The Kremlin is burning?

[bojan]

One was, either a pilot error or friendly fire.

[txtree99]

I know one was destroyed and the pilot was killed, but that does not mean that the rest of them are useless.    My understanding is they are performing CAP missions.   

https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/1858337231229817034?s=61&t=IZXtqtU-ivwfbke5UMfWTA

 

[Sinistar]

56 minutes ago, txtree99 said:

I read that the f16’s are doing CAP and are successful in anti drone.   Where did you read that all the F16 were destroyed?

 

 

when i said that 'they are all dead', i am not saying they have all been destroyed

 

it was a rhetorical statement that if the f-16s were launched into russian air space in order to force a decisive air battle or to strike targets on the ground, they are likely all dead at that point, or before it even happens if they were killed on the flight line or in their shelters and hangars if they are within range of missiles and drones

 

both sides have generally pulled their aircraft so that they are out of range from one another, because both sides risk  losses which are unnecessary given that there are other solutions available which do not place their aircraft and their pilots at risk, eg. missiles, drones, glide bombs

 

generally they are operating in small sections or groups or individually, but you are not seeing air battles, or deep strikes or close air support type missions, you are not seeing any evidence of it from aircraft shot down, captured POWs and so on, which is what you would expect to see

 

 

 

[txtree99]

I think you are reading too much into the deployment of the F16 they have.  They only have a small fleet.   I doubt that they or the upcoming French mirage 2000’s are going to be game changers 

[Sinistar]

the f-16s are only one example. the same would be true if it is french mirage or russian mig-29s

 

the push for f-16s were never going to change anything for the same reasons that i am describing which is true for any other aircraft of the same or similar analogue

 

all i can do is repeat the question: where are you seeing the large employment of aircraft from either side as in large campaigns

 

you are not seeing it like that. there is no evidence of it.

 

the aircraft losses on both sides are relatively light, uneven and scattered

[txtree99]

So what’s your point?   

[Sinistar]

stated in the first post on this subject which is where we end up here

 

- that ukraine is not 'held back' in the sense that they are deliberately being prevented from winning

both sides have generally withheld their aircraft for legitimate military objectives, given the threat environment combined with the availability of cheap, high performance munitions which can perform similar missions as multi-role aircraft

 

for example, a half dozen ATACMS are launched at a russian air defense battery defending an airbase rather than a launching their aircraft to suppress the target. most of the ATACMs are shot down, but one or two hit the target

 

so you see what the better tradeoff is- if those ATACMS were expensive manned aircraft, you just lost most of them perhaps for the gain of destroying air defense radar or battery- which is not a good trade. you just saw a real world example of this recently. likewise the russians use long range drones and missiles to cripple ukrainian energy or air defense or things like HIMARS and so on

 

again, the proliferation of much cheaper mass produced missiles and drones, or old dumb munitions retroactively fitted with cheap guidance kits are what has changed things so that the air craft are not performing most of the tasks as what would have been the case in the past

 

the aircraft risk getting shot down or come under fire at their airbases before they are able to launch in the first place. this is why both sides have pulled apart and are not fighting the war like that at this stage

[txtree99]

Still do not see what your point is. 

[Sinistar]

if there is anyone who believes that for some reason that there are decisions being made to prevent ukraine from winning- that is, holding back or being held back, then my original point was that is not the case. often there is this idea that for example, ukraine's acquired f-16s to launch attacks into russian territorry are being withheld over a false belief that it would escalate the war in some way which would cause putin to react

 

i said that was not the case, there is nothing being withheld in that sense. that there are rational calculations involved for not deploying large air forces tasked with certain mission goals. the guided munitions are doing most of that anyway without loss to aircraft and aircrews

 

both sides have withheld their aircraft from performing risky missions which are better accomplished by these munitions

 

nothing is being withheld for any other reason than that. both sides are behaving in a similar way like that- it is foolish to send aircraft into defended airspace or collect a strike group at an airbase within range of missiles, drones and so on when there has been a considerable evolution of new battlefield weapons which do  the same thing at scale- cheaper, more efficiently

 

[urbanoid]

What is it about, @Roman Alymov ?

https://x.com/igorsushko/status/1862732460192313745

[Roman Alymov]

4 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

What is it about, @Roman Alymov ?

https://x.com/igorsushko/status/1862732460192313745

I can't see it without VPN and is too lazy to install it now, so could you please copy the text/content here?

