willing to lose a squadron to kill the son of a bitch. And over the Black sea of course, no reason no to have Awacs on hand to give them a datalink. 'Oh that! Darn, we forgot to turn it off.'

Anyway, it appears that after talking to Lavrov, they have gone told on it because they Russians still have a maximalist approach. No deal when someone just wants to win.

Europe and the U.S. would actively try to prevent it if anything. But despite Urbanoids disagreement, I think Ukraine would take a serious interest in mapping out the return flight when no deal is reached.

[Josh]

1 hour ago, urbanoid said:

Any replacement would likely be more radical, not necessarily because they want to, but because they'd feel they have to, especially that their predecessor was killed by the enemy they're waging a war against. That plus the fact that the position of the replacement wouldn't have been nearly as strong as Putin's is, so they'd have to make up for that with 'hawkishness'. 

I did not say that it was a good idea or would shorten the war. I just think Ukraine would do it anyway.

[urbanoid]

1 minute ago, Josh said:

I did not say that it was a good idea or would shorten the war. I just think Ukraine would do it anyway.

 

4 minutes ago, Josh said:

Europe and the U.S. would actively try to prevent it if anything. But despite Urbanoids disagreement, I think Ukraine would take a serious interest in mapping out the return flight when no deal is reached.

Why?

[Josh]

3 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

 

Why?

Spite. Certainly if I were Putin I would not want to roll those dice.

Edited October 21, 2025 by Josh

[Stuart Galbraith]

10 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

 

Why?

Well if you are Zelensky, there is the half dozen times Putin has tried to kill him for starters. Thats what we know about for sure. Turn about is only fair.

But secondly, if you wanted to cause utter chaos in Russia, the best way is to remove Putin from the job. Think of all the different people that would want the job, or at the very least safeguard their positions. if you want to screw Russia up, put it in the hands of Dimitri Medvedev.

I see no reason not to. Its the hardest way hit to Russia, and so frigging easy. 

(edit) Another thought occurs. If it happens, then the Russians will instantly assume the Americans were behind it. The very least that happens, it kills Trumps efforts to give Donbas to Russia. Russia will perceive America as a grand enemy and refuse to negotiate further. Which, and its just a personal opinion, negotiating is their own way to survive this war.

 

 

 

Edited October 21, 2025 by Stuart Galbraith

[Josh]

It would be a huge risk for Ukraine, in that there would almost certainly be backlash from Trump, if not from Europe.

It would also almost certainly bring an even more nationalistic leader to power for all the reasons Urbanoid stated, though there might be a relatively drawn out period of blood letting before that happened. The war would keep going as is in the meantime; I cannot imagine any quarter of the Russian government or military attempting to end it until they knew who was on top in Moscow.

It is an idea that has almost no upside, but if the opportunity somehow fell into Ukraine’s lap, I could easily see them taking it.

Edited October 21, 2025 by Josh

[Stuart Galbraith]

Reminds me of Operation Foxley, the SOE effort to assassinate Hitler. We didnt pull the plug on it because we thought the Germans could come up with a worse leader. The only reason why didnt do it is by the time we figured all the pieces out, Hitler didnt go to Berchtesgaden anymore.

For me, I dont see a worse Russian leader than Putin emerging. Even Strelkov, unlikely though that is, would be a step up, because he actually seemingly appreciates the limits of Russian military power. The worst you would be likely to get is a ceasefire pending the next war, and I think the West has a far greater ability to scale up than Russia.

This was a war engineered by Putin, and it will die with Putin. And yes, there are risks. Personally I think the war linger on and potentially become a nuclear crisis is a far greater one. Take the shot.

 

[Josh]

10 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Reminds me of Operation Foxley, the SOE effort to assassinate Hitler. We didnt pull the plug on it because we thought the Germans could come up with a worse leader. The only reason why didnt do it is by the time we figured all the pieces out, Hitler didnt go to Berchtesgaden anymore.

For me, I dont see a worse Russian leader than Putin emerging. Even Strelkov, unlikely though that is, would be a step up, because he actually seemingly appreciates the limits of Russian military power. The worst you would be likely to get is a ceasefire pending the next war, and I think the West has a far greater ability to scale up than Russia.

This was a war engineered by Putin, and it will die with Putin. And yes, there are risks. Personally I think the war linger on and potentially become a nuclear crisis is a far greater one. Take the shot.

 

How would Putin’s death change anything? In Hitlers case, there was an existential threat at the gates and a competent military caste who saw that and wanted to end the war before its inevitable conclusion; none of that is present in Russia.

[JWB]

Russia's Novokuibyshevsk oil refinery stops processing after drone attack, sources say.

https://www.reuters.com/world/russias-novokuibyshevsk-oil-refinery-stops-processing-after-drone-attack-sources-2025-10-20/

 

[urbanoid]

1 hour ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

This was a war engineered by Putin, and it will die with Putin. And yes, there are risks. Personally I think the war linger on and potentially become a nuclear crisis is a far greater one. Take the shot.

 

No, it will not.

2 hours ago, Josh said:

It is an idea that has almost no upside, but if the opportunity somehow fell into Ukraine’s lap, I could easily see them taking it.

I disagree, largely because I don't consider them to be insane.

[Mike1158]

IMHO, there are sufficient stable personalities in the chain of command that IF the put in, went all red button on them, he might find that migraine cure he always wanted.

