The Kremlin is burning?

[Stefan Kotsch]

17 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

adding Russian word to it (without actually understanding the meaning of it)

That definitely fit into this context. 🙃'Gangs are operating in Russia.'  Therefore: Это разборки между бандами.

[Roman Alymov]

3 hours ago, Stefan Kotsch said:

That definitely fit into this context. 🙃'Gangs are operating in Russia.'  Therefore: Это разборки между бандами.

As seasoned expert in Russian words, you surely know that the word "разборка" (razborka) originated from 1990th slang and the meaning of it is "sorting out", settlement of the case\conflict, ideally not by use of violence (but surely it is the option) but by negotiations/addressing to criminal authority who is respected by both sides. For your information, traffic police body respincible for defining who is to pay whom the damage  in case of traffic incident is officially "группа разбора" (group of razbor, the same rute as "razborka").  Later use of it by journalists to as description of any gang violence have watered down the meaning of it, bit still random attack is not "razborka". And by the way no attacker in this incident is known to belong to any gang - more over, all of them were "kids from best families" in local elite. It is more like if Hunter Biden with group of friends grabing AR and shooting people on the street.

[Stefan Kotsch]

Linguistic teachings do not change the matter. Russian centers of power are competing against each other for power.

[Roman Alymov]

2 minutes ago, Stefan Kotsch said:

Linguistic teachings do not change the matter. 

Well, nice to see you acknowlege your attempt of linguistic teaching went off course.

 

3 minutes ago, Stefan Kotsch said:

Russian centers of power are competing against each other for power.

Yes they are. That is what politics is about.

[Stefan Kotsch]

OMG.

[Roman Alymov]

Photo from recent events in Dagestan: local man took the weapon of policeman killed by attackers and jpined police in defending the city. Identified as Abakar Aliev. one of policemen killed was his relative (but not one he took rifle from)

[txtree99]

 

[JWB]

 

[JWB]

 

[ink]

16 hours ago, JWB said:

 

This kind of "Russian elites think this or that" writing (especially as it appears to be based on the opinions of one guy) can be pretty misleading.

I know maybe around 20 broadly middle-class Russians in Serbia and elsewhere... Should I do a little survey of their thoughts and then write an article called How the Russian Middle Class See the War? Or would that be representative of nothing whatsoever?

[glenn239]

4 hours ago, ink said:

This kind of "Russian elites think this or that" writing (especially as it appears to be based on the opinions of one guy) can be pretty misleading.

Keep in mind that Roman eats up this stuff.  Anton is writing in hopes of having the "pro-Russians" and the "Western elites" in Russia go at it.

[ink]

21 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

Keep in mind that Roman eats up this stuff.  Anton is writing in hopes of having the "pro-Russians" and the "Western elites" in Russia go at it.

Yeah, you're right. But I still can't help calling out lazy (and, in this case, kinda low-brow journalism) when I see it. Irks me that it's possible to get away with that kind of writing in a "serious" publication.

[glenn239]

3 hours ago, ink said:

Yeah, you're right. But I still can't help calling out lazy (and, in this case, kinda low-brow journalism) when I see it. Irks me that it's possible to get away with that kind of writing in a "serious" publication.

The way I look at it, JWB is fine to post whatever journalistic steaming dumpster fire he wants, and I'm free to scroll right past. 

[Roman Alymov]

On 7/3/2024 at 11:33 AM, ink said:

I know maybe around 20 broadly middle-class Russians in Serbia and elsewhere... Should I do a little survey of their thoughts and then write an article called How the Russian Middle Class See the War? Or would that be representative of nothing whatsoever?

20 persons is not even remotely enough for quantitative data, but would potentially make 2 focus groups of 10 - enough for basic qualitative findings (not some sort of final truth, but enough for starting point of further research). So you could potentially write an essey like "Russian Middle Class Migrants and Putin's War" - quite likely it could be published (if your findings are in line with Party Line of MSM). Will make you few coins:)

[Roman Alymov]

One more blow to comprador elites

"Parliament members and senators were obliged to coordinate travel abroad

The law adopted by the State Duma also provides for the deprivation of mandates for uncoordinated travel abroad

The State Duma adopted a law on the obligation of senators and deputies to coordinate their trips abroad. This is reported by TASS. The document provides for the early termination of the powers of parliamentarians who went abroad without the consent of the leadership. The procedure and timing of such an agreement will be determined by the councils of the chambers of the Russian parliament.

