The Kremlin is burning?

[Mighty_Zuk]

In what is probably a surprise to absolutely none, Trump picks hawks on Russia-Ukraine.

https://x.com/mtracey/status/1861854050368495638

[ex2cav]

On 11/26/2024 at 4:03 AM, mkenny said:

Yes indeed. Western 'Rules Based Order' forbid occupying  neighbouring countries. Russia should do as the west does and  occupy only those  countries that are not your neighbours-- like  Afghanistan, Syria and Iraqi.

+1

[Sinistar]

7 hours ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

In what is probably a surprise to absolutely none, Trump picks hawks on Russia-Ukraine.

https://x.com/mtracey/status/1861854050368495638

 

it does not per se mean the status quo either. if trump views negotiations from the standpoint of having cards to play, then his strategy is that he would have something to leverage. he is already stated openly his goal is not to continue the war. it is a tactical decision to get there

 

it could backfire. putin could say that he knows he can accomplish his objectives either way. at the same time team trump would have been in communications with the russia and the transition of policy. so something is supposed to change

 

in a way everyone knows this. biden knows it. otherwise why is biden attempting to tip the scales on his way out in a few weeks

[Mighty_Zuk]

56 minutes ago, Sinistar said:

 

it does not per se mean the status quo either. if trump views negotiations from the standpoint of having cards to play, then his strategy is that he would have something to leverage. he is already stated openly his goal is not to continue the war. it is a tactical decision to get there

 

it could backfire. putin could say that he knows he can accomplish his objectives either way. at the same time team trump would have been in communications with the russia and the transition of policy. so something is supposed to change

 

in a way everyone knows this. biden knows it. otherwise why is biden attempting to tip the scales on his way out in a few weeks

I'd say that as of right now, Russia has the upper hand. There were other points when it had a clear edge, but never once anything that could secure it a victory.

It has always been in an extremely grinding mode, and it cannot feasibly occupy Kyiv. Russia too needs to freeze the war to restore its economy. 

Ukraine is simultaneously being held back. It's prevented from using the weapons it was supplied. But if their use was permitted, Ukraine could push out Russian forces within probably less than a year.

[Sinistar]

54 minutes ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

Ukraine is simultaneously being held back. It's prevented from using the weapons it was supplied. But if their use was permitted, Ukraine could push out Russian forces within probably less than a year.

 

not really

 

if they use the f-16s those guys are dead. the first one was lost on the first mission

 

as far as their armor and other donated vehicles are areconcerned, they are using them as well as they can

 

recent reports now indicate that ukraine needs manpower regardless of ammunition or equipment levels, because the united states is now appearing to lean on ukraine in order to lower the draft age

 

https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/white-house-pressing-ukraine-draft-18-year-men-116278087

 

this brings us to the nato supplied missiles fired on russian targets; they are not being held back from using them, it is not really ukraine firing these to begin with. they are operated by the donor countries

 

not that that they would really change anything for ukraine over the long run

 

the strategy is actually to provoke russia in an overreaching move - attack a nato country say- and trip article 5 and open up the war, not that the missiles themselves would turn it around for ukraine, but the strategy is to commit nato before trump takes over. that is what the outgoing biden administration and britain and france are now attempting by recent actions and statements

[Roman Alymov]

39 minutes ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

I'd say that as of right now, Russia has the upper hand.

Pro-Rus sources are speaking about different picture, with Army "developing" from bad to worse fighting numerically superior enemy, while top leadership is busy ignoring the war and doing nothing to move country to real war footing as they are waiting for opportunity to have some kind of surrender to West on terms they would try to sell as victory to population (and that is why they are deliberately avoiding mobilization - extra hundreds of thousands of armed citizens asking inconvenirnt questions is the last thing they need).

47 minutes ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

Russia too needs to freeze the war to restore its economy. 

What economy Russia needs to restore? From 1991, Russian economy was de-facto colonial one, based on providing West with free resources in return for kickbacks for local comprador elites, and destroying local production in favor of importing anything feom West (preferably) or China. Not sure we need to have this "economy" restored. More over, war with all its hardships is giving us opportunity to reverse some of this negative processes - while any kind of "freeze" would be immediately used by our elite to retirn to "business as usual".