[urbanoid]

Just now, Roman Alymov said:

I can't see it without VPN and is too lazy to install it now, so could you please copy the text/content here?

'Russia: Putin regime enforcers raided 3 largest Moscow nightclubs on Friday night — Simachev, Mutabor/ARMA and Mono. Many men taken to the military conscription offices. Women eventually released after their passports were photographed. Raids with police K9s lasted for hours.'

'Reports that hundreds of men were taken away by police from nightclubs around Moscow on Friday night.'

'The raids on Moscow nightclubs began at around 2am on Friday night - just 7 hours ago, and the situation last for many hours. There was reportedly a never-ending flow of police paddy wagons with cannon fodder getting loaded up.'

'Little footage so far of the Friday raids on Moscow clubs to collect cannon fodder for the invasion of Ukraine, probably because people are terrified and in shock. "It's terrifying to feel vulnerable on your own home soil. They didn't care who they put face down — men, women, they didn't care. It was terrifying. Very terrifying. Don't know how much longer the others will be detained. We are slowly heading home, but the experience... wouldn't ever want to repeat that. I don't know by what miracle they let us go..."'

There are also vids from inside and outside the nightclubs, plus there's a video with a woman saying what is written in the last paragraph.

[seahawk]

It was pro-western night clubs.

[Roman Alymov]

1 minute ago, urbanoid said:

'Russia: Putin regime enforcers raided 3 largest Moscow nightclubs on Friday night — Simachev, Mutabor/ARMA and Mono. Many men taken to the military conscription offices. Women eventually released after their passports were photographed. Raids with police K9s lasted for hours.'

'Reports that hundreds of men were taken away by police from nightclubs around Moscow on Friday night.'

'The raids on Moscow nightclubs began at around 2am on Friday night - just 7 hours ago, and the situation last for many hours. There was reportedly a never-ending flow of police paddy wagons with cannon fodder getting loaded up.'

'Little footage so far of the Friday raids on Moscow clubs to collect cannon fodder for the invasion of Ukraine, probably because people are terrified and in shock. "It's terrifying to feel vulnerable on your own home soil. They didn't care who they put face down — men, women, they didn't care. It was terrifying. Very terrifying. Don't know how much longer the others will be detained. We are slowly heading home, but the experience... wouldn't ever want to repeat that. I don't know by what miracle they let us go..."'

There are also vids from inside and outside the nightclubs, plus there's a video with a woman saying what is written in the last paragraph.

Опять «голая вечеринка»? Силовики нагрянули в бывший Mutabor и другие клубы Москвы: что известно | NEWS.ru | Дзен

"What is known about the raid on Moscow clubs
According to Mash, riot police broke into the Arma club, which was previously called Mutabor and where blogger Anastasia Ivleeva staged a scandalous "naked party" last year. Then she was visited by rapper Vacío, who came in one sock (it was the only part of closing he was wearing, and not on foot - RA), Lolita Milyavskaya, Philip Kirkorov and other show business stars. The performers who attended the event were threatened with "cancellation".

According to the channel, the security forces descended in the midst of the party. About a hundred people were laid face down on the floor, and some of the guests were searched.

As can be seen in the video posted by the Telegram channel Mash, in Arma, visitors are squatting, and a policeman walks around the perimeter of the dance floor with a baton and wearing an open visor helmet. REN TV, referring to the participants of the event, writes that "people were asked to sit on the floor and behave calmly, some are being searched."

At the same time, the Telegram channel SHOT reported that raids are also taking place in Mono and SIMACH night establishments.

In Mono, as the Telegram channel "Caution, news" reports with reference to visitors, riot police officers came at about 01:30.

"Now those who came to the party are being taken to paddy wagons," the media project said in a statement.

It is noted that earlier the club hosted parties that attracted LGBT representatives (the movement is recognized as extremist in the Russian Federation, activities are prohibited).

What do eyewitnesses say about what is happening in Moscow clubs
One of the visitors wrote in the comments to the announcement of the Arma party on the Telegram channel of the institution that the police work, in particular, "in the basement."

Today, the club hosted the Delta Festival, organized by the St. Petersburg promo team M_division. In the visitor's comment, apparently, we are talking about one of the four dance floors — Under, the musical sets on which, according to the schedule, began at 23:00 and were supposed to go until 08:00.

