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Pax Americana vs Pax Sinica vs Multipolar World


Strannik

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I'm taken back to what I suspected.. Using the Samurai Helmet as symbol of Japan but to say things that are obviously against Japan's interests and obviously pro-CCP China so as to present to others that the traditional view of Japan as broadly being in-step with the US is changing to something in which that traditional view comes to doubt, thus make fertile ground to marginalize or break it via disinformation. 

https://www.tanknet.org/index.php?/topic/39564-chinas-peaceful-rise/&do=findComment&comment=1625572

I think this is a more accurate hat

Screenshot_20230524-090303~2.png

 

Although, I wouldn't want to submit it as a form of demonizing the Chinese communists. Rather I think there could be a path for current PRC and Japan to make better mends without going into mud slinging at past ancesters. Afterall, look at the US internal mud slinging regarding various domestic issues. It's a little less reassuring to have to posture in relying on the US to led as it had during, say, the 1980s. But the way I see Pro-CCP style propaganda towards things like Taiwan or the South China Sea, then it leaves too little space for that path. A style that just bluntly attempts to steam roll through counter pointsas if inconsequental, just trying to wave the jedi hand enough times to the point that suddrnly the listening believes, perhaps believes is also partly compelled by a reality point of greater PRC power. But when the inflation of power demonstration id easy to see, and so often easy to see by its repetition and its lack of care to take into account cognitively sound counterpoints, then its just distrust. *yawn*

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17 minutes ago, futon said:

I'm taken back to what I suspected.. Using the Samurai Helmet as symbol of Japan but to say things that are obviously against Japan's interests and obviously pro-CCP China so as to present to others that the traditional view of Japan as broadly being in-step with the US is changing to something in which that traditional view comes to doubt, thus make fertile ground to marginalize or break it via disinformation. 

https://www.tanknet.org/index.php?/topic/39564-chinas-peaceful-rise/&do=findComment&comment=1625572

I think this is a more accurate hat

Screenshot_20230524-090303~2.png

OMG, this is precious - the flavor of paranoia I never seen before, I have to preserve it 🤣

Edited by Strannik
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Well, glad you found humor in it. But the post does serve to remind that your posts have not reflected anything what could be expected from one that has a Saumrai helmet as an avatar.

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A number of countries are switching to local currencies in their transactions - good for them. I don’t see why that is problematic or important. No one is rushing to adopt the yuan except for Russian, because it has been rather forced to. The Chinese will never release the controls it keeps on the yuan due to fears of capital flight and therefore it will never be the dominant currency.

Lets see where Chinese economic growth is at end of decade when ten million workers have been subtracted from its labor force.

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6 minutes ago, Josh said:

A number of countries are switching to local currencies in their transactions - good for them. I don’t see why that is problematic or important.

All these "printed" $$$$$ will have less places to go - higher and constant US inflation.

Other benefits for the participants:  diversified risks, strengthening of  national currencies, increasing monetary policy independence, and reduced vulnerability to US sanctions. 

Edited by Strannik
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both the “unipolar” moment of the US and the economic dominance of the G7 are history. True, the latter is still the most powerful and cohesive economic bloc in the world. It continues, for example, to produce all the world’s leading reserve currencies. Yet, between 2000 and 2023, its share in global output (at purchasing power) will have fallen from 44 to 30 per cent, while that of all high-income countries will have fallen from 57 to 41 per cent.

China’s share will have risen from 7 to 19 per cent.
 

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For some emerging and developing countries, China is a more important economic partner than the G7: Brazil is one example. 

 

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19 countries have apparently applied to join the Brics, which already include Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. When Jim O’Neill invented the idea of the Brics back in 2001, he thought this would be an economically relevant category.

I thought the Brics would be about just China and India. Economically, that was right. But the Brics now seem to be on the way to being a relevant worldwide grouping. Clearly, what brings its members together is the desire not to be dependent on the whims of the US and its close allies, who have dominated the world for the past two centuries.

 

 

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26 minutes ago, Strannik said:

All these "printed" $$$$$ will have less places to go - higher and constant US inflation.

Other benefits for the participants:  diversified risks, strengthening of  national currencies, increasing monetary policy independence, and reduced vulnerability to US sanctions. 

These transactions are not at a level where de-dollarization is particularly imminent or harmful. See previous posts concerning historical dollar reserves. For the dollar to take a double digit ding from where it is now, some other basket currency would have to pick up the slack. It is hard to picture what that currency would be - euro? pound? yen? All have as much or more risk than the dollar, IMO. And the Yuan we have already covered.

IMO, right now the US dollar is the man with one eye in the kingdom of the blind: the US is hardly in a great position politically and to some extent economically, but no one else is in a position to replace it.

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38 minutes ago, Josh said:

 For the dollar to take a double digit ding from where it is now, some other basket currency would have to pick up the slack. It is hard to picture what that currency would be - euro? pound? yen? All have as much or more risk than the dollar, IMO. And the Yuan we have already covered.

BRICS is set to debate a new currency alternative to the US dollar during its August summit in Johannesburg South Africa 

 

  

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2 hours ago, Josh said:

A number of countries are switching to local currencies in their transactions - good for them. I don’t see why that is problematic or important.

Outside my pay scale too, but as a general rule of thumb I don't like the squandering of an advantage for no reason.  When Trump handed Biden the keys to the WH in 2020, the US dollar was the reserve currency.  Now this is eroding, and I wonder whether Democrats are simply pretending that errors are not errors because of who is making them, rather than by objectively deciding whether it was a good thing to lose reserve currency status.

The alternative policy, perhaps one followed by a competent president, would have been to not allow the war in Ukraine to threaten  the reserve currency status of the dollar regardless of the desire for sanctions.

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These transactions are not at a level where de-dollarization is particularly imminent or harmful

Noted, but the concern here is that the trend away from the dollar seems to be gathering steam, not slowing down.

Edited by glenn239
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2 hours ago, Strannik said:

BRICS is set to debate a new currency alternative to the US dollar during its August summit in Johannesburg South Africa 

 

  

Hah, well that should be a lively debate!

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1 hour ago, glenn239 said:

Noted, but the concern here is that the trend away from the dollar seems to be gathering steam, not slowing down.

Again, what are you going to switch to? We've excluded all existing candidates as either already being too western/controlled or else being too China controlled. The BRICS effort seems interesting; I hadn't heard of it. But I have my doubts that group of countries can come together on such an arrangement - getting China and India to agree on setting up a third currency seems like an uphill climb. And if it is adopted, do other major trading economies adopt it or does it simple replace Rupees and Yuan's transactions and wrap up there, leaving most currencies untouched? China has the moxie to theoretically attempt to force transaction in such a currency but that seems more likely to simply push some countries away from trade with China rather than cement a system that is supposed to be about independence and not control.

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  • 2 weeks later...

MBS ups the ante vis-a-vis the US:

After President Biden vowed to impose ‘consequences’ on Saudi Arabia for slashing oil production last year, Mohammed bin Salman privately threatened to sever ties and retaliate economically, according to a classified U.S. intelligence document

 

 

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