The co-author of the initiative, the head of the State Duma Committee on Security Vasily Piskarev, justified the conciliatory procedure for departure with security issues of both the state and the deputies traveling abroad themselves. He recalled the verdicts of the courts of Ukraine against the deputies of the State Duma." (Депутатов и сенаторов обязали согласовывать выезд за границу (bfm.ru))

[Stefan Kotsch]

On 7/1/2024 at 8:37 PM, Stefan Kotsch said:

On 7/1/2024 at 7:51 PM, mkenny said:

the western economic sanctions totally failed to  have  any real impact on Russia

This statement even stands in stark contrast to the Russian specialist media. And I don't mean Tass or RT or anything like that. 

A major destructive factor of the current period are the sanctions imposed by the countries of the “collective West”.
https://1economic.ru/lib/117948

'A machine tool industry in modern Russia does not exist at all.' writes MOSSKLAD, an online magazine that deals with mechanical engineering.
https://indpages.ru/equipment/stankostroeni...rtozavisimosti/

In the 1990s and early 2000s, machine tool manufacturing in Russia almost completely collapsed due to a lack of competitiveness. After that, machine tools were mainly purchased abroad. At the same time, engineering skills were lost and important component suppliers went bankrupt. Engineers continued to be trained, but due to a lack of demand, skills migrated to unrelated areas. A huge downward spiral began.
It was only with the sanctions that a rethink began in 2015. To date, however, what has been achieved has remained marginal. The Russian machine tool industry can currently only cover 8% of domestic demand.

The Chinese have massively stepped into the gap. However, the Russians assess: 'They [the Chinese] are quickly occupying the vacated part of the market and are starting to increase the prices of their products. And to a greater extent, without taking into account the quality of these machines and their innovative qualities. So a stream of relatively average machines, but at higher prices, entered the Russian market. '
https://1economic.ru/lib/119333

The website STANOCHNAYA OSNASTKA, a supplier of industrial spare parts, writes: 'Among the main problems that need to be solved are: lack of working capital, lack of import substitution of components & spare parts and stagnation in the development of the industry. ... Another problem is that the market capacity is extremely small. ... Due to the low circulation, Russian machines are significantly more expensive than imported ones. ... Some panelists believe it is important to find out why business people are not interested in investing in research and development. ... The industry cannot offer competitive conditions to the skilled workers it would like to recruit.” ...

He also added that the machine tool industry may continue to be in crisis as many are now turning to China for their products.'
https://stanki-osnastka.ru/blog/2024/02/25/...-puti-resheniy/

Russia is trying to catch up, but the conditions are simply incredibly catastrophic. It can take years or even decades before success occurs.

 

 

 

 

 

[Roman Alymov]

8 minutes ago, Stefan Kotsch said:

Russia is trying to catch up, but the conditions are simply incredibly catastrophic. It can take years or even decades before success occurs.

""If we talk about sovereignty in the machine tool industry, then this is a long and complicated process, it is very difficult to master the production of some technological components in two years. Secondly, as a rule, manufacturers of any individual components and components work for the whole world. There is no such thing as a country supplying everything only to its market," explained Daniil Kashtanov, Head of the Computer–aided design Systems Development Department at STAN Holding.

"That is, the question of profitability arises – in Russia it is possible to create an independent production of all the necessary components, but it will most likely be obviously unprofitable due to the fact that the demand for machines in the Russian market is not as strong as we would like. None of the manufacturers will take on such a financial burden. What should I do? To act like our colleagues from China: to attract investments to their country and create manufacturing enterprises that will manufacture components and export them to other markets," he said.

