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The Kremlin is burning?


X-Files

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OMON Riot police have surrounded Wagner PMC headquarters in Molkino. Wagner troops have taken defensive positions. Helicopter armed with gatling guns dispatched to the area. This base is shared with GRU 10th Separate Special Purpose Brigade. Guess which side they're on.

And

#Belarus Pro-Lukashenka propagandists are completely lost. They say that they don't understand what's happening in the Prigozhin vs the defence ministry drama. Crucially, they mention that it would demotivate Russian troops on the ground. Yeah, even propagandists understand

Edited by Markus Becker
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I still suspect it's some kind of charade to make fundamental changes to official policy. At any rate, now that Putin has called the Wagnerites traitors on national TV, he has clearly hitched his waggon to the establishment vs. the "let's wage a better war" side.

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I cant see it. Because Prighozin is Putin's man, and if he is officially challenging the narrative for why the war was fought, he is also challenging Putin's narrative. He basically said the President has been lying, and the real cause for the war is two idiots that he employed. Which is bad enough. if you believe the Putin narrative, its another guy he employed who is the bad apple. :D 

Whichever way you look at it, its difficult to believe this enhances Putin's position worth a damn. All it does is highlights that he hires complicit idiots, and one of them is no longer complicit.

If this was a put up job, it would have ended long before Rostov.  If you march towards Moscow, there is the danger he may give others the same idea. This is after all the President who famously minimised the 1917 revolution celebrations, for fear it might give others the same idea.

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Sometimes... sometimes I think we tend to overthink Russia. Sometimes what something appears is precisely what it is. The 1991 coup was explained by conspiracy theorists as a put up job by Gorbachev to clear the decks. But it wasnt.

After all, what does Prighozin get out of this? I struggle to believe he is going to go to Moscow, kiss Putins ring, and everything will be as it was before. Someone is going to get punished, the safety of the regime demands it.

Edited by Stuart Galbraith
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No way in hell it's staged, and I'm not saying that because we already have casualties on both sides - Russians never cared about such details. Even if it doesn't go any further it has already undermined the state and Putin personally.

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Well, my reasoning was that "putting down the rebellion" would be a warning and the starting block for cracking down on any criticism that the government is too lax on the aims and prosecution of the war in preparation for an agreement, ceasefire or even retreat from Ukraine. But I fully concede I might very well overthink it, and it's actually a real power struggle, or just Prigozhin's giant ego, or just honest wrath about the situation. After all we've been all conditioned to think in conspiracies over the last two decades, much of it emanating from Russia ...

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25 minutes ago, BansheeOne said:

Well, my reasoning was that "putting down the rebellion" would be a warning and the starting block for cracking down on any criticism that the government is too lax on the aims and prosecution of the war in preparation for an agreement, ceasefire or even retreat from Ukraine. But I fully concede I might very well overthink it, and it's actually a real power struggle, or just Prigozhin's giant ego, or just honest wrath about the situation. After all we've been all conditioned to think in conspiracies over the last two decades, much of it emanating from Russia ...

Oh, its been longer than that. Black Wind White Snow talks about the end of the USSR, and every other discussion was a conspiracy theory. The most popular one being Gorbachev organized the August coup, and this or that minister was vying for supremacy. And of course back before that we had 'kremlinology', where everyone outside the USSR was trying to interpret a funeral as if it was a herald of things to come. So yes, we have been knee deep in conspiracy theory for decades now, its what Russia does best, lord love them.

Just idle thinking on my part, Putin is in a bind here. He can send down the OMON forces (HOMO tee hee hee) forces from Moscow. But then he leaves himself vulnerable to anyone else that might want to displace him, either Army or FSB. Or he can start peeling off units from the forces in Ukraine. But then that weakens his position during the counter offensive, and the Ukrainians still havent been throwing in their full forces yet.

Maybe there are adequate forces on hand from National Guard units to deal with it. But with a 25000 man ex convict force, backed up by a Spetsnaz brigade of some 2000-3000 men, you may wish them luck with that job. National Guard  didnt exactly look particularly elite with their operations in Ukraine.

I think the most likely thing to happen, Wagner is going to sit there, nominally isolated, but with nobody going forth to tackle them.   Prighozhin says if nobody from the ministry of defence comes and speaks to him, he is going to march on Moscow. But of course many have tried, and most have died....

Edited by Stuart Galbraith
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3 minutes ago, RETAC21 said:

Into the WHAT THE FUCK??? department

The revolution will be televised. And livestreamed, too.

I note that outlets and web sources spouting official Russian narratives are in dire need of instructions.

Edited by BansheeOne
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4 minutes ago, X-Files said:

Showoff. How about some translation and/or context?

Rybar hasn't done an English map version this time, probably because it's too embarrassing. The fun part is of course that after doing meticulous situation updates on the frontlines in Ukraine for 16 months, they're now tracking the march of Russian mercenaries on Moscow. I'm interpreting the "temple" icons to be Wagner units, and the barrier symbols to be roadblocks by loyalist forces.

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Indeed, my Russian is rusty but the bottom one is Units of the Wagner group, the arrows, Wagner columns, the barriers are roadblocks and the temples are government buildings, HQ and such

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