Many netizens also report that their friends and acquaintances are "stuck" in the club.

As told by MSK1.EN a participant of the Arma party, at about 01:20, "everyone was put face down on the floor", then selectively searched. The girls were treated more loyally than the guys, and after an hour and a half they began to let them go.

"My friend and I were among the first girls who started to be released, but I think most of them are still there, guys for sure," the girl shared.

For what reason did the security forces descend on Moscow clubs
At the moment, nothing is known about the reasons for the raids. No official information has been received yet. Judging by the footage from the clubs that the security forces came to, no "naked parties" were held there today.

It is known that last year, after Ivleeva's scandalous event, the security forces also carried out checks at Mutabor.

A few months after the scandalous party, Ivleeva admitted in an interview that the event was held "at the wrong time in the wrong place." Despite the silence, the star continued to follow the developments and comments that were voiced by different parties.

"It was an event that happened at the wrong time in the wrong place. Then I decided to go into silence mode. <...> I listened carefully to what was happening around me, what they were saying, what arguments, what arguments they were giving," Ivleeva said in an interview with Andrei Tretyakov.

After the "naked" party, the celebrity was hit by a wave of haight, which, according to Tretyakov, not everyone could withstand. Ivleeva herself noted that what happened "went beyond the norm" and made it clear to her that "in the modern media space, charges are equal to a sentence."

 

"Nov 30, 11:23 11 455  

The Interior Ministry explained the raids in Moscow clubs with data on LGBT propaganda

Security forces raided a nightclub on Skladochnaya Street after receiving information that LGBT propaganda was being conducted there, the Interior Ministry said. Weapons were seized from the institution, he was also suspected of selling illegal alcohol
 
On the night of November 30, police and FSB officers raided a nightclub in the northeast of Moscow. The purpose was to check for LGBT propaganda (the international LGBT social movement is recognized as extremist in Russia and banned). This was announced by the metropolitan Department of the Interior Ministry on its website.

The inspection was carried out in a nightclub on Skladochnaya Street to "identify illegal activities."

"According to operational information, propaganda of the ideology of the LGBT movement banned in the territory of the Russian Federation was carried out in the club," the Ministry of Internal Affairs said in a statement.

During the inspection, the security forces found weapons and allegedly illegal alcohol without excise duty in the club. The police seized smartphones, laptops, video cameras and other items of importance "for making a procedural decision."

On the night of November 30, MSK1, the telegram channels Baza, Shot and "Beware, News" reported raids by security forces in Moscow nightclubs Arma (formerly Mutabor), Mono and Simach. According to their information, visitors were selectively searched, some were detained.

Eyewitnesses from Arma reported "Carefully, news" that at first visitors were required to lie face down on the floor, then for about an hour and a half nothing happened — everyone was sitting on the floor in the presence of security forces.

The Supreme Court recognized the international LGBT community movement as extremist and banned its activities in Russia in November 2023. Propaganda of non-traditional sexual relations is prohibited in the country among people of any age, and fines of up to 5 million rubles are provided for legal entities.

Since the beginning of the year, security forces in a number of regions have been checking bars and clubs because of "provocative parties", and also disrupted performances by several musicians, came to the Garage Museum in Moscow. In particular, the security forces came to the Inside space in the center of Rostov-on-Don in the summer. As "161" wrote, the girls were released from the building, and male visitors were checked for passports and military tickets, asked where they studied, served and work." ( https://www.rbc.ru/society/30/11/2024/674ac5789a794745986f8fc1?ysclid=m445wy0jp9624916531 )

    Unfortunatelly, it looks like nobody was recruited, but i hope this raids would be repeated again and again untill this sort of nightclups disappear.

   Mote "Mutabor" (club name) is not random combination of  sounds, but incantation from Soviet cartoon - with it evil sourencer was turning humans into ugly animals.

 

[urbanoid]

Ok, so nothing to do with mobilizing anyone, most likely at least.

[Roman Alymov]

3 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

Ok, so nothing to do with mobilizing anyone, most likely at least.

Unfortunately yes, but still reflection of public demand to do something about this disgusting practices - and this public demands are only became heard when our "rulling elite" sudenly found out they are no more in position of pushing this stuff into public throat.