"Accordingly, this is how we will cover our needs and earn money from exports. We have such a partnership with China, where we have a very powerful production base, and it is developing at a very good pace. I personally traveled with my colleagues to audit many Chinese enterprises that manufacture machine tools and individual components. And the production level there is quite serious, there is even something to learn. Therefore, negotiations are currently underway between Russia and China on the organization of joint machine tool production in Russia," the speaker said.

"So, for example, we agree on the production of linear guides – this is an important part of many types of machine tools. There is a production of ball guides in Russia, but roller guides are used in our machine tools, that is, a more highly loaded type of component. We are also negotiating with Chinese partners on the joint production of spindles for turning, milling, drilling, boring, grinding and other machines," the specialist added.

"In general, we expect that in the near future we will have our own spindle motor – the main unit of the machine.

It is necessary for production in many areas: machine building, manufacturing, and especially for the aviation industry. Aircraft manufacturers are, we can say, now our main customer," the source stressed.

"Speaking about the main challenges for our machine tool industry, I can say that we have overcome the main one – we stopped depending on the supply of components from Europe and the United States, and reoriented to China. We can say that this happened as part of our global "pivot to the East". A lot of what was previously used in our machines were the most technologically advanced components from Europe. And in the last two years, we had to rebuild very quickly and either develop analogues on our own, or turn to the Chinese market. And we did it," the expert noted.

"Now our main challenge is to cover the needs of the Russian market for machine tools. We are increasing our pace and, according to preliminary plans, by 2028 we should reach capacities that will allow us to provide the Russian market with modern machine tools," Kashtanov concluded." ( https://vz.ru/news/2024/1/18/1249172.html?ysclid=ly7fme22ov351471759 )

By the way i wonder where the Western machine tools that were previously sold to Russia, are sold to now?

[Stefan Kotsch]

6 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

By the way i wonder where the Western machine tools that were previously sold to Russia, are sold to now?

Выпадающие объемы составляют незначительную долю их импорта и могут быть легко перенаправлены в условиях высокого спроса на продукцию станкостроения в мире. Таким образом, прекращение поставок станкостроительной продукции из недружественных стран практически не оказывает на них негативного воздействия, вызывая существенные затруднения при оснащении производств в России.
https://1economic.ru/lib/117948

The lost volumes constitute a small share of their imports and can be easily redirected in conditions of high demand for machine tool products in the world. Thus, the cessation of supplies of machine tool products from unfriendly countries has virtually no negative impact on them, causing significant difficulties in equipping production facilities in Russia

[Roman Alymov]

Mikhail Lesin,  former Minister of the Press, former adviser to Putin, former head of VGTRK (state TV company), former employee of the presidential administration under Yeltsin, turned out to be CIA informer. What a surprise.....

[Stefan Kotsch]

12 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

We are increasing our pace and, according to preliminary plans, by 2028 we should reach capacities that will allow us to provide the Russian market with modern machine tools

Within just 4 years? We know what problems there were in replicating simple thermal imaging devices..

[Roman Alymov]

4 minutes ago, Stefan Kotsch said:

Выпадающие объемы составляют незначительную долю их импорта и могут быть легко перенаправлены в условиях высокого спроса на продукцию станкостроения в мире. Таким образом, прекращение поставок станкостроительной продукции из недружественных стран практически не оказывает на них негативного воздействия, вызывая существенные затруднения при оснащении производств в России.
https://1economic.ru/lib/117948

The lost volumes constitute a small share of their imports and can be easily redirected in conditions of high demand for machine tool products in the world. Thus, the cessation of supplies of machine tool products from unfriendly countries has virtually no negative impact on them, causing significant difficulties in equipping production facilities in Russia

So "small shares" were diverted - to where? 

Meanwhile Russian machine tools industry is booming, despite of all obstacles created by liberal economy model

"Machine tool boom: in Russia, machine tool production has doubled in a year, but this is still not enough for the market
June 25, 2023

In 2022, the production of machine tools in Russia doubled, but this might not have happened if it had not been for the sanctions. After Western companies left the market, Chinese manufacturers quickly occupied the vacant niche. It is their products that currently meet the requirements of consumers, while Russian enterprises are making efforts to restore the industry. Import substitution is quite effective, but there are nuances.

