The Kremlin is burning?

[Stuart Galbraith]

14 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

By the way Rus economy is now 4th biggest economy in the world Russia is now the fourth largest economy. But how?

 

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1967386/putins-russia-economy-collapse-ukraine-war

A key ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned him the majority of companies in the country will go bankrupt as interest rates rise.

Sergey Chemezov, CEO of the state-owned Rostec, the biggest producer of Russian arms, made the comments earlier this week. He hit out at the Russian bank after interest rates were lifted by two percentage points to 21%, a record high.

Chemezov said: "There is no 20 percent profitability anywhere. Maybe in the drug trade, but even the sale of weapons does not bring such a profit.

"It is simply not profitable for enterprises to use borrowed funds, as I have already said many times. It is just that if we continue to work like this, then practically the majority of enterprises will go bankrupt."

[Roman Alymov]

5 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1967386/putins-russia-economy-collapse-ukraine-war

A key ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned him the majority of companies in the country will go bankrupt as interest rates rise.

Sergey Chemezov, CEO of the state-owned Rostec, the biggest producer of Russian arms, made the comments earlier this week. He hit out at the Russian bank after interest rates were lifted by two percentage points to 21%, a record high.

Chemezov said: "There is no 20 percent profitability anywhere. Maybe in the drug trade, but even the sale of weapons does not bring such a profit.

"It is simply not profitable for enterprises to use borrowed funds, as I have already said many times. It is just that if we continue to work like this, then practically the majority of enterprises will go bankrupt."

Well, let's wait and see as if they really will. We are allready waiting for Russia collapsing from the predicted  shortages of all things possible - from toilet paper to microchips,  and all problems possible from mass depopulation to mass iinflow of migrants, so one more point in waiting list.... 

[Stefan Kotsch]

55 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

We are allready waiting for Russia collapsing from the predicted  shortages of all things possible

Oh what. Russia will never collapse. After all, North Korea has lived on for a small eternity. But it is doubtful whether the North Korea model is so attractive to the Russians.

Nobody wants to defeat Russia. It is enough if Russia finally leaves Ukraine.

[Stuart Galbraith]

1 hour ago, Roman Alymov said:

Well, let's wait and see as if they really will. We are allready waiting for Russia collapsing from the predicted  shortages of all things possible - from toilet paper to microchips,  and all problems possible from mass depopulation to mass iinflow of migrants, so one more point in waiting list.... 

The difference is that its not OUR economic experts predicting doom. Its YOUR economic experts predicting the heat death of your economy.

[Roman Alymov]

9 minutes ago, Stefan Kotsch said:

Oh what. Russia will never collapse. After all, North Korea has lived on for a small eternity. But it is doubtful whether the North Korea model is so attractive to the Russians.

 I know little about life in N Korea (and, i think, you too)  so it is hard to tell. What i can tell you is that Russians, even from "rich places" like Moscow (above Western Europe average level) often find places like N Korea and Belorussia attractive ("everything clean and tidy (even compared to Moscow), every patch of land worked on, everybody is polite to each other, safe for children, no migrants etc.")  Unlike by the way Kuba ("nice people, nice climate, but too poor and ruined"). Of course it is tourists impressions but still.... Do you know Lukashenko is one of the most popular politicians in Russia (and was also very popular in Ukraine before 2022)?

[Stefan Kotsch]

Everything is going strictly according to the Kremlin's plan.

[Stuart Galbraith]

This is now something like a thousand and 7 days of the successful 3 day operation to liberate Ukraine. Everything is as predicted.

[Roman Alymov]

Just now, Stuart Galbraith said:

The difference is that its not OUR economic experts predicting doom. Its YOUR economic experts predicting the heat death of your economy.