    Philipp Kirkoroiv (mentioned in article above) and one short old man

Kirkorov in his stage dress, and on "naked party" mentione above,  with Anastasia Ivleeva

[Roman Alymov]

Ksenya Sobchak and the same old man

and on "naked party"

[urbanoid]

22 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

Ksenya Sobchak and the same old man

 

Nothing weird with a president meeting a former presidential candidate, eh?  \

Besides, she is a daughter of a guy who was once Putin's boss in St. Pete, the guy himself died in quite mysterious circumstances as well. 

 

 

[seahawk]

Good to see Russia taking action against those people.

[urbanoid]

10 minutes ago, seahawk said:

Good to see Russia taking action against those people.

Is that you, General Lee?

[seahawk]

6 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

Is that you, General Lee?

It must be a beautiful and safe country, when your assault police is busy raiding fetish swinger parties of consenting adults.

[Stuart Galbraith]

Its probably the only way they can get dates.

[Roman Alymov]

44 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

Nothing weird with a president meeting a former presidential candidate, eh?  \

Besides, she is a daughter of a guy who was once Putin's boss in St. Pete, the guy himself died in quite mysterious circumstances as well. 

More over, it is widely believed he is her godfather. Loyalty to former bosses is exactly why Putin was selected by Yeltsin's family to be the guardian of their lifes and assets.

[urbanoid]

12 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

More over, it is widely believed he is her godfather. Loyalty to former bosses is exactly why Putin was selected by Yeltsin's family to be the guardian of their lifes and assets.

What are the theories about his assassination? On one hand it was Putin who sent him to Kaliningrad to campaign for him, on the other at least on the surface it makes no sense for him to have ordered it, as it was him who made the state drop the charges against him, which resulted in his return to Russia from France.

What is the Russian word used for 'guardians'? 

[Roman Alymov]

26 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

What are the theories about his assassination? On one hand it was Putin who sent him to Kaliningrad to campaign for him, on the other at least on the surface it makes no sense for him to have ordered it, as it was him who made the state drop the charges against him, which resulted in his return to Russia from France.

  Actually the man in complicated relations with Sobchak was not Putin but Yeltsin. Sobchak was extremely popular as he, long-time univercity professor, was not only good speaker (Yeltsin was not) but also very intelligent and able to combine liberalism with modest "strong Russia" view (Yeltsin was not strong in combining anything). There was no sence for Putin to assacinate Sobchak - as it was not only extremely dangerous if discovered (Putin was very weak politically back then) but Sobchak's death was for him the loss of potentially valuable ally in that period when he was in danger of being removed from power by oligarchs.  So if Soibchak was in fact killed - it may be attempt to weaken Putin or "send him a message".

     Anyway not only Sobchak's daughter became "Russian Paris Hilton" abusing her alleged special relations with President - but also Sobchak's wife Ludmila Narusova is still Russian Senator, despite of her ambivalenmt position about current political line (and despite of public hate of her following her long-time "Let them eat cake" approach to Russian grass roots).

45 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

What is the Russian word used for 'guardians'? 

If you mean media persons who are always in support of Gov actions, cover up of mistakes/crimes and who attack anybody who dare to talk about problems, then it is "охранители".

 Old text about that Кто такие "охранители" и почему их становиться больше с каждым днем? | Пикабу

"Who are the "guardians" and why are there more of them every day?⁠⁠
  
Currently, the movement of "guardians" is gaining momentum in Russia. The guards are those people whose actions are aimed at maintaining the current government through propaganda. You can characterize their idea in one phrase: "Who if not Putin?!". Among its modern representatives, such personalities can be distinguished as: E.A. Fedorov, A.A. Prokhanov, N.V. Starikov, S.E. Kurginyan, A.G. Dugin, D.K. Kiselyov, etc. Among the media projects, for example, PolitRussia, Provocateur and others. At first glance, it may seem that these are ordinary patriots of their country, but no, this is not the case.

To understand this, I suggest you familiarize yourself with the definition of "patriot".

A patriot is a patriotic person, someone who loves his fatherland, is devoted to his people, is ready to make sacrifices and feats in the name of the interests of his homeland.

