The non-non-counterfactual Taliban history from The Middle East War

[RETAC21]

The other side of the Middle East is in flames

https://www.hindustantimes.com/videos/world-news/taliban-clash-with-irans-military-using-missiles-artillery-machine-guns-at-border-watch-101685196066953.html

[ink]

With a bit more context, from AP:

https://apnews.com/48324a0cdc9158713a39edae7460cd5e

[Der Zeitgeist]

What a fascinating modern age we live in.

[RETAC21]

44 minutes ago, ink said:

With a bit more context, from AP:

https://apnews.com/48324a0cdc9158713a39edae7460cd5e

It's water rights, Opium traffic, different flavors of Islam, tribal and ethnic rivalries, Pakistan about to fall apart and China in the background. The very definition of dumpster fire on a nuclear scale. And for once, the "West" has nothing to do with it.

[ink]

4 minutes ago, RETAC21 said:

It's water rights, Opium traffic, different flavors of Islam, tribal and ethnic rivalries, Pakistan about to fall apart and China in the background. The very definition of dumpster fire on a nuclear scale. And for once, the "West" has nothing to do with it.

Sure does look like becoming a sh!tshow. But the West having nothing to do with it is a bit of a stretch - if for no other reason than 20 years of blundering about in Afghanistan.

[Der Zeitgeist]

Just now, ink said:

Sure does look like becoming a sh!tshow. But the West having nothing to do with it is a bit of a stretch - if for no other reason than 20 years of blundering about in Afghanistan.

At least the Humvees are getting some good use. 

[DB]

21 minutes ago, ink said:

Sure does look like becoming a sh!tshow. But the West having nothing to do with it is a bit of a stretch - if for no other reason than 20 years of blundering about in Afghanistan.

The main difference is the military resources left behind. I'm fairly sure that the Afghans would have been shooting at each other throughout the entire period with or without our "help". A plague on both their houses.

[ink]

6 minutes ago, DB said:

The main difference is the military resources left behind. I'm fairly sure that the Afghans would have been shooting at each other throughout the entire period with or without our "help". A plague on both their houses.

Huge counterfactual. There's no knowing what Afghan or regional politics would look like without US intervention. Abandoned military kit is just one element to look at but there are, of course, oh-so many others... Not least of which is opium production.

Edited May 28, 2023 by ink

[KV7]

1 hour ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

What a fascinating modern age we live in.

It's not so strange considering the history. IIRC Iran offered to invade Afghanistan after 9/11. 

[RETAC21]

58 minutes ago, ink said:

Sure does look like becoming a sh!tshow. But the West having nothing to do with it is a bit of a stretch - if for no other reason than 20 years of blundering about in Afghanistan.

After which, it quit Afghanistan and left the whole place to its own devices. The Taliban where there before, remember?

[Mighty_Zuk]

Afghanistan was never a single coherent entity. I have no idea why it was even treated as an independent country. Should have been split among all its more stable neighbors. Under the Taliban it's perhaps at its historical peak of unity, and even that is an absolute shit show.

But for now, I wish both sides the best of luck.

[bojan]

7 minutes ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

Afghanistan was never a single coherent entity. I have no idea why it was even treated as an independent country...

And there it goes...

[ink]

2 hours ago, RETAC21 said:

After which, it quit Afghanistan and left the whole place to its own devices. The Taliban where there before, remember?

I'm sad to say that, yes, I'm old enough to remember that.

Still think it makes no sense to say that anything happening there has nothing to do with the West.

[ink]

15 minutes ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

Afghanistan was never a single coherent entity.

Always worth remembering, when making statements like this, that most countries started out as nothing like single coherent entities. That doesn't mean they should now be dismembered.

[RETAC21]

2 hours ago, ink said:

I'm sad to say that, yes, I'm old enough to remember that.

Still think it makes no sense to say that anything happening there has nothing to do with the West.

Ok, so what does the West have to do with:

- Iranian drought: nothing

- Taliban running out of money: nothing

- Religious strife: nothing

- Ethnical differences: nothing

- Opium trade: nothing

At most, you can say that the current unpleasantness happens because the US is not present to keep the cork on all of the above, but that's what the locals wanted.

[ink]

43 minutes ago, RETAC21 said:

Ok, so what does the West have to do with:

- Iranian drought: nothing

- Taliban running out of money: nothing

- Religious strife: nothing

- Ethnical differences: nothing

- Opium trade: nothing

At most, you can say that the current unpleasantness happens because the US is not present to keep the cork on all of the above, but that's what the locals wanted.