  Your problem is you do not understand the intencity of internal economic and political debate inside Russia. There are many economic experts in Russia (so called "Glaz'yev's group", after President's economic advisor Sergey Glaz'yev) who are using every opportunity to criticize ultraliberal economic line that is mainstream in Russia, demanding softer monetary policy, cheap credit and focus on real production growth, even if it will harm inflation etc.? Sort of line followed by Turkey. They call current economic model followed by monetary officials headed by Nabiulina "No economy-no inflation" (see this podcast from 2014, 10 years ago - it will give you idea how long this debate is Нет экономики - нет инфляции - Ведомости )

[mkenny]

17 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

This is now something like a thousand and 7 days of the successful 3 day operation to liberate Ukraine. Everything is as predicted.

and there is now  something like 970 days of the successful  operation to immediately/soon  reduce the ruble to rubble and cut Russia's economy in half. 

Everything is as predicted. 

 

PS:

Did anyone manage to find me a dictionary with the definition of 'soon'?

 

 

[Stefan Kotsch]

1 hour ago, Roman Alymov said:

Your problem is you do not understand the intencity of internal economic and political debate inside Russia.

Like this debate:

Russia, the largest agricultural power, is also facing a shortage of apples. First it turned out that there were not enough potatoes in Russia, then chicken eggs had to be imported from Turkey and Azerbaijan. Then it turned out that our own milk wasn't enough and we had to import butter from India and Iran.
...
Naturally, prices are rising due to the apple shortage. According to Rosstat, the average price of apples in Russia has increased by 12.8% since the beginning of 2024. When it comes to agricultural products, only potatoes are increasing in price faster - by 64.1% since the beginning of the year.
...

https://www.e1.ru/text/economics/2024/11/21/74355137/

[JWB]

The Russian city of Engels in Saratov region is drowning in fecal sewage. Russian Telegram channels report that a diver has come to the rescue of residents.

https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1859643043156046157

[Roman Alymov]

5 minutes ago, Stefan Kotsch said:

Like this debate:

Russia, the largest agricultural power, is also facing a shortage of apples. First it turned out that there were not enough potatoes in Russia, then chicken eggs had to be imported from Turkey and Azerbaijan. Then it turned out that our own milk wasn't enough and we had to import butter from India and Iran.
...
Naturally, prices are rising due to the apple shortage. According to Rosstat, the average price of apples in Russia has increased by 12.8% since the beginning of 2024. When it comes to agricultural products, only potatoes are increasing in price faster - by 64.1% since the beginning of the year.
...

https://www.e1.ru/text/economics/2024/11/21/74355137/

So what? Internal demand is growing (especially after 2022, as people are, surprise, paid now much better - especially if they work on defence plants or join Army, resulting in general rise of salaries), and growth of industrial gardens output is too slow (as trees took time to grow)

 Old article from 2020 ( В России заложили рекордные площади садов – Агроинвестор )

"Record-breaking garden areas have been laid in Russia
The level of self-sufficiency in fruits and berries last year was below 38%
Tatyana Kulistikova

| Agroinvestor |
February 6, 2020

By 2025, it is planned to lay at least 65.2 thousand hectares of orchards and nurseries
 
Last year, 18.1 thousand hectares of perennial fruit and berry plantations were laid in Russia, which was the maximum result in modern history. This was stated by Roman Nekrasov, Director of the Department of Crop Production of the Ministry of Agriculture, during the All-Russian Agronomic and Agroengineering meeting. If compared with the figures of 2010, the area of the bookmark has grown almost fivefold, he stressed.

The production of fruits and berries in all farms last year also reached a record 3.46 million tons, Russian gardeners worked very efficiently and competently, Nekrasov noted. However, the level of self—sufficiency in this category was only 37.8%, while the planned indicator of the Food Security Doctrine was 60%. "We would like to ask the regions to properly dispose of the funds that the federation has brought within the framework of the incentive subsidy and provide support for farms that are engaged in gardening," Nekrasov said. The development of this sector is not only the country's food security, but also good prospects for exports, he said.

The expansion of fruit and berry plantations is one of the priority areas of agricultural development for 2020, according to which agricultural producers will be able to count on incentive subsidies. 54 regions considered this sector promising for themselves, including in Siberia and the Far East.