The revival of machine tool construction
While domestic manufacturers are increasing the production of machine tools, consumers have to buy them in China. Over the year, the share of imports increased to 43.25%, and the production of machine tools in Russia increased by 2 times over the year. But the industry is still far from fully recovering.

"Metalworking machines in Russia are assembled mainly from imported components. Our machine tool industry has not been ours for a long time, and it almost does not exist. These are ridiculous attempts to show that we did it ourselves," said Leonid Khalfun, General Director of I. Rumyantsev MPO.
The sanctions pressure has created attractive conditions for expanding production. And Russian manufacturers quickly took advantage of this, as evidenced by the production figures. The output of metalworking machines increased from 4,877 units (2021) to 6,706 (2022). Consumption during the same period increased from 19,489 units (machines and KPO combined) to 25,573.

Two years ago, domestic engineering provided up to 47% of the market, and by the end of 2022 — up to 64.5%. The data were published at the National Metalworking Forum NMF-2023.

How is demand being met
It will take time for the industry to develop, but for now it is obvious that consumers cannot wait. That is why the departure of Western machine tool manufacturers is accompanied by a sharp increase in purchases from China.

Demand for domestic machine tools increased sharply in March 2022, as imports from Japan, Europe and the United States declined. Shipments from Taiwan and China have also increased, as these countries offer relatively affordable goods. The share of Chinese products increased to 43.25%, and Taiwanese products — to 15.45%.

The products of the departed Western partners in the domestic market have been replaced by Chinese goods, conquering consumers with their cheapness.

"In China, VAT is not 20%, as in Russia, but 13%. In China, loans for industrial enterprises are given not at 10-15%, but at 1% per annum. Electricity is cheaper there. Here, the price of the metal is determined on the stock exchange in London. It is twice as high as the metal should be worth objectively. And China lives in a different way. Machine builders get metal there much cheaper than in Russia. Therefore, a bulldozer imported from China is sold 30% cheaper than a bulldozer produced in Russia," Konstantin Babkin, head of the Rosspetsmash Association, emphasizes.

Measures to support industrialists
Russia is taking all measures towards full import substitution, especially to support industrialists who have something to strive for.

The CEO of NAMI F. Nazarov believes that the bias in the domestic machine tool industry should be based on advanced technologies in order to get ahead faster. When our own production is fully strengthened, then we will be able to free ourselves from the shackles of imports. The Russian market has huge opportunities for growth and quite sufficient potential to cover the needs of the country.

The production of machine tools in Russia has just begun to gain momentum, so in the near future consumers will be able to use Russian machine tools" ( https://dzen.ru/a/ZJge1CO1IUTlhk84?ysclid=ly7geltlvl658212843 )

[Stefan Kotsch]

Just now, Roman Alymov said:

Meanwhile Russian machine tools industry is booming

Ok. 😊

[Roman Alymov]

5 minutes ago, Stefan Kotsch said:

Within just 4 years? We know what problems there were in replicating simple thermal imaging devices..

30 years of colonial status got consequenses, but at least first steps are taken now. 

[Stefan Kotsch]

 

Vladimier Serebrenniy, Rector of Moscow State Technical University:

'The current situation can be viewed as “extremely sad”

https://mashnews.ru/stankostroenie-v-rossii.-s-chego-nachinaetsya-texnologicheskij-suverenitet.html

 

 

 

[Stefan Kotsch]

13 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

30 years of colonial status

They didn't come as colonial masters. You invited them to Russia and you gave them a warm welcome.

Russia was well on its way. We have achieved a lot together and much more could have been achieved. Russia has everything it needs to be a successful, rich industrial state. Good education, good skilled workers, a developed industrial base, raw materials. But Putin stood in front of the map and dreamed of a 1,000-year Reich. And you happily waved the colorful flags and pennants.

It was your wish that it would happen the way it did.

Edited July 4, 2024 by Stefan Kotsch