53 minutes ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

Ukraine is simultaneously being held back. It's prevented from using the weapons it was supplied. But if their use was permitted, Ukraine could push out Russian forces within probably less than a year.

Ukraine is not "held back" - but West is deliberately "slowboiling then frog" to avoid events inside Russia that could lead to their clients in Kremlin loosing their grip of power. 

[Mighty_Zuk]

5 minutes ago, Sinistar said:

 

not really

 

if they use the f-16s those guys are dead. the first one was lost on the first mission

 

as far as their armor and other donated vehicles are areconcerned, they are using them as well as they can

 

recent reports now indicate that ukraine needs manpower regardless of ammunition or equipment levels, because the united states is now appearing to lean on ukraine in order to lower the draft age

 

https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/white-house-pressing-ukraine-draft-18-year-men-116278087

 

this brings us to the nato supplied missiles fired on russian targets; they are not being held back from using them, it is not really ukraine firing these to begin with. they are operated by the donor countries

 

not that that they would really change anything for ukraine over the long run

 

the strategy is actually to provoke russia in an overreaching move - attack a nato country say- and trip article 5 and open up the war, not that the missiles themselves would turn it around for ukraine, but the strategy is to commit nato before trump takes over. that is what the outgoing biden administration and britain and france are now attempting by recent actions and statements

So we're regurgitating Kremlin propaganda now. Okay. 

Why did I ever expect anything else?

[Sinistar]

17 minutes ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

So we're regurgitating Kremlin propaganda now. Okay. 

Why did I ever expect anything else?

 

no seriously. abcnews is not russian propaganda. this is a mainstream outlet in the united states. one of the big ones. they are very pro ukraine. all major us outlets are

 

https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/white-house-pressing-ukraine-draft-18-year-men-116278087

 

ap

 

https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-war-biden-draft-08e3bad195585b7c3d9662819cc5618f

 

reuters

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/us-urges-ukraine-lower-fighting-age-18-bolster-ranks-official-says-2024-11-27/

 

well you get the point. not russian sources. they are all picking up the same story. that is how you know something is wrong because usually it is not admitted like this unless it is becoming too difficult to continue the movie without tripping over logic strings

 

ukraine is always on the edge of winning if it just was not for russian propaganda, or they are always winning but for some reason are held back or need something more that they do not have but need, except that they do not need it because they are winning the war anyway

Edited November 28, 2024 by Sinistar

[Mighty_Zuk]

23 minutes ago, Sinistar said:

no seriously. abcnews is not russian propaganda. this is a mainstream outlet in the united states. one of the big ones. they are very pro ukraine. all major us outlets are

What?

I was referring to these bits of nonsense:

37 minutes ago, Sinistar said:

if they use the f-16s those guys are dead. the first one was lost on the first mission

No they won't. No it didn't.

Their activities are hushed for OPSEC reasons, but what's so far reported is high efficiency of air defense despite dwindling stocks of ground based interceptors. 

All indicators point to them so far being effective, or at the very least not ineffective. 

37 minutes ago, Sinistar said:

as far as their armor and other donated vehicles are areconcerned, they are using them as well as they can

Not relevant to what I said. At all.

41 minutes ago, Sinistar said:

recent reports now indicate that ukraine needs manpower regardless of ammunition or equipment levels, because the united states is now appearing to lean on ukraine in order to lower the draft age

Also unrelated.

41 minutes ago, Sinistar said:

this brings us to the nato supplied missiles fired on russian targets; they are not being held back from using them, it is not really ukraine firing these to begin with. they are operated by the donor countries

It is an undeniable fact, at this point, that the US places heavy restrictions on the usage of long range munitions, which Ukraine needs to employ to drive Russia's strategic assets out of theater.

42 minutes ago, Sinistar said:

not that that they would really change anything for ukraine over the long run

Numbers indicate airfields. This map and legend are taken from an OSINTer on Twitter named David Lisovtsev. I am quoting his conclusions as well.