According to the plans of the Ministry of Agriculture, it is planned to lay at least 65.2 thousand hectares of orchards and nurseries in Russia by 2025. By this time, the production of fruits and berries in the commodity sector should grow to 2.2 million tons from an estimated 1.1 million tons in 2019, according to the presentation of the department.

Despite the record pace of laying new perennial plantings, the total area of gardens in the country last year decreased by 1 thousand hectares to 464.7 thousand hectares, according to Rosstat data. Including the share of orchards in fruiting age decreased by 5.7 thousand hectares to 358.7 thousand hectares. However, the area in agricultural organizations is growing: in general, it increased by 2.7 thousand hectares and reached 144.3 thousand hectares, including the share of fruit-bearing orchards increased by 0.6 thousand hectares to 86 thousand hectares.

The leading regions in terms of gross harvest of fruits and berries last year were the Krasnodar Territory (498.4 thousand tons in all farms), Kabardino-Balkaria (309.3 thousand tons), Dagestan (173.9 thousand tons), Volgograd (161.2 thousand tons) and Moscow (137.8 thousand tons) regions.

A large proportion of new gardens are of the intensive type. Their yield and the share of marketable products in the total gross harvest is several times higher than is usually obtained using traditional technology, therefore, the supply of domestic fruits, in particular apples, will grow not only due to the expansion of the area of plantations. However, for the time being, Russia retains the status of the world's largest importer of apples and pears. According to the forecast of the Foreign Agricultural Service of the US Department of Agriculture (FAS USDA), in the 2019/20 season, our country will purchase 710 thousand tons of apples and 253 thousand tons of pears abroad. According to the Federal Customs Service, the largest suppliers of apples to Russia are Moldova (196 thousand tons in the first three quarters of 2019), Serbia (106 thousand tons) and Azerbaijan (41 thousand tons)."

[mkenny]

4 minutes ago, JWB said:

The Russian city of Engels in Saratov region is drowning in fecal sewage. Russian Telegram channels report that a diver has come to the rescue of residents.

https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1859643043156046157

Truly shocking. It shows how far Russia has fallen  behind the civilised world

 

 

Edited November 21, 2024 by mkenny

[JWB]

6 minutes ago, mkenny said:

Truly shocking. It shows how far Russia has fallen  behind the civilised world

 

 

Not even remotely comparable. 

[mkenny]

9 minutes ago, JWB said:

Not even remotely comparable. 

MRD applies.

[JWB]

Russia's economy continues to slide this week, as the ruble sinks below a single US cent. 

The Ruble is now at its lowest point since the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1860129544445001931

[JWB]

Activity on Russia's only construction yard for liquefied natural gas modules slumped due to Western sanctions - Bloomberg

Congratulations to the great geostrategist Putin.

Novatek PJSC's Belokamenka facility on the Barents Sea, dubbed "the plant to make LNG plants," appears largely mothballed. Satellite data from late October and early November show the site's night-time light intensity at its lowest since 2019, according to the Payne Institute's Earth Observation Group.

https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1860251598863098250

[Roman Alymov]

18 minutes ago, JWB said:

Activity on Russia's only construction yard for liquefied natural gas modules slumped due to Western sanctions - Bloomberg

Congratulations to the great geostrategist Putin.

Novatek PJSC's Belokamenka facility on the Barents Sea, dubbed "the plant to make LNG plants," appears largely mothballed. Satellite data from late October and early November show the site's night-time light intensity at its lowest since 2019, according to the Payne Institute's Earth Observation Group.

https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1860251598863098250

It means no plans to increase supply of free LNG for West, major achievement for Western great geostrategist. 

[JWB]

17 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

It means no plans to increase supply of free LNG for West, major achievement for Western great geostrategist. 

It means "west" doesn't need Russian gas as much as it did in the past.

Putin is master strategist.

[Stefan Kotsch]

29 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

free LNG for West

Free? Free??? 🙃

However, the move away from fossil fuels in a strategic period was already a done deal before 2022. This has just accelerated.

[Roman Alymov]

17 minutes ago, Stefan Kotsch said:

Free? Free??? 🙃

However, the move away from fossil fuels in a strategic period was already a done deal before 2022. This has just accelerated.