 

Short, sharp and exquisite.  After that the shooting match starts all over again and the Yeltsin/Gorbachev incident will be considered a mere splat on the windshield.

[Roman Alymov]

"21.10.2025, 13:38
VTsIOM: almost 70% of Russians surveyed are ready to save money for the sake of protecting the country
According to the All-Russian Center for the Study of Public Opinion (VTsIOM), 69% of Russians surveyed are ready to limit their needs and save money to protect their homeland. Seven out of ten respondents feel personally responsible for the fate of the Fatherland.

According to the survey results, 45% of respondents expressed full agreement with the need for self-restraint for the sake of national security, another 24% rather agree with this statement. At the same time, 10% of respondents partially disagree, 14% took a fundamentally negative position, and 7% found it difficult to answer. The margin of error of the study does not exceed 2.5%.

VTsIOM experts note that in the context of growing international tensions and new challenges, high public confidence in the army and pride in the country's military power remain especially important — both of these positions are supported by 80% of respondents. The center emphasizes that modern patriotism takes on an active character: emotional feelings are replaced by concrete actions and a willingness to endure hardships for the sake of the well-being of the Motherland.

The study was conducted using a telephone interview method based on a random stratified sample of mobile numbers. 1.6 thousand adult citizens of the country participated in it." 

https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/8139612

   Note it is despite of all Soloviev&Co propaganda of "no need for extra efforts, it is noit war  - just SVO, relax and wait for deal with Trump".

    Also, the very fact of this survey results published is indication of degradation of "Appeasement of the West" party (who are using the argument "We can't afford war as it will result in living standards falling and population rising up" as main tool in internal political debate).

[Josh]

I consider most polling a suspect unless the entire methodologies posted and I consider any attempt to determine what Russians actually feel hopeless in a political climate where publicly speaking out agate war is against the law.

This is not to say Russians are not pro war - it is quite possible considering the parade of lies government controlled media presents them. It is just to say that I doubt anyone, including Russians, can accurately measure such things in that political/security environment.

[glenn239]

12 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

"21.10.2025, 13:38
VTsIOM: almost 70% of Russians surveyed are ready to save money for the sake of protecting the country
According to the All-Russian Center for the Study of Public Opinion (VTsIOM), 69% of Russians surveyed are ready to limit their needs and save money to protect their homeland. Seven out of ten respondents feel personally responsible for the fate of the Fatherland.

Roman - what's the Russian public reaction to the Stormshadow attack on the Russian chemical plant outside Moscow last night?  Sounds like the plant got hammered.

[JWB]

Another pin prick:

 

 

[Roman Alymov]

7 hours ago, glenn239 said:

Roman - what's the Russian public reaction to the Stormshadow attack on the Russian chemical plant outside Moscow last night?  Sounds like the plant got hammered.

I have not seen any news about "chemical plant outside Moscow last night". May be you mean chemical plant in Bryansk region - but it is ~400km from Moscow.

      I see no specific "Russian public reaction"   -we are at 4th year of big war (and 8 years of low intensity war before that), so it is strange to expect some changes of public mood. Generally, it is sort of "West is waging  war at us, and our leadership is too weak and pro-Western to really fight the war".

[Roman Alymov]

1 hour ago, JWB said:

Another pin prick:

 

 

I wonder in what way at best one(!) drone reaching the plant and causing no damage except shrapnel hits to parked cars (even pro-Ukrainians can't show fire or destruction on their channels) is "successfully striking". We do not know how many drones were launched - but at least one drone crashed in empty unfinished building in residential area of Mahachkala

and one more drone was filmed shot down over rural area by local man with hunting rifle

https://t.me/dva_majors/81826

[Josh]

2 hours ago, JWB said:

Another pin prick:

 

 

That strike is interesting in that it directly impacted a cracking tower. Have not seen that before. Could just be random chance, but also could mean some kind of terminal guidance is being used if we see it happen a couple times.

[Stuart Galbraith]

On 10/21/2025 at 5:50 PM, urbanoid said:

No, it will not.

I disagree, largely because I don't consider them to be insane.

This one will.

That is a different matter from the death of Russian nationalism, which is a problem that will likely fill out the rest of the century. The last Russian mania did.

 

[JWB]

This looks a little more serious:

 

[Stuart Galbraith]

Well its sanctioned now.

 

[urbanoid]

A really short window between announcing sanctions and implementing them, impressive.

[Stuart Galbraith]

Can we sanction Lavrov and Putin? Just keeping the ball rolling...

[Josh]

On 9/26/2025 at 5:30 PM, Stuart Galbraith said:

They have had several hundred troops surrounded  for a month, 3800 troops killed, and even reports of heavy artillery destroyed. When was the lastt time we saw anyone surrounded in this war?

No, its not a fairly minor reverse. This is the cumulative of the summer reverse and its a bit of a disaster.

 

Not particularly significant even if true. We have seen lots of reports of troops being surrounded from both sides, it rarely seems to pan out, probably because maneuver warfare is almost impossible for either side.

Ukraine will only win a peace at the cash register, not the battlefield. I admit to being pleasantly surprised by Trumps new sanctions; apparently Putin can embarrass him only so many times before he decides perhaps Russia has never wanted an end to this conflict all along.