1 - Abandoned in summer of 2022.

2 - Abandoned in November of 2022.

3 - Abandoned in October of 2023, after already successfully repelling a Ukrainian offensive, largely via attack helicopters operating there.

4 - Likely in the process of being abandoned as the US lifted some restrictions on using ATACMS on Russian soil.

5 - Potentially abandoned in the future if the US permits using JASSM due to enter service in Ukraine.

6 - Likely to be abandoned only if Germany permits transferring and using its advanced Taurus missiles. 

 

If airfields [4] are abandoned, then Russia will lose its strategic capability to deploy attack helicopters along the existing frontline. Its Mi-28 will be unable to even reach such distance, and its Ka-52 will have very short, possibly inconsequential loiter time.

If [5] are also abandoned, the Ka-52 will be out of the game entirely as well.

These will also affect Russian air patrols. These are conducted by Mig-29 and Su-30/35. If [5] are abandoned, then Mig-29 with their shorter range will be unable to conduct CAP under realistic conditions (medium altitude flight, weapons carriage, loiter time, range to target, maneuvering space). This will leave only the Su-30/35 to conduct CAP, putting additional strain on the platform and overall reducing the density of CAP in the area - ultimately giving Ukraine better freedom of operation.

 

That's just scratching the surface. The introduction of GMLRS forced Russia to push mass logistics and C2 further away from the front, making these overall less effective. Ukraine could have an opportunity to push these further back, leaving local Russian troops much less coordinated and more importantly - resource starved. 

More available and aggressive CAS, together with less equipped Russian troops, will allow Ukraine to dislodge Russians from key positions at a much better attrition rate.

 

1 hour ago, Sinistar said:

the strategy is actually to provoke russia in an overreaching move - attack a nato country say- and trip article 5 and open up the war, not that the missiles themselves would turn it around for ukraine, but the strategy is to commit nato before trump takes over. that is what the outgoing biden administration and britain and france are now attempting by recent actions and statements

Russia committed numerous Article 5 triggering events throughout the war. If countries like Poland, Romania, and others were so trigger-happy, they'd have their article 5 long ago. They're making the choice not to. To say otherwise is to not just ignore reality, but to spew Kremlinian propaganda out of malice and lack of self respect.

[Stuart Galbraith]

Russians dont use Mig29 anymore, havent for several years. You probably meant Su27. Which has a long range if its fueled up to the gills, or good manoeuvrablity, nearly as good as an F16, if its largely empty of fuel, but it cant do both.

Ultimately, thats going to be a long way to travel, and they dont have that many air tankers to go around. It is going to mean longer times in the air, tiring out the airframes, tiring the crews, adding to the maintenance backlog. Something that was already an issue before the war, it hasnt got any better after nearly 3 years, as the number of crashes evidences.

Basically, Russian airpower is going to get pushed back where it probably cant influence anything, as F16 numbers slowly grow in Ukrainian service. This aint a great place to be for the RuAF.

[Roman Alymov]

26 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Russians dont use Mig29 anymore, havent for several years.

That is not exactly correct: RusAF/VKS do not use Mig-29 anymore AFAK, but Navy aviation do (for example, couple of days ago some of drones off Crimea were shot down by Black Sea Fleet Mig-29).

[Mighty_Zuk]

1 hour ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Basically, Russian airpower is going to get pushed back where it probably cant influence anything, as F16 numbers slowly grow in Ukrainian service. This aint a great place to be for the RuAF.

Russian glide bombs are particularly painful for Ukraine. Aviation bombs are the weapon of choice for dismantling quality fortifications.

[Stuart Galbraith]

41 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

That is not exactly correct: RusAF/VKS do not use Mig-29 anymore AFAK, but Navy aviation do (for example, couple of days ago some of drones off Crimea were shot down by Black Sea Fleet Mig-29).