 Yes, free - i have explained it many times, no need for doing it again. Re "move away from fossil fuels" - there is a Mendeleyev's saying "Burning oil is like heating a stove with banknotes", and selling unprocessed oil and gas abroad to enemy states in exchange of banknotes they are printing in any number is even more stupid, so the more oil and gas is left inside Russia or sold in exchange for real goods (like machine tools or heavy earchmoving equipment from China) - the better.

[Roman Alymov]

38 minutes ago, JWB said:

It means "west" doesn't need Russian gas as much as it did in the past.

Putin is master strategist.

Yes they do not, for a reason  German Deindustrialization Is A Wake-Up Call For U.S. Manufacturers

  Inteerstingly, NG consumption inside Russia set another all-time record this October (previous record was in October 2023 Потребление газа в России в октябре обновило рекорд для этого месяца - РИА Новости, 05.11.2024 ). Also, global consumption is growing....

 

[Roman Alymov]

From Viktor "Black Colonel" Alksnis ( https://t.me/blackcolonel2020/1649 )

"I am far from being paranoid, but I have a feeling more and more that we are being led closer and closer to the shameful "agreement" in the SVO zone. But in fact, to a shameful surrender and to Russia's largest military defeat in several centuries, which will turn out to have unprecedented negative consequences for it. Right up to its division, collapse and disappearance from the world stage.

It would seem, why bother? The country's leadership, including Russian President Vladimir Putin, constantly declares that all its goals will be achieved, i.e. the fighting in Ukraine will continue until victory. And in recent days, there has even been a surge in patriotic sentiments associated with the successful use of the latest Oreshnik missile.

On the other hand, sane people understand perfectly well that the SVO has been defeated and it will not be possible to inflict a military defeat on Ukraine. The only way out is to stop the fighting and start the negotiation process. 
And most countries of the world, including the United States and its allies, as well as friendly China, India, and Brazil, are increasingly offering to cease fire on the line of contact and move on to negotiations under the formula "peace in exchange for territories." 
So far, the leadership of the Russian Federation categorically refuses this formula. After all, agreeing with this formula essentially means an act of high treason – agreeing that significant territories of the LDPR, Zaporizhia and Kherson regions, which, according to the Constitution of the Russian Federation, are proclaimed the territory of the Russian Federation as its new subjects, remain Ukrainian. And who will get the territory occupied by Ukraine in the Kursk region? 

And I agree with this approach! How can you do that? At the same time, I would like to know the full names of those officials in the Kremlin who made a strategic mistake and simply stupidity by holding referendums in September 2022 on the entry of part of these territories into Russia as subjects of the Federation. Forgetting about the most important principle: "First you need to take control of the ENTIRE TERRITORY, and only then hold referendums, elections, etc. on it." 

As a result, today it is impossible to continue the war in Ukraine, taking into account the experience of almost three years of combat operations. But so is the truce on the frontline. 

At the same time, no one remembers one very unpleasant feature – for centuries, the defeat of a country in a war very often led to a showdown on the issue: "Who is to blame?" With subsequent upheavals in the domestic political sphere, a change of government and other unpleasant things.

And I think that analysts in the Presidential Administration are now racking their brains: "What should we do in such a difficult situation? How can the President of the Russian Federation, his Administration, the Ministry of Defense, the Foreign Ministry, and the special services be taken out of harm's way to find those responsible? 
The only way out is to "smear" responsibility for its own on the entire Russian society. And it seems that activity in this direction has already begun. Yesterday I was amazed to read the results of a public opinion poll conducted by the sociological company Russian Field, which interviewed 1,600 Russians by phone and found out that today 53% of Russians are in favor of moving to peace talks, while 36% support the continuation of the military operation. 
If Vladimir Putin decides to end hostilities and signs a peace agreement, 79% of citizens will approve of this step. Only 13% will disagree — this is the minimum proportion for the entire observation period. In addition, 60% of respondents are ready to support a ceasefire without any preconditions, while 30% oppose such an option.