In the two decades the US and its allies ran Afghanistan, opium production grew almost continuously and reached unprecedented levels. Now, maybe that's not enough to make you wonder about some things, but it's enough for me. Not to mention that it was the US that let the Taliban back in by being generally useless and incompetently managing the country.

Also, if you break into and ransack someone else's country, leaving it a basket case, probably for generations, you don't get to just walk away going "oh well" and pretending like nothing happened. Morally, at least, the shit that goes down after your departure, falls on your head too.

In the end, the US defeat in Afghanistan has left behind a country that is highly volatile and will continue to be a source of regional instability for a long time.

[RETAC21]

7 minutes ago, ink said:

In the two decades the US and its allies ran Afghanistan, opium production grew almost continuously and reached unprecedented levels. Now, maybe that's not enough to make you wonder about some things, but it's enough for me. Not to mention that it was the US that let the Taliban back in by being generally useless and incompetently managing the country.

Also, if you break into and ransack someone else's country, leaving it a basket case, probably for generations, you don't get to just walk away going "oh well" and pretending like nothing happened. Morally, at least, the shit that goes down after your departure, falls on your head too.

In the end, the US defeat in Afghanistan has left behind a country that is highly volatile and will continue to be a source of regional instability for a long time.

So that means the USSR is responsible, not the West... but of course, the USSR invaded Afghanistan because the locals were turning it into a basket case.

Unless double standards, one each, you know...

[ink]

14 minutes ago, RETAC21 said:

So that means the USSR is responsible, not the West... but of course, the USSR invaded Afghanistan because the locals were turning it into a basket case.

Unless double standards, one each, you know...

Can't two foreign invaders share the burden off responsibility? I definitely do not think the USSR is (was) an innocent bystander in the whole tale. The US was, however, the occupying power both more recently and for longer.

[Stuart Galbraith]

The Taliban, emerging from Pakistan, are arguably an invading foreign power. Isis certainly are.

[Mike1158]

The Taliban are apparently picking on the Iranians as their next target.    https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/advocacy-group-iran-taliban-fight-border-afghanistan-sound-99647995

[RETAC21]

26 minutes ago, ink said:

Can't two foreign invaders share the burden off responsibility? I definitely do not think the USSR is (was) an innocent bystander in the whole tale. The US was, however, the occupying power both more recently and for longer.

Only if you cinically want to blame the West no matter what.

Damned if they occupy the country and damned if they leave it.

[RETAC21]

17 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

The Taliban, emerging from Pakistan, are arguably an invading foreign power. Isis certainly are.

No, definitely not, at best you can say that they are the local tool of a foreign power, but they are definitely Afghan, just like Afghan was the Army that didn't want to fight them when they came to power.

[urbanoid]

1 hour ago, ink said:

In the two decades the US and its allies ran Afghanistan, opium production grew almost continuously and reached unprecedented levels. Now, maybe that's not enough to make you wonder about some things, but it's enough for me. Not to mention that it was the US that let the Taliban back in by being generally useless and incompetently managing the country.

Also, if you break into and ransack someone else's country, leaving it a basket case, probably for generations, you don't get to just walk away going "oh well" and pretending like nothing happened. Morally, at least, the shit that goes down after your departure, falls on your head too.

In the end, the US defeat in Afghanistan has left behind a country that is highly volatile and will continue to be a source of regional instability for a long time.

Yeah, because it totally wasn't a basket case before. They were never a refuge for Al-Qaeda or anything like that, right? If anything, the West was totally unable to fix it, which was... actually expected.

[Stuart Galbraith]

 

[Mighty_Zuk]

7 hours ago, ink said:

Always worth remembering, when making statements like this, that most countries started out as nothing like single coherent entities. That doesn't mean they should now be dismembered.

You got the chronology wrong. There was nothing uniting Afghanistan since basically forever, before the Taliban took over. Regarding all these separate tribes with no real aspirations for national unity as a single coherent country was just recipe for disaster. The people of Afghanistan, as all people everywhere, deserve a government, but whatever was before the Taliban, it wasn't that. The US came closest, but even that wasn't enough. It all fell apart once they were left to stand on their own.

I don't know how the Taliban runs the country now, whether they're able to unite it or not. If they are, I'd consider them a partially legitimate government, albeit one that should be under sanctions.

It matters very little how nations start their path. As long as there's something uniting the people as a nation, they have the right to self determination, but if you can explain how Afghanistan had that, I'd be happy to learn something.