As you can see, in this definition there is such a thing as "devotion to one's people." The guards are not devoted to their people, they are devoted only to a small part of it, namely, the authorities. We don't live under communism or even socialism, we live under capitalism. In capitalist countries, the state protects, for the most part, the interests of capital, not the people. No matter how the government behaves, no matter what laws it introduces, the Okhrana will always protect this power. The guards don't care about the people.

This could be clearly seen when pension reform was widely discussed. All the guards whose opinion I looked at were the same. It was as follows: "Well, Putin said that this should be done, otherwise there is no way. We take Putin's word for it. He said that he might not have made such a decision on his board, but after he left it would be bad. That's how good he is." .

How do these people manage to recruit supporters into their ranks? Why do people listen to them and take their side? Now I will try to sort it out point by point. I must say right away, there are different guards and they work for different audiences. Now we will not consider the monarchist guards (those who openly pray for Nicholas II, well, you understand), we will analyze the most numerous, namely the guards who miss the USSR.

Point one. Praise the Soviet past.

The guards are proud of the victory in the Great Patriotic War, they praise the achievements of the Soviet Union, they very negatively assess the collapse of the USSR. BUT none of them, in the context of mentioning the USSR, will ever be praised by the ideology of the Soviet Union. They will never come out in support of the ideas of Marx, Lenin, Stalin. Stalin did well for them, in the sense that he won the war, but his works and ideas are strictly forbidden. Guards can often be seen with St. George's ribbons (it is with St. George's ribbons, if you tell them that this is a guards ribbon, they will not believe you and will try to bite you). This can be seen in the example of the Nodes. They can also use the red banner and other symbols, such as Kurginyan, but at the same time completely reject class theory and Marxism in general.

And all this is done in order to attract people. People see old symbols, hear how these guards praise the USSR, how they are dissatisfied with the demolition of monuments to the Soviet soldier and believe them. A simple person, seeing all this, thinks: "Well, if they support it all, then they want it all back, just like me." But no, the guards take this mass of people and direct the flow to support Putin and the current government. The very government that is decommunizing our country. 

Point two. Marginalizing everyone who is against the guardians.

I'll explain how it works using two examples. Let's take a conditional person who, for example, does not support Navalny and does not support Putin at the same time. It's election time and the guards announce: If Navalny called not to go to the polls, then all those who will not go to the polls are for Navalny. Our conditional person is at a loss, he does not want to increase turnout in the elections, but also does not want to be among Navalny's supporters. What should he do? We will have to go to the polls in order to at least not consider ourselves a "navalny." Not a bad manipulation, isn't it? On the face of attributing a person to a mass of people whom he does not support.

Let's take another example. We take a person who sympathizes with Marxist ideas. The guards immediately ask such people the question: "Have you decided to arrange a revolution? So that everything would be like in Ukraine???There is no need to strike, there is no need to go to rallies." Of course, after watching all the horrors that are happening in Ukraine, a person does not want such a scenario. I have to endure my sad situation in silence. You can also declare everyone who is going to rally as agents of the "state Department". But I have already written about NODE and Fedorov, we will not devote much time to him.

Point three. To set a sacred goal.

Many, but not all, guards set themselves some kind of unattainable goal that everyone needs to go to together. But this goal is not achievable.

For example: The NOD aims to give Putin unrealistic powers that will give him, as a super-being, the opportunity to break the shackles of colonized Russia. But they are essentially doing nothing to achieve this goal. The node has been in existence since 2012, and we are almost in 2019 and still a colony. The reason for everything is the agents of Hosdep, who are interfering with Fedorov and the Nodovites.

Kurginyan is generally a metaphysical entity from the 4th floor, which is not so easy to catch and clearly hear what she wants. But one of his goals is the universal access of all Russians to the "4th floor". Read more about it here:

Point four. Assign an external enemy.

Everything is simple here. The main message of all the guardians is that the root of evil has settled far to the west. Everyone who is on strike is protesting either stupid or paid. The main goal is to defeat the external enemy. They reject the idea that the enemy is in the state itself.

What to do and how to deal with it? I think that the reader, being a sane person, has already understood a simple truth: It does not matter what slogans and symbols the movement is covered with, it is important where this movement leads and what it offers. Therefore, I ask you to carefully understand the problem, do not trust everything that the talking heads carry. Thank you to everyone who finished reading the article. Share your opinion in the comments. And it doesn't matter if you support the author of this article or not, every opinion is important. The author is open to constructive criticism."