There is also the Mig35, which seems to be available for the war in trace amounts.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mikoyan_MiG-35

By and large though, I think it fair to say the Mig29 on the Russian side is pretty much a non issue in the war. The heavy lifting is all being done by various Sukhoi models.

[alejandro_]

43 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

That is not exactly correct: RusAF/VKS do not use Mig-29 anymore AFAK, but Navy aviation do (for example, couple of days ago some of drones off Crimea were shot down by Black Sea Fleet Mig-29).

VKS still uses a few in Armenia and in Astrakhan training center, but yes, VKS is simply not interested. Even with the losses in the first 2 years in the conflict they did not bother reactivating modern MiG-29SMTs stored in Kursk (*), or signing new contracts for advanced variants. They prefer Flanker derivates due to bigger range and payload.

(*) Originally made for Algeria, they could be sold to India

[Stuart Galbraith]

Last I heard the Test Pilot school (or was it the demonstration team? One of the other) just outside Moscow was still using Fulcrums. But its simply too short ranged for the war in Ukraine (probably too short ranged for the Ukrainians tbh).

Still love them though of course, wonderful aircraft in its day.

[old_goat]

1 hour ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

 

Basically, Russian airpower is going to get pushed back where it probably cant influence anything, as F16 numbers slowly grow in Ukrainian service. This aint a great place to be for the RuAF.

Yes, you compare the Su-35 and Su-30SM to obsolete, worn out F-16s... Congrats... You still live in the late 80s- early 90s when MiG-29 and Su-27 were indeed utter shit compared to american aircraft. But I tell you some secret: Things changed! And btw, how exactly did F-16 influence the war? Oh wait... It didnt...

 

[Roman Alymov]

Promo reel of new federal highway from old border to Mariupol opened yesterday https://t.me/olegtsarov/19406

It is part of "Noviorossia" highway supposed to complete the  road ring around Azov sea 

[Stuart Galbraith]

No, thats a misrepresentation of what I was saying. SU35 and SU30 could be the finest aircraft in the world (and they certainly are capable), but if they cant be present over the Ukrainian lines with a full fuel and weapon load, their impact will be far less than it might have been. And considering there is a distinct lack of airframes anyway, that means they have to stretch their hours, with all the impact on losses they have. If you have been watching the news, you have regularly been seeing Russian combat aircraft falling out the sky for this very reason, even before the war started.

Read what I said above, the Mig29 was a truly excellent aircraft in its day, comparing very well to early block F16's. But other than the Mig35 and Mig29K perhaps, they largelystopped upgrading it, and compared to the F16 this really shows. Not only that, for something like a decade they stopped building them IIRC. The F16 line has never gone cold. This has an impact on flight hours and availablity.

Once again, F16 numbers are growing in Ukraine. How much have SU57 numbers grown by? And that is the only Russian aircraft that is likely superior to late block F16's.

Nice rant btw, the outrage is strong in you it is.

Edited November 28, 2024 by Stuart Galbraith

[Sinistar]

2 hours ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

What?

I was referring to these bits of nonsense:

No they won't. No it didn't.

Their activities are hushed for OPSEC reasons, but what's so far reported is high efficiency of air defense despite dwindling stocks of ground based interceptors. 

All indicators point to them so far being effective, or at the very least not ineffective. 

Not relevant to what I said. At all.

Also unrelated.

It is an undeniable fact, at this point, that the US places heavy restrictions on the usage of long range munitions, which Ukraine needs to employ to drive Russia's strategic assets out of theater.

Numbers indicate airfields. This map and legend are taken from an OSINTer on Twitter named David Lisovtsev. I am quoting his conclusions as well.

1 - Abandoned in summer of 2022.

2 - Abandoned in November of 2022.

3 - Abandoned in October of 2023, after already successfully repelling a Ukrainian offensive, largely via attack helicopters operating there.

4 - Likely in the process of being abandoned as the US lifted some restrictions on using ATACMS on Russian soil.

5 - Potentially abandoned in the future if the US permits using JASSM due to enter service in Ukraine.

6 - Likely to be abandoned only if Germany permits transferring and using its advanced Taurus missiles. 