That's the recipe for how to get the President of the Russian Federation and his entourage out of harm's way with the threat of defeat of the Russian Federation during its military operation. 
The pumping up of peacemaking sentiments in Russian society will continue in a variety of forms. Although today 79 percent of our fellow citizens will approve of the President's decision to end hostilities and sign a peace agreement. In addition, 60 percent of respondents are ready to support a ceasefire without any preconditions.

 It remains for a small matter – to give the poll figures (there will be many more similar polls) an official character by holding a nationwide referendum and putting on it the question of ending hostilities and holding negotiations without any preconditions. Undoubtedly, this position will receive the support of almost 80 percent of citizens during the voting. Along the way, the issue of supporting the position of the President of the Russian Federation during the referendum may also be included in the referendum questions. Thereby providing him with additional protection.

And that's it, the job is done…  The President of the Russian Federation addresses the nation following the results of the referendum. Declares that he wanted to continue his work to the bitter end. But Russian society wants peace and he is forced to abandon his goals and submit to the will of the people. And so on, blah, blah, blah. 
And they will continue to say that Russian society did not allow President Putin to win in Ukraine and it is it that is to blame for all the subsequent troubles"

[Roman Alymov]

More from Alksnis ( https://t.me/donbass_skripnik/18191 )

"Many subscribers in the comments ask the question: "Why is there no explosions with fire on the ground on the video of the Oreshnik missile strike on Yuzhmash?". 

Everything related to the Oreshnik ("Hazel Tree") is classified and there is little information. But I can assume that the hypersonic warheads were blanks and not loaded with explosives. Why?

 And the fact is that most likely the warheads of the "Hazel" were designed exclusively in nuclear design. But when it was necessary to demonstrate the implementation of at least some real steps by the leadership of the Russian Federation in response to the steps of Ukraine and its Western partners, and it was impossible to use nuclear weapons, then the missile developers probably received a command from the country's leadership to dismantle nuclear warheads from the missile and replace them with conventional ones, and the faster and cheaper the better. Up to the installation of "cooled" warheads, or even just similar dimensional and weight blanks. Given the enormous temperatures through which the warheads pass, a thermal protection system and some other elements must have been provided. 

And it looks like such "stripped-down warheads" were used on Yuzhmash. This does not mean that they could not cause damage. During the flight along the ballistic trajectory, the warheads accumulated enormous kinetic energy and, upon collision with an obstacle, they were instantly released. And this volume is sometimes comparable to the amount of energy of an explosive substance.

And, in my opinion, it was the use of these "cooled warheads" (blanks) that led to the absence of characteristic signs of explosions on the ground.

I already wrote yesterday that I have a positive attitude towards the creation and production of "Hazel". And I assume that the Soviet reserve for the creation and adoption of the Soviet medium-range Pioneer missile (RSD-10) in the 80s was actively used. Then, by agreement with the United States, the Pioneer missiles were decommissioned and destroyed in response to the non-deployment of American Pershing missiles in Europe. The missiles were destroyed, but the scientific and technical groundwork and all documentation remained. Apparently, all this was put into action, supplemented with a new element base and fresh scientific data, and as a result, instead of the "Pioneer" they received the "Hazel Tree". 

But with all my positive attitude towards him, I understand perfectly well that it will not help the Russian Army to significantly change the situation on the frontline and achieve a radical change in the fighting. Impossible.with a small number of such missiles and problems with their serial production, ensure their mass supply to the army.  

After all, the Russian leadership went to the use of "Hazel" simply out of impotence. Apart from loud threats, expressions of concern, numerous red lines, etc. for almost three years, we have not seen or heard anything real. Now, in response to Ukraine's aggressive steps, we will be told about the presence of a "Hazel Tree". And officials obviously believe that for some period of time this will help to relieve tension in Russian society. 
It won't help…"

    By the way today was another ATACMS attack on Kursk, ignored by official media....

[JWB]

Putin is not a dictator.

US National Intelligence declassified a report on the targeted assassination of Putin’s political rivals carried out by Russian special services abroad.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-11-22/putin-s-assassination-targets-revealed-in-declassified-memo