 

If airfields [4] are abandoned, then Russia will lose its strategic capability to deploy attack helicopters along the existing frontline. Its Mi-28 will be unable to even reach such distance, and its Ka-52 will have very short, possibly inconsequential loiter time.

If [5] are also abandoned, the Ka-52 will be out of the game entirely as well.

These will also affect Russian air patrols. These are conducted by Mig-29 and Su-30/35. If [5] are abandoned, then Mig-29 with their shorter range will be unable to conduct CAP under realistic conditions (medium altitude flight, weapons carriage, loiter time, range to target, maneuvering space). This will leave only the Su-30/35 to conduct CAP, putting additional strain on the platform and overall reducing the density of CAP in the area - ultimately giving Ukraine better freedom of operation.

 

That's just scratching the surface. The introduction of GMLRS forced Russia to push mass logistics and C2 further away from the front, making these overall less effective. Ukraine could have an opportunity to push these further back, leaving local Russian troops much less coordinated and more importantly - resource starved. 

More available and aggressive CAS, together with less equipped Russian troops, will allow Ukraine to dislodge Russians from key positions at a much better attrition rate.

 

Russia committed numerous Article 5 triggering events throughout the war. If countries like Poland, Romania, and others were so trigger-happy, they'd have their article 5 long ago. They're making the choice not to. To say otherwise is to not just ignore reality, but to spew Kremlinian propaganda out of malice and lack of self respect.

 

you talked around what i said and called it russian propaganda. sinistar assumes that it is common knowledge that ukraine lost one f-16 and one pilot in the first reports of combat. this was actually reported in western press

 

generally both sides are not conducting close air support or deep interdiction or decapitation strikes with aircraft. the f-16s are no exception. they would not last long in this environment attempting something like that. and neither side really puts up large aircraft groups like that

 

 

the western governments are lying about all of this. sinistar has no doubt that they know that they are lying

 

sinistar does not think you are lying. sinistar thinks you believe in the lies

 

by ukraine's own metric of winning the war the original goal was to capture all territory lost to the russians by the summer of 2023. even at its peak ukraine never came close to that. the lies in the press and from white house press corps briefings were all right in plain sight

 

they are even further from the goal now and it is not improving and there is no reason to think that it will

 

as for article 5, ukraine is not a member of nato. which country did you have in mind which creates that obligation

 

[Roman Alymov]

On 11/26/2024 at 8:24 PM, JWB said:

Rich Russians and Russian officials are very concerned about the information that Cyprus is allegedly planning to join NATO. 

https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1861373599405232292

"The Cypriot authorities have stripped 77 foreigners of their citizenship who received passports as part of the republic's investment program. Their list of names was published by the Cypriot newspaper Politis.  

In particular, Oleg Deripaska, the founder of Rusal, Alexey Kuzmichev, a shareholder of Alfa Group, Mikhail Gutseriev, the founder of Safmar Group, and Alexander Zheleznyak, the former owner of Probusinessbank, lost their Cypriot citizenship. The list included seven Russian businessmen who were included in the Forbes billionaires rating for 2024." 

    Send them back to Russia, there are nice places on local prisons for them.

[Mighty_Zuk]

10 minutes ago, Sinistar said:

you talked around what i said and called it russian propaganda. sinistar assumes that it is common knowledge that ukraine lost one f-16 and one pilot in the first reports of combat. this was actually reported in western press

Your reply is from the @Sinistar account. You need to organize your alts. 

The report that Ukraine lost an F-16 in a CAP mission early on, is true. The bullshit you said in the same sentence "if they use the f-16s those guys are dead." is what disqualified you.

 

[old_goat]

34 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Read what I said above, the Mig29 was a truly excellent aircraft in its day, comparing very well to early block F16's.

Not really true. MiG-29, as a pure aircraft, was a masterpiece. But as a combat aircraft, it was, and is an utter junk. Main problem, is its range is ridiculously small. It was already obsolete when it was introduced back in the 80s, it had extremely poor quality radar, weapon systems, no situational awareness, and was seriously deficient in terms of ergonomics. 

38 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

And that is the only Russian aircraft that is likely superior to late block F16's.

Ukraine has old, worn out F-16s.  Nowhere near a late block version. But even if they had those, I dont think it is as good as a Su-35. Russian aircrafts evolved since the 80s, considerably. 

[Roman Alymov]

1 minute ago, old_goat said:

Ukraine has old, worn out F-16s.  Nowhere near a late block version. But even if they had those, I dont think it is as good as a Su-35. Russian aircrafts evolved since the 80s, considerably. 

UkrAF is operating under direct NATO command (meaning they are flying where/when there are no Rus fighters in the air. and out of reach of Rus SAMs). It does not matter how old and worn out is their F-16 (as long as they could fly  -they could be used as launch platforms for missiles and bombs). Actually, there is no need to have real combat plane for this role, any training jet would do. Even Syrain AF with their L-39 are in much more danger when flying their attack missions.

[old_goat]

59 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

UkrAF is operating under direct NATO command (meaning they are flying where/when there are no Rus fighters in the air. and out of reach of Rus SAMs). It does not matter how old and worn out is their F-16 (as long as they could fly  -they could be used as launch platforms for missiles and bombs). Actually, there is no need to have real combat plane for this role, any training jet would do. Even Syrain AF with their L-39 are in much more danger when flying their attack missions.

Yes it is true, but I was just responding to Stuart's wild fantasies...  

[Stuart Galbraith]

1 hour ago, old_goat said:

Not really true. MiG-29, as a pure aircraft, was a masterpiece. But as a combat aircraft, it was, and is an utter junk. Main problem, is its range is ridiculously small. It was already obsolete when it was introduced back in the 80s, it had extremely poor quality radar, weapon systems, no situational awareness, and was seriously deficient in terms of ergonomics. 

Ukraine has old, worn out F-16s.  Nowhere near a late block version. But even if they had those, I dont think it is as good as a Su-35. Russian aircrafts evolved since the 80s, considerably. 

IIRC, Mig29 could reach the UK with a single atomic weapon. Id say thats a useful enough range for most things it wanted to do. The radar I think was related to the same one in the Su27, or at least the Mech radar in Su27 was certainly developed with the intent to have high comonality with the Phazotron No19 radar in the Mig29. From looking at simulations of both, one would be hard pressed to notice the difference except increased detection range.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mech_radar

https://military-history.fandom.com/wiki/N019_Radar

 

No, Ukraine has F16s that have  been upgraded to the latest configurations. For example, the Danish ones supplied have a chaff and flare dispenser integrated in the MER's. Not even the USAF has that.

But dont take my word for it.

https://www.aerotime.aero/articles/denmark-netherlands-f-16-ukraine-capabilities

Denmark and the Netherlands will be providing F-16A/B Block 20 MLU (Mid-Life Update) variants that represent late iterations of the 45-year-old fighter jet. These aircraft were modernized through the MLU program between 2003 and 2005 with enhanced avionics, improved radar systems, and upgraded weaponry. With radars such as the APG66 and missiles like the AIM-120 with a range of up to 150 kilometers, they ensure formidable air superiority. 

The F-16 MLU features a Head-Up Display (HUD) compatible with night operations, a GPS receiver, and a Westinghouse (now Northrop Grumman) AN/APG-66 fire control radar allowing it to carry and fire six AIM-120 AMRAAM air-to-air missiles, with an operational range of 150 kilometers (95 miles). It can drop guided bombs such as the GBU-24 Paveway III or the Joint Direct Attack Munitions (JDAM). This variant of the fighter also possesses the capability to carry Sniper and Litening targeting pods.  

These F-16 fighters will have the capacity to deploy a wide array of bombs and missiles, making them adaptable to various mission profiles for Ukraine. However, these missions will be limited by the training received by pilots. 

 

That is FAR more capable than any Mig29 or Su27 variant Russia posseses. Its also likely a match for the Su30 and Su35, except in range.

Edited November 28, 2024 by Stuart Galbraith